DJYSRV

With all the press coverage of the release of Mozilla's latest version of the Firefox browser, there seems to be one piece missing. This is the issue of how large enterprises will decide whether to adopt and support alternative browsers like Firefox or Opera. For starters, neither product offers what is called a "resource kit" or network installation package that can put the software on thousands of desktops from central servers. This is how Microsoft's products are deployed in large enterprises often with third-party products like Landesk. Can you imagine installing say 8,000 copies of Firefox by having a PC Tech go around to every user or telling employees they are on their own to download it? What about support once the product is on a desktop? Having automatic updates is a start.

If your firm has enterprise applications that employees must use are you willing to spend money to test alternative browers to insure compatibility? The bottom line issues are whether a new browser will speed up the secure exchange of information across the firm and for less cost. Otherwise why bother?

The sober reality for Firefox is how it will move from the early adopters to large enterprises? The same issue is faced by Opera in its quest for gaining revenue froms searches that go to Google based on installed desktops.

Posted on Sun, Dec. 04, 2005
By Mike Langberg
San Jose Mercury News

So far, Firefox is the only open-source software widely adopted by consumers, and that makes it a threat to Microsoft. Firefox took a big step forward last week with the release of version 1.5, the biggest upgrade since the original version 1.0 leaped onto the scene in November 2004.

[snip]

Millions of computer users apparently agree. Firefox came out of nowhere last year to grab a worldwide market share that now stands at 10 to 12 percent, depending on which market research study you check, and pushed Microsoft down by an equal amount to about 85 percent.

[snip]

But Mozilla now faces a bigger challenge in moving beyond 10 percent market share. The early adopters and Web enthusiasts who've flocked to Firefox are low-hanging fruit. It will be much harder to shake the other 90 percent from their Internet Explorer inertia.

Firefox 1.5 has a long list of improvements and new features, but the most important in reaching non-expert users is automatic updates.

[snip]

Automatic updates, where small patch files are pulled onto your computer and you need only click once to install them, falls into the category Baker calls ``unglamorous but fundamental.'' Firefox, in short, is now safe for the mass of computer users who will only upgrade when it's the path of least resistance.

[snip]

To grow, Mozilla's corporate arm may need to get Firefox pre-installed on new PCs, a practice called ``bundling.'' But bundling is expensive, because computer makers expect to be paid handsomely for adding software to their machines.

Mozilla's Firefox web browser set a goal of getting 10% market share, but instead has numbers just under 9%. The obvious next step for the now commercialized Mozilla organization is a marketing campaign. According to Mozilla, "community, open-source marketing only gets us so far." Here are the details.

Firefox Turns 1, Ratchets Up Marketing
By Gregg Keizer, TechWeb News
Nov. 9, 2005

[snip]

According to the most recent numbers cited by NetApplications, Firefox accounts for 8.6 percent of the browsers used, still slightly down from the year's high of 8.7 percent in June.

To boost those numbers, Mozilla's planning on changing its marketing tactics. "We've had very strong adoption by power users, far beyond what we're seeing for average consumers," acknowledged Beard. "Next we'll target technically-savvy consumers with a campaign that focuses on a great user experience, how Firefox is simple to use, and how it has a good security profile." In the next few weeks, the SpreadFirefox.com site -- Mozilla's community-based marketing and enthusiast site -- will re-launch with a new set of campaigns, including video that site operators can add to promote the browser.

"But that kind of community, open-source marketing only gets us so far," Beard admitted. "To reach people who aren't as familiar with the Web, we need more traditional approaches." Although he declined to name names, Beard said that such efforts would rely on partner relationships, new and existing, in 2006. Those partners -- Google is one already, as is EarthLink -- would include ISPs and Web service providers.

In Shakespeare's play the Tempest a bit of the dialog goes like this . .

-- I can call creatures from the briney deep
-- Yes, but will they answer?

The question here is how the 100 million downloads claimed by Mozilla's Firefox browser translates into real users and more importantly market share. eWeek reports (below) that less than half that number of downloadeds are actual users.

More impressive is the claim by the Mozilla foundation that 100,000 people contributed to the various builds of the open source product that has now followed the commercial spin-off from the non-profit Mozilla foundation.

The wealth creation that will come from an IPO for Mozilla's prodcut line (Firefox, Thunderbird) will be fueled by the unpaid contributions of those 100,000 people. If I was one of them, I'd feel like I'd been misled having swallowed the open source idealism hook, line, and sinker.

Firefox Hits Download Milestone
By Matt Hines
October 20, 2005

The Mozilla Corp. announced Thursday that its no-cost, open-source Web browser, Firefox, had reached the 100 million download mark, hitting that milestone less than one year after the software was first introduced.

Launched in Nov. 2004, the browser currently boasts an estimated 45 million individual users, many of whom have already cycled through multiple iterations of the browser.

The group estimates that some 100,000 individuals have built, tested and promoted the software.

[snip]

However, despite the impressive download figure, at least one research group reports that usage of Firefox may actually be sliding. According to Janco Research, based in Park City, Utah, Firefox ranks second in the browser market with 8.8 percent of all users, while Explorer still commands 85 percent of all Web surfers.

[snip]

Janco's third-quarter browser market report stands in sharp contrast to its second quarter research which had predicted that Firefox could take over as much as 25 percent of the sector before the end of 2005.

