A Forecast?
Monday, December 29, 2008 4:51:19 PM
According to an article by Andrew Osborn that appeared in the Wall Street Journal today, Russian academic Igor Panarin is predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
Now, I hate to disagree with the distinguished professor, but I must say, “HOGWASH!”
Everyone in Russia is currently dreaming of restoring Russia to its former glory under the old Soviet Union. It is totally understandable that they feel this way, given the wrenching transformations the country has experienced since 1990. And, envy and distrust of America abounds.
But it is folly for anyone to think that Russia or any other country can climb to the pinnacle of world power on the carcass of the former sole superpower. Sorry, but if the U.S. economy tanks, so does everyone else’s. If there is civil disorder in the USA, it will spread everywhere, like Smallpox.
Sociology is a discipline that has challenged the Russians since the days of the Czars. Just look at the problems it created for the hard science of Genetics in Russia. So, to hear a prognostication about sociology in the USA from a Russian academic, I must first put on my Bullshit Goggles.
Now, I can give the good professor a different vision, because I do in fact, keep things in focus here in Ravo’s blog.

As the Arctic sea ice retreats, Alaska will become more and more of a tourist destination. More and more illegal aliens will move there from the lower 48 states, as job opportunities will abound. Cruise lines will increase traffic across the short route from Europe, and Siberia will develop a problem with illegal immigration from Latin and Central America. Russia was thoroughly subverted by the United States many years ago, with the introduction of an auto industry. Now, with an oil-based economy, more roads and cars will follow. In this boom time, not much will be left over to build tanks and armored personnel carriers.
And lastly, Americans are, if nothing else, pragmatic. We will deal with our problems as we always have---planning for the worst, while hoping for the best.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
Now, I hate to disagree with the distinguished professor, but I must say, “HOGWASH!”
Everyone in Russia is currently dreaming of restoring Russia to its former glory under the old Soviet Union. It is totally understandable that they feel this way, given the wrenching transformations the country has experienced since 1990. And, envy and distrust of America abounds.
But it is folly for anyone to think that Russia or any other country can climb to the pinnacle of world power on the carcass of the former sole superpower. Sorry, but if the U.S. economy tanks, so does everyone else’s. If there is civil disorder in the USA, it will spread everywhere, like Smallpox.
Sociology is a discipline that has challenged the Russians since the days of the Czars. Just look at the problems it created for the hard science of Genetics in Russia. So, to hear a prognostication about sociology in the USA from a Russian academic, I must first put on my Bullshit Goggles.
Now, I can give the good professor a different vision, because I do in fact, keep things in focus here in Ravo’s blog.

As the Arctic sea ice retreats, Alaska will become more and more of a tourist destination. More and more illegal aliens will move there from the lower 48 states, as job opportunities will abound. Cruise lines will increase traffic across the short route from Europe, and Siberia will develop a problem with illegal immigration from Latin and Central America. Russia was thoroughly subverted by the United States many years ago, with the introduction of an auto industry. Now, with an oil-based economy, more roads and cars will follow. In this boom time, not much will be left over to build tanks and armored personnel carriers.
And lastly, Americans are, if nothing else, pragmatic. We will deal with our problems as we always have---planning for the worst, while hoping for the best.









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Anonymous # Monday, December 29, 2008 5:17:03 PM
Angelikiellinidata # Monday, December 29, 2008 6:14:52 PM
W00t!!!! I have a European Union citizenship!! things are not so bad after all!
and yes,
you and Robin are welcome in my Greek house,
garden in the back yard and all!
I love you David
DavidRavo # Monday, December 29, 2008 6:19:19 PM
I used to be an enthusiast of Zen, starting in the 1950's. Later, I discarded it as a child would discard an old toy. Mysticism is mysticism, regardless of the store front trappings. There are no 'Eastern' or 'Western' mindsets, only individuals that come in all shades of gray.
It is easy for me to admit that much of the universe is beyond my comprehension. I don't feel threatened by this at all. I am a part of it. In the meantime, I'll use the tools at hand to build on what I know. You should reconsider your view of the 'Self'. The self is the platform--the peaceful center, from which we organize and evaluate our sensory inputs. It is necessary to make sense of the things we remember.
DavidRavo # Monday, December 29, 2008 6:20:50 PM
Thanks for the visit. You DO have cable in your home, don't you??
Angelikiellinidata # Monday, December 29, 2008 6:26:16 PM
darn it all these predictions will make me drink double this New Years Eve!
