Slightly ajar

The reality of "Mobile 2.0"

Monday, October 1, 2007 7:58:09 AM

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Over the last couple of conferences I've attended I've heard a whole lot about designing for iPhone and that it is the only browser worthy of being called Mobile 2.0 (whatever that is). A revolution is about to happen and it revolved around one shiny device (or make that recently two).

Of course, in reality that isn't strictly true. Opera Mini has been blazing its own trail for a long time, irrespective of iPhone. I'm stuck in D.C. Airport for a number of hours, so I thought I'd check on how we are crumbling below the might of the fruit company. Last month we had a commanding lead over that browser according to Net Applications. This month's figures are in, and with all the continued hype and the recent release of the iPod Touch, you'd have expected things to have swayed. Not so.

The iPhone has seen a respectable climb from 0.05% in August to 0.07% of the entire browser market in September. How did Opera Mini do in the same period? In August it had 0.27% of the entire browser market. September however eclipsed this with 0.39%. This growth alone is bigger than the rest of the mobile browser share market combined. Unless I'm delusional as I've not slept for a number of days.

What does this mean? Well don't believe the hype. There is no before iPhone and after iPhone. It is more before Mini and after Mini. Mini is destroying the competition. It's no surprise when two of biggest markets for mobile web access are India and China, and it is unlikely the iPhone/iPod will ever reach the masses in these territories, not to mention the emerging markets in Africa, Asia and South America. Many of these countries are places where the only way they have to access the web is via a mobile. There are also countries where home grown handset brands are very strong, particularly in the Far East. The mobile market isn't simply a one size fits all market.

It also means I'm failing to do my job. Why? Because I'm finding it very difficult to get designers to have any interest in Mini, in light of other browsers, while away from the development community it ca be seen it is catching on like wildfire. There is a huge market out there, that people are failing to look at or take into account. Maybe it is just because we don't have The Shiny. If Mini continues on its current course, it'll be impossible to ignore.

Open the Web World TourCSS Eleven: Are You In Or Out?

Comments

Unregistered user Monday, October 1, 2007 8:43:58 AM

Peter Gasston writes: I'd love to use Mini, but can't get it to work on my phone; something to do with unlocking a second-hand phone. Is there an emulator we can see somewhere?

ws79 Monday, October 1, 2007 9:03:57 AM

Yes, there is a simulator http://www.operamini.com/beta/simulator/ - but does not work in Opera 9.5 :-/

Unregistered user Monday, October 1, 2007 11:22:23 AM

Anonymous writes: "Maybe it is just because we don't have "The Shiny"." it is. opera mini isnt a strong brand. it is a browser that is simply present in your mobile when you buy or get one. people use it, like it and enjoy it, but a) most of them have low expectations and would as well be ok with IE mobile of sorts b) people dont care what it is called c) people are bombarded with infos about iPhone, and are willing to pay for overpriced past-era device. why? it is marketing, stupid. stuff, that sux for opera, your 'open the web tour' being a prime exapmple. who cares about that? it doesnt make opera any more recognisable brand in the world. devs know about opera already and ignore it, users dont know about opera, or know, that it hasnt got extensions and doesnt work with google/yahoo/msn/any advanced webpage. you wont convince devs, to code for opera for free. if thier customers dont ask/pay for it - forget it. no tools "If Mini continues on its current course, it'll be impossible to ignore." just like desktop browser was few years ago. being in a perfect position do achieve a goal doenst neccesary means, that somebody else isnt going to do it earlier. selling a little worse product a whole lot better. and about why developers ignore opera mini - where are the tools? where are the specs? where are infos about known quirks, tweaks, and general know-how? and least but not least - customers are ignoring opera mini. that are not the devs that take decisions, customers do it with their money. convince customers, not devs, devs will do what they are paid for. you know how pricey it was not to relase developer tools for desktop, you are going to do the same stuff again? company stubborn like a brick it seems

Unregistered user Monday, October 1, 2007 12:07:12 PM

Brian LePore writes: Besides the fact that Safari and the iPhone has better mind share (which means more clients ask for it and thus designers will target it, but few will go the extra mile and make it work in other mobile devices), I'd speculate that another factor is that iPhone users may be closer to the target audience that developers are aiming for. While true that Opera Mini has a higher worldwide market share, I know very few of my clients currently care about South America, Africa, or Asia. Is there a way to filter the Market Share results by region? If so, for North America you might see the iPhone at 0.07%, and the Opera Mini at only 0.06% (not claiming it is, but who knows).

