Musings

While taking a break from serious blogging, I have been pondering the validity of the famous Drake equation that suggests the possibility of many technical civilizations in our galaxy. I have determined that the equation is seriously flawed.

Sorry to disappoint you UFO fans, but facts are fact; as far as we know there is only one: Ours. And, it is highly improbable that ours arose at all. These are the pieces of evidence that has led me to this conclusion:

1. Our solar system exists in a relatively ‘quiet’ arm of our spiral galaxy, far away from the dense and chaotic packing of stars, gases and debris as you near the galactic core. High-powered x-ray bursters, supernova, black holes, clouds of anti-matter & noxious gases, and a presently quiet supermassive black hole at the galactic center make this region of the galaxy largely uninhabitable.

2. Life in the form of RNA/DNA prototypes, viruses, and single cell organisms are likely widespread in space due to Panspermia, and here on Earth, evidence shows that these life forms arrived and took hold almost as soon as the lava lake crust of creation solidified and cooled down a tad. Yet, it took over three billion more years for the first multi-cellular life forms to arise.

3. There is evidence that our own moon was responsible for a lot of the evolutionary impetus that led from bacteria to critters that established the ‘Tree of Life’ or ‘Genera’ as the biologists call it. If your planet does not have a moon in a similar orbit and creating tides in a large body of water, perhaps such evolution is not possible. In additon, it seems that organic life is only possible if it is based on an atom of carbon or silicon.

4. Even though we live in this ‘quiet’ galactic region, our outer solar system, consisting of the remnants of its formation (the Oort Cloud and Kupier Belt), is filled with millions of objects capable of cracking open our planet like an egg; all they need is a little orbital nudge from a passing black hole, rogue star, or glob of “Dark’ matter. It will happen, given enough time.

5. It is well-known that life on Earth, from protoplasm to humans shares two characteristics: (a) eat and be eaten, and (b) multiply like crazy to fill all available Eco-niches. In our case, it took 4.5 billion years of a stable terrestrial environment to arrive at ‘intelligent’ Humans. Because a technical civilization can only survive by squelching the forgoing tendencies, it is doubtful that such a civilization will endure for long. Look at present social conditions (religious wars, nukes, bioweapons, etc.) and a rapid poisoning of the environment.

6. As we know, it is enormously expensive to engage in space travel, and to go exploring the stars will require the resources of a multi-planet solar system. While individual planets may exist in the so-called habitable zone around a given star, it had better have additional planets that are accessible to support the venture.

7. In our case, we may never sustain our level of technology for long enough to go space-faring due to impact events. There is growing evidence that our planet gets slammed by comets or meteors capable of devastating a continent, and causing massive extinctions or the collapse of nascent civilizations on the rest of the surface about every 10,000 years.

8. The urge to explore outer space and try to communicate with others out there may be a unique attribute of Humans. It also may require a clear enough atmosphere to see the stars, comets, and planets to arouse interest in the first place.

9. The fact that we have mastered the electromagnetic spectrum and still are unable to detect any other technical civilization in our galaxy supports the notion that only one per galaxy exists at any given time.

10. If the instance of one per galaxy holds throughout the universe, there may be millions, but a proven method of extra-galactic communication and travel, perhaps through ‘hyperspace’, would be required to stimulate investment of time and resources in the enterprise of contact and cultural exchange in the first place.

So, the Drake equation must be refined. Once the true probabilities are confirmed, a lot of people are going to feel very foolish, and Hollywood will go broke.

The threat of severe flash floods made my friend and I beat a hasty retreat from our wilderness explorations in Utah’s Colorado Plateau. You do not want to be caught up in a desert flash flood, even on horseback, much less in a ruggedized 4WD.

We did not reach our ultimate destination: a fabled ‘lost’ cache of artifacts from a pre-Colombian North American civilization. We did, however, find an old Indian turquoise mine and a ‘Glory Hole’ on the southern end of the little-explored Kaiparowits Plateau, and not too far from the north rim of the Grand Canyon.

