My OperaCURRENT OBSERVATIONS / SNOW TOTAL 0.0"
Sunday, February 21, 2010 4:40:50 AM
ECMWF (EUROPEAN) FORECAST MODEL:
Always Check The Time And Date Of Each Product, Remember To Hit Refresh For The Latest Run
ECMWF: Courtesy of College of Du Page):12Z RUN
-00 -24 -48 -72 -96 -120 -144 -168 -Loop -200mb Wind Speed
-00 -24 -48 -72 -96 -120 -144 -168 -Loop -500mb Heights, Winds
-00 -24 -48 -72 -96 -120 -144 -168 -Loop -700mb Winds
-00 -24 -48 -72 -96 -120 -144 -168 -Loop -850mb Winds
-00 -24 -48 -72 -96 -120 -144 -168 -Loop -850mb Temperature, Surface MSLP
-
ECMWF: Courtesy of College of Du Page):00Z RUN
-00 -24 -48 -72 -96 -120 -144 -168 -Loop -200mb Wind Speed
-00 -24 -48 -72 -96 -120 -144 -168 -Loop -500mb Heights, Winds
-00 -24 -48 -72 -96 -120 -144 -168 -Loop -700mb Winds
-00 -24 -48 -72 -96 -120 -144 -168 -Loop -850mb Winds
-00 -24 -48 -72 -96 -120 -144 -168 -Loop -850mb Temperature, Surface MSLP -
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Saturday, February 5, 2011 1:09:31 PM
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Saturday, February 5, 2011 1:11:58 PM
2009-2010 SEASONAL SNOWFALL % OF NORMAL: 229% NEW YORK 471% PHILADELPHIA 474% BALTIMORE (BWI) 394% WASHINGTON DC (DULLES) 392% WASHINGTON DC (NATIONAL)
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, February 6, 2011 8:59:14 PM
Watching Martian Clouds Go By On March 24, 2008
Image courtesy: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Cornell/ASU/Texas A&M/Navigation camera
Opportunity turned its rover eyes skyward to observe clouds drifting overhead that look like cirrus clouds on Earth -- featherlike formations composed mostly of ice crystals. By looking at the clouds, Opportunity learns about seasonal and daily weather patterns on Mars. Scientists want to understand how water vapor is transported around the planet. For example, on the extremely cold red planet, surface ice warmed by sunlight can briefly turn to vapor that rises into the atmosphere and then quickly cools to form ice crystals again, either in clouds or back on the ground. Scientists also estimate wind speed and direction based on the movement of the clouds. It definitely gives you the sense of what it might feel like to sit back and watch clouds on Mars.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, February 6, 2011 9:05:13 PM
THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE NAO EXPLAINED:
THE STORM SURGE MODEL FOR PUBLIC AWARENESS:
Acronyms And Abbreviations:
1. CAD= Cold Air Damming
2. WAA= Warm Air Advection
3. FROPA= Frontal Passage
4. QPF= Quantative Precipitation Forecast
5. MECS= Major East Coast Storm
6. SECS= Significant East Coast Storm
7. GOM= Gulf Of Mexico
8. NAO= North Atlantic Oscillation
9. PV= Polar Vortex
10. OTS= Out To Sea
11. ZR= Freezing Rain
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, February 6, 2011 9:09:48 PM
A LOOK AT HURRICANE FLOYD ON RADAR: 09/16/1999
A 3D Look At The Baltimore Tornado:
While it has yet to be confirmed by the National Weather Service, the radar data shows a circulation within the storm that hit Baltimore may have produced a tornado Tuesday night.
The radar clearly showed a circulation center that moved across the city of Baltimore at the same time damage was reported in the Parkville area of Baltimore county.
According to the radar data, winds around the tornado were over 65 mph which were consistent with the damage of trees being knocked down and roofs being pealed back.
The National Weather Service will provide the tornado classification on the EF scale after that make the damage assessment.
The storm was part of a squall line that developed in North Carolina and raced northeast Tuesday night.
The images below are from the storm that hit Parkville. The 3D image shows the actual tornado circulation through the depth of the storm.
Radar of the Storm just before it hit Parkville
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, February 13, 2011 3:38:18 AM
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Wednesday, September 14, 2011 2:29:35 PM
-Winter Weather: An alberta clipper is expected to move from Washington state into Mn then through IL into the Ohio Valley on Saturday and this is 2 days out. Please explain the sitaution and include this in your article: Where is this coming from, how this will occur, how much snow, how much ice, when, timing, where (specific). BE SPECIF AND IN DETAIL.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ON THURSDAY A RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL MONTANA BEFORE IT PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF DRY AND POWDERY BUT FLUFFY SNOWFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH A LOCALIZED FIVE OR SIX INCH AMOUNT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD LIKELY REACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PEOPLE IN THE CHICAGO AREA MEASURING ONLY TWO OR THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL MAINLY DUE TO THE CLIPPER'S INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD INDIANAPOLIS ON SATURDAY AND LIKELY REACH SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD TWO AND THREE INCH SNOW TOTALS. AS THE CLIPPER RIDES OVER THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS IT MAY WEAKEN A BIT AS THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND REDUCED MOISTURE SUPPLY START TO STAVE THE SYSTEM OF MOST OF IT'S ENERGY SUNDAY MORNING THUS MAKING SNOW TOTALS DROP TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT THE CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THAT SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF THE WHITE STUFF IF ANY AT ALL. EARLY ON MONDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRESS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND OFF THE COAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING CAPE COD MONDAY NIGHT WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW WITH IT'S RENEWED MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE ATLANTIC. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US OFTEN FOR ANY FORECAST CHANGES THAT ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO ANY CHANGES IN THE CLIPPER'S PATH AND SPEED OR IT'S INTENSITY THAT MAY EITHER INCREASE OR DECREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
"WEATHER OR NOT"
FORECASTER: SCHLEY
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Tuesday, January 3, 2012 5:26:31 PM
By Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
NOAA Communications & External Affairs
National Hurricane Center
I see you doing a lot of things around here.