Anonymous # Monday, December 29, 2008 6:46:02 PM
KYrenKYren # Monday, December 29, 2008 7:27:40 PM
David I am a fan of your blog.
Russian academic you are an idiot.
DavidRavo # Monday, December 29, 2008 7:27:49 PM
Have a toast for me!
Hi going within,
Of course humans change, and can only be referred to in terms of the moment. Having spent years immersed in Quantum Electronics, and Quantum Electrodynamics, I can attest to the tenuous nature of three-space. One only has to look at a Tunnel Diode in operation to see this (much more satisfying than trying to develop a third eye!). Buddhism is merely another label--in this case, for the balancing act between the supernatural and the natural worlds that humans seem to love to perform. I think that this is a result of the willing suspension of disbelief.
In the end, disbelief has a lot of survival value, and is the only rational basis from which to build a consensus view of reality.
DavidRavo # Monday, December 29, 2008 7:36:35 PM
I'm humbled that you read my blog with any regularity. Thanks for your support. I should say, though, that no one is an idiot--there are simply different levels of enlightenment. One of the ways to become more enlightened is to subject your world view to attack by outsiders. This is not threatening, rather it is to be sought and appreciated. It makes us flex our mental muscles!
KYrenKYren # Monday, December 29, 2008 7:57:15 PM
Anonymous # Monday, December 29, 2008 8:12:26 PM
DavidRavo # Monday, December 29, 2008 9:58:22 PM
As much as you would like to think that I don't quite understand Zen and meditation, etc., I understand perfectly. Self-deception is not the exclusive domain of non-believers.
Anonymous # Monday, December 29, 2008 10:05:27 PM
DavidRavo # Monday, December 29, 2008 11:16:52 PM
I don't mean to trivialize the subject of your study of 30 years. It is just that the paradigm has changed, and that it is no longer relevant, except as a therapeutic procedure. It is sort of like discussing the attributes of a biplane in the age of space shuttles. We will be redesigning mankind from the DNA up, over the next century. The big issue we face is determining that point where our enhancement of our biological capabilities and sensory apparatus makes us cease to be human.
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 12:10:25 AM
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 12:42:24 AM
You state: "Meditation is a spiritual discipline, and one that allows you to have some degree of control over your thoughts and emotions. Our normal state of mind is such that out thoughts and emotions are wild and unruly, and since we lack the mental discipline needed to tame them, are powerless to control them."
This is precisely what is involved in the control of our activities by the Limbic system. You talk about your 'simple experiment'. Do you know what the end result was of sensory deprivation experiments in the '60? I'll tell you: Delusional thinking that persisted when the subject got out of the tank. If a state of 'no thought' is a worthy goal, I can achieve it with a bottle of Jack Daniels. It also works well with pain and suffering. In focusing the mind, you better intergate the operations of the cortex and the thalamus. Meditation is only one means of doing this.
What appears to you as 'Gobbldygook' (a rage reaction by the way), is an empirical explanation of the 'Gobbldgygook' you have been hurling in my direction. Empirical reality trumps any internal mystical state you dream up. To think otherwise is to go the way of the Dodo.
If you find what I say so offensive, perhaps you should find another blog to target with your sarcasm and questionable wit.
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 1:18:03 AM
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 3:10:33 AM
Good luck to you....
Dacotah # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 7:04:02 AM
KYrenKYren # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:52:24 AM
It's just that you see meditation as a spiritual discipline that allows us to have control on our thoughts.David sees meditation through the scientific point of view and says it can improve brian functionality.He is not totaly discarding the benefits of meditation.There's no need to argue.
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 1:57:07 PM
Hi Kiren,
You are such a gentle soul, and I really enjoy your blog.
Coming from India, you likely know far more about the subject under this strange discussion than I do. You are right about my scientific viewpoint. And, you are right that I do not take issue with the validity and usefulness of meditation. It was a daily requirement when I practiced the martial arts as a youth. Also, I have no issues with Zen or other forms of Buddahism. The only religious beliefs that I do have an issue with are those that see themselves as superior or 'more right' than the other religions on the planet. If there is a God, I am sure he/she practices a policy of non-discrimination as far as worshipers are concerned.
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 1:57:40 PM
Dacotah # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 1:58:40 PM
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 3:05:20 PM
I thought you had decided to leave this discussion.
Your last comment seems reasonable to me, save the assumption: "Can the mind even see the mind? We have to answer yes and no. No, because the mind can't be a subject and object at the same time." Actually, it is entirely possible to map the entire neuronal architecture of a given brain, and display the result in a dynamic, moving, hologram. In this case, the mind can indeed see the mind in operation.
