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RAMALAN: EKONOMI MALAYSIA MELESET PADA 2009-2013 & 2020 - 2024

Pada Januari 2006 saya meramalkan bahawa ekonomi Malaysia akan mengalami kemelesetan pada 2009--2013 dan 2020--2024. Saya membuat ramalan ini berdasarkan intuisi semata-mata tanpa disokong oleh fakta, tetapi terdorong setelah mengamati graf yang menunjukkan tren kitaran perniagaan di Malaysia sejak 1966 hingga 2000.

Sepanjang tempoh tersebut Malaysia pernah mencatatkan penurunan ekonomi dengan kadar pertumbuhan output benar di bawah 5% pada tahun 1967, 1% pada 1974-1975, -2% pada 1985-1986 dan yang terakhir -7% pada 1997-1998.

1967 - kejatuhan pertama setelah 1963 (Malaysia terbentuk)
1974-1975 - akibat krisis harga minyak dunia
1985-1986 - akibat kejatuhan harga komoditi; dan
1997-1998 - akibat krisi kewangan di Asia

Jika kita melihat kepada graf tersebut, ekonomi Malaysia pasti akan mengalami kejatuhan bukan sahaja pada selang yang hampir sekata, iaitu setiap 10 tahun, bahkan juga mengikut nilai kejatuhan yang seragam. Dengan melihat kepada graf ini juga, justeru intuisi saya meramalkan bahawa tren tersebut akan berulang seperti yang berikut:
1967 - kejatuhan pertama setelah 1963 (Malaysia terbentuk)
1974-1975 - akibat krisis harga minyak dunia
1985-1986 - akibat kejatuhan harga komoditi; dan
1997-1998 - akibat krisi kewangan di Asia

2009-2013 - akibat krisis politik dalam negeri; dan
2020-2024 - akibat krisis sumber manusia

Saya juga meramalkan bahawa krisis ekonomi pada 2009--2013 adalah lebih gawat berbanding keadaan 1997-1998, mungkin mencatatkan sehingga ke paras -10% dan lebih teruk lagi pada tahun 2020-2024 itu yang berkemungkinan akan mencatatkan 16% di bawah sifar.

Justeru wahai bangsaku, marilah kita berwaspada dan bersatu teguh bercerai roboh agar negara kita dan kita sendiri tidak mengalami seperti apa yang dialami pada zaman Nabi Yusuf.

Wallahu a'lam.

KOS PERANG DI IRAQ'Dr M cuba jatuhkan PM'