Unregistered user Monday, October 1, 2007 12:16:00 PM

Brian LePore writes: Grr. I had a decent post that I think I just lost everything I had wrote because the captcha had expired or something like that. To summarize what I had wrote: 1. The iPhone may have better mind share -- clients are asking for it and thus designers are targeting it. Many designers might not know that the Opera Mini has better market share, nor know how to test in it (yes, I'm aware of the simulator, but many aren't). 2. Many clients do not care for anything besides their own country of origin. I know most of our clients only care about North America, with New York in particular. Since Opera Mini is targeting a world wide audience and iPhone users are based in North America, that the percentage of users to visit your site over users available for that platform will be higher for the iPhone then Opera Mini. To put it another way, the iPhone might actually have a higher market share then Opera Mini in just the US and ignore the rest of the world.

David Storeydstorey Monday, October 1, 2007 4:26:18 PM

A couple of points:

1) Customers care about Opera Mini. Our usage share compared to other mobile browsers (including mobile Safari) shows this. It is not that developers are caring about iPhone as that is where the users are, as the users are on Mini

2) Most users o Mini seem to come from people that downloaded Mini themselves, loved it and so continue using it. Mini isn't pre-installed on as many models as for example Opera Mobile is.

3) I don't know for sure but the stats above are probably US biased or at least english language site biased. We'd probably have higher market share otherwise. Net Applications are a US based and English language service.

4) Doing the "open the web tour" isn't a marketing stunt. I'm going to meet developers, talk about issues, get contacts and fix issues. There is a very real benefit, like increased site compatibility. We've also increased our mind share with developers. If it was about marketing they'd certainly not send me. me being out here meeting with developers an helping them when they have issues, is fixing just the problems you say we have. For customer awareness at large, I'll leave that to the people that focus on that.

edysoesanto Tuesday, October 2, 2007 11:38:47 AM

I like your opera. Cute

Haavardhaavard Thursday, October 11, 2007 9:19:01 AM

your 'open the web tour' being a prime exapmple. who cares about that?


I would think that quite a few Opera users care about site compatibility.

just like desktop browser was few years ago.


The desktop browser has never been in a position even remotely similar to the one Mini is in today. The desktop market has always had other dominating browsers, while Opera was just around, growing slowly and not really making a lot of noise. Opera Mini, on the other hand, is on its way to taking a huge chunk of the mobile market, and even growing quickly in the overall browser market (according to these stats).

you know how pricey it was not to relase developer tools for desktop, you are going to do the same stuff again?


Actually, developer tools have been officially announced, and they are on their way.

Unregistered user Thursday, October 11, 2007 6:50:02 PM

Anonymous writes: there is a difference between 'being announced' and 'being there'. difference is - nobody cares about what is 'announced' as it doesnt make one work any easier. and firebug is 'there', ie webdev+vs is there, apple tools are there. whats missing? about opera uers caring about site compatibility. i explained it earlier - most (i say 99%) webdevelopers already know enough about opera. while some things they 'know' are simply outdated facts/'facts', most of them are well educated. does it have any real impact on site compatibility? no. why? because that are not the devs that decide what browsers are supported. marketing guys are responsible for signing deals, where customer buys a site compatible with A, B and C browsers. devs have nothing to do about it. you can educate them as much as you want, but they are not going to do support for browser D in their spare time. it is a real wordl - I do ONLY what im paid for. and gues what - im not alone in that approach. and why marketing guys sell sites with A, B and C browsers, but not O browser? because O has market share below noise level. and cost of making site for browser O is definately higher than gain you get (no tools, lame documentation increase the cost). and about webdevs meetings. companies send there the least valuable man. when I have to send a guy to a conference or marketing stunt i always send youngest man on the team. because proffesional gain from such stunts is low, and one-man-day of work is costly these days, and if it is to be used not for work, let it be something worthy, even MS courses. youll never meet decision makers on these stunts. and that are the people you need to convince. and they use firefox and mostly NEVER heard about opera. opera was in BETTER position than firefox 4 years ago. i know, that agreeing with that means that opera wasted its oportunity, but thats the truth. as for the opera mini. you overestimate minis position. iPhone got more press cover during launch week than opera mini during its entire life. it is a great product, but well.. betaMax also was better than vhs. who remembers beta?

