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I also looked at history to see if there was any chance of these states going to democrats. The only states that I put in red that were less than 5% were Nebraska and Indiana. Indiana has never been won by a Democrat in over 40 years when LBJ won almost every state except the south. So I've left it out since not even Bill Clinton won that state in either 1992 or 1996. It COULD come into play, but it would be very close if it does and we know that Hillary won that primary. It's a toss up at best. IOW, Democrats can't rely on it. About Nebraska, there's simply no way it's going Democrat this year.

So we have 169 electoral votes left in play for both sides.

Democrats need 95 electoral votes. (56%)
Republicans need 76 electoral votes. (44%)

Let's start with Obama. We'll fill in what he is currently winning by 5% or more as well as what he is losing by 5% or more.



He's certainly made up some ground, but so has McCain.

There are now 109 electoral votes left in play.

Obama needs 63 electoral votes. (58%)
McCain needs 48 electoral votes. (44%)

It's basically a toss up so far. Obama can win, but he's going to have to work for it. The outcome is far from certain. The three swing states OH, PA & FL are in play for both McCain and Obama. Obama currently leads McCain by 4 points in PA, but trails by one in the other two.

Now let's add in where they stand in the polls today. The states where there is less than 5% difference. (edit: Obama is now losing WI against McCain by 4%)



Obama falls 6 electoral votes short and loses the White House. Even with either NM or NE, he's still one short. This is certainly not written in stone, but I show the above map to demonstrate that it is indeed too close to call.


Now we look at Hillary's map and add in the states that have more than a 5% difference. (Note that WI & MI are ties in many polls, but we take them away from Hillary to put her at a disadvantage).



Hillary has gained a lot of ground from the very first map.

There are now 60 electoral votes left in play.

Hillary needs 22 electoral votes. (37%)
McCain needs 40 electoral votes. (67%)

Note that I wanted to put Hillary at a disadvantage here. As I said earlier, I made her lose WI & MI according to the current polls (even though it's a tie in many polls). I also put WA and OR in the toss up category. Would KY & MO go for Hillary? The polls say she's behind by 2 and ahead by 1 point respectively. Also, the reason I'm leaving them in as toss ups is because the Democrats (Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton) that have won the White House in the last 40 years won them both every time. In every other case where Democrats have lost, they also lost KY & MO. That Hillary is having a strong showing there should not be dismissed so easily. In any case, I leave them as toss ups.

Here is Hillary's map with the current polls used to fill in the rest.



She wins with 21 extra electoral votes. Note that this is without MI & WI & KY. She could lose either OH or PA and still win. Even with losing FL, she can make up the difference (KY or the combination of NH & NM). Take out MO and she still wins with 10 electoral votes to spare. That means she could lose either OR or IA as well and she still win. Let's show her map without MO & IA.



She still wins. That's taking away at LEAST 5 states that she's winning or is competitive in. Again, I want to put her at a disadvantage to see what she would get.


Let's compare both of their chances more closely.

Here are Obama's toss up states assuming he takes PA.

FL: 27
OH: 20
MI: 17
WI: 10
CO: 9
NM: 5

42 electoral votes to go.

88 remaining.

Obama MUST get 48% of those electoral votes.

MI and WI look like they will go to Obama. (27)

That leaves 15 electoral votes.

Where does he get them?

FL: 27
OH: 20
CO: 9
NM: 5

CO & NM combination is impossible. That's 1 short of what is needed. That would be devastating, no? Coming one short. Though McCain would also be one short. Not sure what would happen in that case. (edit: Congress choses the President and VP, see below). This means for a clear win, he absolutely NEEDS OH or FL to make up the difference. If Obama can't get either FL or OH, he will lose and the polls are not strong for him, especially FL will be difficult considering he said no to a revote there. McCain is ahead by one in each of those states. It's still possible, but uncertain.

So the problem is that ALL his missing electoral votes are concentrated in ONE place (either FL or OH). It's do or die. There's no buffer or backup for Obama at all. He has to win one of those two SPECIFIC states.


For Hillary, she'll have these toss ups to fight for:
WA: 11
OR: 7
NM: 5
IA: 7
MO: 11
KY: 8
NH: 4
CT: 7
MI: 17
WI: 10

22 electoral votes to go. (And WA should not be difficult cutting it down to 11 electoral votes to go.)

87 remaining up for grabs.

Hillary must win 25% of them.
With WA in her column, she needs 15% of what remains. (11 electoral votes to go).

She can win with WA, NH and CT. (22 electoral votes).

(edit: OR is now safely in Hillary's column. If we add WA as well, she needs 4 electoral votes out of 76 (5%). She can easily get CT or NH for the rest.)

Mathematically, it's virtually impossible for her to lose the White House if she were the nominee. WA & CT are already in Hillary's column right now with NH being very close.

OR, MO, IA are also currently in her column.

That's a 47 electoral vote buffer where she can get them from many different locations. And I'm sure Hillary will fight for MI, WI, KY and NM as well.

