Super Bowl Predictions II - AFC
Tuesday, 17. January 2006, 16:05:57
A few weeks ago, I lamented the inability of my team to adapt to the dictates of playoff football, trust their young quarterback, and demonstrate the offensive balance that is the cornerstone of champions. So far, so wrong. The Steelers, and head coach Bill Cowher, have come out firing against the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts. They've attacked and thrown the ball to open receivers with daring and aplomb. In point of fact, a decently refereed game against the Colts likely results in a final score of 35-10. It seems to me that the officiating influenced and aided the Colts in scoring 8 points they didn't earn - and it cost the Steelers a minimum of 8 points, and as many as 16. The Bengals and Colts share a finesse approach to offense that usually does not lead to success against power teams. The Steelers generally don't lose to finesse teams during the regular season or playoffs. There are exceptions as both the Colts and Bengals beat the Steelers this year. Still, their power is usually decisive. The problem for the team has been going against other Power Teams and recognizing when to diverge from the script.
The San Diego Chargers, Denver Broncos, and New England Patriots teams that defeated the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game were all power teams. In 1994, 1997, 2000 and 2004, the Steelers played against teams with physical run defenses and lost each game because of an inability or unwillingness to pass the ball effectively and consistently. I would have liked to see more than 5 passes in the second half of last weeks game in Indy, but they did get the W - and the power of the run in the second half is compelling. Nonetheless, trench battles against phsyically strong teams will require the offensive coordinators to find a rhythm.
Play calling is much more of an art than a science. It's about having a feel for the other team, their strengths and weaknesses, the other defensive coordinator and their authentic personality and tendencies. For example, if the authentic personality of a team is to attack, you can reliably estimate what tendencies will be expressed in crucial moments. This is not so easy when the approach is more cerebral, but there are weaknesses to every approach.
Denver's defense seems to be a mix of both approaches. Denver uses a number of defensive linemen to keep the front four fresh during the game. They rotate as many as seven or eight guys in the game. The most talented of these players is Trevor Pryce. Pryce can play inside or out - and he can bull rush or speed rush. He's agile, strong and reads plays really well. He can get a strong upfield push and still hold his ground against the run. He may be the second best lineman in the league (I'll take Richard Seymour first). Pryce is not as young as he used to be, but who is.
Denver has blazing quick outside linebackers...DJ Williams from Miami and Ian Gold from Michigan. Williams was a highly recruited tailback coming out of high school in California. He went to Miami and found the backfield full of future NFL runners (Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore). Gold is arguably the fastest LB in the history of Michigan football. He was drafted by Denver, played a year in Tampa, and returned to the Broncos. In between, he suffered a serious leg injury (knee??) and seems to show no signs. His speed is still remarkable. They can run all over the field - and bring the pain once they get to the point of attack. In the middle is former Vol, Al Wilson. Wilson is a big dude who hits harder than most players at his position because he is fundamentally sound and passionate about his work. He hits, wraps and drives.
The secondary is tight (on one side anyway). Champ Bailey and John Lynch are holding it down. Bailey's cover skills should make a QB thoughtfully assess whether he wants to go in that direction. Tom Brady threw over there with game-ending consequences. You have to challenge him, but you have to be sure. The Raiders attacked him with Jerry Porter two years ago and had amazing success. The Eagles attacked with Terrell Owens. The Steelers don't have receivers like that. This will be an interesting challenge for Hines Ward and Ben Roethlisberger.
So, what to do, what to do.
I suppose I'd come out with a diversified game plan that, believe it or not, tried to establish some core running plays. (The Broncos are generally pretty stout against the run - but they've played against sub-par competition all year. Truth be told, the fear and respect of the '05 Patriots was never warranted because they never established balance on offense and never imposed their will on defense (except against sub-par competition). In the last weeks of the season since their OT win at Dallas and loss at KC, Denver has beaten the Jets, Raiders, Bills, Ravens, and Chargers (after knocking Drew Brees out of the game). There were no playoff teams in this bunch. The Patriots would not have made the playoffs except for their membership in the woeful AFC East. The Chiefs, not a favorite of mine, had a better conference record. That said, Denver is 13-3, and worthy of a measure of respect. The schedule doesn't merit an asterisk, but it deserves some mention.)
