Quirks

I've just been roused from my bed. I am not an happy chappie. Imagine if there were a spate of these phases. I looked for some 4's recently and the most were pairs of them.

These are the times to watch out for on a table off lunar phases:
02:00, 08:00, 14:00 and 20:00.

Here are some bad runs:

2008

22 Jan 13:35 *

29 Feb 02:18 **

28 Apr 14:12 **

20 May 02:11 **

3 Jul 02:19 **

18 Jul 07:59 **

8 Aug 20:20 **

7 Sept 14:04 **

29 Sept 08:12 **

14 Oct 20:03 **

12 Dec 16:37 *

2009

18 Jan 02:46 *

26 Jan 07:55 **

9 Feb 14:49 *

25 Feb 01:35 *

4 Mar 07:46 **

11 Mar 02:38 *

26 Mar 16:06 **

2 Apr 14:34 *

17 Apr 13:36 *

1 May 20:44 *

17 May 07:26 *

22 Jun 19:35 *

22 Jul 02:35 **

4 Sept 16:03 **

12 Sept 02:16 **

9 Nov 15:56 **

2 Dec 07:30 *

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.html

Two stars are worse than one. But that's not all there is to it any tropical cyclones can turn the clock back by as much as 4 or 5 hours I don't rweally know. But give a saffir Simpson scale rise of one F1 as worth 1 hour for a rule of thumb then

A super typhon of F4 can make a lunar phase of 06:00 produce tornadoes for that part of the track that reaches such an intensity.

THe same is true of earthquake wave trains. When 14 wave fronts reach the same spot at the same time you get a 7.0 magnitude quake which throws the clock back in a similar manner.

So if you are thinking of setting up a data base to discredit me you'd better make sure you are au fait with what I am doing. Not like some who have made silly accusations aftr never having so much as looked at what I am trying to do.

(I put that latter in for my sparring partners on Usenet as I intend to post this on there.)

Speaking of amelioration, there is a saving grace for me in that the spells coming might occur with tropical cyclones. A nice bog standard hurricane will change an uncomfortable period into some wet weather. (Just what we need.)

OK it's been a piece of cake so far. No cramps nor nothin.

wtxs31 pgtw 262100
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen pearl harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone 10s (dominic) warning nr 006//
rmks/

max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt

forecasts:

max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt

remarks:

tc 10s has turned southward in response to an upper-level
trough to its southwest. the system will make landfall and weaken.

50 knots is only a storm but apparently it is enough. On the Beaufort Scale (mph first followed by knots) it isn't even an F11:

10. 55-63. 48-55. Storm
Very high waves with long over-hanging crests. The resulting foam, in great patches, is blown in dense white streaks along the direction of the wind. On the whole the surface of the sea takes on a white appearance. The 'tumbling' of the sea becomes heavy and shock-like. Visibility affected.

11. 64-72. 56-63. Violent Storm.
Exceptionally high waves (small and medium-size ships might be for a time lost to view behind the waves). The sea is completely covered with long white patches of foam lying along the direction of the wind. Everywhere the edges of the wave crests are blown into froth. Visibility affected.

12. 73-83. 64-71. Hurricane.
The air is filled with foam and spray. Sea completely white with driving spray; visibility very seriously affected.

I've learned a lot today.

5.8 M. 2009/01/26. @ 19:12 UTC. Fox Islands, Aleutians, Alaska.

What happened there?

All week until this afternoon on the Unisys loop... (which by the way has an hurricane archive going back to 1851. Pity it's only for the North Atlantic:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2007/index.html)...there has been a mixture of lows and highs leaving town. But from about 1 pm it was high pressure all the way.

Of course there are other parts of the system to be accounted for Canada and Mexico. By I can't see me being party to that data for a while.

I can't say much else about the frequencies and distributions of the rest of the quakes on here ATM:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

There aren't any large pairs of quakes and the smaller stuff is relatively mild. There are too many of the larger quakes occurring to impact storm breeding.

And when Dominic decomposes there will be even more. It wasn't long lasting wenough or powerful enough to produce mmag 6's.

So that's that for now.

I haven't given the American maps the time they deserve but I am only barely able to manage keeping abreast of the N Atlantic one i know so well (hah!)

It appears the different colours that track over the plots are not snow rain and fog but different amouts of rain.