Comments

Anonymous Friday, September 1, 2006 2:39:00 AM

Psychophobia writes: Friday, Sept 01, 2006 [b]Not worth the paper it is written on[/b] Raja Petra Kamarudin [align=justify]They say in legal circles that a verbal agreement is not worth the paper it is written on. Islam says, if a man breaks his word up to three times, then do not take him as a friend or comrade. Islamic scholar or ulamak Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, also currently Prime Minister of Malaysia, gave his word and he broke it more than three times. Abdullah, therefore, cannot be taken as a friend either in the western or Islamic perspective. And who did Abdullah give his word to? He gave it to previous Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad -- and of course to all Malaysians in his 2004 Election Manifesto, which he has also broken. And what did he promise Dr Mahathir? Many things, amongst which are that the Scenic or 'Crooked' Bridge would not be abandoned, the double tracking railway line would be pursued, and the national car, Proton, would be supported -- just to mention but three. After Dr Mahathir announced his resignation to a shocked Umno General Assembly in mid-2002, Abdullah and Dr Mahathir spent 15 months in countless conferences to discuss what the former should and would do when he finally takes over as Prime Minister in November 2003. Dr Mahathir went into great detail and explained at length why he did what he did in his 22 years as Malaysia's Prime Minister. Dr Mahathir had a reason for his many perceived lunatic moves. Even Abdullah, who was his deputy soon after Anwar Ibrahim's exit in September 1998, could not understand everything that Dr Mahathir did. Now he does. Abdullah sat there taking pages after pages of notes as Dr Mahathir gave him a 15-month crash course in Mahanomics (synonymous with Reaganomics). By the end of the 15-month training and orientation programme, Abdullah understood fully what was in the head of that strange animal called Mahathir. More importantly, Abdullah now saw the logic in Dr Mahathir's every move and agreed that, though sometimes somewhat devious, many of these moves were actually quite necessary in the pursuit of the bigger objective. Many of Dr Mahathir's moves would certainly appear loony to the uninitiated. They would appear even stranger when viewed in the backdrop of what was perceived as a failed plan. Dr Mahathir was a blunderer and the many disasters he left as a legacy to Abdullah in November 2003 laid testimony to this. But Abdullah knew they were no disasters. He did not know earlier of course. But 15 months of sitting in front of Dr Mahathir and taking notes as the Prime Minister imparted his innermost thoughts left Abdullah with no doubts that this old man knew what he was up to and these moves could only be labelled as brilliant. Take the Scenic or 'Crooked' Bridge as one example. No one would disagree if we were to say that this is the most stupid idea yet to come out of Dr Mahathir's mind. Why build half a bridge? Why build such a silly looking bridge that would wind its way around because it had to join the Causeway halfway across the Straits of Johor or Tebrau Straits? If they built a full bridge, then the bridge could be built straight, lower and shorter at maybe almost the same cost as half a bridge. But now they are building half a bridge, so it has to be crooked and higher -- and the cost for half a bridge is not half the cost of a full, straight bridge. But they can't build a straight or full bridge because Singapore will not allow their half of the Causeway to be demolished and they are not interested in building the other half of the bridge on their side or within their territorial waters. Singapore could of course agree to join Malaysia in this bridge project and agree to the Causeway being demolished and a full, straight bridge be built to replace the Causeway. But Singapore wanted the bridge to be packaged with a lot of other goodies, all in Singapore's favour. These goodies would be like throwing in the supply of sand, allowing Singapore Air Force planes more flights over Malaysian air space, plus a re-look at the water agreement. Dr Mahathir did not agree to this. He would not package the bridge with all these other issues and he wanted each issue to be an issue by itself and to be negotiated separately and on its own merits. Dr Mahathir was no fool. He knew if he rejected Singapore's demand for a packaged deal, then Singapore would not agree to the bridge. Malaysia could go on with the bridge if it wanted, but it can only build a bridge on Malaysia's side, not on Singapore's side. Therefore it would have to be a silly-looking half-bridge that would need to be highly elevated and winding. That was exactly what Dr Mahathir wanted. He wanted Singapore to reject the full, straight bridge idea and stipulate that Malaysia can only build half a bridge if it still insisted on proceeding with the plan. Dr Mahathir did not want a full bridge. He wanted a half-bridge. A full bridge would mean it would have to be straight and therefore low. A half-bridge would force the bridge to curve and therefore it would have to be built highly elevated. What Dr Mahathir really wanted is the space beneath the bridge which a full bridge would not offer while a half-bridge would. And why did he want this space? He wanted it because he wanted large container ships and oil tankers to be able to sail under the bridge. The Straits of Melaka is one of the busiest sea lanes in the world. But ships plying the Straits cannot reach Johor Port unless they sail around Singapore. So they would rather stop at the Port of Singapore instead of coming to Johor. Even ships carrying goods bound for Malaysia would rather stop at Singapore for transhipment to Malaysia rather than sail to Malaysia. Once there is a highly elevated bridge, then the ships can bypass Singapore and come straight to Malaysia. In short, a highly elevated 'crooked' bridge would boost the viability of Johor Port and pose a serious threat to the Port of Singapore. To be more dramatic, the bridge could actually kill the Port of Singapore and make Johor Port the new centre for imports to and exports from Malaysia -- plus for those Indonesian importers and exporters as well who currently would rather use Singapore than sail the extra distance around Singapore to come to Johor. That was what Dr Mahathir really wanted. He was not actually interested in the bridge. He was more interested in Malaysia overtaking Singapore in the port business. And the crooked, high, half-bridge would be able to achieve this. A straight, low, full bridge would not. Dr Mahathir very cleverly manoeuvred so that Singapore would disagree with the full bridge and would instead ask Malaysia to proceed with half a bridge. Once they said that, Dr Mahathir got them exactly where he wanted them. The half-bridge is Singapore's idea, not Dr Mahathir's, so Singapore cannot now turn around and say that they had been tricked and the bridge was merely a Red Herring and that the real motive was to outdo the Port of Singapore. Somehow, along the way, Malaysia's Foreign Minister packaged the supply of sand and more SAF flights over Malaysian air space in the bridge deal. Dr Mahathir never agreed to this. But Abdullah did for reasons known only to himself and his son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin. The sand would of course come from Johor and those individuals who will be awarded the contract to supply sand to Singapore are family members of those involved in the decision-making process at the very top echelons of power -- those walking in the corridors of power. The supply of sand is not a government effort but a private arrangement. What is even more perturbing to Dr Mahathir is that Singapore did not demand that the supply of sand be included in the deal. This idea came from Malaysia. It was Malaysia that proposed it, not Singapore that demanded it. When the Johor Menteri Besar found out about the supply of sand arrangement he was outraged. Dr Mahathir had banned the export of sand back in 1997 and Johor was quite happy with this as the sand was coming from Johor and it is the politicians and their cronies who are making hundreds of millions out of it. For the first time in his life this very polished man who always has a sweet smile for anyone he encounters lost his cool. He never raises his voice, especially to the Prime Minister. But that day he did and he told the Prime Minister that Umno Johor will strongly oppose any Johor sand being sold to Singapore. Even the palace got into the act and there was a danger of another Constitutional Crisis erupting. In short, there was a mutiny and Johor was in revolt. A crisis never before seen in Malaysian history was about to explode. This was a state-federal conflict in the making. Abdullah had blundered big time. He had agreed that the bridge would include the supply of sand to Singapore. Now Johor, the source of the sand, put its foot down and threatened to resist at whatever cost, and Johor can be as independent as Kelantan if it so wishes. They would also reveal the names of all those who stand to benefit from this supply of sand; family members of those at the very top of the Abdullah administration. If you think the Mahathir-Anwar crisis was exciting, the supply of sand to Singapore would dwarf this by far. Two days later, Abdullah announced that the bridge project would be aborted, after starting work on it (and incurring a liability of RM100 million). Three weeks before that, Parliament had reiterated the bridge project would go on and the Minister of Works himself assured Parliament that this would be so. But now it was off. They would not be proceeding with the bridge. They could not proceed with it. To proceed with it would mean they have to supply sand to Singapore. And this would create a massive crisis between the federal government and the Johor state government. The only way out of the supply of sand commitment would be to abort the bridge project. No bridge, no sand, and no federal government-Johor state government crisis, plain and simple. But it is out of the frying pan, into the fire. Without the bridge, there would be no way ships could sail to Johor Port through the Straits and the Port of Singapore would continue to dominate this region. Dr Mahathir's plan to build up Johor Port and challenge Singapore's dominance was thwarted. And it was thwarted by no other than his successor who had promised him that the bridge would go on. And it was thwarted because some greedy people in the decision-making team had tried to get rich quick through selling sand to Singapore by packaging the sand supply deal in the bridge proposal. Dr Mahathir was hopping mad. Abdullah had made a big booboo, and to get out of this booboo he cancelled the bridge project. Abdullah was trying to save his arse. But in doing so he sacrificed Malaysia. Johor Port would now have to remain as pathetic as it has always been. And the Port of Singapore would remain the big wheel of this region. Flushed down the toilet is Dr Mahathir's plan for overtaking Singapore. And, to make it worse, Abdullah had promised Dr Mahathir the bridge would go on. And he understood fully well why it must. And he realised that the bridge was for the good of Malaysia's commerce. But saving his arse was his first priority. Saving Johor Port has to come second. That is the story of the 'Crooked' Bridge. There are many other stories such as about the double tracking railway line, the national car, and more. Suffice to say, the double tracking railway line had the same objective as the 'Crooked' Bridge; in that Malaysia's commerce would improve and Singapore's dominance in the region would be given a serious challenge. But Abdullah aborted this as well. The double tracking railway line was actually the first move. Once the double tracking was done, then the high speed train was supposed to follow. Imagine the day when one could live in a cheaper town like Ipoh where property prices are half those in the big city, yet work in Kuala Lumpur -- and the time it takes to get to work from Ipoh would be faster than driving from Subang Jaya to Kuala Lumpur today. The small towns would boom and development would be spread out throughout the country instead of concentrated in a few key areas like it is today. But that too now remains just a dream. The MV Agusta matter is another issue. Dr Mahathir was going to use MV Agusta to develop a peoples' car (volks wagen) that could be marketed for as low as RM10,000, or less. MV Agusta had the technology to do this and the cost to buy MV Agusta, in spite of it debts, was still lower than embarking on this project doing your own R&D from scratch. R&D costs billions of Ringgit and to develop a car from scratch would not only cost more but would be time consuming as well. Even if you are prepared to pay the higher cost, the time would take too long. MV Agusta was a short cut and at a cheaper price on top of that. But MV Agusta was sold off for RM4 and Dr Mahathir's RM10,000 peoples' car went down the toilet, just like all the others. In fact, the sale of MV Agusta itself raises other questions. How did they decide who to sell it to and do those in the decision-making process have an interest in the company that bought MV Agusta? (Which raises the issue of conflict of interest.) Dr Mahathir knows the real story, as he does about who those sand suppliers are, but he is not revealing all, at least not just yet. It is not that Abdullah is ignorant about all this. He knows the agenda behind the 'Crooked' Bridge, double tracking railway line, MV Agusta, and much more. He knows that all these are mere catalysts for bigger things. And he agreed that these are necessary for the future of the country. Yet he dismantled them one by one just to make it appear like Dr Mahathir is stupid and that all his ideas are stupid. It is all about politics and of trying to undermine Dr Mahathir. And what better way to do this than to dismantle what Dr Mahathir started and give the impression that the previous Prime Minister was a nut case. So the country suffers. So what? That is the small picture. The big picture is: Dr Mahathir is embarrassed. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is another thing that Dr Mahathir was and still is against. All those years he was prime minister he resisted the FTA. Then, late last year, Abdullah secretly signed the FTA with Japan whereby Japanese automobiles would have free access to the Malaysian market while Malaysian vegetables would have free access to the Japanese market. Malaysian vegetables? What vegetables do we have that we can export to Japan? We do not even grow enough for our own consumption and almost everything we eat needs to be supplemented with imports. Anyway, do the Japanese eat our vegetables? Abdullah might as well have signed an FTA with Canada whereby we export ice cubes to the Eskimos. The FTA Abdullah signed with Japan was so confidential that even the Cabinet did not know about it until Abdullah informed its members later, after it had been signed. The Cabinet members were shocked, but by then it was too late to do anything about it. And how is Proton going to survive once Japanese cars get free access to the Malaysian market when even Europe and the United States can't compete with them? Proton is a dead man walking. Its days are numbered and it will be just a matter of time when the national car folds. As the Malays would say: siap kain kapan (prepare the funeral shroud). Now the United States also wants the FTA with Malaysia signed and the US-Malaysia FTA would open all government contracts and procurement to US companies. That is the end of the New Economic Policy. The days of the Bumiputera businessmen are numbered. Malays will have to revert to becoming clerks and drivers again. Dr Mahathir is beginning to doubt whether Abdullah knows what he is doing. As far as Dr Mahathir is concerned, whatever he did, he did with the interest of the nation at heart. But Abdullah's moves, the way Dr Mahathir sees it, are moves of a traitor who does not care about the country's interest. Dr Mahathir is quite prepared to allow Abdullah to run this country the way he, as Prime Minister, sees fit. But Dr Mahathir will not remain silent and allow this state of affairs to continue if, as he put it, Malaysia's sovereignty is jeopardised. Dr Mahathir would rather take on Abdullah than allow the man to destroy this country. Not just Dr Mahathir, but many Umno veterans as well believe that power in the hands of Abdullah is like giving a flower to a monkey. Monkeys do not appreciate the beauty of flowers. [/align]