David Storeydstorey Thursday, October 11, 2007 7:11:28 PM

If you realised how foolish that comment makes you sound, you'd cringe. You obvously don't know the realities of the industry. I'll go on wasting my time meeting Google, Yahoo!, Apple, NY Times ad infinitum, while you can scorn all you want.

Unregistered user Friday, October 12, 2007 5:52:00 AM

Anonymous writes: answer this simple question - is opera supported by google/yahoo? when was the last time THEY did something to support opera 100%? i dont deny that these meetings can be fun and give some knowledge to participants, but as i and anybody else can see going to doc and spreadsheets and seeing a great go-away sign, they do not work. future will tell, but i presume we will NEVER see opera supported by google/yahoo in the same way firefox is supported. and it is the money that it is a decider, not 'meetings'. thinking otherwise is indeed foolish.

David Storeydstorey Friday, October 12, 2007 5:58:12 AM

umm have you tested Google Docs lately? I seem to have misplaced the "Go away" message. Sure am wasting my time smile

Haavardhaavard Friday, October 12, 2007 1:17:32 PM

there is a difference between 'being announced' and 'being there'.


Yes, your point being? smile You said that we "are going to do the same stuff again", as in "not releasing deveveloper tools". But this is incorrect, as I pointed out.

does it have any real impact on site compatibility?


Does talking to webmasters have any real imact on site compatibility? Yes, it most certainly does! Have you read David or Hallvord's blog lately?

youll never meet decision makers on these stunts.


Really? Have you ever been to any of them?

as for the opera mini. you overestimate minis position. iPhone got more press cover during launch week than opera mini during its entire life.


And that means that Opera Mini's growth isn't real? wink

How fast is the iPhone browser share growing?

Unregistered user Friday, October 12, 2007 8:20:15 PM

Anonymous writes: haavard, you know perfectly well what is the difference between announcing something and having it available. i explained it in the next sentence you conveniently ommited. the art of selective quoting is strong with you. as for the site compatibility - if it works so great, why picasa, spreadsheets, gmail, reader, ymbeta, silverlight etc do not work with opera (or work in LITE mode)? why, in the case they do actualy work, it is only due to browser.js, and not the fix on the google/yahoo/ms side? when was the last time they DID something instead of talking that they are working on it? i do read these blogs, and what i see there is that all the glory for g/y sites working goes to Halvors, not g/y itself. so what was the gain of these meetings again? if opera mini growth rate is real, than opera desktop decline is also real. when you are going to announce that dektop browser is being dropped? it is clearly visible, that it has lower priority than my.opera site, not mentioning mobile browsers. if it was otherwise, dev tools wouldnt be the topic of thi disscussion.

David Storeydstorey Friday, October 12, 2007 10:10:57 PM

This has got totally off topic, so enough of the pointless hating, but if Google don't fix things, how come Google Docs has suddenly been fixed...by themselves. You conveniently missed them out of your low down. Google GWT fix issues that OTW report to them, so do Google Maps. Google Gmail also worksi n Opera the last time I checked. We are meeting Google soon and have things like Spreadsheets on the agenda. I have contacts there now and it isn't just Hallvord's patches, no mater how much you want to believe.

Silverlight is news to me. I've been working with there engineers for a while fixing issues. I was in Seattle over a year ago with the Live team and got that site fixed. I have very good relations with the MS guys and they've fixed a number of sites.