Worst case scenario is that Hillary wins the White House.
Best case scenario for Obama is a toss up and a fight for either OH or FL if McCain doesn't make gains in PA.

In the end, it still comes down to PA, OH and FL for Obama.

For Democrats, this should be the deciding factor. Who can win for certain? From the facts, Hillary should be an easy choice for the Democrats if the objective is winning the White House.

UPDATE

Check this out. I was flipping through old electoral maps and noticed something strange. Here is Obama's map again.



Now Al Gore's from 2000.



Can you spot the difference? Here's a hint. (I overlapped them one on top of the other)



If that doesn't freak you out, I don't know what will. John Kerry's map is almost identical too.


UPDATE #2

In the event of a tie, Congress chooses the President and VP. The House chooses the President. But there is only one vote per state. Each delegation from each state would vote for that state and the majority from the delegation would be the vote submitted for President for that state. This means whomever has the most states would win. Democrats have 26 states, so that's good news for Obama and Hillary as long as everyone shows up.

For VP, it's the Senate that decides. Each senator gets one vote and the majority selects the VP. The Senate is currently evenly split because Joe Lieberman announced his support of Senator McCain.

If the House is tied, then the VP chosen by the Senate becomes the President. If this were the case, it'd be an interesting scenario as the Senate would be tied. No provision is made to break this tie. Chaos would ensue and the Universe would cease to exist. Even if the House is not tied, chosing the VP with the current Senate is impossible unless Bernie Sanders (Ind.) breaks from the Democrats or if a party member votes for the other side (unlikely).

UPDATE #3 Strategy for McCain against Obama

Right off the start, it should be mentioned that if McCain gets both of MI & WI, McCain wins. Obama can carry both swing states of OH & PA and a bunch of other states like CO, NH & NM and he'd still lose. Not a great way to start a fight for the White House.

I then say McCain should concentrate on getting three states that have low electoral vote counts in order to mix and match with the other states. NH(4), NM(5) & CO(9) should be of prime importance for McCain. At minimum, getting NM would be great because it means McCain can grab either OH or PA and he wins. With NH alone, only PA gives McCain the win, but OH creates a tie (Obama would be chosen President by the House though the VP could be chaos).

If McCain gets 9 electoral votes from NH & NM together or from CO alone, his options get even better. He can add MI to the list of choices. Take one of those three (MI, OH or PA) and McCain gets over 271 electoral votes. Though currently unlikely, he also has the option of getting OR & WI (or IA & WI) instead of the traditional swing states for the win. You could also mix and match two of OR (or IA), WI & MI for the win. Like I said, LOTS of options. Obama has to watch both OR and IA and make sure he keeps his lead. They don't seem to be at any risk now, but if I were McCain, I wouldn't leave any strategy unchecked.

Getting all three of NH, NM and CO gets even more evil for McCain. At this point, McCain can grab ONE of OR, IA, WI, MI, OH & PA. ONE OF THESE!!! OR & IA would probably be out of reach, yet that avenue should be checked out come this November because they both have 7 electoral votes, exactly what's needed for McCain to reach exactly 270.

Say Obama takes all three of NH, NM and CO (Obama's BEST case scenario) then McCain still has a decent chance to win. He needs two of WI, MI, OH & PA. If he splits these states, McCain wins. So holding on to three of WI, MI, OH & PA as well as ALL of NH, NM and CO is Obama's BEST CASE SCENARIO to win the White House. And he MUST make sure that none of NH, NM and CO falls to McCain. That's a tight race for Obama.

Therefore I predict that if Obama is the nominee, you will see a HUGE contest in the following states: NH, NM, CO, OH, WI & MI. If I were to bet, I'd say NH, NM, MI & OH would be prime targets. With NH & NM in McCain's column, his easiest target is either MI or OH for the win. So look at MI & OH for the biggest fights with WI as backup.

McCain has all sorts of diversionary tactics he can use. Really, the only way he loses is if he falls asleep during his entire campaign. When you can win and still leave OH & PA to your opponent, you know you've got a sweet deal.

UPDATE #4 Best Case Scenarios

Obama:



Buffer of 19 electoral votes. That's cutting it close. Other than CO & NM, this is the ONLY map where Obama wins. Lose anything else and it's game over. I don't see how it's possible for Obama to hold onto the above map unless McCain sits home.

Hillary:



Buffer of 71 electoral votes. She could lose ALL three swing states OH, PA & FL and still win with 273. Think about that for a second. Losing would be very difficult.

UPDATE #5 Swing States

Here is a map of the swing states. I then added in who won each of these states in the primaries. Recents polls put Oregon safely in the Dem camp. I also put WA in the safe Dem camp. You may subtract 11 from Hillary if you wish, but I don't realistically see Hillary losing Washington. Missouri was problematic. Obama won that primary by 1%. But it has since gone safe Republican against Obama while Hillary has moved up in the polls. Do I give it to Obama or Hillary? I left it out for now.