Anonymous Friday, October 13, 2006 5:25:14 PM

Anonymous writes: "What Dr Mahathir really wanted is the space beneath the bridge which a full bridge would not offer while a half-bridge would. And why did he want this space? He wanted it because he wanted large container ships and oil tankers to be able to sail under the bridge." not large ships or tanker..but simply barge....thousands of them http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barge

Anonymous Friday, March 28, 2008 8:08:54 AM

Anonymous writes: kitaran ekonomi memang tidak boleh dielakkan. ia dibentuk oleh setiap penentu ekonomi, walaupun seorang petani. apalagi jika kita memerhatikan tingkahlaku syaerikat gergasi yang melangkaui sempadan negara-negara dunia secara bebasnya.apa yang boleh dilakukan hanyalah mendidik adik-adik kita yang sedang berada dalam bangku sekolah itu supaya membina jiwa yang mampu berjuang dalam apatah halangan dan tidak sekali mengabaikan aspek kemanusiaan yang betul-betul merobohkan bumi kita.

Anonymous Friday, March 28, 2008 1:36:23 PM

Jophy writes: Keanggotaan China ke dalam WTO pada tahun 2001. Adakah ia mendatangkan kesan negatif terhadap guna tenaga Malaysia akibat pemindahan kilang pembuatan ke China?

Anonymous Friday, March 28, 2008 2:49:00 PM

Ezon writes: Kadar inflasi kira-kira 3% di Malaysia yang di umum dalam laporan ekonomi. Adakah ini menunjukan tanda yang baik bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Malaysia?

son85 Sunday, March 30, 2008 2:43:38 PM

ya..kitaran ekonomi akan berulang-ulang setip 10 tahun...sejarah juga menunjuk peristiwa ini..kita perlu bersedia face this problem..siapa yang tidak berupaya akan menerima kesan yang besar..

