Politics

Let's compare from before.

Best case on May 16, 2008
Hillary: 342
Obama: 283

Best case today May 26, 2008
Hillary: 355 (+13)
Obama: 293 (+10)

So their best case scenarios have both gone up about the same. But Hillary's best case is 62 electoral votes better than Obama. That's a colossal amount.

And now, let's look where they stand with swing states. We'll show May 16 maps and then the current one.

Hillary on May 16, 2008:



And Hillary today May 26, 2008



On May 16, she was at 279 safe EV with all leaners going to McCain. Today, she has 301 safe EV, 318 with Michigan. Hillary has moved up 22 safe EV while McCain's leaners have gone from 62 to 37 EV.

Change:
Safe Dem: 279 to 301 (+22)
Lean Dem: 0 to 0 (no change, +17 w/ Michigan)
Lean Rep: 62 to 37 (-25)
Safe Rep: 197 to 183 (-14)

Total:
Dem: +22 (+39 w/ Michigan)
Rep: -39
Change: + 61 Dem (+78 /w Michigan)

For Obama on May 16, 2008:



And Obama today May 26, 2008



On May 16, he was at 221 safe EV with 21 leaners. McCain had 47 leaners. Today, he has 218 safe EV and 28 leaners. The most noticeable thing is that Obama has put New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire safely in the Dem column, but has lost Pennsylvania in doing so. That's not a safe way to keep your numbers the same. This has the possibility for disaster in coming weeks or months. Obama's numbers are very volatile and are not consistent. That should be troubling news for the Obama camp if they wanted to build on the work they've done during the primaries.

Change:
Safe Dem: 221 to 218 (-3)
Lean Dem: 21 to 28 (+7)
Lean Rep: 47 to 47 (no change)
Safe Rep: 249 to 245 (-4)

Total:
Dem: +4
Rep: -4
Change: +8 Dem

Hillary has gained +61 to +78 against McCain compared to Obama with +8.

This should show yet again how Hillary's numbers just keep improving. Obama has gained a few states, but the most critical is his dwindling numbers in Pennsylvania. Look at today's numbers for that state.

PA:
Hillary vs. McCain: 50% to 39% (+11 Hillary)
Obama vs. McCain: 45% to 43% (+2 Obama)

Something is brewing in Pennsylvania. SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac and Susquehanna all had his numbers at +7 last week. Did something happen? Or is it simply different methodology? Quinnipiac has his numbers down from +9 four weeks ago to +6 last week. Time will tell if these downward numbers are statistical noise or not. The overall trend across the nation is about the same. Obama did gain NH and NM, but so did Hillary. Hillary also gained Kentucky where Obama cannot compete.

ALL of the states where Obama is competing, Hillary can compete there as well. Colorado may be the only place where Obama does better. I'm still waiting for new polling from Iowa. But for Hillary, she has the following states as clear wins where Obama has no chance:

WV, KY, FL, NV & AR.

That's a 51 Electoral Vote advantage right out the window for Obama. He cannot get these.

In swing states not mentioned, Obama does better in IA & CO (16 EV). Hillary does better in OH & PA (41 EV).

In every respect, Hillary does better. There is nowhere that Obama has a clear advantage that would make him the better candidate in November. There is a clear trend upwards for Hillary by significant amounts. There is still Tennessee that I'd like to see polls for. For Obama, he can't go much lower than he's already at. If he does, it'll be a 40-some state landslide for McCain. He might keep HI, IL, VT & DC. He's been holding somewhat steady overall, but his numbers in swing states leave much to be desired. When you have problems in ALL of FL, MI, WI, OH, PA, this is not a good sign for the future. Not to mention when you have no hope in WV, KY & AR.

There is clear resistance to Obama. The southern states will not go to Obama under any circumstance. His best hope is Virginia and I don't see that happening unless something miraculous happens. Even with Virginia in his column, the prospects aren't looking good. Where is he going to get his electoral votes? With Hillary, you can take away FL and she still wins even without IA, MI & WI. Today, Obama still loses.

When it comes to the nomination, the easiest path to the White House should be your only goal. Who can win the easiest? Who has the electoral votes to bring home the victory? Again, that's Hillary. Maybe Obama can do it. But why take the difficult route when there's a candidate that is winning now? That is something no mainstream pundit is discussing and I'd like to know why.

Some final numbers where they both stand against McCain today.

Obama: 246 LOSE
Hillary: 301 WIN

It's not very complicated. If anyone has an electoral map that is based on facts where Obama does better than Hillary, I'd like to see it. So far, it doesn't exist and has NEVER existed. In fact, it's getting worse. You always want someone on the upswing going into the General Election. That can only happen with Hillary. Since March, she's also gotten 500,000 more votes than Obama. A presumptive nominee has no business losing that many votes coming down the home stretch. This is exactly why there are superdelegates. It is their job to make sure they pick a winner in November. Delegates count for NOTHING in November. If you need to choose between delegates or actual votes, always chose on the side of votes. That's also why Michigan and Florida being seated is so important. Their votes will count either now or in November. But if they don't count now, don't count on them in November.

The ultimate question is this.

Why would anyone choose Obama over Hillary to compete in November?

Delegates aren't a reason. They count for nothing in the General Election. Can't be votes. Hillary has the popular vote. Can't be swing states. Hillary leads in most and Obama can't compete in Florida. Can't be opening up new states for Democrats. Only Hillary does that with WV, NV, AR & KY (and maybe TN). It seems I'm missing something because there isn't one single advantage to having Obama as the nominee over Hillary. Something's very wrong when a candidate like Obama is losing the electoral vote when it's supposed to be an easy win for Democrats.

She wins. He loses. That's the story.