Lilac is flooding, green is ordinary rain. It's on the home page if I look. Which I may well, just do.

One day.

It appears the different colours that track over the plots are not snow, rain and fog but different amouts of rain.

Purple is flooding, green is ordinary rain. It's on the home page if I look. Which I may well, just do.

A good example is online now:
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

Misty with a touch of frost this morning. The sort of weather that is likely with a phase at 06:00 not 08:00, I think.

So something has knocked it back 2 hours. That is a majotropical low or a large magnnitude earthquake or of course a serious tornado cell.

I'm not feeling any twinges so I may be entirely wrong. I don't watchthe TV news anymore after the Israeli propaganda war struck home. So I can't say how accurate weather forecasts were last night.

It may be lots of tremors or it may be volcanic. I don't think I get much disfunction for them.

http://files.myopera.com/Weatherlawyer/albums/683657/thumbs/27th%20January%202009%2007%20Unisys%20loop.png_thumb.jpg - In the loop it is very clear but this image -which is all that could be imported, you have to look carefully.

In the middle of the the large white cloud there is precipitation gong from blue through plum to green.

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/albums/show.dml?id=683657

I haven't got any of this right yet. It's hazy with that sort of mist that lights the sky over a town. Fox Islands is getting a lot of small tremors so that's the swarms back...

No sign of any large storm forming. And with all those mid range quakes, I don't suspet a larger one in the offing.

I'm going to book the future 08:00's as soft misty spells. (IIRC next time.)

What's the opposite of a Cassandra? Loser?

The North Atlantic looks decidedly negative this morning. That's the way I'm feeling so perhaps that's the general trend. Some people are never satisfied ae they?

The highest High on the North Atlantic Chart is 1033 millibars for the Azores High and 1026 mb over the tip of Scandinavia.

The deepest Low is a 981 south of Greenland. Watching these developments will give me something to do.
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/bracka.gif

I never noticed that last week's NAO was all that negative, what with deep lows doing strange things and all, so from that it follows there will be considerably more volcanic activity this week in next Wednesday's report.

This was last week's vocano report from the Smithsonian:

21 January-27 January 2009

New Activity/Unrest:
Callaqui, Central Chile
Dieng Volcanic Complex, Central Java (Indonesia)
Nevados de Chillán, Central Chile
Redoubt, Southwestern Alaska

Ongoing Activity:
Barren Island, Andaman Is
Chaitén, Southern Chile
Galeras, Colombia
Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka
Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
Nevado del Huila, Colombia
Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island
Popocatépetl, México
Rabaul, New Britain
Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
Soufrière Hills, Montserrat
Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan)
Tungurahua, Ecuador

http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?wvarweek=20090121

Vulcanology is very much the little sister to any of the other geo-sciences. I can't imagine what it's student intake any year must be and what sorts of jobs they would take at the end of their education.

2009-01-28 16:19
Summary of Current Unrest

Since last fall, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has detected increasing volcanic unrest at Redoubt Volcano.

Starting on Friday, January 23, the level of seismic activity increased markedly, and on Sunday AVO raised the Aviation Color Code to ORANGE and the Volcano Alert Level to WATCH.

On the basis of all available monitoring data AVO regards that an eruption similar to or smaller than the one that occurred in 1989-90 is the most probable outcome. We expect such an eruption to occur within days to weeks.
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php

These are the phases leading up to the eruption at Mt St Helens. (Why is it called Mt St Helens, when there is only one of them.) The numbers under the dates are there to help you see which harmonic the phases fit absent criticality.

