My OperaTHUNDER TO CONTINUE AS WE CHILL DOWN A BIT !!!
Monday, August 15, 2011 4:03:10 PM
NEW: STORM TOUR 3 STORM CHASE PHOTOS
Next 6z Update: NAM 3:30a | GFS 5a | GGEM 6a | UKMET 7a | Euro 8a
Next 12z Update: NAM 9:30a | GFS 11a | GGEM 12p | UKMET 1p | Euro 2p
Next 18z Update: NAM 3:30p | GFS 5p | GGEM 6p | UKMET 7p | Euro 8p
TODAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HOT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LO: 72 HI: 87
TUESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HOT WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS LO: 70 HI: 85
WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY BUT HAZY AND STILL RATHER HOT LO: 68 HI: 86
THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE LO: 70 HI: 84
FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HOT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LO: 72 HI: 86
SATURDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY BUT HOT WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LO: 70 HI: 87
SUNDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY BUT HAZY AND STILL RATHER HOT LO: 72 HI: 86
MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL RATHER HOT WITH AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE LO: 69 HI: 84
TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY BUT NOT NEARLY AS HOT LO: 68 HI: 83
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND STILL SOMEWHAT HOT LO: 67 HI: 84
THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER HOT WITH A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LO: 69 HI: 86
FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL RATHER HOT WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LO: 70 HI: 88
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY:
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70's AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70's THIS WEEKEND
"WEATHER OR NOT"
FORECASTER: SCHLEY
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** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Monday, August 15, 2011 4:05:18 PM
WTNT32 KNHC 151440
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011
...GERT BEGINNING TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...CENTER
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 63.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE
EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Monday, August 15, 2011 4:08:24 PM
THE NWS HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BALTIMORE AREA THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON 08/14/11
THE NWS HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BALTIMORE AREA THRU MONDAY MORNING 08/15/11
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Tuesday, August 16, 2011 1:06:41 PM
ABNT20 KNHC 161146
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, August 21, 2011 3:30:17 AM
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, August 21, 2011 3:30:52 AM
WTNT34 KNHC 210241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011
...IRENE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 59.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER TO CABO ENGANO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER TO
CABO ENGANO
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON SUNDAY. IRENE COULD APPROACH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATE MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, August 21, 2011 3:32:09 AM
THE MARYLAND DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT HAS ISSUED A CODE
ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT SATURDAY FOR
THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA.
A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT MEANS THAT AIR POLLUTION
CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY BECOME UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE
GROUPS. SENSITIVE GROUPS INCLUDE CHILDREN...PEOPLE SUFFERING FROM
ASTHMA... HEART DISEASE OR OTHER LUNG DISEASES...AND THE ELDERLY.
THE EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION CAN BE MINIMIZED BY AVOIDING
STRENUOUS
ACTIVITY OR EXERCISE OUTDOORS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON GROUND-LEVEL OZONE AND FINE
PARTICLES...VISIT WWW.MDE.STATE.MD.US/AIR...OR CALL THE MARYLAND
AIR QUALITY HOTLINE AT 4 1 0...5 3 7...3 2 4 7.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Tuesday, August 23, 2011 2:29:54 PM
THE NWS HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA UNTIL 430 PM EDT ON SUNDAY 08/21/11 (ISSUED AS OF 230 PM EDT ON SUNDAY 08/21/11)
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Tuesday, August 23, 2011 2:30:30 PM
WTNT34 KNHC 231150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...CORE OF IRENE HEADED TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
From the NHC ... "... Maximum sustained winds 100mph ... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY"
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Wednesday, August 24, 2011 2:28:48 AM
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Wednesday, August 24, 2011 3:06:02 AM
WTNT34 KNHC 232353
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...IRENE BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HAITI.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Wednesday, August 24, 2011 5:57:47 PM
WTNT34 KNHC 241742
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE A LITTLE STRONGER...EYE OVER CROOKED ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Thursday, August 25, 2011 4:33:13 PM
WTNT34 KNHC 251454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...CORE
APPROACHING ABACO ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 76.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Thursday, August 25, 2011 11:00:20 PM
.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND THE MARYLAND PORTION
OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND TIDAL POTOMAC.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...HARFORD...