Yahoo! is the same. We are meeting them later this month, and their YUI library (which they use in many of their products, and probably many more as services get updated) offically supports and is tested on Opera. They fix bugs we send them and we fix bugs they send to us. We are activly working on fixing YMBeta. Rome wasn't build in a day and a service wont get fixed overnight. It takes time but we are working on it. Yahoo.com used to be broke in Opera, it works now.

When was the last thing they did anything? Yesterday as a matter of fact.

You may think otw is useless and worthless and we waste our time, but we are getting very real results.

Desktop and Mini are two different things. Opera Mini growth doesn't mean Desktop is declining. Both are growing. Both are measured as different products on statistics software like Hits Link. We are not taking focus off desktop. Look how much I write about Kestrel on here.

Dev tools isn't the topic of this discussion, it is the Mobile Web. Dev tools is very different from focusing on Desktop. Good dev tools should work on mobile and devices too. No one says Firefox don't focus on desktop, yet the dev tools everyone uses were not written by Mozilla, it was written as a 3rd party extension. We know we are late in the game with Dev tools, but we are putting a lot of focus on them. They are probably the main focus of OtW and our Dev Relations team.

Haavardhaavard Saturday, October 13, 2007 2:38:39 PM

haavard, you know perfectly well what is the difference between announcing something and having it available. i explained it in the next sentence you conveniently ommited.


Yes, but that wasn't what you said, and the next sentence was unfortunately not relevant to my comment.

as for the site compatibility - if it works so great ...


Once more, you seem to be veering off the actual topic of this interesting little debate of ours smile

if opera mini growth rate is real, than opera desktop decline is also real.


No, both Opera Mini and Opera for desktop are getting more users. Also, if you look at the long-term trends at Net Applications, even Opera for desktop is gaining market share (according to their stats, which must obviously be taken with a grain of salt).

when you are going to announce that dektop browser is being dropped?


Never! smile

With a desktop revenue growth of more than 160% in the second quarter of this year (the third quarter in a row with growth >100%, if I remember correctly), it would be foolish to even consider dropping it!

it is clearly visible, that it has lower priority than my.opera site


No, Opera for desktop has a lot more people working on it than My Opera does (although we are trying to hire more people to work on the site).

And there is more going on than the latest public version of Opera. Lots of things are being worked on for future versions that people outside of Opera have no idea about.

So don't worry, the desktop browser has a very high priority!

if it was otherwise, dev tools wouldnt be the topic of thi disscussion.


You are assuming that the developer tools will be used exclusively for desktop content... Don't make so many assumptions about things without the proper data to support it smile

Unregistered user Saturday, October 13, 2007 11:17:01 PM

Anonymous writes: one short comment about the TOOLS. they arent available now, what is the price opera pays for it is clear to anybody inside webdevelopers world. it doesnt matter how great they are going to be in an unknown future. what matters is that they are not here now, and more and more minor and mid-range sites are designed with ff (firebug) and ie (obviosly) in mind. just because there is no easy way to do it in opera. they are so numerous that youll never contact even 1% of them, never meet them in person, never know about them, because noone is going to be bothered filling clumsy bug report in your tracking system. opera users are going to stumble upon them and be greeted with sub-par service. and theyll blame opera. 'announcements' do not make anybodys work any easier, so nobody really cares about them. this is general comment to stuff like 'we are working on it', without mentioning what that 'it' even is. about the 'never' part. never say never in bussines, esp. publictly traded stock company. ive seen more hillarious 'never' statements going complety oposite in matter of weeks.

Haavardhaavard Sunday, October 14, 2007 2:06:11 PM

Announcements tell people what is coming in the future. A lot of people are showing great interest in the upcoming developer tools (including people working for various large sites).

I'm not going to split hairs over "never", but suffice to say there's a lot going behind the scenes that you don't know about, and you are making a number of assumptions based on missing data smile

Anyway, come back when the dev tools are ready, and you can even tell us what you think about them!

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