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荒诞者共和

ABSURDIST REPUBLIC

Posts tagged with "Economy"

Will America's Sub Prime Woes Hurt Asia?

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Dr. Enzio von Pfei
Asia Sentinel
07 August 2007


For a long time we have been telling our clients that The Economic Time™ in America is worsening. We thus have been wrong for a long time in telling them to not invest in America, but rather in other places where The Economic Clock™ is signaling good buying opportunities.

Therefore, the recent shakeout in America is of no surprise to us. As an American squawk box commentator magnanimously observed about himself, he has called six of the last two US market crashes. So have I. Let's hope that I am right this time around.

What is different this time is how deeply the sub-prime news has embedded itself into investors’ consciousness. A lemming-like effect is taking place. Sadly, once the lemmings are shaken and turn, and the longer they turn, the more momentum picks up in that direction. Thus, a bear market in America has just begun.

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The US Market’s Pyramid of Lies

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Philip Bowring
Asia Sentinel
10 August 2007


Wall Street's dissembling greed threatens us all.

lies Sack Henry Paulson. Liquidate Goldman Sachs. Call Alan Greenspan to account. End Moody’s rating franchise. Arrest a few dozen salesmen of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). Those should be the correct responses to the chaos roiling western financial markets and beginning to have a knock-on effect on an otherwise soundly placed East Asia.

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The global financial crisis: Where we go from here

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Dr. Enzio von Pfeil
Asia Sentinel
20 August 2007


Reality has set in and panic will run for a while. But remember that every asset is being tarred with the same brush. As one wise owl just put it, the fire sale is occurring because fund managers have to raise money in order to finance clients' redemptions.

One asset class that is undergoing the fire sale is commodities. And this, along with various Asian markets, will rebound sharply once value has been created. Subscribers know when we feel - yes, feel, not think! - that this will occur. It is tough to put a time frame on panicky emotions, back to Prof. Kindleberger's marvelous anatomy of a crash.

China has not stopped growing because of sub-prime, CDO, SIV or ABCP strudels in Texas and Frankfurt, Germany. Nor have her Olympics been canceled. Nor has her 17th Party Congress. Nor has growth in India been stopped because of America's Countrywide Financial Corpse. The Economic Time™ in Korea will not worsen because of US and European financial convulsions, either!

This implies that the commodity sell-off is more about fire sales than about growth concerns. All of which implies that this asset class will do particularly well in the rebound.

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The Tragedy of China’s Coal Industry

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Asia Sentinel
19 August 2007


China’s coal-mining accidents have their roots in greed and corruption.

The United States has been grimly transfixed since August 6 by the deaths of six coal miners killed in the state of Utah and the subsequent death of three more miners who tried to rescue them. Hour-by-hour reports have been issued on national television networks, and opposition has been building in the US Congress to the entire coal industry.

But while that drama plays itself out in the US, China, with far too many local officials with financial stakes in coal mines, has long outstripped the rest of the world for underground deaths. By one estimate, 13 miners die every day in China. Officials put the deaths at 4,726 in 2006, although the Beijing Times earlier this year estimated that more than 7,000 miners were killed the same year in mine explosions, cave-ins, and flooding, compared to 43 who died in the United States during the same year. So far, officially, 1,792 miners have died in 1,066 mishaps in the first half of 2007.

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China Debates Green GDP and Its Future Development Model

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Wenran Jiang
The China Brief Volume 7, Issue 16
Jamestown Foundation
2007-08-08


“Green GDP” has been the new catchphrase in the Chinese media and political discourse in the past few years. China’s State Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) jointly released China’s first Green GDP report in 2006, which measures the country’s GDP performance against the cost of resources and the impact on the environment. It concludes that a limited calculation of pollution alone cost 3.05 percent of China’s GDP in 2004 [1]. The widely reported new method of assessing China’s growth, however, will be relegated to simply an exciting start; Beijing recently announced that the much-anticipated Green GDP report for 2005, completed last year, would now be shelved indefinitely.

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China Blames Global Warming for Recent Weather Woes

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Monica Liau
Worldwatch Institute
August 9, 2007


China Watch is a joint initiative of the Worldwatch Institute and Beijing-based Global Environmental Institute (GEI) and is supported by the blue moon fund.

