Politics

From what I'm hearing on the ground and from Nebraska and Colorado is that there is ZERO chance of Obama carrying these. For some numbers, look at the Feb caucus where Obama took it 68% to 32%. In the May 13th non-binding primary, Obama won 49% to 46%. Either his numbers are tanking horribly or caucuses aren't a valid way to gauge voter preference. Some may argue that non-binding primaries don't mean anything. That same argument may be used for polls. But these are people that came out even though they knew it did not count. That leads one to believe that these people have firm commitments for their candidates. When people do things even when they don't have to, that shows true intentions. And you can bet they will vote in November.

So what is going on with Obama's numbers? No doubt they are tanking. I can no longer put CO, NM or FL in Obama's column. It's simply not realistic. And I never did put NE in Obama's column because I knew that was not realistic. If I put it in his column, I'd have to give Hillary the same chance as Obama. This goes for VA, NC & SC as well where they are polling identical in one case and nearly identical in others. I have doubts with Obama's capability to carry OH & PA, but we'll leave them alone for now.

Let's take a look at IA and WI.

On April 27 & 28, Obama was polling with these numbers against McCain.

IA: Obama vs. McCain: 49% vs. 41% (Obama +8%) (Research 2000)
WI: Obama vs. McCain: 47% vs. 43% (Obama +4%) (U of WI)

On May 7th for WI and May 15th for IA.

IA: Obama vs. McCain: 44% vs. 42% (Obama +2%) (Rasmussen)
WI: Obama vs. McCain: 43% vs. 47% (McCain +4%) (Rasmussen)

Obama went down 6% in IA and went down 8% in WI.

Yes, some of this can be due to different methodologies. But note that Rasmussen regularly polls Obama higher than reality. If you'll also note that there have been no recent polls in FL for a very long time. This is no coincidence. There are indications that neither Democrat has a really good chance of carrying that state because of the delegate removal fiasco. Hillary has a long shot. But Obama has no shot at all.

Let's see what Obama's map looks like today.



If you'll note, Obama must carry all blue and red leaning states alike. To compare, let's look at what I said his best case scenario was on May 9th, 2008.



CO & NM are gone, but he could afford to lose those at the time. The last poll for Colorado was on April 19th, 2008 by Rasmussen. He was leading McCain 46% to 43% with 11% undecided. This was back when Texas was a toss up and FL was within reach. There is nothing to indicate that he can take this state or has a better chance than Hillary. I'm looking for a realistic scenario here. There is nothing trending Obama's way.

Let's look at that first map again.



Here is why Obama has such a slim chance in November. Look at what he needs to carry. Let's give him WI, MI & OH. What happens if things continue to trend the way they are for McCain in Iowa? Here's a map I had put out there on May 9th, 2008 for McCain to keep in mind that represents exactly that.



This map actually has 20 more electoral votes on Obama's side than the previous map. But McCain has the magic number. I can't stress the importance of the above map enough.

It's no coincidence that the above map and how Obama is polling are so similar. I didn't predict this map because I knew anything others did not. It's because it's standard knowledge to anyone looking at electoral maps. There's a reason the same states are always fought over. Look at the battleground states in 2004. Here's where each party spent money.

From Wikipedia:



On the left are the number of visits by Presidential or Vice-Presidential candidates. On the right is how much money spent by both parties. Kerry lost Iowa AND Ohio AND Florida.

All signs indicate that Obama is heading towards an electoral map worse than Kerry.

What is more troubling is that the Democratic leadership seems oblivious as to why a lot of people don't like Obama within the ranks of Democratic voters. Obama is insulting his own party and his own party's voters. He's equated the Clinton administration to that of Bush for the reasons as to why the economy is bad. Obama's campaign doesn't seem to realise that the reason many people are Democrats is because of Bill Clinton. Another reason people are insulted is because Obama's campaign and the media have wrongly accused both Bill and Hillary of being racist. Not only that, but it's become a rite of passage to be wrongly accused of being a racist for anyone who supports Hillary. Whatever Obama has planned, it sure isn't winning.

Another reason why Obama will lose is the same reason John Kerry lost. He's too elitist. Unfortunately, the Democratic leadership doesn't get it. They can't. That's what makes them elitist in the first place. If they weren't elitist, they would have dropped Obama like a hot potato. And to hard working Americans, nay humans, it's perfectly clear if you're an elitist or not. There's no mistaking it. And it's political suicide to be one because you have no idea what is wrong. In fact, an elitist believes that he (or she) is correct. That's what makes it even worse.

Here's how you can tell if you're elitist.

• If you believe that people will come around even though they are telling you they won't, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you believe you know better than the people themselves as to why they don't vote for you, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you think using terms like "typical white people" are perfectly fine and you don't have enough respect to keep your own grandmother out of the national discourse, then you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you think being an elitist has anything to do with money, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you think that personal associations aren't important to voters, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you think that associating with political fixers and unrepentant terrorists makes for a good presidential candidate, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you think wearing your own country's lapel pin isn't a symbol of patriotism, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you believe that the only possible reason people don't vote for you is because of racial attributes, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you don't see how you anger voters when you tell them what they are going to do, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you believe you can carry red states with the help of a segment of the population that has always been on your side in previous elections, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you think delegate counts mean squat in the general election, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If your opponent within your own party is beating you in swing states, yet you believe you are the stronger candidate in November, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you think insulting your own party's only two term Presidential administration of the last 40 years is a way to unite the people, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you think blaming your own party for the Iraq war is a smart political move against the Republicans, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you think calling voters illiterate and racist won't be used by your November opponent, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you think people can't make the connection between Black Liberation Theology and the fact that this is about the liberation from the evil white people and you still wonder why white people won't vote for this candidate, you just might be an elitist.
  
• If you only look at delegate count and not the popular vote or how the Electoral College will shape up in November for getting a win, you are probably best friends with John Kerry.
  

This is an elitist's electoral map. It just happens to be what Kerry got and is better than what Obama is getting now with a few differences. Obama will never get NH. And Obama is not polling too well in WI, MI and OH.



So far, the Democratic Party has not presented the road to victory. I seriously don't think there is one. Any scenario where Obama wins is based on wishful thinking and pure speculation. This isn't about bashing Obama. It's about his path to victory. And it also has NOTHING to do with Hillary. If he wants to win, he needs to show how he's going to do it. If super delegates don't take a serious look at this, they'll be the ones to blame. All this information is available now.