MONTGOMERY...HOWARD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...ANNE
ARUNDEL...CHARLES...ST. MARYS...CALVERT...PRINCE
WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ARLINGTON/FALLS
CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...STAFFORD...SPOTSYLVANIA AND KING GEORGE.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 6 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.0N...LONGITUDE 77.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 820 MILES SOUTH
OF WASHINGTON DC...OR ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH OF BALTIMORE MD.
STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 115 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON AROUND 12 AM EDT...OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 60 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL UPWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WERE TO OCCUR...THE
MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF ONSET IS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE PASSES NEARBY...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SINCE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.
A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA.
...INLAND FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE
READY TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.
FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Thursday, August 25, 2011 11:01:32 PM
WTNT34 KNHC 252051
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY
HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM
SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND
PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST
REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND
LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORE.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Saturday, August 27, 2011 4:34:27 AM
.NEW INFORMATION...
POSITION OF HURRICANE IRENE FOR 8 PM EDT.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND THE MARYLAND PORTION
OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND TIDAL POTOMAC.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ST.
MARYS.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...HARFORD...
MONTGOMERY...HOWARD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...ANNE
ARUNDEL...CHARLES...CALVERT...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS
PARK...FAIRFAX...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...STAFFORD...
SPOTSYLVANIA AND KING GEORGE.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE
IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.1N...LONGITUDE 77.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH
OF WASHINGTON DC...OR ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF BALTIMORE MD.
STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS
100 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON ALL
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST. IRENE WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE PERIOD OF WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON AROUND 12 AM EDT...OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 60 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
65 MPH.
MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MANY MOBILE
HOMES... ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE CANOPIES...AWNINGS...OR
CARPORTS. POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY SUSTAIN MINOR WALL DAMAGE
AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. OTHER HOMES MAY HAVE MINOR ROOF AND
SIDING DAMAGE. SOME LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BE TOSSED AROUND AND
MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. A FEW POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED
DOWN RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. SOME LARGE BRANCHES OF
HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS
WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS.
FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.
FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Saturday, August 27, 2011 3:55:46 PM
REGION INCLUDING THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...
.NEW INFORMATION...
ADDED LOW WATERSPOUT THREAT TO THE MARINE AREA OF DRUM POINT TO
SMITH POINT...AND THE TANGIER SOUND. UPDATED STORM SURGE
INFORMATION FOR COASTAL AREAS. UPDATED 9AM TRACK AND POSITION
INFORMATION.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND THE MARYLAND PORTION
OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND TIDAL POTOMAC.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ST.
MARYS.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...HARFORD...
MONTGOMERY...HOWARD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...ANNE
ARUNDEL...CHARLES...CALVERT...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS
PARK...FAIRFAX...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...STAFFORD...
SPOTSYLVANIA AND KING GEORGE.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.7N...LONGITUDE 76.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH
OF WASHINGTON DC...OR ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH OF BALTIMORE MD.
STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS
85 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON ALL
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST. IRENE WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST
TODAY...AND WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE PERIOD
OF WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON AROUND 12 PM...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
60 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MANY MOBILE HOMES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE CANOPIES...AWNINGS...OR CARPORTS.
POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY SUSTAIN MINOR WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL
ROOF REMOVAL. OTHER HOMES MAY HAVE MINOR ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE.
SOME LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BE TOSSED AROUND AND MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. A FEW POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN
RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. SOME LARGE BRANCHES OF
HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS
WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BLOWOUT CONDITIONS.
FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.
FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Saturday, August 27, 2011 3:56:49 PM
WTNT34 KNHC 271448
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
...IRENE BATTERING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 76.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND FROM MERRIMACK RIVER NORTHWARD
TO EASTPORT MAINE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 87 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 63 MPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, August 28, 2011 1:43:52 AM
REGION...INCLUDING THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED LOCATION OF HURRICANE IRENE.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND THE MARYLAND PORTION
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ST.
MARYS.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR TANGIER
SOUND AND THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH
POINT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...HARFORD...
MONTGOMERY...HOWARD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...ANNE
ARUNDEL...CHARLES...CALVERT...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS
PARK...FAIRFAX...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...STAFFORD...
