WEATHER TREND: MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THU ??? STAY TUNED: WE ARE MOVING ON MARCH 1ST 2014 !!!

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
CLOSER THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT WITH THE INITIAL BANDS PUSHING ACROSS THE
CATOCTINS AFTER 9 PM AND TOWARD THE BALTIMORE METRO AREAS
BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ENDING BY MID MORNING ALONG THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.
* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
* WINDS...SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

WHAT IS GOING ON IN EASTON ???

DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND
CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 12 PM ON 01/20/11

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
WILMINGTON CLOUDY 36 21 54 NW10 30.08F WCI 28
DOVER MOSUNNY 39 23 53 NW8 30.06F WCI 34
GEORGETOWN SUNNY 39 23 52 VRB5 30.08F
EASTON MOSUNNY 104 28 7 NE5 30.11F HX 97
PATUXENT MOSUNNY 41 24 51 NE9 30.09F
OCEAN CITY SUNNY 38 26 62 E8 30.09F WCI 32
WALLOPS ISLAND PTSUNNY 43 25 49 W6 30.09F
SALISBURY SUNNY 43 23 45 CALM 30.09F

FXUS61 KPHI 220158
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND GENERALLY PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TUESDAY...AND MAY MOVE UP SLOWLY JUST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
A RENEWAL OF VERY COLD AIR WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME JET STREAM-INDUCED CIRRUS HAD FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE STRATOCUMULUS WAS ENCROACHING ON SUSSEX COUNTY NEW
JERSEY FROM THE NORTH...SO CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NORTH WERE NUDGED
UP A BIT. WINDS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING, AND AS THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP...EVEN AS SOME PLACES HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THE NEW SNOW
COVER NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS ON
THE LOWER DELMARVA...AROUND 10 OR SO IN THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA
AREA, AND NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NORTHWESTER NEW JERSEY. READINGS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO. THE SLIGHTLY COLDER MAV MOS
GUIDANCE WAS USED TO POPULATE THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO A CONTINUED WEATHER
PATTERN THAT IS BRINGING AIR FROM EASTERN SIBERIA OVER THE NORTH
POLE...THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...THEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE U.S. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST AS COLD...IF NOT
COLDER...THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WON/T MAKE IF FEEL ANY WARMER EITHER. AN
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY ON SUNDAY, WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE
COLDER MAV MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED TO POPULATE THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH A MIX OF MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE USED AT THE END.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON MONDAY NIGHT, A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST, REACHING
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA AND VICINITY FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR
FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE, COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
TUESDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD,
POSSIBLY BRINGING OUR REGION ANOTHER WINTER STORM FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW IN OUR
REGION, WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

AS THE STORM LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IT
SHOULD REMAIN COLD IN OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE MAY BE A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS THIS EVENING, THEN JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH TO
AROUND 6 OR 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 6 OR 8
KNOTS IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR. COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE GRADUALLY
OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY ENDS ON DELAWARE BAY AT 400 AM AND ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS AT 800 AM.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS NET EFFECT ONCE IT PASSES WILL BE FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME STRONGER AGAIN ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BACK
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE MODELING TODAY WAS
FORECASTING A PRETTY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM AND MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER OR NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. BUT
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND HOW SPECIFICALLY THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND IMPACT OUR AREA WATERS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI

FXUS61 KLWX 220714
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
214 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. A COASTAL LOW
LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 30 ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED SO JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
TO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM SITUATION FM WHAT WE WERE SEEING
24 HRS AGO. THE MAIN ATTN LAST NGT WAS TO THE PTNL CSTL STORM
NEXT TUE/WED ...AND THAT RMNS THE SAME NOW. ALSO 24 HRS AGO WE
WERE WRITING ABT THE DISCONTINUITY BTWN THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND
THAT CONTINUES AS WELL. GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NE W/ THE LOW
POSITION...MAYBE 500 MILES AHD OF THE ECMWF. THIS MAKES THE
CONFIDENCE LVL LOW IN WHAT'S TO OCCUR 4-5 DAYS HENCE.

