To Cross the River by Feeling the Way with the Touch of Stones
Tuesday, 31. October 2006, 05:26:06
Orville Schell, dean of the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism, has made a speech (China Thinks Long-term, But Can It Relearn to Act Long-term?) in a seminar at The Long Now Foundation last month. The distinguished journalist has written nine books on China.
The brief of his seminar at LNF's web said that he has "exceptional insight on what the media and Washington policy-makers have missed in thinking about what China may do in the coming years and decades, and how, and why..." I expect that he'll give us some insights on the questions of what, how and why.
So, I go download his recorded speech. I was a little disappointed. His talk and Q&A were a bit lame. Orville displays two contradictory pictures of China, with facts. One is a "Robust China", the other is a "Brittle China". The only comment he made on his findings is that China doesn't know where she's going to. Deng adopted, and the regime is still adopting the pragmatic (or fuzzy) approach of "To Cross the River by Feeling the Way with the Touch of Stones", to run their country on a trial-and-error basis.
But, is the other side of the river not the destination, China is heading to? So to speak. And, as a matter of fact, Deng projects that it will be a "Xiaokang" society, or a relatively affluent society. According to what he previousely targetted upon, it's US$1,000 per capita GDP, as a figure of speech, and it's been reached.
However, statistics shows that the distribution of wealth look far beyond average citizen's expectation. The Hu-Wen duo is now fostering "a harmonious socialist society", as stipulated in the latest party communique.
Hu has named the "special interest group" in the plenum. It's something that the party will have to edge out. Corrupted party/government officials are part of this bloc. The high-profile pull-down of Shanghai's Chen Lianyu and his gang is an act to warn all hidden monkeys. The nationwide anti-graft war will also help to reshuffle the central committe, which are comprised of central and local governors, in order to inject new blood for a so-to-speak "cleaner party/government".
As an one-party ruled nation, China is sorting things out in its own way, sadly though that it's not via democratic means. The duo is set to resolve social contradictions and conflicts by calling for a more even distribution of wealth, a better social security system and a more sustainable (and less environmentally disrupted) socio-economic development model. A new line-up of techocrats is a prerequisite to exercise new measures.
I anticipate that a more centralized party rule will come as a result of that. A comparatively controlled open society with citizen participation in certain areas will be tried out. It's a kind of group therapy for its discontented populace.
The blogosphere will also be carefully monitored as to filter out the alleged subversive propaganda. But, netizens will certainly be able to play around with it. Afterall, internet is the last resort for discontent conveying in a massive scale.
"China is an unresolved nation of consequence" as Orville said, but which other nation isn't, including the US. Nontheless, is it not to improve the wellbeing of its people, a prime objective of any nation in the world?
The brief summary of Schell's talk is as follows. The MP3 can be downloaded here (Size:10M, last for an hour or so).
The brief of his seminar at LNF's web said that he has "exceptional insight on what the media and Washington policy-makers have missed in thinking about what China may do in the coming years and decades, and how, and why..." I expect that he'll give us some insights on the questions of what, how and why.
So, I go download his recorded speech. I was a little disappointed. His talk and Q&A were a bit lame. Orville displays two contradictory pictures of China, with facts. One is a "Robust China", the other is a "Brittle China". The only comment he made on his findings is that China doesn't know where she's going to. Deng adopted, and the regime is still adopting the pragmatic (or fuzzy) approach of "To Cross the River by Feeling the Way with the Touch of Stones", to run their country on a trial-and-error basis.
But, is the other side of the river not the destination, China is heading to? So to speak. And, as a matter of fact, Deng projects that it will be a "Xiaokang" society, or a relatively affluent society. According to what he previousely targetted upon, it's US$1,000 per capita GDP, as a figure of speech, and it's been reached.
However, statistics shows that the distribution of wealth look far beyond average citizen's expectation. The Hu-Wen duo is now fostering "a harmonious socialist society", as stipulated in the latest party communique.
Hu has named the "special interest group" in the plenum. It's something that the party will have to edge out. Corrupted party/government officials are part of this bloc. The high-profile pull-down of Shanghai's Chen Lianyu and his gang is an act to warn all hidden monkeys. The nationwide anti-graft war will also help to reshuffle the central committe, which are comprised of central and local governors, in order to inject new blood for a so-to-speak "cleaner party/government".
As an one-party ruled nation, China is sorting things out in its own way, sadly though that it's not via democratic means. The duo is set to resolve social contradictions and conflicts by calling for a more even distribution of wealth, a better social security system and a more sustainable (and less environmentally disrupted) socio-economic development model. A new line-up of techocrats is a prerequisite to exercise new measures.
I anticipate that a more centralized party rule will come as a result of that. A comparatively controlled open society with citizen participation in certain areas will be tried out. It's a kind of group therapy for its discontented populace.
The blogosphere will also be carefully monitored as to filter out the alleged subversive propaganda. But, netizens will certainly be able to play around with it. Afterall, internet is the last resort for discontent conveying in a massive scale.
"China is an unresolved nation of consequence" as Orville said, but which other nation isn't, including the US. Nontheless, is it not to improve the wellbeing of its people, a prime objective of any nation in the world?
The brief summary of Schell's talk is as follows. The MP3 can be downloaded here (Size:10M, last for an hour or so).
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