Richard and I are getting a little too old for this adventure stuff, and I learned quickly that I no longer do so well at strenuous hiking in 100 degree F. desert sunshine. Then the storms blew in and gave us some much-needed respite from the heat. Our first campsite was above Scorpion Flat at about 6500 ft. altitude.

This country is as wild as it gets in Utah. Mountain lions and other critters are still unafraid of man, and roam at will seeking meals of opportunity. Fortunately, we were not on the menu during our visit. During the next day, we collected a few specimens of petrified wood and explored hidden side-canyons that fell away from the top of the plateau toward the Petrified Forest, and the Colorado River system.

We also explored the south flank of Mt. Ellsworth in the Henry Mountains---the last mountain range in the lower 48 states to be mapped and explored (around 1870). These mountains contain the largest herd of free-roaming Bison in the United States.

My trusty Dodge Ram truck got us where we needed to go when we ran out of old prospecting roads (trails, actually) and we avoided patches of quicksand and the terrifying drop-offs of 2,000 ft. or more, on some of the very steep pitches we traversed. Setting up camp was a high-speed, Syncromesh operation designed to get us into our camp chairs and a fresh bottle of Tequila as fast as possible. Of course, it rained on us every night, and we elected not to setup tents and so forth, opting to pitch a tarp over our sleeping and dining area.

This little expedition was not intended to be filled with photo opportunities, but I did setup a new album in my photos section of this blog that contains some of the pictures that I took, if you have an interest.

It has been shown in history that psychological warfare is often more effective than bombs and guns in obtaining concessions from an enemy. Witness the Taliban agreement that was forced on Pakistan regarding the Swat valley, which they promptly reneged on.

In addition, the ruling religious hierarchy in Iran uses this technique on the general population in Iran by stymieing the political opposition to their dictates through intimidation and selected acts of violence.

Well, it seems to me that we in the West are not keeping up in this contest of wills because intimidation is spotty and our threats ring hollow. It is time to use the proven tool of psychological warfare and obtain the upper hand in our negotiations with extremists.

For example, I think this fellow would be an excellent choice for our ambassador to Pakistan:

Imagine how effective he would be when he said, “The United States is NOT PLEASED with your progress in the tribal regions. I’m here to help!”

With respect to our nuclear weapons reduction negotiations with Russia, I think this guy would have a lot of credibility with the Russian negotiation team:I am sure that the Russians, seeing this guy on the other side of the table, would be eager to reduce our mutual stockpiles of Nukes as fast as possible.

Now, as for Iran; I think we need a special effort with the Islamic clerics and President Ahmadinejad. This fellow would do the trick!:
He would make a short, opening remark at the conference: “You are really starting to piss us off; Do you really want Israel to occupy your oil fields while you hide in your bomb shelters?”

And, of course, we can’t forget the turmoil in Sudan and Somalia. I’d bet the warlords and fugitive President Bashir would listen carefully to our new representative’s demands:


Lastly, why boycott the U.N. Human Rights Commission? We all know they are a bunch of deceitful, conniving reprobates. Let’s send this fine fellow to set them straight:

As my readers know, I am pretty picky when it comes to what I consider fine art. Well, if you don’t know already, there is an English artist named Julian Beever who started doing 3D works on local pavements using only chalk. These drawings are created using a projection technique called Anamorphosis and appear to defy the laws of perspective.

I consider this man a great artist with a vivid imagination and wonderful craftsmanship. In addition to the 3D art, Beever paints murals and replicas of the works of masters and oil paintings, and creates collages.

Here are a couple of representative images of his efforts. It is too bad that they are temporary in nature:



And, here is a short video of him in action:


Of course, my favorite artist of all time is the American, Thomas Cole. I’ll close this post with one of his best works, ‘The Garden of Eden':
I put this in my 'Photos that I love' album so you can see the exquisite detail of this very large canvas that Cole painted in 1828