B4 WE GET TO THAT AN UPR LVL SHORT WV WL TRACK ACROSS NY STATE SUN
MRNG. ONLY SENSIBLE WX WL BE FM A RETURN OF NW WINDS BEHIND THE
SHORT WV WHICH WL ONCE AGAIN ENGAGE THE LAKE EFFECT/ UPSLOPE
MACHINE. THIS WL LKLY BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT AS HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE MID ATLC BY SUN EVE. MAIN STORY SUN NGT WL BE
ANOTHER NGT OF COLD TEMPS W/ LOWS RANGING FM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE HIGHLANDS TO MU TEENS IN THE CITIES. HIGHS MON IN THE 20S..
THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE COLDEST WK OF THE YR...AND THESE
HIGHS WL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG BLO NORM.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIANCE IN MDL SOLNS FOR NEXT TUE-WED I'LL REFRAIN
FM MAKING ANY CHGS. WE ARE CURRENTLY FCSTG CHC OF SNOW W OF I-95
TUE-WED...W/ A WINTRY MIX LKLY IN THE CITIES/E OF I-95.

AND IF THERE ARE QSTNS ABT NEXT TUE-WED IT'S HARD TO HV MUCH
CONFIDENCE BYND THAT. AS PRVS SHIFT HIGHLIGHTED - THE ONE
LIKELIHOOD IS THAT TMEPS WL RMN BLO NRML THRU NEXT FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

IN THE XTND VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN-MON. THERE IS A PSBLTY FOR WINTRY
WX NEXT TUE-WED BUT DETAILS RMN VERY SKETCHY ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN SCA
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORITONS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU ERY SUN...WITH SCA WINDS LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT SUN. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE-
WED W/ A PSBL STORM TRACKING UP THE ERN SEABOARD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530-531-538-539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540-541-543.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BWI LAT= 39.18 LON= -76.67 ELE= 154

00Z JAN22
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SAT 00Z 22-JAN -5.1 -17.1 1015 37 4 0.00 534 523
SAT 06Z 22-JAN -7.5 -16.0 1017 39 9 0.00 535 522
SAT 12Z 22-JAN -7.9 -13.5 1018 37 17 0.00 534 521
SAT 18Z 22-JAN -4.0 -12.9 1016 32 29 0.00 533 521
SUN 00Z 23-JAN -6.0 -10.7 1015 46 24 0.00 533 522
SUN 06Z 23-JAN -6.6 -11.0 1014 47 37 0.00 535 524
SUN 12Z 23-JAN -5.4 -13.5 1016 46 5 0.00 537 525
SUN 18Z 23-JAN -1.4 -15.7 1020 34 3 0.00 538 523
MON 00Z 24-JAN -5.2 -14.8 1024 37 16 0.00 540 521
MON 06Z 24-JAN -7.6 -12.8 1028 43 26 0.00 542 521
MON 12Z 24-JAN -9.2 -11.7 1031 47 16 0.00 545 522
MON 18Z 24-JAN -3.3 -10.0 1030 36 67 0.00 546 523
TUE 00Z 25-JAN -5.6 -7.8 1030 54 82 0.00 549 526
TUE 06Z 25-JAN -5.7 -4.8 1028 78 96 0.00 550 528
TUE 12Z 25-JAN -5.2 -3.9 1026 88 85 0.00 551 531
TUE 18Z 25-JAN 4.7 -2.8 1022 69 59 0.00 552 535
WED 00Z 26-JAN 2.5 -0.5 1017 94 18 0.00 553 539
WED 06Z 26-JAN 3.4 0.5 1009 98 97 0.19 551 543
WED 12Z 26-JAN 5.6 4.4 992 98 80 1.13 542 549
WED 18Z 26-JAN 2.6 -0.3 983 96 88 0.60 530 543
THU 00Z 27-JAN 3.2 -3.9 994 82 91 0.53 533 538
THU 06Z 27-JAN 1.3 -4.9 1002 69 51 0.03 534 533
THU 12Z 27-JAN -2.7 -4.0 1008 73 6 0.00 539 532
THU 18Z 27-JAN 1.8 -5.3 1010 55 3 0.00 538 530
FRI 00Z 28-JAN -4.4 -5.2 1012 73 9 0.00 538 529
FRI 06Z 28-JAN -8.1 -5.6 1015 81 19 0.00 537 525
FRI 12Z 28-JAN -10.7 -6.3 1016 81 21 0.00 536 524
FRI 18Z 28-JAN -2.0 -5.9 1016 53 25 0.00 536 523
SAT 00Z 29-JAN -4.5 -4.9 1017 64 44 0.00 539 526