ekzept

there's a very nice and succinct article about why politicians and policymakers communicate to the public as they do regarding risks like terrorism. it's certainly true that people just don't assess risks well, preferring, for instance, to drive long distances rather than taking airplanes, even when the (financial) costs are comparable. this is a deep tendency on the part of people, one which goes away only with discipline and training. it's demonstrated, for example, by people indulging in state lotteries and preferring to choose to receive US$1 rather than participate in a game of chance where they receive US$2 or nothing each with equal probability.

Howard Kunreuther in his "Commentary on Terrorism and Risk Communication" writes:

To better prepare the nation for dealing with terrorism, there are a set of elements I suggest we consider to complement the important points that Burns makes:

issues of blame

"... policy makers’ decisions may be influenced by the blame they expect for failures to prevent terrorist attacks."

lack of interest in probabilities

"... policy makers disregard likelihood in their decisions is because the public focuses its attention primarily on the consequences of an attack. Several studies show, however, that individuals rarely seek out probability estimates in making their decisions."

ignoring low probability risks

"... decision makers ignore risks that are below their threshold level of concern. Property owners residing in communities that are potential sites for nuclear waste facilities have a tendency to dismiss the risk as negligible ... even after the first terrorist attack against the World Trade Center in 1993, terrorism risk continued to be included as an unnamed peril in most commercial insurance policies in the United States ..."

short term horizons

"Individuals and firms have short time horizons when planning for the future so they may not fully weigh the long-term benefits from investing in loss reduction measures."

interdependencies

"There are also problems of interdependencies that decisionmakers fail to appreciate fully. For large corporations, a failure in one division can lead to disruption or bankruptcy of the entire firm worldwide."

read the original for more.