1980

2.Jan 09:02
3

10 Jan 11:50
6

17 Jan 21:19
3.3

24 Jan 13:58
2

1 Feb 02:21
2.3

9 Feb 07:35
1.5

16 Feb 08:51
3

23 Feb 00:14
6.25

1 Mar 21:00
3

9 Mar 23:49
6

16 Mar 18:56
1

23 Mar 12:31
6.5

31 Mar 15:14
3.25

8 Apr 12:06
6

15 Apr 03:46
3.75

22 Apr 02:59
3

30 Apr 07:35
1.5

7 May 20:51
3

14 May 12:00
6

21 May 19:16
1.25

*******

2008

8 Jan 11:37 6.
6

15 Jan 19:46
1.75

22 Jan 13:35
1.5

30 Jan 05:03
5

7 Feb 03:44
3.75

14 Feb 03:34
3.5

21 Feb 03:31
3.3

29 Feb 02:18
2.3

7 Mar 17:14
5.25

14 Mar 10:46
4.75

21 Mar 18:40
6.6

29 Mar 21:47
3.75

6 Apr 03:55
4

12 Apr 18:32
6.5

20 Apr 10:25
4.5

28 Apr 14:12
2

5 May 12:18 6.
3

12 May 03:47
3.75

20 May 02:11
2

28 May 02:57
3

3 Jun 19:23
1.3

10 Jun 15:04
3

18 Jun
17:30
5.5

26 Jun 12:10
6

3 Jul 02:19
2.3

10 Jul 04:35
4.5

18 Jul 07:59
2

25 Jul 18:42
6.6

1 Aug 10:13
4.25

8 Aug 20:20
4.3

16 Aug 21:16
3.25

23 Aug 23:50
5

30 Aug 19:58
2

7 Sept 14:04
2

15 Sept 09:13
3.5

22 Sept 05:04
5

29 Sept 08:12
2.25

7 Oct 09:04
3

14 Oct 20:03
2

21 Oct 11:55
6

28 Oct 23:14
5.25

6 Nov 04:04
4

13 Nov 06:17 6.
3

19 Nov 21:31
3.5

27 Nov 16:55
5

5 Dec 21:26
3.5

12 Dec 16:37
4.6

19 Dec 10:29
4.5

27 Dec 12:23
6.3

*******

2009

4 Jan 11:56
6

11 Jan 03:27
3.25

18 Jan 02:46
2.77

26 Jan 07:55
2

2 Feb 23:13
5.25

9 Feb 14:49
3

16 Feb 21:37
3.6

25 Feb 01:35
1.5

4 Mar 07:46
1.75

11 Mar 02:38 2.
6

18 Mar 17:47
5.75

26 Mar 16:06
4

2 Apr 14:34
2.5

9 Apr 14:56
3

17 Apr 13:36
1.5

25 Apr 03:23
3.3

1 May 20:44
2.75

9 May 04:01
4

17 May 07:26
1.5

24 May 12:11
6

31 May 03:22
3.3

7 Jun 18:12
6

15 Jun 22:15
4.25

22 Jun 19:35
1.5

29 Jun 11:28
3.5

7 Jul 09:21
3.3

15 Jul 09:53
4

22 Jul 02:35
2.5

28 Jul 22:00
4

6 Aug 00:55
1

13 Aug 18:55
1

20 Aug 10:01
4

27 Aug 11:42
5.6

4 Sept 16:03
4

12 Sept 02:16
2.25

18 Sept 18:44
6.75

26 Sept 04:50
6

4 Oct 06:10
6

11 Oct 08:56
3

18 Oct 05:33
5.5

26 Oct 00:42
6.6

2 Nov 19:14
1.26

9 Nov 15:56
4

16 Nov 19:14
1.25

24 Nov 21:39
3.6

2 Dec 07:30
1.5

9 Dec 00:13
6.25

16 Dec 12:02
6

24 Dec 17:36
1.6

31 Dec 19:13
1.25

26 Sept 04:50
6

4 Oct 06:10
6

11 Oct 08:56
3

18 Oct 05:33
5.5

26 Oct 00:42
6.6

2 Nov 19:14
1.26

9 Nov 15:56
4

16 Nov 19:14
1.25

24 Nov 21:39
3.6

2 Dec 07:30
1.5

9 Dec 00:13
6.25

16 Dec 12:02
6

24 Dec 17:36
1.6

31 Dec 19:13
1.25

Day; month;
Hour divided by 6 and the minutes to the neares quarter or third of an hour (from 1 to 7.)

The lack of Mag 5 quakes for the last day or so indicates that a storm is brewing:
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg Shows a ot of convergence and the makings of a cyclone over Queensland at the time of writing.

As it is already on shore though... There again the number of fairly large magnitude quakes just under 5 M and the mere 10 or 11 hour gap, does rather point to it all remaining at most a storm, maybe just a gale.

I get the impression that the weather forecasts for Britain after this weekend are somewhat uncertain. Which is a sign of undergound activity.

I wonder what I am going to do when they cotton on that difficulties in model runs can be rectified with some seismic input.