I don't think the Steelers will be able to soften up the D-line of the Broncos. They have too many guys with physical skills. They play read and react. I would start the game with a lot of quick counts, short drops and play-action passes to accelerate the tempo of the game. You can still play a "slow" game at a fast tempo. For example, break the huddle at 12 instead of 18 seconds. Snap the ball on the first sound for a few plays to ensure that the O-line gets off the ball quickly and delivers the first blow. The key to this game could be Dan Kreider blocking in the hole against Al Wilson. Kreider needs to get to the hole in a hurry - before John Lynch gets it going and before Denver's linemen get it going. This will open the playbook for changing the cadence later in the game...for motion plays that will take longer to run and play action that will delay the rush.
A read and react defense wants to keep everything in front of them. Quick plays will keep this defense on its heels. I don't think the Steelers will be able to pass early in the game unless they can get Heath Miller single covered on the outside or hit their WRs in zone coverage over the middle. That's a risky proposition because guys like Bailey, Williams, and Gold can all fly. I also believe that the quick play calls will keep the O-line of the Steelers aggressive and in the game. Bradshaw quoted Chuck Noll in saying, "First contact wins." It means that in the trenches, the first player who makes contact should win that matchup. What better way to make first contact than to start the game running a series of plays that begin almost as soon as Ben gets under center. Forget about all the adjustments and looking over the defense. Power up and blast through. Don't let the defense set up...just go get 'em.
I'd try that for the first drive...the second drive, I'd mix it up. Use the quick counts on the pass plays and use longer counts for run plays. In this way, you can hamper the D's ability to blitz...as long as the protections are strictly inside-out and the hot receivers identify open spots in the zone. If the Broncos bring too many blitzers, the table will be set for screen plays...I prefer middle screens or TE screens against this team because of their speed on the outside. Middle screens can be devastating if the outside linebackers are taken upfield to cover tight ends or fullbacks. For example, the Steelers on second down could line up with 2 backs (Parker and Haynes) and 3 WRs...call a middle screen to Haynes (likely to be covered by Wilson) and send Parker up the field on a wheel route with either Gold or Williams...this would clear the middle for Haynes to make a one-on-one move against Wilson...if he wins, it's a 15 yard play. If he loses, it's a gain of 2 or 3.
There are going to be many opportunities for the Steelers to score points in this game, but the points will have to come from the passing game. I imagine a slugfest. If the Steelers can get a nice lead, they should be fine. They should know, however, that Shanahan is patient and will continue to run the ball even if the Broncos are trailing. The Colts were not so patient. This will be a tough game. If Ike Taylor draws Ashley Lelie on defense and keeps him out of the end zone, this could be a wrap. If he gets Rod Smith, Lelie might have better success against Townsend and/or Bryant McFadden. Still BMac did work against Reggie Wayne at the end of the Colts game, so we'll see.
I think the Steeler corners are vastly underrated. I always thought Deshea Townsend was a good player...not great, but good. Ike Taylor is the real deal. It will take the media a year or two to catch up, but his work against Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison has been excellent. Bryant McFadden is playing very well. Troy Polamalu is the best in the league at his position. I'd love the Steelers to go back to Florida State (Chris Hope and McFadden's alma mater) and take Antonio Cromartie. AC tore up his knee last year, but he could be a shut-down corner (I know, there's no such thing) in the league. He ran a 4.3 or something like that two years ago. He's a 6-footer and he can return kicks.
