WEATHER TREND: MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THU ??? STAY TUNED: WE ARE MOVING ON MARCH 1ST 2014 !!!

CLICK HERE TO WATCH PHIL'S 2011 PREDICTION FROM GOBBLER'S KNOB IN PUNXSUTAWNEY PA !!!



THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY BUT RATHER BREEZY AND VERY COLD LO: 23 HI: 36

FRIDAY: INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT BREEZY AND STILL VERY COLD LO: 19 HI: 39

FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN JUST AFTER DAWN ... EXPECT BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PLAIN RAIN ... LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30'S

SATURDAY: HAPPY NATIONAL WEATHERPERSON'S DAY ... CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND VERY COLD WITH A WINTRY MIX EARLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD RAIN TOWARD MIDDAY ... THE RAINFALL MAY POSSIBLY END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW ... THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NEAR 90 PERCENT LO: 32 HI: 37

SUNDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND RATHER MILD FOR A CHANGE LO: 34 HI: 44

MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND VERY MILD LO: 32 HI: 48

TUESDAY: CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND NOT NEARLY AS MILD WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND OR WET SNOW ... THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NEAR 40 PERCENT AT THIS TIME LO: 30 HI: 40

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY BUT RATHER BREEZY AND MUCH COLDER LO: 26 HI: 34

THURSDAY: CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND VERY COLD WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ... GENERALLY A ONE TO THREE INCH STORM IS EXPECTED BUT I STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT THAT CHANCE FOR SOMETHING LIKE A FOUR TO EIGHT INCH STORM !!! LO: 17 HI: 32

FORECAST NOTES: MY GUT FEELING IS THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTION AND DEPTH RIGHT ... THE COLD LOOKS TO BE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH IN TEXAS AND A BIT SLOWER IN IT'S MOVEMENT TO THE EAST ATLEAST AS FAR AS THE CORE OF THE COLD IS CONCERNED ... I ALSO SEE SOME OTHER FACTORS THAT MOST METS MAY BE OVERLOOKING ... LIKE THE NAO THAT IS TRENDING MORE NEGATIVE BY NEXT WEEK ON EURO AND GFS AS WELL AS BOTH OF THE MODELS ENSAMBLE MEAN RUN SO I THINK THAT ANY MILD WEATHER - LIKE 50'S - NEXT WEEK WILL BE A FALSE SPRING AND I ALSO DO NOT THINK IT WILL LAST FOR MORE THAN THREE TO FIVE DAYS BEFORE MORE WINTER LIKE WEATHER RETURNS BUT LIKELY NOT AS COLD AS NOW BUT PERHAPS COLD ENOUGH IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN !!!

"WEATHER OR NOT"

FORECASTER: SCHLEY


JUST OUT FROM TOM TASSELMYER, A METEOROLOGIST ON NBC'S WBAL TV 11 IN BALTIMORE: "STILL, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS MARYLAND, PENNSYLVANIA, AND NEW JERSEY WITH OUR IN-HOUSE RPM MODEL SHOWING A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY 4 AM OR 5 AM THURSDAY. ANY CHANGE IN THE PHASING OF THE JET AND/OR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD CHANGE THE SNOW POTENTIAL … STAY TUNED!"
(ABOUT 800 PM EST ON TUESDAY 02/08/11)

FROM JUSTIN BERK AT WMAR TV 2 IN BALTIMORE: ABOUT THAT SNOW STORM ... THERE ALREADY IS A SURPRISE. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL - THE NAM - AS SHOWN ABOVE COMPARED TO THE ACTUAL SURFACE MAP. LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING DID NOT HAVE THE SNOW IN ARKANSAS YET ACCORDING TO A TWEET FROM THE WEATHER CHANNEL - THERE IS 18"-20" SNOW ON THE GROUND NOW !!! OUR MORNING ... ANCHOR CHARLES CROWSON WHO IS FROM AR, HAD REPORTS OF ATLEAST 8"-10". HMMMMM ... IF IT CAN SCOOT FARTHER EAST BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CAN SHOVE IT FARTHER SOUTH, THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF. THAT MEANS THAT THE STARTING POINT IS FARTHER NORTH, IT IS MORE DEVELOPED, AND THE RESULT COULD BE A SURPRISE. I AM NOT SAYING ANYTHING IS CERTAIN YET ... THERE STILL IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF BALTIMORE. HOWEVER, STAND BY ... THIS STILL IS WORTH VERY CLOSE ATTENTION AND I WILL SHARE MY THOUGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER I CAN SEE HOW IT IS DEVELOPING.

UPDATE: WHAT DO YOU HAVE? FLURRIES, LIGHT SNOW, NOTHING? HERE ARE A FEW THINGS I'VE BEEN LOOKING AT. THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING, INDICATING THAT THE AIR IS NOT AS DRY AS THIS MORNING, AND THE LAST FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES HELPED TO SATURATE THE AIR A LITTLE. THE 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SHOW HOW A STORM IS DEVELOPING, AND WHERE THE LOW MIGHT TRACK. THIS SUPPORTS THE PUSH NORTH, NOT OFF OF THE COAST AND STAYING SOUTH. I HOPE THE MESSAGE GOT OUT. REGARDLESS OF A BIG SURPRISE OR JUST ENOUGH TO BE A ROAD PROBLEM IN THE MORNING, I HAVE BEEN wWANTED YOU TO BE AWARE THIS MIGHT HAPPEN. THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL HOURS AWAY, AND SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK. I'LL CHECK BACK AROUND 8 PM.
(ABOUT 1000 AM AND UPDATED AT 730 PM ON WEDNESDAY 02/09/11)