OTOH, it might be a bonus when they start working on figures that make such corrections. A lot of the stuff is pretty obvious.

That will be intteresting.

I keep promising to post charts to corroborate what I say in these threads andnever finally get around to it.

I get dejected when my stuff vapourises. It's worse than when I get things right. When I get things right I find myself thinking: "What next?" and losing interest.

When I get it wrong I feel like I have been slapped and lose interest.

I am only interested in stuff I think I don't know. I suppose I aught to be interested in stuff I know I don't know but it is just too much for me to deal with.

I hate losing. And I hate being wrong.

I think I pull something out of the ashes of this one. It concerns mists and in previous generations fogs. We don't have the climate we once had.

The present generation argues it is global warming. More likely it is the clean air act. For that is all it ever was a charade.

The smopg particles go higher into our atmosphere and are smaller, but they are still there, assisted perhaps by space debris. It rmemains to be seen what aluminium oxides and human excrement can accomplish at height.

We've never done that before.

THe spell is about to change radically from the 2nd. And things look to be pushing in early. The USA is covered in high pressure, Highs are tripping up from the Azores/Bermuda region to Greenland and the one over Notrthern Europe has grown massive from the little region at the tip of Scandinavia it had been earlier in the week.

So yet, failure is par for my course but it looks like an interesting development. Next week's spell is over 2 days early.

Now there's interesting.

Why I should hate being wrong about this spell beats the tar out of me. I aught to be grateful.

I've had an easy time of it this week compared to what might have been.

Seattle had what amounts to a large quake for the region earlier this week:
4.5 M. 2009/01/30 @ 13:25. 47.8 N.122.6 W. Seattle-Tacoma, Washington.

I'd like to be able to say which coastal fronts were the ones to look out for for the next time. But the fact is it was all of them (or none -it's impossible to prove. Until next time and we have the same charts.)

The rest of the largish quakes on the current list are the sort that arrive with spells at a different time of lunar phase. I can't remenber which but I think they are 6 or 12 o'clock ones.

The latest North Atlantic Chart is showing a new low (978 mb) approaching from the south. I wish I had looked elsewhere to see where these things might have been coming from.

At any rate it looks like continuing straight up towards Iceland and on into the Arctic. I have been complacent.

Pity I came to my senses too late. That might have been interesting.

The Unisys Charts show a system pouring south from British Columbia towards Florida, where the pressure is unusually high. Apart from the flow going the wrong way (it is moving south-east when it should be going north-west) this too is a set-up that I should have looked at outside the box.

The BC Lows or clouds are to be found curving down to the mid west USA where it goes up to the Canadian border on the coast and heads for us in Northern Europe.

The earlier part of this spell it had been curving up around the Great Lakes. Now their seems to be another parallel stream running NE from out of Mexico.

The daily FNMOC chart isn't much help as the frames at 24 hour intervals are too lumpy to follow developments. 6 hour intervals are ideal. Too much information has to be processed by the brain watching hourly loops.

Something to bear in mind for next time.

Last post:

Possible brief tonado touchdown reported 19:50. Beaumont, Jefferson, Texas.
30.1 degrees North. 94.1 degrees West. At highway 105 and major(?) no report of damage.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/090201_rpts.html

Judging by my sinews stiffening about 10 am this morning I think it likely. Not even a real twinge.

Got away with it this spell. Good-oh.

*******

2009/01/31
5.4 M. @ 16:30, 19.4 S. 69.0 W. Tarapaca, Chile.
5.1 M. @ 14:40. 22.9 S. 69.9 W. Antofagasta, Chile.

Close enough to be twins so no further developments with the present developments:

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600ZJAN2009-020600ZFEB2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311951ZJAN2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: >>>>>
(1) AT 311800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ELLIE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.7S 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST OF CAIRNS AUSTRALIA, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 312100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. <<<<<<
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA

Wouldn't you think they'd get their fax sorted out by now? This sort of shouting is 30 years out of date.

Oops!
Missed this pair:

5.1 M. @ 09:33. 37.9 N. 142.4 E. Off the E coast of Honshu, Japan.
5.7 M. @ 21:52. 36.7 N. 141.1 E. Near the E coast of Honshu, Japan.

Definitely a baby killer. Goodbye Ellie, you little gurgler you.