Mohd Shah A HassanSHAHAIKAL Monday, March 31, 2008 6:57:51 AM

Pada hemat saya, tindakan segelintir pelabur asing yang memindahkan kilang-kilang pengeluaran mereka dari Malaysia ke China memang memberi kesan negatif kepada guna tenaga di Malaysia. Walau bagaimanapun, ini hanya bersifat jangka pendek.

Kerajaan tidak akan berdiam diri dalam perkara ini. Selain terus berusaha menarik pelaburan dari luar, kerajaan juga akan mempertingkat usaha penggalakan penyertaan rakyat khususnya bumiputera dalam bidang keusahawanan. Selain daripada itu IPT turut memperkenalkan subjek keusahawanan bagi menyokong dasar kerajaan ini. Tenaga kerja yang menganggur kini juga sangat terdedah kepada pelbagai jenis maklumat yang boleh membantu pembangunan kerjaya masing-masing. Kemunculan syarikat-syarikat jualan langsung yang berwibawa turut memberi laluan dan peluang kepada tenaga kerja yang kehilangan pekerjaan akibat tindakan pelabur asing menutup operasi di Malasia.

Satu perkara yang sangat penting ialah internet dan ICT kini berjaya meletakkan diri dalam arus pemikiran golongan muda dan masyarakat bandar yang menjadi sebahagian besar daripada tenaga kerja Malaysia. Kenaikan kos sara hidup yang berterusan juga turut memainkan peranan dalam memotivasikan rakyat untuk memaksa diri berfikiran kreatif dan inovatif.

Justeru, kehilangan pekerjaan hari ini hanya berlaku untuk tempoh beberapa jam sahaja (mungkin). Pekerja yang kehilangan pekerjaan akan dengan segera mendapat pekerjaan baru sama ada pekerjaan yang baru itu sama dengan pekerjaan lamanya, atau pekerjaan baru itu betul-betul bersifat baru bagi pekerja tersebut.



Anonymous Tuesday, August 18, 2009 3:53:30 AM

puteri_90 writes: eko. skrg makin gawat..kita sbg rkyt m'sia hrus berganding bahu mylmatkan eko neg kita..

Mohd Shah A HassanSHAHAIKAL Tuesday, August 18, 2009 4:12:36 PM


Hmmm...iyakeh?

Saya yakin majoriti rakyat Malaysia setuju dengan saran putri agar kita bersatu menyelamatkan ekonomi negara. Bahkan dari sudut politik pun, kedua-dua pihak pemerintah dan pembangkang menyerukan saran yang serupa. Masalahnya kita sukar menyatukan pendapat dan pendekatan dalam usaha memperkukuh ekonomi negara.

Mungkin puteri ada idea ajaib mengenai pendekatan terbaik yang boleh diterima oleh semua pihak...kongsikannya di sini.

Terima kasih


Mohd Shah A HassanSHAHAIKAL Friday, August 21, 2009 9:58:02 PM


Berikut adalah beberapa laman web/blog/forum yang memetik artikel di atas dengan menyatakan sumber rujukan/memberi kredit kepada penulis/blog Fikir! Fikir! Dan Fikir! Terima kasih kepada semua.

1. http://drluwoh.blogspot.com/2008/11/ekonomi-malaysia-bakal-meleset.html

2. http://groups.google.co.id/group/smspp7377/browse_thread/thread/5d2f0dd121cada4c

3. http://nkamariyah.blogspot.com/2009/03/ramalan-ekonomi-malaysia-meleset-pada.html

4. http://www.ehoza.com/v4/forum/info-pengetahuan-am/41584-ramalan-ekonomi-malaysia-meleset-pada-2009-2013-2020-2024-a.html

5. http://www.tkodaily.net/v2/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=8

6. http://www.topix.com/forum/world/malaysia/TLB155HG8HHPOQA4J/p2#c24

7. http://akudinda.blogspot.com/2009/04/ramalan-ekonomi-malaysia-meleset-pada.html



Manakala yang berikut pula adalah beberapa laman web/blog/forum yang memetik artikel atau tajuk artikel di atas secara tidak beretika (tidak menyebut sumber ambilan mereka bahkan ada yang seolah-olah cuba menonjolkan bahawa artikel itu dia punya atau dia yang tulis):-

1. http://www.massinside.com/?p=351

2. http://www.topix.com/forum/world/malaysia/TMSB2J6UPUQK84EVK#c5

3. http://www.iklan4level.com/id/artikel/ekonomi-malaysia.php [LIHAT PADA RUANG DI SUDUT ATAS SEBELAH KIRI SKRIN ANDA]

4. http://freedom4fighters.blogspot.com/2009/05/ramalan-ekonomi-malaysia-meleset-pada.html [SUMBER RUJUKAN DINYATAKAN TIDAK JELAS]

5. http://www.topix.com/forum/world/malaysia/TKN0STE23PP9QQVG7/p5#c98

6. http://mforum3.cari.com.my/viewthread.php?tid=394186&page=3&authorid=1139362




Anonymous Saturday, August 29, 2009 4:20:32 PM

explorer writes: ramalan ekonomi malaysia pada masa depan...bagaimana anda fikir dari segi bioteknologi...masa depan malaysia yg cerah kan

Mohd Shah A HassanSHAHAIKAL Monday, August 31, 2009 1:42:54 PM

Sesuatu teknologi - tidak terhad kepada bioteknologi sahaja - hanya akan bermakna jika ia diaplikasikan dalam kehidupan. Menghasilkan sesuatu teori ilmu, atau formula sesuatu teknologi tidak memberi apa-apa jika teori atau formula tersebut tidak diaplikasikan dalam kehidupan.

