My OperaThe Long War
Tuesday, August 8, 2006 1:17:41 PM
my man cnulan hit me off with a link (below)- and I'm inserting this quote of note to highlight something of interest:
The Long War
Israeli Prime minister Ehud Olmert has stated that the Israeli offensive against Lebanon would "last a very long time". Meanwhile, the US has speeded up weapons shipments to Israel.
"There are strategic objectives underlying the "Long War" which are tied to oil and oil pipelines.
The air campaign against Lebanon is inextricably related to US-Israeli strategic objectives in the broader Middle East including Syria and Iran. In recent developments, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice stated that the main purpose of her mission to the Middle East was not to push for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but rather to isolate Syria and Iran. (Daily Telegraph, 22 July 2006)
At this particular juncture, the replenishing of Israeli stockpiles of US produced WMDs points to an escalation of the war both within and beyond the borders of Lebanon.
I've been in an ongoing conversation with my peeps over at P6 about whether or not Israel has underestimated Hezbollah and whether or not a larger game is afoot. I think our nonaligned positions can be summed up thusly:
ptcruiser would assert that Israel has clearly underestimated hezbollah and is in the midst of an unwinnable 4GW conflict. the tactics of the israelis are not sufficient to win this particular fight and there is no measure of support from the US that is sufficient to tip the balance. i hope that's a fair recapitulation of his points - he'll correct me if i am in error.
my position is that israel only appears to have underestimated hezbollah because the goal is not to end this fight quickly and decisively, but rather to drag this out and engage syria and iran into a broader fight - with the assistance of the us. i believe the us and israel want and need this fight in order to establish a formal military presence in high priority pipeline areas around the caspian sea. quite frankly, hezbollah and lebanon are beside the point (literally).
further, i believe we will see a rolling back of media coverage on this issue and the initiation of a new wave intended to change the terms and tactics. today, the financial times took this issue off the front page. cnn shifted its focus to the closing of the alaskan pipeline by BP and the related increase in gas prices. and the new york times is leading with a story about the senatorial race in connecticut. the story re: lebanon-israel is a personal/human interest story, rather than an ongoing exposition of the situation as it unfolds. i don't believe any number of katusha strikes will change the direction of media coverage. i believe the winds of change are in the air - and this story will begin to take on a different shape.
The Long War
Israeli Prime minister Ehud Olmert has stated that the Israeli offensive against Lebanon would "last a very long time". Meanwhile, the US has speeded up weapons shipments to Israel.
"There are strategic objectives underlying the "Long War" which are tied to oil and oil pipelines.
The air campaign against Lebanon is inextricably related to US-Israeli strategic objectives in the broader Middle East including Syria and Iran. In recent developments, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice stated that the main purpose of her mission to the Middle East was not to push for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but rather to isolate Syria and Iran. (Daily Telegraph, 22 July 2006)
At this particular juncture, the replenishing of Israeli stockpiles of US produced WMDs points to an escalation of the war both within and beyond the borders of Lebanon.
I've been in an ongoing conversation with my peeps over at P6 about whether or not Israel has underestimated Hezbollah and whether or not a larger game is afoot. I think our nonaligned positions can be summed up thusly:
ptcruiser would assert that Israel has clearly underestimated hezbollah and is in the midst of an unwinnable 4GW conflict. the tactics of the israelis are not sufficient to win this particular fight and there is no measure of support from the US that is sufficient to tip the balance. i hope that's a fair recapitulation of his points - he'll correct me if i am in error.
my position is that israel only appears to have underestimated hezbollah because the goal is not to end this fight quickly and decisively, but rather to drag this out and engage syria and iran into a broader fight - with the assistance of the us. i believe the us and israel want and need this fight in order to establish a formal military presence in high priority pipeline areas around the caspian sea. quite frankly, hezbollah and lebanon are beside the point (literally).
further, i believe we will see a rolling back of media coverage on this issue and the initiation of a new wave intended to change the terms and tactics. today, the financial times took this issue off the front page. cnn shifted its focus to the closing of the alaskan pipeline by BP and the related increase in gas prices. and the new york times is leading with a story about the senatorial race in connecticut. the story re: lebanon-israel is a personal/human interest story, rather than an ongoing exposition of the situation as it unfolds. i don't believe any number of katusha strikes will change the direction of media coverage. i believe the winds of change are in the air - and this story will begin to take on a different shape.
cnulan # Tuesday, August 8, 2006 3:34:52 PM
The problem for the memetic engineering contingent is making sure that the lies told pursuant to imperial governance are consistent with the political realities and just-so-stories maintained by the forces of allied governance. In this area, perhaps more than any other, USraeli PNAC-ians done phukked up and painted themselves into a wicked vicious corner.
How or even "if" they disentangle themselves from the tangled web they've woven is guaranteed to make for some must see teevee...,
cnulan # Tuesday, August 8, 2006 3:58:38 PM
The Truth Will Set You Free | August 8 2006
Temple 3Temple3 # Tuesday, August 8, 2006 4:01:33 PM
1) Assert that Israel has been unable to fight a conventional war against Hezbollah and that their strikes against defensive positions have been ineffective.
2) Since those strikes are ineffective, attack broader infrastructure elements within and across Lebanon. This will alienate more than the Shia population over time.
3) Use the growing resentment of the "war" to demonize all of Lebanon - drawing smaller and smaller distinctions (larger and larger linkages) to all Lebanese and their opposition to Israel.
4) Sustain the ground attack in Lebanon...drop incursion forces near the Syrian border (around the holidays - September/October) and draw them into an overt move.
5) Roll the entire conflagration into an epic battle between the forces of good and evil.
6) Continue to use the Lebanese and Palestinians as cannon fodder.
7) Repeat until regime change is effected in Syria and Iran - and pipeline deals are renegotiated with China.
8) Fade and exit, Stage Right.
This whole thing should take about 2-3 years.
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