Chinese authorities say global warming is to blame for the extreme weather conditions that have afflicted the country this year, Reuters reports. Summer floods have killed more than 700 people across 24 provinces and displaced an estimated 5 million more. In other provinces, drought has left more than 8 million people short of water. Because China has both limited water resources and a large population living in reclaimed flood zones, droughts and flooding are annual problems. But experts say sustained weather events like those experienced this year are abnormal and likely to worsen in the coming years.

“One of the reasons for the weather extremes this year has been unusual atmospheric circulation brought about by global warming,” said Song Lianchun, head of the China Meteorological Administration’s Department of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation.

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China Postpones Release of Report on ‘Green’ GDP Accounting

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Ling Li
Worldwatch Institute
July 31, 2007


China Watch is a joint initiative of the Worldwatch Institute and Beijing-based Global Environmental Institute (GEI) and is supported by the blue moon fund.

The release of a landmark 2005 Green National Accounting study that calculates the environmental costs of China’s rapid economic development has been “postponed indefinitely,” according to Wang Jinnan, the head of the study group. Wang told China Youth Daily last Monday that disagreement between the two government departments that authored the report—China’s State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)—over what to include and how to release this information was a major reason for the report’s delay. He noted that several participating local governments had also expressed reluctance in publicizing the data.

The goal of Green National Accounting, also known as Green Gross Domestic Product (Green GDP) accounting, is to measure the “true cost” of economic growth by deducting the costs of natural resources depletion and environmental degradation from traditional GDP calculations. But economists in China and elsewhere have faced a variety of methodological challenges in developing this approach, which has made the concept more attractive in theory than in practice.

Starting in 2004, SEPA and NBS launched a series of pilot projects in green GDP accounting in some 10 provinces and municipalities across China—at a time when no country in the world was using such an accounting system. According to the first official report, released last September, China’s economic losses from environmental pollution in 2004 totaled some 511.8 billion yuan (US$67.7 billion), or roughly 3.1 percent of GDP. But this represented only part of the true cost of environmental damage, the authors noted, due to limitations of technologies and data. A complete green GDP accounting system requires calculating costs of resource depletion and ecological damage that cannot typically be monetized, they said.

Earlier this month, NBS head Xie Fuzhan announced that the so-called “green GDP accounting system” in fact does not exist because there is no international standard available for the measurement. Xie also stressed that the Chinese government will continue with efforts to develop the accounting system. Wang, the study’s leader, however, believes that despite the deficiencies of the existing system, the reported results still provide a useful indication of China’s current environmental situation. He says the report’s publication would help local officials better understand the “hidden” costs of environmental degradation behind the nation’s rapid economic growth.

China’s Economic Engine Forced to Face Environmental Deficit

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Wang Jiaquan
Worldwatch Institute
July 26, 2007


China Watch is a joint initiative of the Worldwatch Institute and Beijing-based Global Environmental Institute (GEI) and is supported by the blue moon fund.

For years, eastern China’s Jiangsu province has proudly led the rest of the country in economic production. With a population of 74 million, the province’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) leapfrogged from US$1,000 in 1996 to US$3,038 in 2005, making it the first province to exceed the US$3,000 mark, five years ahead of schedule. With merely 1 percent of China’s total land area, Jiangsu claims 15 percent of the country’s overall industrial output and 10 percent of its GDP.

But the country’s leading economic powerhouse is now forced to face its own environmental woes following a sudden outbreak of algae in Taihu Lakein southern Jiangsu. The algae bloom cut off the tap water supply to more than 2 million people in Wuxi City in late May.

In early July, a top provincial official called on the industrially booming region to sacrifice its GDP growth in order to balance the “green” deficit it owes to China’s third largest freshwater lake. After a series of intensive, high-profile efforts by the central government to address the lake’s pollution, Jiangsu Provincial Communist Party Secretary Li Yuanchao urged local officials to spare no efforts in cleaning up the water body, even at the cost of economic growth.