One caveat: Unlike a computer, which uses electrical impulses to calculate and convey information, the brain uses electrical signals, hormones, and electrochemical transfers between the synapses in order to do its thing. However, these components can be modeled and visualized at the same time within the hologram.
Again, I have to say that labels such as 'Eastern' or 'Western' minds, societies, or what not, are what General Semantics calls 'Abstractions'.
While abstractions serve to simplify 'issues', they also muddle thinking and create impediments to clarity. What we should be seeking is a synthesis of both models (East/West), incorporating the best features of each into the approaches and solutions to our coming problems as a global society.
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 3:46:57 PM
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 4:02:38 PM
"If you don't GET IT this time around - don't worry. You will have the opportunity to do so again and again, lifetime after lifetime, until we do. With each opportunity being bigger and better each time."---Please provide empirical evidence of this phenomena. It is unknown to me. I don't have too much trouble "getting' things...., but you truly have some hostility issues to deal with, even if you don't recognize them.
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 4:31:47 PM
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 4:42:03 PM
show me this ... give me proof ... you have issues ... prove me wrong" ... this sort of thing) the person is said to be caught in the cycle of existence, samsara."
These statements are meaningless and contain undefined terms such as 'Pure', 'Clear Light', 'afflictive emotions', 'cycle of existence' and 'Samsara'. Your reference to Tantra is an assumption of a higher authority that provides validity to your argument. This is one of the fundamental flaws of most religious doctrines. In any event, I am unable to respond to your comment.
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 5:06:14 PM
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 6:18:00 PM
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 6:59:58 PM
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:06:13 PM
(Quantum entanglement is a phenomenon in which the quantum states of two or more objects are linked together - even though the individual objects may be spatially separated. In 1982, French physicist Alain Aspect verified that measurements performed on one system instantaneously influence other systems entangled with the measured system, even when far apart.)
Because quantum entanglement implies faster than light speed interactions, it creates an impression of non-locality or what Einstein called a spooky "action at a distance" connection that defies both classical and relativistic concepts of space and time. In 2003, researchers in Austria led by Marcus Aspelmeyer successfully sent entangled photons to opposite sides of the Danube River by using satellites to beam entangled photons to Earth.
This experiment can be replicated:
A blood sample is taken from a hospital patient. The two are then spatially separated, located several miles apart. When the patient experiences high levels of stress, matching markers in the remote blood sample spontaneously increase slightly, even though distant from the patient. When the patient experiences deep relaxation, the isolated blood sample markers instantaneously decrease.
Researchers theorize that some sort of biological equivalent to quantum entanglement is occuring, bu they don't understand the mechanism yet.
Now, this is TRULY something I don't understand!!!
KYrenKYren # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:09:58 PM
Plz Read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cārvāka
http://www.kamat.com/jyotsna/blog/blog.php?BlogID=751
Thank you David.
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:17:03 PM
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:19:16 PM
I'll check the links as well!
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:25:43 PM
You sure have a fist full of labels to apply to things. And, you still maintain artificial, Aristotelian, either-or East/West distinctions. I prefer the clarity of science and the principle of Occam's Razor in explaining things. And, You still haven't addressed the objections I have raised in this dialog, so adios!
KYrenKYren # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:26:51 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charvak
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:26:59 PM
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:32:09 PM
KYrenKYren # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:36:52 PM
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:36:58 PM
I guess I will proudly carry on in the Cārvāka tradition. Does this mean I can get in on the Tantric sex stuff??
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:44:43 PM
KYrenKYren # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:44:46 PM
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:49:32 PM
DavidRavo # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 8:59:36 PM
Thanks for visiting my blog. Your comment is very profound, and I agree with you completely. In addition, it is difficult to grasp the power we now have to change ourselves dramatically. We need every good tool we have in our kit to correctly engineer next year's model of Man.
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 9:13:42 PM
KYrenKYren # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 9:17:50 PM
Being an Indian I would say,you don't have full knowledge of the eastern philosophy.Your holier than thou,east vs west attitude shows that meditation has had no effect on you.
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 9:26:12 PM
Anonymous # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 9:28:44 PM
KYrenKYren # Tuesday, December 30, 2008 9:57:56 PM
I like some aspects of the Indian philosophy at the same time I can't forget that since the Renaissance the west has given the world,railway,aeroplane,radio and so many great inventions.Charvak,an Indian philosopher,in the 6th century BC had a sort of "western" world view of today.That's why I question East vs. West mentality.