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Observations with a Straight Face, issue 3

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This entry concludes the series about amusing philosophical, anthropological, sociological and other principles. Many of them seem nothing but witticisms at first, but these “laws” are empirically valid and have some degree of serious value.

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Observations with a Straight Face, issue 2

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This entry continues the series about amusing philosophical, anthropological, sociological and other principles. Many of them seem nothing but witticisms at first, but these “laws” are empirically valid and have some degree of serious value.

Benford's law is an empirical observation that in many, although not all, large arrays of real-life numerical data, the first digit of the figure won't be uniformly distributed: it will be 1 in about 30% cases, with diminishing frequences for other digits, all the way to the least frequent 9 which occurs in less than 5% values. Take heights of city buildings (in any measurement units), country populations, taxpayers incomes, and they will most likely closely follow Benford's law. The explanation is straightforward in cases when the logarithm of the value has uniform distribution, but the law surprisingly holds also in many cases when this is not true. As it often happens, although the law was stated by Frank Benford in 1938, it was first observed already in 1881 by the astronomer Simon Newcomb. He noticed that in logarithm books, the earlier pages, which contained numbers starting with 1, were much more worn than the other pages.

Parkinson's law: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. Cyril Northcote Parkinson who stated this quite true law seems to have stumbled upon some fundamental principle, various manifestations of which have since been given their own names. Douglas Hofstadter stated the recursive Hofstadter's law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. Roemer's law, which says that in an insured population, a hospital bed built is a bed filled, is actually being used in health planning in the US. Wirth's law saying that software is getting slower more rapidly than hardware becomes faster (Niklaus Wirth) seems to be a particular case of the Jevons paradox: technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase, rather than decrease, the rate of consumption of that resource (William Stanley Jevons). If there indeed is something common behind all these phenomena, that law is still to be discovered and named after someone.

The Jeane Dixon effect, named after the American astrologer Jeane Dixon, is the tendency of some predictions out of a large amount made to come true. Those predictions that came true can then be brought to public attention while forgetting about the numerous predictions that proved wrong.

The Navigation paradox states that increased navigational precision may result in increased collision risk. Before widespread availability of GPS, ships and airplanes used to follow random trajectories that only roughly resembled navigational paths. Surprisingly, when navigational electronics allowed vessels to follow these paths with greater precision, the collision rates went up. Today, as a mitigation measure, pilots are recommended to fly one or two miles to the right of the center of the airway.

The Thomas theorem, formulated by William Thomas in 1928: If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences. A classical example: false rumors about a bank's bankruptcy can cause many of its clients to withdraw their money, causing the bank to become bankrupt in reality. According to John Keynes' beauty contest theory, stock share prices depend not so much on the market players' real estimations of their worth as on what they think others estimate their worth to be.

По-русски: Наблюдения с серьёзным лицом, выпуск 2

Observations with a Straight Face, issue 1

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This entry starts a new series about amusing philosophical, anthropological, sociological and other principles. Althouh many of them seem nothing but witticisms at first, the criterion for this series is that the “law” is empirically valid and has some degree of serious value. The numerous corollaries and “laws” inspired by the Murphy's law have failed to get the spotlight here.

Poe's law is an adage named after its author Nathan Poe: Without a winking smiley or other blatant display of humor, it is impossible to create a parody of fundamentalism that someone won't mistake for the real thing. In other words, hardcore extremism is indistinguishable from a well-made parody because a parody is crated by taking something to the extreme. If you're sceptical, read ChristWire.

Conway's law, stated by computer programmer Melvin Conway, says: …organizations which design systems … are constrained to produce designs which are copies of the communication structures of these organizations. Although it seems humorous at first, this is a valid sociological observation with abundant examples. The initial version of the adage was: If you have four groups working on a compiler, you'll get a four-pass compiler.

The Peter Principle was introduced by the eponymous book by Laurence Peter and Raymond Hull: In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence. A system which rewards competent employees by promoting them will keep raising an employee until they are no longer competent, which is their level of incompetence. However, many real hierarchical systems can function because not all their employees have reached their incompetence levels yet, and those who haven't are the ones doing actual work. An exaggerated version of this principle found in Scott Adams' “Dilbert” comics states that the least competent employees get promoted to middle management to minimize the harm from their activity. This “Dilbert principle” has been subsequently described in detail in the eponymous satirical book by Adams which is recommended reading at some courses in management.

Schneier's law, attributed to the cryptographer Bruce Schneier, was stated in a speech by Cory Doctorow as follows: Any person can invent a security system so clever that he or she can't imagine a way of breaking it. A similar principle was earlier formulated by David Kahn in his book “The Codebreakers”: Few false ideas have more firmly gripped the minds of so many intelligent men than the one that, if they just tried, they could invent a cipher that no one could break. A recent example: Bangladesh extremists were using a cipher of their own invention based on Excel transposition tables. The idea of this cipher is known since ancient history as the Caesar cipher, and to break it is considered the most trivial exercise in cryptanalysis. Modern ciphers such as AES were rejected by the extremists because they are known to the infidels, which in their opinion lowers the security.

A decent conclusion to this issue will be Stigler's law which says: No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer. Because similar discoveries are often made independently by different people, and an idea is usually associated not with the one who was first but rather with the one who drew attention to it, examples of Stigler's law are surprisingly abundant. Stephen Stigler who published “Stigler's law of eponymy”, attributes its discovery to the sociologist Robert Merton, making Stigler's law an example of itself.

По-русски: Наблюдения с серьёзным лицом, выпуск 1
May 2013
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