Bioteknologi sebagai satu cabang dalam kemajuan pengetahuan manusia tidak dijanjikan untuk dimiliki hanya oleh orang Malaysia sahaja. Ia milik sesiapa sahaja. Sejak Malaysia merdeka, khasnya sejak UPM dan MARDI ditubuhkan, pelbagai teknlogi (dalam bentuk teori dan formula - termasuklah bioteknologi) mungkin telah dihasilkan. Tetapi ke mana perginya teori dan formula teknologi tersebut? Hanya tersimpan di khutub khanah perpustakaan barangkali.

Kesimpulannya, walaupun teknologi mempunyai fungsi yang amat besar dalam pembinaan sesuatu tamadun (kemajuan sesuatu bangsa) tetapi usaha sesuatu bangsa itulah yang menjadi penentu kemajuan negara atau bangsa berkenaan. Justeru itu, jika ingin Malaysia maju dan cerah masa hadapannya, bukan teknologi semata yang menjadi penentunya tetapi ia akan bergantung kepada sejauh mana rakyat dan penduduk Malaysia dapat berganding bahu memikul rintangan dan segala beban serta menjinjing segala laba dan keuntungan demi kesejahteraan bersama.


Anonymous Wednesday, September 16, 2009 6:06:29 PM

Anonymous writes: dr.mahathir-wawasan 2020 tahun 2020-ekonomi lingkup lagi

Anonymous Friday, October 9, 2009 1:32:56 PM

Anonymous writes: hurmm...pada saya..kerajaan Malaysia harus bersatu selagi mereka tidak bersatu Malaysia akan jatuh..x guna dgn slogan 1 Malaysia tapi hanya pada nama..tp hakikat nya pada pandangan saye...tidak...Malaysia masih x bersatu..contoh dah ade..ahli dewan rakyat contohnya bergaduh sesama sendiri..masing2 tiada toleransi sebagai rakyat Malaysia sy berasa sgt malu...tapi jika kepimpinan seorang Perdana Menteri yg memainkan peranan yang bijak insyaallah masaalah ekonomi di Malaysia dapat di atasi..selagi semua pemimpin kerajaan yg mewakili rakyat di Malaysia sedar akan kewujudan slogan 1 Malaysia ni..dan tahu menghargai pahit jerih pemimpin terdahulu...insyaallah..semuanya akan kembali kpd asal nya... jika kamu semua menonton drama di tv3 sempena merdeka "memoir aishah" dr pada itu sy sebagai belia mula sedar betapa susah nya org dahulu utk memerintah negara sendiri..dan sekarang apa yg dapat sy lihat..x ada satu pon di kalangan rakyat malaysia yang sedar betapa penting nya bertapak di negara sendiri...jangan sampai di sebabkan politik didlam negera sehingga menyebab kan kejatuhan semula malaysia. hingga tergadai negara malaysia ini nauzubillah...mudah2an di jauhkan perkara begitu... terima kasih

Anonymous Friday, October 9, 2009 1:38:50 PM

Anonymous writes: ape kate kalo m'sia kumpulkan kesemua ahli bijak pandai dlm ekonomi utk berkumpul dan membincangkan ttg ekonomi negara dan mngeluarkan idea bernas yg boleh di guna pakai dlm mennyelesaikan masaalah ekonomi negara ini.

Mohd Shah A HassanSHAHAIKAL Saturday, October 10, 2009 4:26:44 AM


Saya setuju dengan kedua-dua pendapat di atas.

1. Ahli-ahli politik Malaysia harus mendahulukan nilai-nilai profesionalisme yang tinggi dan menjauhkan perasaan peribadi yang lebih bersifat sentimen. Dengan demikian, mereka boleh berhujah dengan matang dan ilmiah sama ada di dalam Dewan Parlimen mahupun di luar dewan, demi keutuhan negara dan bangsa Malaysia. Soal remeh-temeh yang boleh menjejaskan perpaduan, menjatuhkan maruah individu (pihak lawan) dan sebagainya tidak perlu dibangkitkan lebih-lebih lagi di luar waktu kempen pilihan raya.

2. Para cendekiawan Malaysia, tanpa mengira apakah mereka itu ahli ekonomi, pengurusan, politik, pendidikan, sosial dan sebagainya harus berkumpul dan menghasilkan idea-idea, teori dan saran-saran positif untuk memastikan negara ini terus kukuh dan maju dalam semua bidang. Persoalannya, adakah ahli-ahli politik sedia dan sanggup mengimplementasikan temuan-temuan bijak pandai Malaysia ini? Kadang-kadang pula terdapat dikalangan cendekiawan ini yang tidak bersikap profesional sehingga memberi pandangan yang lebih cenderung menyokong satu pihak (dalam politik). Cendekiawan adalah golongan bijak pandai yang sepatutnya bersikap berkecuali.


Mohd Shah A HassanSHAHAIKAL Saturday, October 10, 2009 4:29:40 AM


Tentang dr.mahathir-wawasan 2020....tahun 2020-ekonomi lingkup lagi....

Apabila saya meramal ekonomi Malaysia akan meleset pada 2020 - 2024, ia adalah disebabkan oleh kejayaan Wawasan 2020, bukan kegagalan wawasan tersebut. Wawasan 2020 menggariskan pada tahun 2020 Malaysia akan menjadi sebuah negara maju. Sudah tentu ia merujuk kepada pengetahuan rakyat Malaysia dan penguasaan mereka terhadap teknologi...Dr. Mahathir mahu rakyat Malaysia turut berperanan sebagai pengeluar teknologi bukan sekadar pengguna teknologi yang di hasilkan oleh orang lain.

Yang menjadi faktor kemelesetan ekonomi Malaysia (mengikut ramalan saya) adalah disebabkan oleh kegagalan rakyat Malaysia khususnya orang Melayu memahami (atau sengaja tidak mahu mengambil tahu) terhadap matlamat sebuah negara bangsa.

