Random thoughts about the future
Saturday, 19. July 2008, 03:42:28
I have been sitting around changing the boring banner and avatar for my blog, and contemplating the near term future. By this I mean the next 200 years. I thought I would pass along to my readers the outcome of ten associated thought experiments and my conclusions for your consideration. Many of the ten scenarios have been explored in science fiction novels and movies, but I consider them to have the highest probability of occurring in reality.
Feel free to add to this list with your own thoughts in the comments section (I found the exercise to be fun, and you will too! Please be rigorous in your analysis)
1. Although I am unlikely to be able to participate, young people alive today will be able to choose to extend their life spans by hundreds of years. A form of immortality will also be a choice.
2. The coming struggle for global resources, including food, water, and energy, will reduce the human population to a manageable size, and an agreed upon homeostasis will maintain the birth/death ratio at 1:1 (The absolute number will rise as we expand throughout the Solar System).
3. The next great struggle for the human race will be involved with the rise of self-replicating intelligent machines. If we are lucky and prevail in this conflict, we will do so through transforming ourselves into a type of cyborg, or perhaps a program embedded in a machine that mimics our present physical form.
4. We will consume all of the available fossil fuels on the planet while we learn to power the energy-hog industries vital to civilization on Earth through the use of giant Masers positioned 22,000 miles above the planet (Geothermal is not an option, as we need plate tectonics to continue to recycle and refresh the Earth’s surface. Besides, wide-scale use would change the climate, as will wind-power).
5. Before we Terra-form the planets, we will stabilize the orbit of the Moon (currently receding).
6. We will travel to the stars, and populate their planetary systems, but not in biological form.
7. We will all become geniuses and great artists. ‘Music’ will be composed that includes controlled auditory and visual stimulus of our brain waves and sensory apparatus.
8. The eating of food and sex acts will be considered archaic forms of entertainment.
9. The fossil record of Genus Homo will end abruptly.
10. The biggest long-term problem of the future will be that of boredom.
Mars in the not too distant future
Photo courtesy of NASA
Feel free to add to this list with your own thoughts in the comments section (I found the exercise to be fun, and you will too! Please be rigorous in your analysis)
1. Although I am unlikely to be able to participate, young people alive today will be able to choose to extend their life spans by hundreds of years. A form of immortality will also be a choice.
2. The coming struggle for global resources, including food, water, and energy, will reduce the human population to a manageable size, and an agreed upon homeostasis will maintain the birth/death ratio at 1:1 (The absolute number will rise as we expand throughout the Solar System).
3. The next great struggle for the human race will be involved with the rise of self-replicating intelligent machines. If we are lucky and prevail in this conflict, we will do so through transforming ourselves into a type of cyborg, or perhaps a program embedded in a machine that mimics our present physical form.
4. We will consume all of the available fossil fuels on the planet while we learn to power the energy-hog industries vital to civilization on Earth through the use of giant Masers positioned 22,000 miles above the planet (Geothermal is not an option, as we need plate tectonics to continue to recycle and refresh the Earth’s surface. Besides, wide-scale use would change the climate, as will wind-power).
5. Before we Terra-form the planets, we will stabilize the orbit of the Moon (currently receding).
6. We will travel to the stars, and populate their planetary systems, but not in biological form.
7. We will all become geniuses and great artists. ‘Music’ will be composed that includes controlled auditory and visual stimulus of our brain waves and sensory apparatus.
8. The eating of food and sex acts will be considered archaic forms of entertainment.
9. The fossil record of Genus Homo will end abruptly.
10. The biggest long-term problem of the future will be that of boredom.
Mars in the not too distant future
Photo courtesy of NASA
#1 and #2 appear incompatible.
#3 You've been reading too much Sci-Fi, David.
#4 Ocean wave power will be the answer.
#5 Are you saying the moon is gonna crash into the earth? I never heard that before. Golly!
#6 In what form, exactly, are we gonna do this, Dave?
#7 I'm already a genius and I don't particularly care about music.
#8 Not in my house.
#9 Fire? Flood? Tell me.
#10 What else is new.
S.
By Sabrina3363, # 19. July 2008, 14:43:45
Thanks for the visit and your always astute comments. In response, I offer the following:
#2 assumes you are one of the lucky survivors
# 3 is detailed extensively on Kurzweil's "Singularity" website
# 3a I haven't read any scifi since A.C. Clarke's "Childhood's End" (tells you how really ancient I am!)
#4 The sun is the ultimate source of free, clean energy. Wavepower is a good choice as an interium source (except if you are a surfer!)
#5 Actually, the moon is drifting away. It was largely responsible for life on Earth, and many organisms need the tides for sustenance and reproduction.
#6 Likely we will be electromechanical Humanoids (no spacesuits needed), and if we need to resume our biological form, we crank up the frozen DNA & start cloning
#7 I knew you were a genius, therefore, you should listen to J.S. Bach with your mathematical mind--it will change your view of music!
#8 Arrrggh! You make me want to give up my cyborg yearnings!
#9 This happens when we give up our poorly designed biological housing
#10 If you have arrived there already, I can help you relieve the ennui!
By Ravo, # 19. July 2008, 15:45:10
In my opinion all are far fetched except for #9.
Thanks for the suggestions and the trip.
By devans186, # 20. July 2008, 17:49:35
My speculations are based on the fact that science, technology, and innovation in general have growth curves that became logarithmic in nature a few decades ago. Synergies between disciplines abound. The only variables in my scenario, in my view, are the time line, our ability to maintain the acceleration of these curves through the food/water/energy wartimes, and the fact that many will choose to remain biological entities while others chomp at the bit to shuck our feeble bodies. Bifurcation of the human race in this fashion could commence as soon as 2050.
By Ravo, # 20. July 2008, 18:04:59
just kidding
most your thoughts, well, also Mars in the not too distant future, we all ever have thought about, but here I just want to tell, that on recent Science, there were serieses of news about life on Mars research. they are interesting!
By kiyoshi, # 21. July 2008, 14:52:44
Thanks for your kind comments! If life is discovered on Mars, and it is not related in any way to life on Earth, then it presents us with our first interplanetary moral dilemma: Do we colonize/contaminate Mars with life from Earth, or do we allow its evolution to proceed on its own? Maybe nothing but bacteria will ever evolve there, but who knows? The Universe appears to have an additional lifespan of 8 billion years +.
By Ravo, # 21. July 2008, 16:37:44
P.S. I never understood the big deal about Mars! Folks should equally aspire to visit Scotland
By Wakajawaka, # 21. July 2008, 18:46:56
I'm glad you like the changes to my blog! I agree about Scotland, which I enjoyed visitng very much..... I want to go golfing at St. Andrews someday.
By Ravo, # 21. July 2008, 23:40:51