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China's Environmental Crisis

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Carin Zissis
Council on Foreign Relations
February 9, 2007


Introduction
What has China’s economic boom done to the environment?
What are some of China’s major environmental challenges?
How has the Chinese public responded to the environmental threat?
What has China done to improve the situation?
Is China’s national environmental agency an effective watchdog?
Which government agencies monitor the environment at the local level?
What is the role of local non-governmental organizations?
What role does the international community play in China’s environmental policy?
What is the U.S. position on China’s environmental troubles?
What impact has the 2008 Olympics had on China’s environmental policy?


Introduction

The familiar story of China's economic boom keeps headline writers busy with gross domestic product (GDP) growth hitting 10.7 percent last year. Its booming economy, however, has brought a concurrent environmental crisis. Sixteen of the world's twenty most polluted cities are in China. Beijing's pledge to host a “Green Olympics” in the summer of 2008 signals the country's willingness to address its environmental problems. But with less than two years until the summer games, the country does not look likely to meet its environmental goals.
What has China’s economic boom done to the environment?

China's economy has grown tenfold since 1978, and the focus on development over the environment has led to widespread environmental degradation. “China has gone through an industrialization in the past twenty years that many developing countries needed one hundred years to complete,” says Pan Yue, the deputy director of China's State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA), in a report for Germany's Der Spiegel. But Elizabeth C. Economy, a CFR senior fellow and expert on China's environment, says the argument that China is experiencing the same growing pains as any other industrialized nation “fundamentally mischaracterizes” the issue. The "scale and scope of pollution far outpaces what occurred in the United States and Europe” during their industrial revolutions, she says. Moreover, China's environmental woes have hurt its economy. The damage to the ecosystem costs China about 9 percent of its GDP, according to the United Nations Development Program.

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China's Environmental Challenge: Political, Social and Economic Implications

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Elizabeth C. Economy
Council on Foreign Relations
January 27, 2003


Testimony before the Congressional Executive Commission on China
Roundtable on the Environment


China's spectacular economic growth-averaging 8% or more annually over the past two decades-has produced an impressive increase in the standard of living for hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens. At the same time, this economic development has had severe ramifications for the natural environment. There has been a dramatic increase in the demand for natural resources of all kinds, including water, land and energy. Forest resources have been depleted, triggering a range of devastating secondary impacts such as desertification, flooding and species loss. Moreover, poorly regulated industrial and household emissions and waste have caused levels of water and air pollution to skyrocket. China's development and environment practices have also made the country one of the world's leading contributors to regional and global environmental problems, including acid rain, ozone depletion, global climate change, and biodiversity loss.

Environmental degradation and pollution in China also pose challenges well beyond those to the natural environment. The ramifications for the social and economic welfare of the Chinese people are substantial. Public health problems, mass migration, forced resettlement, and social unrest are all the consequence of a failure to integrate environmental considerations into development efforts effectively.

This does not mean that the Chinese leadership is ignoring the challenge of environmental protection. Both as result of domestic pressures and international ones[1], China's leaders have become increasingly cognizant of the need to improve the country's environment. The State Environmental Protection Administration and other relevant agencies have tried to do as much as they can, establishing an extensive legal framework and bureaucratic infrastructure to address environmental concerns. However, China's environmental bureaucracy is generally weak, and funding and personnel levels remain well below the level necessary merely to keep the situation from deteriorating further. Without greater support from Beijing, the regulatory and enforcement regimes also remain insufficient to support implementation of the best policies or technological fixes.

Much of the burden for environmental protection, therefore, has come to rest outside of Beijing and the central government apparatus. Responsibility has been decentralized to the local level, with some wealthier regions under proactive mayors moving aggressively to tackle their own environmental needs, while other cities and towns lag far behind. The government has also encouraged public participation in environmental protection, opening the door to non-governmental organizations and the media, who have become an important force for change in some sectors of environmental protection. The international community-through bilateral assistance, non-governmental organizations, international governmental organizations, and most recently, multinationals-has also been a powerful force in shaping China's environmental practices.

Still, much remains to be done. The particular mix of environmental challenges and weak policy responses means that the Chinese people cannot yet claim several basic rights: the right to breathe clean air, to access clean water, to participate in the decision-making process on industrial development or public works projects that affect their livelihood, and to secure justice when these rights are violated.

Without greater attention and commitment from the center, China's environment is likely to continue to deteriorate throughout much of the country, causing further social and economic distress domestically and levying even greater costs on the environmental future of the rest of the world.

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