Politics

Also look at Kentucky. No recent polls from there either. The last SurveyUSA poll was from April 17th. Hillary was only 2% behind McCain. Obama did not break 30%. So I will not put this one in the safe Republican column.

Next are the leaners. What Rasmussen did was take averages. If we look more closely, we see that Obama is actually pulling down Hillary's numbers. Anyhow, we have to look at the actual numbers. I didn't just take them as they are listed because some of them are clearly in the wrong section. And New Jersey is leaning McCain for both candidates. All other polls have this in the safe Dem column, so I'll put it there too. If McCain wins NJ against both candidates, then Democrats may as well stay home. Ohio is out of whack too. Polls for New Hampshire are the most recent from University of New Hampshire on May 3rd, 2008.

Frankly, I don't know why anyone would believe their electoral count as is since a lot of important states haven't been polled in quite a while. There are more exceptions later on but first let's put in all the safe states in.



Looks good, doesn't it? Unfortunately for Obama, all those states except for Colorado are within Hillary's reach. But Obama doesn't fare as well. Let's take a look at his electoral map.



Obama didn't gain any safe Democratic states, but McCain sure gained safe Republican states. McCain will start off 21 electoral votes away from the magic number. I don't personally think Obama can take Colorado or New Mexico, but it matters little. The above map is and always has been his best case scenario if all leaners go his way. He'd have 289 with a 19 electoral vote buffer. Note that Ohio has 20.

About the polls, Kansas polls from today show that neither candidate has any hope there. This is where Obama's mother is from yet Obama polls MUCH MUCH worse than Hillary against McCain.

Now is the part I wanted to talk about. The new polls show something interesting for Hillary. Washington is now safely in Hillary's column exactly as I had predicted. Her numbers have been going up in Oregon and I saw no reason Washington wouldn't go up too. Now we have numbers to back up that prediction. She is leading McCain by 5% while Obama leads by 11%. Obama is holding steady (-1%). Iowa is still the same. Obama leads by 2% and Hillary is behind by 3% against McCain. Not much to talk about there.

And finally we have Arkansas. This is the poll I've been waiting for. Earlier polls had shown both candidates to have no chance here. Yet, this is where Hillary lived when Bill was governor of the state. Surely, she could be competitive here. And rightly so. The new numbers coming out of Arkansas have her leading McCain with 53% to 39% (+14%). It's safely in Hillary's column exactly as predicted. For Obama, it's the complete opposite with him losing to McCain 33% to 57% (-24%).

Hillary now has two states that are clearly in her column that Obama cannot possibly get. We're talking about West Virginia and Arkansas. I'm still waiting to see polls from Kentucky. If the demographics are similar to West Virginia, Hillary should have a very good chance here as well.

Here is Hillary's map.



She's already winning. Not only that, but look at the incredible amount of states where she is competitive in. Some of the other polls have her ahead or tied in some of these states. Take away Florida and she still has a very good chance of winning the White House. She needs 18 electoral votes in this case. If my prediction that she does well in Kentucky against McCain holds true, then she only needs 10 electoral votes. WI or MI is enough by itself. Some polls have her tied in MI. And in MO, she's only 2% behind McCain.

Hillary has a best case scenario of 341 electoral votes. That's a 71 vote buffer. Compare that with Obama's 19 vote buffer (w/o CO & NM, it's a 5 vote buffer).

I'm not sure what the superdelegates are thinking, but I sure hope they have a path to victory if they go with Obama. I hope this path is based on reality and not wishful thinking. Hillary has a path backed up with real numbers from a polling company that generally has her numbers lower than actuality. Her numbers are holding steady or moving up. Obama's numbers are going down everywhere. And he has no states that are opening up for him where he has a clear advantage over Hillary.

In the future, polls I'm looking for are CO, NM, MO, NY, NJ, KY, MA, OH and FL. These are states, other than MO, that superdelegates should watch if they're going with Obama (or thinking of doing so). There are indications that Obama may be heading toward critical conditions in some of these states. And that's the bigger story. Obama has no room to maneuver. Hillary has plenty. She's competitive in a great deal many states that Obama simply has no chance (WV, KY, AR, MO, NH) and is polling MUCH higher in Ohio.