Netscape, Safari gain at Mozilla's expense

FireFox Stumbles Again, Netscape and Safari Continue Growth Reports NetApplications
Monday October 10, 9:01 am ET
NetApplications Releases September 2005 Browser Activity

ALISO VIEJO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 10, 2005--NetApplications, a provider of Web-based applications that measure, monitor and market Web sites for the Small to Medium Enterprise (SME), today announced its monthly Web site traffic analysis. In September, Netscape Navigator and Apple's Safari continued their modest gains for the second straight month, while FireFox lost market share for the second time in 2005.

[snip]

"Opera made news last month when it announced that it will offer its browser for free, without advertising in what appeared to be a response to the wild adoption rate of FireFox," Vince Vizzaccaro, executive vice president of marketing and strategic relationships for NetApplications. "FireFox, Safari, Netscape and now Opera are jockeying for position and implementing aggressive marketing maneuvers which is setting the stage for a very exciting month in October and throughout the remainder of 2005."

September Browser Market Share:

Microsoft Internet Explorer - 86.87%
FireFox - 7.55%
Safari - 2.39%
Netscape - 2.16%
Opera - 0.51%
Other - 0.51%

August Browser Market Share:

Microsoft Internet Explorer - 86.31%
FireFox - 8.27%
Safari - 2.20%
Netscape - 2.02%
Opera - 0.62%
Mozilla - 0.51%
Other - 0.08%

Additional stats are available at http://marketshare.hitslink.com.

Mozilla's drive for market stalls

Geoff Johnston, an analyst with market research firm WebSideStory, has some harsh things to say in Information Week about Mozilla's drive for market share, but he doesn't stop there. Tarring with a wide brush Johnston says Opera has to "steal users" from Firefox to gain at Mozilla's expense. In another slap at Opera, he says the firm is 12-18 months too late making the move to offering the browser for free.

Johnston is right that Opera will take users from Firefox, but the firm will also gain users from Microsoft as that firm's market space is eroded by its own lack of imagination and innovation. All the teaser public relations that Microsoft is putting out now about its new operating system code named Vista is just hot air. There is no shipped product.

Opera and Mozilla are looking for the same thing, and that is market share to attract developers. In Opera's case the firm gets 70% of its revenue from cell phone firms. Opera's release of the Java-based 'mini browser' opens up developer opportunities for millions of low end phones. While Mozilla is reported to also be developing a cell phone version of the Firefox browser, in this technology area Opera is definitely ahead.

Here's a snip or two from the Information Week article cited in the URL above.

----

Firefox Momentum Slows Sept. 28, 2005

Firefox gained one percentage point of market share in five months, compared to the one-point-per-month gains after its release a year ago.

By Gregg Keizer
TechWeb News

Firefox's once-strong surge against Microsoft Internet Explorer is showing signs of losing momentum, a Web metrics firm said Wednesday.

San Diego-based WebSideStory released market share numbers for Firefox, IE, and other browsers that noted Firefox has crept up from April's 6.75 percent to September's 7.86 percent, a single percentage point gain in five months. During the first few months after its November, 2004, release, Firefox was adding another point each month.

"It looks like Firefox has hit the push-back point," said Geoff Johnston, an analyst with WebSideStory. "We always knew there was a finite number of early adopters out there and a finite number of Microsoft haters who would switch to something new, but we didn't know what that number was. It looks like we're approaching it."

Last year, there was talk among Mozilla Foundation executives of hitting 10 percent market share by the end of 2005. That's unlikely to happen.

snip

"The really bad news isn't on IE, but on the other browsers," he added. "People like choices, it seems, but they don't like too many choices. Netscape and Opera are the most vulnerable to losing existing market share. Opera, for instance, now has to steal users from Firefox, not IE, since the pool of IE users willing to change has dried up.

Last week, Opera changed its licensing practices, and set its browser free. "I hate to say this, but Opera was a year or 18 months too late doing that," said Johnston.

Firefox gains market share

Techweb via Yahoo

By Antone Gonsalves
Mon Sep 12, 6:31 PM ET

The Firefox web browser rebounded in August from a small decline in market share the previous month, but the biggest gain was recorded by Netscape, a web-site analysis company said Monday.

FireFox, offered through the Mozilla Corp., rose a fifth of a point in market share in August to 8.27 percent from 8.07 percent in July, NetApplications said. Microsoft's IE, on the other hand, continued its slide in the market, dropping to 86.31 percent from 87.2 percent.

IE lost market share as Firefox, Apple Computer Inc.'s Safari; and America Online Inc.'s Netscape gained. Safari rose to 2.2 percent from 2.13 percent in July, while Netscape posted the biggest gain to 2.02 percent from 1.5 percent.

[snip]

No. 5 Opera web browser also gained market share to 0.62 percent from 0.49 percent.

Firefox releases V.1.5 beta for testing

Firefox Tests Browser Upgrade

The Mozilla Foundation has released a test version of its upcoming browser.
September 9, 2005

Firefox, the browser that has emerged as the strongest competitor to Microsoft’s Internet Explorer, on Friday released a test version with improved security, navigation, and privacy features.

Codenamed “Deer Park,” the test version is being offered to developers and testers for feedback. The final release of Firefox 1.5 is expected later this year.

The new version offers features like automated product update, improvements in pop-up blocking, and claims of faster navigation with better back- and forward-button performance. The browser has added the Answers.com site to its search engine list, a link to report web sites that do not work in Firefox, and improved support for Mac.