Firefox slows in race to get 10% browser market share
Friday, 30. September 2005, 13:09:12
Geoff Johnston, an analyst with market research firm WebSideStory, has some harsh things to say in Information Week about Mozilla's drive for market share, but he doesn't stop there. Tarring with a wide brush Johnston says Opera has to "steal users" from Firefox to gain at Mozilla's expense. In another slap at Opera, he says the firm is 12-18 months too late making the move to offering the browser for free.
Johnston is right that Opera will take users from Firefox, but the firm will also gain users from Microsoft as that firm's market space is eroded by its own lack of imagination and innovation. All the teaser public relations that Microsoft is putting out now about its new operating system code named Vista is just hot air. There is no shipped product.
Opera and Mozilla are looking for the same thing, and that is market share to attract developers. In Opera's case the firm gets 70% of its revenue from cell phone firms. Opera's release of the Java-based 'mini browser' opens up developer opportunities for millions of low end phones. While Mozilla is reported to also be developing a cell phone version of the Firefox browser, in this technology area Opera is definitely ahead.
Here's a snip or two from the Information Week article cited in the URL above.
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Firefox Momentum Slows Sept. 28, 2005
Firefox gained one percentage point of market share in five months, compared to the one-point-per-month gains after its release a year ago.
By Gregg Keizer
TechWeb News
Firefox's once-strong surge against Microsoft Internet Explorer is showing signs of losing momentum, a Web metrics firm said Wednesday.
San Diego-based WebSideStory released market share numbers for Firefox, IE, and other browsers that noted Firefox has crept up from April's 6.75 percent to September's 7.86 percent, a single percentage point gain in five months. During the first few months after its November, 2004, release, Firefox was adding another point each month.
"It looks like Firefox has hit the push-back point," said Geoff Johnston, an analyst with WebSideStory. "We always knew there was a finite number of early adopters out there and a finite number of Microsoft haters who would switch to something new, but we didn't know what that number was. It looks like we're approaching it."
Last year, there was talk among Mozilla Foundation executives of hitting 10 percent market share by the end of 2005. That's unlikely to happen.
snip
"The really bad news isn't on IE, but on the other browsers," he added. "People like choices, it seems, but they don't like too many choices. Netscape and Opera are the most vulnerable to losing existing market share. Opera, for instance, now has to steal users from Firefox, not IE, since the pool of IE users willing to change has dried up.
Last week, Opera changed its licensing practices, and set its browser free. "I hate to say this, but Opera was a year or 18 months too late doing that," said Johnston.