Saya meramalkan pada tahun 2020, rakyat Malaysia tidak lagi bergantung semata-mata kepada sumber-sumber dalam negeri untuk memperolehi pendapatan - bermaksud rakyat Malaysia boleh menjana pendapatan dari seluruh dunia dengan hanya duduk di rumah. Oleh kerana itu, mereka tidak mengharapkan sebarang bentuk pekerjaan seperti pada hari ini, akibatnya ramai antara rakyat Malaysia tidak mahu bekerja kerana mereka boleh menikmati kehidupan hasil pendapatan dari luar negara dengan hanya duduk diam-diam di rumah.

Maka, kemelesetan ekonomi Malaysia pada tahun 2020-2024 yang saya ramalkan bukan disebabkan kegagalan dasar-dasar dan pemikiran Dr. Mahathir yang terkandung dalam Wawasan 2020 itu.



Anonymous Friday, February 5, 2010 7:40:58 AM

aisya writes: saya tidak bersetuju kika ianya jadi begini......... bagi org yg ssah bgaimna nk idup

Mohd Shah A HassanSHAHAIKAL Friday, February 5, 2010 12:55:45 PM

Sudut pandangan mana yang saudara aisya tidak bersetuju? Dan kenapa?

Dalam blog ini tidak ada yang salah dan tidak ada yang betul. Semua perbincangan adalah semata-mata untuk menjana pemikiran kreatif dan kritis. Saudara boleh saja bersetuju, dan boleh tidak bersetuju atau berkecuali. Pokoknya, melalui perbincagan dalam blog ini saudara terpanggil untuk turut sama berfikir - berfikir secara kreatif dan kritis.

Terima kasih kerana memberi komen, juga terima kasih kerana memberikan pendapat.

Wassalam

Anonymous Wednesday, February 17, 2010 3:07:31 AM

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Anonymous Tuesday, April 27, 2010 9:42:53 AM

dellah writes: saya tak tau ekonomi meleset ka atau tidsk,yang saya nak harga getah sekerap saya jangan turun lagi kalu naik lagi baik,dulu kami motong getah sekilo dua inggit saja,lani dah dekat lima inggit..wow dah dapat makan udang dan ketam,dulu tak...ha ha ha.pagi saya noreh petang dah rilik.

Anonymous Friday, July 2, 2010 5:20:24 PM

Anonymous writes: ekonomi negara anda pasti hancur...karena indonesia akan menjadi raja di kawasan....dengan jumlah penduduk yg besar indonesia akan jaya.....

Anonymous Sunday, July 4, 2010 6:50:11 PM

bakar1985 writes: saya tak fikir macam mana komen-komen semuanya mengenai perniagaan bangsa-bangsa lain je.pada pendapat saya dalam negara kita ni pemimpin,seluruh bangsa melayu kita jgn dok asyik mengejar harta dunia ,cuba tgk dengan rasuah,politik wang,seleweng wang rakya dan lain-lain,macam mana melayu nak maju dok hasad dengki sesama islam ,org berpolitik kita berpolitik ,politik dasar kerana bangsa dan negara ni tidak dok mengabiskan beras je,bak kata nabil pelawak kita lu fikirlah sendiri

Anonymous Sunday, July 4, 2010 7:00:29 PM

bakar1985 writes: maaflah pada pengatahuan saya jgn kita baca negara luar kita ceta dalam negara kita sendiri.saya ingat cik sendiri nampak ,yang melingkupkan negara kita sendiri bangsa kita juga,semua dah jadi ular sawa kenyang

Anonymous Monday, August 2, 2010 3:28:45 AM

Anonymous writes: Duit kami dalm Noradz yang dibeku oleh Bank Negara bila nak dikembalikan kepada ahli. Siap lah masa PRU ke 13 nanti

Anonymous Monday, August 2, 2010 3:30:26 AM

Anonymous writes: $ 65 juta tu... banyak tu.. Kami pinjam kat bank.. pinjam duit ganjaran perkhidmatan.

Anonymous Monday, August 2, 2010 3:33:23 AM

Anonymous writes: Peruntukan dalam Perhebat pun dah banyak kena potong

Anonymous Monday, August 2, 2010 3:34:57 AM

Anonymous writes: Bila nak naik gaji... mangkok..

Anonymous Monday, August 2, 2010 3:43:27 AM

Anonymous writes: FDI ke malaysia merosot pada tahun 2009 makanya menteri perindustrian dah gagal

Anonymous Monday, August 2, 2010 3:45:23 AM

Anonymous writes: Jangan gunakan alasan undang2 dan mahkamah dgn mengambil duit $65 juta tu... bagilah balik kpd ahli yang menderita....

Mohd Shah A HassanSHAHAIKAL Monday, August 2, 2010 10:47:07 AM

FDI = Foreign Direct Investment = Pelaburan Langsung Asing. Kurang FDI ada juga kebaikannya kerana jika FDI menguasai ekonomi negara, pentadbiran negara boleh dipengaruhi oleh mereka...maknya oleh orang asing itu.

Anonymous Wednesday, August 4, 2010 3:45:13 PM

Anonymous writes: Sedap kau cakap mohd shah. Orang tengah tak de keja apa cita. Wayang cina lah dia nie

Anonymous Wednesday, August 4, 2010 3:46:53 PM

Lismawati writes: Suka lah kau bro.... ekonomi setengah mati

Anonymous Wednesday, August 4, 2010 3:48:55 PM

Anonymous writes: Orang politik hanya jaga periuk nasi mereka je

Anonymous Wednesday, August 4, 2010 3:50:37 PM

Mohd Rosnan writes: Aku pun masuk Norardz ... duit sendiri campur pinjaman koperasi... aduh merana aku....

Mohd Shah A HassanSHAHAIKAL Wednesday, August 4, 2010 6:06:43 PM

Jangan marah kawan. Orang-orang asing di Malaysia kebanyakan lebih berjaya berbanding dengan Melayu tempatan. Kenapa? Kerana kebanyakan mereka datang dari negara-negara dunia ketiga; dengan lebih tepat lagi, mereka pernah mengalami hidup susah di tanah air dan kampung sendiri. Oleh itu, apabila berada di Malaysia, mereka lebih banyak bekerja keras dan berusaha gigih sehingga mereka boleh berjaya dan dapat mengirim duit ke kampung halaman.