On a final note, this is one of the fastest Steeler teams in memory. I first got a glimpse of all this speed during a pre-season game against the Philadelphia Eagles. In the first half, the skill players for the Steelers were flying around and beating the Eagles to the punch in every facet of the game. Ike Taylor, Ricardo Colclough, Antwaan Randle-el, Bryant McFadden, Troy Polamalu, Joey Porter, James Harrison, and others were simply blurs in that game. I'd like to see that type of decisive speed in the game at Denver. I think, however, to borrow/paraphrase from John Wooden, "Quickness kills." It will be the quickness of the big boys that determines the outcome.
I like my boys to pull it out. Steelers 33, Broncos 16. The game will be much closer than the final score.
The San Diego Chargers, Denver Broncos, and New England Patriots teams that defeated the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game were all power teams. In 1994, 1997, 2000 and 2004, the Steelers played against teams with physical run defenses and lost each game because of an inability or unwillingness to pass the ball effectively and consistently. I would have liked to see more than 5 passes in the second half of last weeks game in Indy, but they did get the W - and the power of the run in the second half is compelling. Nonetheless, trench battles against phsyically strong teams will require the offensive coordinators to find a rhythm.
Play calling is much more of an art than a science. It's about having a feel for the other team, their strengths and weaknesses, the other defensive coordinator and their authentic personality and tendencies. For example, if the authentic personality of a team is to attack, you can reliably estimate what tendencies will be expressed in crucial moments. This is not so easy when the approach is more cerebral, but there are weaknesses to every approach.
Denver's defense seems to be a mix of both approaches. Denver uses a number of defensive linemen to keep the front four fresh during the game. They rotate as many as seven or eight guys in the game. The most talented of these players is Trevor Pryce. Pryce can play inside or out - and he can bull rush or speed rush. He's agile, strong and reads plays really well. He can get a strong upfield push and still hold his ground against the run. He may be the second best lineman in the league (I'll take Richard Seymour first). Pryce is not as young as he used to be, but who is.
Denver has blazing quick outside linebackers...DJ Williams from Miami and Ian Gold from Michigan. Williams was a highly recruited tailback coming out of high school in California. He went to Miami and found the backfield full of future NFL runners (Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore). Gold is arguably the fastest LB in the history of Michigan football. He was drafted by Denver, played a year in Tampa, and returned to the Broncos. In between, he suffered a serious leg injury (knee??) and seems to show no signs. His speed is still remarkable. They can run all over the field - and bring the pain once they get to the point of attack. In the middle is former Vol, Al Wilson. Wilson is a big dude who hits harder than most players at his position because he is fundamentally sound and passionate about his work. He hits, wraps and drives.
The secondary is tight (on one side anyway). Champ Bailey and John Lynch are holding it down. Bailey's cover skills should make a QB thoughtfully assess whether he wants to go in that direction. Tom Brady threw over there with game-ending consequences. You have to challenge him, but you have to be sure. The Raiders attacked him with Jerry Porter two years ago and had amazing success. The Eagles attacked with Terrell Owens. The Steelers don't have receivers like that. This will be an interesting challenge for Hines Ward and Ben Roethlisberger.
So, what to do, what to do.
I suppose I'd come out with a diversified game plan that, believe it or not, tried to establish some core running plays. (The Broncos are generally pretty stout against the run - but they've played against sub-par competition all year. Truth be told, the fear and respect of the '05 Patriots was never warranted because they never established balance on offense and never imposed their will on defense (except against sub-par competition). In the last weeks of the season since their OT win at Dallas and loss at KC, Denver has beaten the Jets, Raiders, Bills, Ravens, and Chargers (after knocking Drew Brees out of the game). There were no playoff teams in this bunch. The Patriots would not have made the playoffs except for their membership in the woeful AFC East. The Chiefs, not a favorite of mine, had a better conference record. That said, Denver is 13-3, and worthy of a measure of respect. The schedule doesn't merit an asterisk, but it deserves some mention.)