In the case of Michigan, I had difficulty here too. Do I award it to Hillary because she's won it by a bigger margin than all the uncommited combined? Or do I give it to Obama who is polling ahead of Hilary? There haven't been any recent polls in Michigan, but I gave it to Obama anyhow. (Update: I have decided to stick with the primary results. Until there is a revote, I cannot change the results. On top of that, you could give ALL the uncommitted votes to Obama and Hillary still won by more than 10%.)



They both start off with 200 electoral votes (added WA, OR & CT from earlier maps).

Note that not all states are up for grabs by both candidates. Obama cannot get KY, WV, FL, NH & MO. His maximum is 89 extra electoral votes. Hillary cannot get CO. Her maximum is 124 extra electoral votes.

Max total electoral votes:

Obama: 289
Hillary: 324

Max margin of victory:

Obama: 19
Hillary: 54 (71 w/ MO & AR)

I don't care what way you spin it, Obama only has a buffer of 19 electoral votes. There are ZERO other states availble to him.

UPDATE #6 Note to McCain

Hey McCain (or one of his advisors), if you happen to read this and you're up against Obama, DO NOT FORGET THIS MAP!!!



Oregon can be swapped for Iowa too.

If you're an Obama supporter (or an SD) and you don't see what's devastating about the above map or don't think it's realistic, then you need to take a good cold hard look at the path to victory for Obama. Sit down and work it out. Don't listen to what I've said. No one will be looking. Prove it to yourself.

UPDATE #7 Hillary's Voters

What would happen if Hillary's voters stay home or vote for McCain?

(Note: I'm not showing the following maps to put down Obama as some people are claiming. I'm showing this to show how foolish it is for Obama's campaign and his surrogates like Donna Brazile on CNN to say that Hillary's voters are not necessary. Both sides need ALL democrats in November. But if Obama doesn't want Hillary's supporters, here's a look into the future come this November if Obama is the nominee.)

Light blue is leans Obama (less than 5% for Obama).
Light red is leans McCain (less than 5% for McCain).

Stay Home: 1 out of 4
for McCain: 1 out of 4
Total: 2 out of 4 (50% of Hillary's voters don't vote for Obama)



Stay Home: 1 out of 8
for McCain: 1 out of 8
Total: 2 out of 8 (25% of Hillary's voters don't vote for Obama)



Stay Home: 1 out of 16
for McCain: 1 out of 16
Total: 2 out of 16 (12.5% of Hillary's voters don't vote for Obama)



Disaster waiting to happen.

UPDATE #8 ccAdvertsing Poll

Not sure as the accuracy of this poll or even who they are, but I thought it would be interesting to update my maps with this new data.

May 12, 2008: I have since looked around at who exactly ccAdvertising is. They seem to be used only by right wing candidates. Bush used them against McCain. Huckabee and Romney have also used them. What they do is ask extremely off base questions to put ideas into the heads of voters. It worked for Bush who used it against McCain in the 2000 Republican primaries. Is McCain using them? I don't know. What we do know is that this company has only ever been used by right wing candidates to push negative polling questions about their opponents. From what I've read, they are effective and often accurate. As you can see below, they've hit both Hillary and Obama in the polls. We can only hope their effect is overstated.

From May 1, 2008 through May 5, 2008, ccAdvertising completed a survey to a combined total of 90,000 homes in California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania (10,000 homes from each state) extracted from the ccAdvertising database.

I updated those 9 states in my maps. A few didn't change anything. But the ones that did were shocking. I also updated a few states with new polls that came out recently.

We'll show Hillary first this time.



Doesn't look good, eh? She can still win though. She needs to get two of these: MI, WI & IL. These are all polling very close with MI as a tie, so it's a likely scenario.

Well, take a look at Obama.



KAPOW McCain style!

WTF happened there?

Results for McCain vs Hillary and McCain vs Obama.
Scores are how much Hillary or Obama are ahead of McCain.
+is a win for Hillary or Obama.  -is a loss.

              Hillary  Obama    Difference (for Obama from Hillary)
California    +15.82%  +12.88%  -2.94
Colorado      -5.44    -1.98    +3.46
Florida       -11.46   -25.52   -14.06
Illinois      -2.29    +9.23    +11.52
Missouri      +3.97    -10.61   -14.58
New Hampshire -5.9     -6.67    -0.77
New York      +7.88    +1.31    -6.57
Ohio          +1.02    -18.18   -19.2
Pennsylvania  +7.51    -5.95    -13.46

If these polls are true, it's sick sick sick. Hillary retains OH & PA. But Obama is bleeding support everywhere except in his home state of Illinois and in Colorado.

Florida: Obama loses by 25.52% to McCain.
New York: Obama is ONE lonely point ahead of McCain.
Ohio: Obama loses by 18.18% to McCain.
Pennsylvania: Obama loses by 5.95 to McCain with a 13.46% lower than Hillary.

These polls reflect exactly what Hillary supporters have been saying. OH & FL are 100% out of his reach. Working class voters don't want Obama. And these polls show exactly what I've been trying to show. Hillary can lose a few states and still remain competitive. Obama cannot. Without Ohio, Obama has ZERO chance.

I hope this isn't what Obama meant by "Change".