SPOTSYLVANIA AND KING GEORGE.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF DRUM
POINT AND FOR ALL ADJACENT INLETS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE BALTIMORE-
WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND FOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.5N...LONGITUDE 75.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 180 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON DC...OR ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BALTIMORE MD. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR
20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 80 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON ALL
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST. IRENE WILL MOVE NORTHNORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE HURRICANE.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON AROUND 1 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
...WINDS...
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MANY MOBILE HOMES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE CANOPIES...AWNINGS OR CARPORTS. POORLY
CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY SUSTAIN MINOR WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF
REMOVAL. OTHER HOMES MAY HAVE MINOR ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE. SOME
LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BE TOSSED AROUND AND MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DAMAGE. A FEW POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. SOME LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL
BE SNAPPED. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR
UPROOTED.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING RAIN
OCCURS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THIS SURGE COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A
BLOWOUT TIDE.
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, August 28, 2011 1:45:28 AM
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* MUCH OF THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
* THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
* HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE IRENE WILL BRING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF UP TO 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
* HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RAPID RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS. DO
NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, August 28, 2011 1:47:39 AM
BALTIMORE CITY...HARFORD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE AND NORTH CENTRAL ANNE
ARUNDEL COUNTIES...
AT 844 PM EDT...SEVERAL ROADS WERE REPORTED TO BE FLOODED AND CLOSED
IN BALTIMORE. RADAR INDICATES AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THE LAST TWO HOURS IN BALTIMORE...WITH OVER AN INCH IN NORTHERN
HARFORD COUNTY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL RANGES FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES
SO FAR. RAINFALL AROUND A HALF INCH IS FALLING EVERY HOUR FROM
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINBANDS. SMALL STREAMS ARE RISING AND
THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE EVENING.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FALLSTAFF...
WHITE MARSH...TOWSON...TIMONIUM...PLEASANT HILLS...PERRYMAN...PERRY
HALL...PARKVILLE...KINGSVILLE...HAVRE DE GRACE...FALLSTON...CARNEY...
BEL AIR AND ABERDEEN
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, August 28, 2011 1:50:35 AM
BALTIMORE CITY...HARFORD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE AND NORTH CENTRAL ANNE
ARUNDEL COUNTIES...
AT 844 PM EDT...SEVERAL ROADS WERE REPORTED TO BE FLOODED AND CLOSED
IN BALTIMORE. RADAR INDICATES AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THE LAST TWO HOURS IN BALTIMORE...WITH OVER AN INCH IN NORTHERN
HARFORD COUNTY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL RANGES FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES
SO FAR. RAINFALL AROUND A HALF INCH IS FALLING EVERY HOUR FROM
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINBANDS. SMALL STREAMS ARE RISING AND
THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE EVENING.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FALLSTAFF...
WHITE MARSH...TOWSON...TIMONIUM...PLEASANT HILLS...PERRYMAN...PERRY
HALL...PARKVILLE...KINGSVILLE...HAVRE DE GRACE...FALLSTON...CARNEY...
BEL AIR AND ABERDEEN
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, August 28, 2011 1:51:57 AM
BALTIMORE CITY...HARFORD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE AND NORTH CENTRAL ANNE
ARUNDEL COUNTIES...
AT 844 PM EDT...SEVERAL ROADS WERE REPORTED TO BE FLOODED AND CLOSED
IN BALTIMORE. RADAR INDICATES AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THE LAST TWO HOURS IN BALTIMORE...WITH OVER AN INCH IN NORTHERN
HARFORD COUNTY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL RANGES FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES
SO FAR. RAINFALL AROUND A HALF INCH IS FALLING EVERY HOUR FROM
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINBANDS. SMALL STREAMS ARE RISING AND
THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE EVENING.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FALLSTAFF...
WHITE MARSH...TOWSON...TIMONIUM...PLEASANT HILLS...PERRYMAN...PERRY
HALL...PARKVILLE...KINGSVILLE...HAVRE DE GRACE...FALLSTON...CARNEY...
BEL AIR AND ABERDEEN
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, August 28, 2011 1:53:05 AM
WTNT34 KNHC 280053
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
900 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
...IRENE LASHING THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA WITH HEAVY RAINS AND HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.9N 75.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE WILLIAMSBURG-
JAMESTOWN VIRGINIA AIRPORT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET
HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE
PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS
RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING
HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT
BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, August 28, 2011 5:54:58 AM
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