Musings

Last night, I saw former Vice President Al Gore pitching his new book about global warming on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Although Stewart’s massive ego did not allow Mr. Gore to get a word in edgewise, clearly he is jumping on the bandwagon of fear for his own political gain and ego strokes from his unsophisticated followers.

Although I have commented in earlier blogs that such warming is likely happening, it is interesting to take a historical perspective of the whole business. Consider the following fun facts:

The Permian extinction event about 500 million years ago is now attributed by most scientists to two happenings of the time: 1st, a major magma flow out of the Earth’s interior (the Deccan traps) in Asia, that lasted as long as one million years, raised the global temperature by about 5 degrees C. Life survived, although there was a lot of species that didn’t make it. Then, as a result of this temperature excursion, a massive release of formerly frozen methane hydrates arose from the ocean’s floor. This raised the global temperature by a further 5 degrees, and resulted in the overall extinction of over 95% of life on Earth.

Since 500 million years ago, there have been 41 events of extreme temperature excursions, and extinction events of varying magnitudes. Many were related to intense volcanic activity. According to Gregory Retallack, professor of geologic sciences at the University of Oregon, "Data from carbon anomalies and microscopic leaf pores indicate that some of these killer greenhouses ramped up, within only a few thousand years, to intolerable levels of more than 10 times the modern level of atmospheric carbon dioxide. What stopped them from continuing on to a sterile greenhouse atmosphere like that of Venus? It was the widespread death and burial of animals and their carbon which created fossil bonanzas, the likes of which may have saved us from the heat sterilization experienced by our sister planet."

Muddying the analysis of these events is the demonstrated variance in solar output of our sun. Some scientists that study the Sun’s 22 year cycle believe this could add or subtract as much as 22% to mean global temperatures. Also, it is not well understood what contribution to overall temperatures is made by the collisions of high-energy cosmic rays with the molecules in our upper atmosphere, and what deviations may be provided by the changes in the orbital mechanics of planet Earth.

So, what do we really know?

1. For sure, humans are contributing to the rise in global temperatures which have been relatively stable over the last two million years. Current computer models suggest a 5 degree C. rise over the next 50 years due to ‘civilization’.

2. It appears from the fossil record, that a 10 degree C. rise from present levels may trigger a large-scale extinction event.

3. The potential exists for an exacerbation of the measured and forecasted temperature rise as a result of massive methane hydrate releases from the Arctic tundra or the ocean floor, and the possible eruption of a ‘Supervolcano’ somewhere in the Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’. A possible excursion in solar output may add to the baking of the planet (if the timing is right).

So what can we do?

Damn little. Remember, 41 prior extreme events had nothing to do with Human activity.

So what should we do?

Well, if we think Humanity is worth saving, it appears we had better throw our resources into establishing colonies off of the planet. It is the only long-term solution. And we had better take along all of the seed stocks and germ cells that are now going into the underground Ark in Europe.