My OperaTO SNOW OR NOT TO SNOW ... THAT IS THE QUESTION ???
Sunday, January 9, 2011 10:28:43 PM
*** SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM TONIGHT BUT END BETWEEN 12 AND 2 AM WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM - UPDATED AT 10 AM ON 01/11/11 ***
TODAY: MOSTLY SUNNY BUT RATHER WINDY AND ALSO VERY COLD LO: 18 HI: 34
MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY BUT RATHER BREEZY AND STILL VERY COLD LO: 21 HI: 31
TUESDAY: CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW ... THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AND I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER AS WELL (TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE BALTIMORE AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS GETTING AS MUCH AS 10 OR 12 INCHES OF SNOW) LO: 23 HI: 28
WEDNESDAY: CLOUDY WITH A FEW MORNING SNOW SHOWERS AROUND ... FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT RATHER WINDY AFTERNOON LO: 24 HI: 32
THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND STILL VERY COLD LO: 20 HI: 28
FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND NOT AS COLD LO: 23 HI: 33
NOTES: (A) THE "MONEY IN THE BANK" STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BALTIMORE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ... AND (B) I'M STICKING TO MY JANUARY 3RD FORECAST FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES ... I MEAN WHY BACK DOWN NOW ??? AT THE VERY LEAST I STILL HAVE MODEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FORECAST FROM MULTIPLE WEATHER MODELS THAT ARE SHOWN BELOW !!!
*** Justin Berk, Meteorologist Notes: (A) As I write this, there is a chance the coastal Low is bombing out (1mb drop per hour) if so.... look out - Updated As Of 815 PM On 01/11/11 And (B) Local Winning Snow Totals For Maryland: Bel Air 4.5", North East 5.5", Frederick 4", Hereford 3.5", Ellicott City 3", Glyndon 3" And BWI 2" - Updated As Of 530 AM On 01/12/11 ***
*** The Capital Weather Gang, Note: The back edge of the snow is now in central Loudoun & Frederick County with about one more hour of snow in DC, Fairfax, and Montgomery Counties, And two more hours off to the northeast in PG, Howard, and Baltimore Counties - Updated As Of 945 PM On 01/11/11 ***
"WEATHER OR NOT"
FORECASTER: SCHLEY
HERE IS A WATER WAPOR IMAGE OF THE STORM LOCATED OVER TEXAS AS OF 0Z ON 01/09/11:
THE WEATHER CHANNEL SNOWFALL TOTALS MAP ISSUED AT 18Z ON 01/10/11:
HERE IS THE MODEL SUPPORT I HAVE FOR THE FORECASTED SNOWSTORM ON TUESDAY:
THE 0Z GFS ENSAMBLES FROM 01/09/11
THE 12Z JMA MODEL FROM 01/09/11
THE 0Z NAM MODEL FROM 01/10/11
THE 12Z NAM MODEL FROM 01/10/11
AND ALSO THE 12Z NAM MODEL SIMULATED RADAR FROM 01/10/11
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Monday, January 10, 2011 4:51:07 AM
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
802 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE A THIN DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS OTHER
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRES IS XPCTD TO HANG ON IN THE MID ATLC RGN MAJORITY OF
THE DAY MON. HIGH CLDS FM THE GULF STATES LOW XPCTD TO BEGIN
STREAMING INTO THE CWA FM THE S DURG THE AFTN. COLD AIR WL RMN
SITUATED OVR THE AREA - HIGH TEMPS IN THE U20S IN THE
HIGHLANDS...LM30S MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LOPRES WILL BE MOVING NEWD OFF SC COAST MON NGT...WITH SECONDARY
CNTR OF SFC LOPRES FORMG ACRS TN VLY. LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING UPR TROF TO THE WEST AND
DIMINISHING VORT MAX LIFTING NWD TWD THE MID-ATLC WILL QUICKLY BRING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ALL CWA AFTR SUNSET MON. SHUD BE ENUF LIFT AND
MLVL MOISTURE TO OVERCOME FAIRLY DRY LLVLS TO ALLOW FOR LGT SN TO
MOVE SSW TO NNE INTO THE CWA DURG THE ERY MRNG...POSSIBLY REACHING
METRO DC TWD SUNRISE TUE. WITH SEPARATE LOW PRESSURES SHARING
MOISTURE AND DISRUPTING DEEP LYR VERTICAL MOTION ACRS THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD HVY SNOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE TWO MERGE
AND COMBINE LIFT/MOISTURE.
ATTM...THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER THE SYSTEMS ARE
N/E OF RGN AS COASTAL LOW APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND AND VORT MAX
ASSOCIATED NRN BRANCH SYSTEM ROUNDS ITS BASE AND ACCELERATES ENEWD
INTO PA. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE...THE MID-ATLC...AND IN
PARTICULAR OUR CWA...WILL RMN SANDWICHED BTWN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND
EXPERIENCE LGT THOUGH ACCUMULATING SN FOR MAJORITY OF EVENT. USING
ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QUITE CHALLENGING TO FIND A SINGLE
MEMBER RUN THAT PROJECTS MORE THAN 6 INCHES IN THE CWA. SVRL
MODELS SUGGEST MIX/CHANGE TO IP/ZR ACRS SERN ZONES...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SN/IP MIX FOR LWR SRN MD TUE AFTN.