Kejatuhan ekonomi ada hikmahnya. Mudah-mudah apabila kita terasa sempitnya hidup apabila negara menghadapi masalah ekonomi, kita bukan sahaja melipatgandakan usaha, tenaga dan pemikiran tetapi memperkukuh perpaduan sesama kita melalui kerjasama yang erat antara sesama kita. Inilah yang ditekankan oleh mantan PM, Tun Dr. Mahathir sejak dahulu hingga kini.

Semoga Berjaya! Aman! Dan Makmur!



Anonymous Monday, October 4, 2010 5:10:12 PM

Anak Jati Johor writes: sebilangan orang melayu suka menunggu dan lihat. inilah sikap yang masih melekat dalam diri sebilangan orang melayu. jika tak ubah sikap ini dari sekarang 10 tahun lagi, kejadian yang saudara Mohd Shah A Hasan ramalkan ini akan belaku. sebilangan ramainya sudah terjadi kini, malas untuk membanting tulang untuk mencari rezeki harta. malah mencari dengan jalan mudah.... teringat satu slogan yang sangat popular satu tika dahulu.... "BELILAH BARANGAN BUATAN MALAYSIA" dimanakah barang itu sekarang? malah negara kita dibanjiri oleh anasir anasir barangan dari luar negara. tidak kira datangnya secara nampak atau tidak. RAMALAN SAYA JUGA MENGATAKAN BAHAWA INI LAH SALAH SATU LAGI PUNCA UTAMA PADA 2020 NANTI AKAN MEMBUATKAN EKONOMI KITA LEBIH TERUK DARI BLACK MONDAY. fikirkan mengapa?? fikirkan... : berapa billion kah wang Malaysia sudah ke luar negara? : bayangkan jika seorang dari mereka menghantar wang keluar negara sebanyak RM700 sebulan (average). kita ada 4juta++ anasir luar di malaysia. RM2,800,000,000 ini lah anggaran untuk sebulan. RM33,600,000,000 setahun. : sah lah rumah mereka di kampong sana mempunyai seluas 4 hektar tanah. satu ladang lembu dan kambing. sekian...

Anonymous Thursday, October 7, 2010 6:32:27 AM

med90 writes: peristiwa krisis kewangan asia saya rasa tidak akan berlaku sekiranya kerajaan masih mengekalkan sistem kadar pertukaran tetap berbanding sistem kadar pertukaran yang lebih fleksibel.. punca berlakunya krisis kwgn 1997 adalah penyangak mata wang,george soros... jika malaysia kembali ke sistem kadar pertukaran bebas di mana ringgit akan diperdaganggkan kononnya akan memulihkan FDI negara ..kebarangkalian untuk mengulangi peristiwa 1997 adalah cerah.. untuk mengurangkan pergantungan FDI kita perlu lah menyokong industri/produk tempatan bagi menjayakan wawasan 2020 di samping itu kita dapat mengurangkan defesit negara dan akan menambahkan perbelanjaan negara agar ekonomi akan berkembang.. masalahnya sekarang...cuma 5% sahaja usahawan di malaysia yang mampu mepertahankan jenama/produk tempatan... bolehkah wawasan 2020 tercapai jika kita masih mengharapkan FDI..persoalan yang harus difikirkan ialah tercapaikah matlamat wawasan 2020??

Anonymous Saturday, October 9, 2010 2:04:08 PM

Anonymous writes: Kereta proton jual dinegara luar negara lebih murah drpd dijual kepada rakyat sendiri. Tanyalah kpd penjual kereta.. tak caya

Anonymous Sunday, October 10, 2010 4:53:27 AM

med90 writes: mengapa kereta proton lebih mahal di peringkat domestik berbanding di peringkat antarabangsa kerana sifat keanjalannya adalah berbeza mengikut kwasan tersebut... jika harga kereta di peringkat antarabangsa lebih mahal or sama harga mcm harga kereta di peringkat domestik..mcm mna kereta nasional nak bersaing dgn kereta yg lain??..... jika proton menaikkan hrg akan berlaku kerugian kerana pengguna di peringkat antarabangsa akan beralih ke kereta buatan negara lain spt honda dsb.. sng cerita pengguna di peringkat antarabangsa lebih sensetif memandangkan pilihan mereka untuk menggunakan kereta yg lain adalah tidak terhad... dlm negara mahal sikit x mmberi kesan teruk mcm di peringkat antarabangsa kerana kereta nasional mendapat perlindungan drpd kerajaan...malaysia mengenakan sekatan tarif terhadap kereta asing yg ingin dipasarkan dlm malaysia menyebabkan harga kereta asing menjadi mahal...pengguna lebih terdorong untk membeli kereta nasional kerana harganya lebih rendah berbanding kereta asing... jika anda membeli kereta nasional di luar negara kerana harganya yg lebih murah berbanding dgn kereta nasional dlm negara..anda akan dikenakan cukai sbnyk 3 kali ganda hrg kereta yg anda bawa msuk ke dlm m'sia...semuanya untk kbaikan syrkt proton dan rakyat m'sia sndiri...ianya normal

Anonymous Sunday, October 10, 2010 4:54:47 AM

med90 writes: mengapa kereta proton lebih mahal di peringkat domestik berbanding di peringkat antarabangsa kerana sifat keanjalannya adalah berbeza mengikut kwasan tersebut... jika harga kereta di peringkat antarabangsa lebih mahal or sama harga mcm harga kereta di peringkat domestik..mcm mna kereta nasional nak bersaing dgn kereta yg lain??..... jika proton menaikkan hrg akan berlaku kerugian kerana pengguna di peringkat antarabangsa akan beralih ke kereta buatan negara lain spt honda dsb.. sng cerita pengguna di peringkat antarabangsa lebih sensetif memandangkan pilihan mereka untuk menggunakan kereta yg lain adalah tidak terhad... dlm negara mahal sikit x mmberi kesan teruk mcm di peringkat antarabangsa kerana kereta nasional mendapat perlindungan drpd kerajaan...malaysia mengenakan sekatan tarif terhadap kereta asing yg ingin dipasarkan dlm malaysia menyebabkan harga kereta asing menjadi mahal...pengguna lebih terdorong untk membeli kereta nasional kerana harganya lebih rendah berbanding kereta asing... jika anda membeli kereta nasional di luar negara kerana harganya yg lebih murah berbanding dgn kereta nasional dlm negara..anda akan dikenakan cukai sbnyk 3 kali ganda hrg kereta yg anda bawa msuk ke dlm m'sia...semuanya untk kbaikan syrkt proton dan rakyat m'sia sndiri...ianya normal

Mohd Shah A HassanSHAHAIKAL Sunday, October 10, 2010 1:04:18 PM

Barang tempatan kenapa dijual pada harga yang rendah di luar negara?