My title is Techniques Development Meteorologist. The primary thing I do is work with the hurricane-specific computer models to get a little more into the details than we do in an operational sense. But I like to get involved in other activities and learn from the veterans.
Is this part of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)?
Yes, I initially came to NHC under HFIP. Then, (Technology and Science Branch meteorologist) Colin McAdie retired and I got his position. So, I'm no longer technically under HFIP, but I still work a lot with the program.
You're a problem-solver?
I dig down into the models and look for possible problems in them. Then I communicate with the people in Washington DC at the (NOAA) Environmental Modeling Center that develop the models to try to get a feedback going to work towards some improvements. Ideally, this feedback leads to better hurricane forecasts. But it's a lot easier to find problems than it is to solve problems.
In your experience, what is the greatest problem with the models?
None of them are doing a really good job at representing the nuances of the actual hurricane. This goes back decades, but most of the models just put in some kind of generic rotating vortex without a whole lot of attention to details. In the past, that's all we could do because we lacked good data, but I think that's the area where we will grow a lot in the next decade or two.
How are we going to do that?
We have the standard reconnaissance aircraft and we are working to get that data into the models, which will give us more detail. But also, satellites are becoming more advanced, and we are making better use of the data that the satellites give us. As this progress continues, we can get a better structure of the hurricane.
Do you think the GOES-R satellite will help make that leap?
There's a good chance. These next-generation satellites will help a lot. But there is a long way to go to get the data into the models and use them properly.
What are your meteorological roots?
Same story, different day. I grew up in Texas, the Dallas area. I'd sit on the porch with the Dad and watch the storms roll in. I'd walk outside into a hailstorm with an umbrella, trying to find the biggest hailstone. I was about 10 years old, so no fear. I didn't even think of the fact that a baseball-size hailstone can go right through the umbrella. As these squall lines would come through, there would be the calm before the storm and then the wind and temperature would change. To any curious kid, it's like "what is the world is going on?"
How do you make the leap from high plains thunderstorms to tropical meteorology?
Maybe I burned myself out on thunderstorms. I went to the University of Oklahoma and chased storms and tornadoes for four years, and probably drove about ten thousand miles - I might be underestimating that. When I finished OU, there was the chance to continue with tornado research as a Masters candidate, or try something new. I had an offer for grad school at the University of Maryland and my potential advisor there was a hurricane modeler. I wanted to see the world and keep learning about severe weather, so I chose the move to (Washington) DC. After graduation from OU, I packed two suitcases and rode a Greyhound bus - after that trip I vowed never to complain about a delayed flight ever again.
They make movies out of stories like this.
It's like something out the 1950s! I got dropped off in downtown DC, kind of looked around, and that's when the culture shock set in. Long story short, I lived in DC for six years and finished up my Masters and Ph.D. at the University of Maryland.
This job at NHC is your first job after school?
It is, and it's a great start. I've been here about a year and half; it's been fun so far and I've learned a lot.
You were a Hurricane Support Meteorologist this past season, correct?
The HSM program has been very good for me. As I said, I spent six years in graduate school doing research, writing papers about hurricanes, and you think you know all about hurricanes. Well, forecasting a hurricane is quite a different task than researching a hurricane. Working with the folks in operations has been good for me, because I did not even know what I didn't know before I came here.
One of the HSM duties is to assist with media inquiries. You were on duty during Hurricane Irene.
It's is always a challenge to tailor the words, having come from research background. It's harder than I thought it would be, but I am learning fast.
So, where do you see yourself going?
That's a good question. I very rarely set my sights on any one particular goal. I prefer to keep learning constantly and let things happen naturally. I see myself staying here as long as possible.
What do you outside of work?
I like to run a lot - marathons, various things like that. I love food, and exercising keeps that in check. My girlfriend is in DC, so I go up there a lot. And I do like to get back to Texas as that's where my entire family is located. Oh, and I also have a wine collection.
Send comments to: NHC.Public.Affairs@noaa.gov
Perhaps this bank thermometer is a little confused.
** NO CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT **blazin3596 # Sunday, April 29, 2012 2:11:14 PM