I don't think the Steelers will be able to soften up the D-line of the Broncos. They have too many guys with physical skills. They play read and react. I would start the game with a lot of quick counts, short drops and play-action passes to accelerate the tempo of the game. You can still play a "slow" game at a fast tempo. For example, break the huddle at 12 instead of 18 seconds. Snap the ball on the first sound for a few plays to ensure that the O-line gets off the ball quickly and delivers the first blow. The key to this game could be Dan Kreider blocking in the hole against Al Wilson. Kreider needs to get to the hole in a hurry - before John Lynch gets it going and before Denver's linemen get it going. This will open the playbook for changing the cadence later in the game...for motion plays that will take longer to run and play action that will delay the rush.
A read and react defense wants to keep everything in front of them. Quick plays will keep this defense on its heels. I don't think the Steelers will be able to pass early in the game unless they can get Heath Miller single covered on the outside or hit their WRs in zone coverage over the middle. That's a risky proposition because guys like Bailey, Williams, and Gold can all fly. I also believe that the quick play calls will keep the O-line of the Steelers aggressive and in the game. Bradshaw quoted Chuck Noll in saying, "First contact wins." It means that in the trenches, the first player who makes contact should win that matchup. What better way to make first contact than to start the game running a series of plays that begin almost as soon as Ben gets under center. Forget about all the adjustments and looking over the defense. Power up and blast through. Don't let the defense set up...just go get 'em.
I'd try that for the first drive...the second drive, I'd mix it up. Use the quick counts on the pass plays and use longer counts for run plays. In this way, you can hamper the D's ability to blitz...as long as the protections are strictly inside-out and the hot receivers identify open spots in the zone. If the Broncos bring too many blitzers, the table will be set for screen plays...I prefer middle screens or TE screens against this team because of their speed on the outside. Middle screens can be devastating if the outside linebackers are taken upfield to cover tight ends or fullbacks. For example, the Steelers on second down could line up with 2 backs (Parker and Haynes) and 3 WRs...call a middle screen to Haynes (likely to be covered by Wilson) and send Parker up the field on a wheel route with either Gold or Williams...this would clear the middle for Haynes to make a one-on-one move against Wilson...if he wins, it's a 15 yard play. If he loses, it's a gain of 2 or 3.
There are going to be many opportunities for the Steelers to score points in this game, but the points will have to come from the passing game. I imagine a slugfest. If the Steelers can get a nice lead, they should be fine. They should know, however, that Shanahan is patient and will continue to run the ball even if the Broncos are trailing. The Colts were not so patient. This will be a tough game. If Ike Taylor draws Ashley Lelie on defense and keeps him out of the end zone, this could be a wrap. If he gets Rod Smith, Lelie might have better success against Townsend and/or Bryant McFadden. Still BMac did work against Reggie Wayne at the end of the Colts game, so we'll see.
I think the Steeler corners are vastly underrated. I always thought Deshea Townsend was a good player...not great, but good. Ike Taylor is the real deal. It will take the media a year or two to catch up, but his work against Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison has been excellent. Bryant McFadden is playing very well. Troy Polamalu is the best in the league at his position. I'd love the Steelers to go back to Florida State (Chris Hope and McFadden's alma mater) and take Antonio Cromartie. AC tore up his knee last year, but he could be a shut-down corner (I know, there's no such thing) in the league. He ran a 4.3 or something like that two years ago. He's a 6-footer and he can return kicks.
On a final note, this is one of the fastest Steeler teams in memory. I first got a glimpse of all this speed during a pre-season game against the Philadelphia Eagles. In the first half, the skill players for the Steelers were flying around and beating the Eagles to the punch in every facet of the game. Ike Taylor, Ricardo Colclough, Antwaan Randle-el, Bryant McFadden, Troy Polamalu, Joey Porter, James Harrison, and others were simply blurs in that game. I'd like to see that type of decisive speed in the game at Denver. I think, however, to borrow/paraphrase from John Wooden, "Quickness kills." It will be the quickness of the big boys that determines the outcome.
I like my boys to pull it out. Steelers 33, Broncos 16. The game will be much closer than the final score.
WIDGETIZE