Ada banyak faktor yang perlu diambil kira. Selain yang dijelaskan oleh med90, faktor-faktor lain yang menjadi penentu termasuklah dasar kerajaan (negara pengeksport dan negara pengimport), perjanjian perdagangan antarabangsa antara negara-negara yang terlibat (sekatan tertentu yang dikenakan oleh negara pengeluar sendiri dan negara penerima (pemasar)), standard piawaian antara negara, dan strategi pemasaran oleh syarikat pengeluar.

Tentang strategi pemasarasan oleh syarikat pengeluar, ada beberapa opsyen strategi yang boleh dipilih. Ada syarikat yang menggunakan kekuatan kualiti dan jaminan kualiti untuk menembusi pasaran luar. Syarikat-syarikat automobil Jepun dapat menembusi pasaran Amerika kerana strategi ini.

Ada juga syarikat yang menggunakan strategi harga untuk menembusi pasaran luar. Pernah dilaporkan tidak berapa lama dahulu, bagaimana beberapa syarikat pengeluar produk tekstil dan barangan berasaskan kulit dari China dapat menguasai pasaran Eropah kerana mereka menggunakan strategi harga.

Strategi lain termasuklah menggunakan faktor budaya, kekuatan rangkaian, penawaran perkhidmatan selepas jualan dan sebagainya.

Strategi mana yang paling sesuai? Itu hanya diketahui oleh syarikat berkenaan sahaja setelah melakukan R&D pemasaran globalnya. Sudah tentu, ini sudah mengambil kira semua faktor sama ada daripada sudut perundangan antarabangsa, budaya, persaingan, kos dan jaminan kualiti.



Anonymous Monday, October 11, 2010 3:29:23 AM

shieda writes: saya ada pertanyaan.....apabila keadaan ekonomi sekarang nie... perlukah kita berjimat cermat...ataupun membeli aset bagi pelaburan...sesuaikah dgn keadaan ekonomi skrg?? tq

Anonymous Monday, October 11, 2010 9:20:51 AM

med90 writes: apa yang sy jelaskan di atas lebih kpd mengapa harga kereta nasional berlaku sedemikian sahaja..harga,kuantiti,kerugian/keuntungan... hmmm..keadaan ekonomi malaysia sekarang agak baik walaupun berlaku kemelesetan ekonomi pada tahun 2008...kadar pengangguran sekarang masih di bawah 4%,klau x slap inlasi 3%,pertumbuhan ekonomi dijangkakan 6%,bajet 2011 dijangka lebih besar berbanding tahun sebelumnya..walaupun negara mengalami defesit,FDI kurang memuaskan, bilangan industri tempatan yang mampu bertahan cuma 5%... berjimat cermat adalah hak individu..jika anda boros berbelanja pasti lah memberi kebaikan kepada industri shj.. sebaiknya anda lebih berkesedrhanaan ketika ini..sentiasa berjimat cermat adalah baik walau bagaimana sekalipun keadaan ekonomi negara..alert perbelanjaan anda 2 thn sblum 2017/2018...pastikan mempunyai rizab/simpanan anda 6 bulan gaji sblum tahun tersebut.. mengenai pembelian aset pelaburan ketika ini adalah bergantung kepada keadaan yang mempengaruhi pelaburan anda.. jika anda ingin membeli aset bagi pelaburan seperti membeli saham dan bon untuk mendapatkan keuntungan..lihat kadar bunga semasa dahulu.. dalam menjalankan aktiviti spekulasi seperti ini anda harus bijak meramal..hubungan spekulasi dengan kadar bunga adalah songsang kerana kadar bunga merupakan kos kepada bon/saham.. kamu harus membeli bon/saham ketika kadar bunga tinggi.. menjualnya semula ketika kadar bunga/faedah rendah...

Anonymous Wednesday, October 20, 2010 2:20:11 PM

Anonymous writes: hah......ekonomi jatuh?????makin bertambah2lah kes jenayah nanti....

Anonymous Wednesday, November 3, 2010 12:45:54 AM

Anonymous writes: saya setuju kalau semua harga barangan tempatan dunia menurun

Anonymous Wednesday, November 17, 2010 11:57:05 AM

ahmad writes: macam mana dgn pelaburan saham seperti public mutual,ada kah saya perlu jual sekarang atau tunggu tgk keadaan dulu,takut jadi macam dulu.....rugi banyak sangat,tolong beri pandangan sebab 2011 dah hampir

Anonymous Saturday, January 1, 2011 1:21:14 AM

Jauh> writes: Ayuh Jom kita sama-sama Menukar Kerajaan yang ada dengan kerajaan yang Baru dan pemimpin yang baru dan berprotisma bekebajikan untuk rakyat bukan rakyat didahulukan kenaikan perdana menterti/isteri diutamanka :jangan sampai parah nagaraku diludah,jangan sampai bernanah baru nak berubah,Ayuh Jom Kita berubah PRU13 .

Anonymous Sunday, February 6, 2011 7:41:05 AM

Anonymous writes: tanya org ekonomi hancur ke tidak......jawapan semuanya mereka kata hancur hanya yang kroni jer selamat

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