Politics

More than anything, trends are what shape any election. Once you're set in a trend, it's very difficult to get out of it. Right now, Hillary has made a new name for herself and has found new support. Obama's numbers have started to dwindle, but perhaps he can still win if the trends are his way. Let's see what the numbers show.

First, let's look at some SurveyUSA matchups between Obama and McCain. Too bad they did not do matchups between Hillary and McCain, so I can't use these polls in my maps. However, it would be unwise to disregard any information we can get our hands on.

Here are three polls:
Virginia 49% for Obama to 42% for McCain
California 49% for Obama to 41% for McCain
Pennsylvania 48% for Obama to 40% for McCain

At first sight, these numbers look great for Obama! Unfortunately, those aren't the only numbers in those polls. There's a whole list of options if Obama and McCain had picked VP's. Guess what? Obama loses or is in a dead heat in ALL cases except if Obama picks Edwards as VP. Edwards already ran as VP, so I'm not even sure Edwards is a viable choice. Although the numbers look good, it's a very risky move considering what happened in 2004. Then again, maybe Obama doesn't have a choice. Who else has enough name recognition to boost his numbers? (And no, not Hillary) Usually, people don't care about VP choice. But this year is different. There are enough people, both Republicans and Democrats, who dislike whatever nominee will end up on the ballot that VP choice will make a difference. What kind of weird situation is it that Obama's running mate is likely to kill his chances in November?

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Recent polls are showing trouble for Obama. His numbers are tanking at an unprecedented rate. As of late, a poll from ccAdvertising shows that Obama's numbers are way worse than any one of us thought. This company is mostly used by the GOP, but they have shown to be more accurate than other polls in the past. Still, I don't use these numbers in my map, but there's a point to be made after you see these numbers.

From May 1, 2008 through May 5, 2008, ccAdvertising completed a survey to a combined total of 90,000 homes in California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania (10,000 homes from each state) extracted from the ccAdvertising database.

Results for McCain vs. Hillary and McCain vs. Obama.
Scores are how much Hillary or Obama are ahead of McCain.
+is a win for Hillary or Obama.  -is a loss.

              Hillary  Obama    Difference (for Obama from Hillary)
California    +15.82%  +12.88%  -2.94
Colorado      -5.44    -1.98    +3.46
Florida       -11.46   -25.52   -14.06
Illinois      -2.29    +9.23    +11.52
Missouri      +3.97    -10.61   -14.58
New Hampshire -5.9     -6.67    -0.77
New York      +7.88    +1.31    -6.57
Ohio          +1.02    -18.18   -19.2
Pennsylvania  +7.51    -5.95    -13.46

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