BY LT TUE...LOPRES XPCD TO PASS DELMARVA AND QUICKLY BCM DOMINANT
SFC CYCLONE TUE NGT...RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING. DRY SLOT SHUD ERODE
PRECIP FROM SW-NE DURG THE NGT...THO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/PIVOTING OF BANDING BACK TWD NE MD.
ALSO...UPSLOPE SNOW SHUD INCRS TUE NGT ACRS W FACING SLOPES OF
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...WHICH MAY CONT FEW SVRL DAYS.
STRONG NW FLOW WED/THU SHUD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NRML...BUT DRY...EXCEPT
FOR AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREA. UPR TROF RMNS DOMINANT...SO MINOR
VORT MAXES MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF CLOUDS...THOUGH CWA WILL BE
INCREASINGLY UNDER DOMINANCE OF SFC RDG BUILDING IN FROM WEST.
HIPRES POISED TO PASS OVHD FRI AND MOVE E OF RGN ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVR THE AREA TNGT AND MON. WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE.
HIGH CLDS WL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOPRES IMPACTS WIDE AREA OF ERN CONUS TUE/TUE NGT...BRINGING XTDD
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS/SN AS EARLY AS PRE-DAWN TUE AND CONTG INTO TUE
NGT. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...THO AMOUNTS
UNCERTAIN. BY WED MRNG...HIPRES BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS...ALONG
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS...EXPECTED THRU THU NGT.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA RMNS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THRU MDNGT...AND THEN THE
LOWER PTMC AND CHES BAY S OF BALT THRU 6 AM MON.
LOPRES WILL APPROACH THE WATERS ON TUE...BRINGING PERIOD OF SN...AND
POSSIBLE SLEET...TUE INTO TUE NGT. TWDS END OF PRECIP...WINDS WILL
BCM NW AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THUS...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS
EARLY AS TUE NGT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-535-
536-538-542.
&&
$$
LASORSA/WOODY!/SBK
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Monday, January 10, 2011 12:39:32 PM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
403 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011
MDZ005>007-010-011-013-014-101715-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.110111T1700Z-110112T1100Z/
CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
ANNAPOLIS
403 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.
* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID
20S TUESDAY NIGHT.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Tuesday, January 11, 2011 3:24:09 AM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011
MDZ005>007-010-011-013-014-111045-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0001.110111T2100Z-110112T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.110111T2100Z-110112T1100Z/
CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
ANNAPOLIS
939 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
4 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE
HEAVIEST BETWEEN 9 PM TUESDAY AND 3 AM WEDNESDAY.
* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID
20S TUESDAY NIGHT.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST 15
TO 25 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
&&
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Wednesday, January 12, 2011 12:59:25 AM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
524 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011
MDZ005>007-010-011-014-120630-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110112T1100Z/
CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
ANNE ARUNDEL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
ANNAPOLIS
524 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY SNOW. A GLAZE OF ICE
POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME MORE STEADY BY EARLY EVENING...AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ENDING BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM. AT TIMES SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW.
* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID
20S TONIGHT.
* WINDS...EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...BECOMING
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
&&
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Wednesday, January 12, 2011 1:01:20 AM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
537 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011
DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-052>057-501-502-
120300-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON
537 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011
...BAND OF SNOW TO AFFECT THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING...
A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE BALTIMORE
AND WASHINGTON METRO THROUGH 7 PM. PORTIONS OF THIS BAND WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS BEFORE 7 PM...AND MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE METRO AREA THROUGH 8 PM. AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EMBEDDED IN
THIS BAND WILL DROP A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH IN ISOLATED
AREAS...WITH AT LEAST A COATING TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE MILE OR LESS UNDER
IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POCKETS OF
SLEET HAVE ALSO AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS
OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
IF TRAVELING THIS EVENING...BE PREPARED TO ENCOUNTER A PERIOD OF
SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAUSE SLIPPERY AND
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Wednesday, January 12, 2011 2:32:24 AM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011
MDZ005>007-010-011-014-120800-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110112T0800Z/
CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
ANNE ARUNDEL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
ANNAPOLIS
912 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
WEDNESDAY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES.
* TIMING...ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM.
* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 25 TO 30.
* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
&&
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Wednesday, January 12, 2011 5:11:20 AM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1101 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011
MDZ005>007-010-011-014-120800-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110112T0800Z/
CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
ANNE ARUNDEL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
ANNAPOLIS
1101 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
WEDNESDAY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES.
* TIMING...ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM.
* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 25 TO 30.
* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
&&