Fiendish Games

Cricket, lovely cricket. I hardly ever watch it except for test matches involving England, which I find utterly absorbing. A bit of a bummer then that the current Ashes series between England and Australia is on pay TV only. It means I will have to spend most of Saturday and Sunday (if the first match lasts that long) in the pub if I want to watch it. What hardship!

On the plus side, the office where I work has about 20 TV screens on our floor, half of wuhich are tuned into CNBC and the other half into Sky and the coverage of the first test. This has enabled me to keep half an eye on the score and do a bit of betting on Betfair.

I probably should not be gambling in work time, but then (ultimately) I work for a spread betting firm, so I figure they might find it a bit embarrassing to take a stand against people betting while at work.

Not that you are interested but before the first match started I backed Australia at just under evens to win the series. As for the first match, the draw at 5/2 seemed very skinny to me so I laid it (backed against it). During the course of the game (yes, American friends, it can last up to five days and still end in a draw) I've traded all three possible outcomes but I am still marginally in the hole if it ends in a draw, which the odds are telling me is the most likely result.

England are 12/1 to win, Australia 9/4 and the draw - with three days still to play - is 8/13. The weather could still play a part in ensuring a draw but my general view is that the Aussies don't do draws, and England don't do valiant rearguard actions.

So, although England have a decent first innings score, the Aussies are less than 200 runs behind, have nine wickets in hand, and the track is set to deteriorate on the fourth and fifth days. I think we know how this one goes, don't we? Australia build up a first innings lead of 250, and leave themselves a day and a half to get England out.

England will then look as if they are going to cruise serenely to safety until one of the openers gets out at which point it all goes wobbly, England are skittled out for 155 and yours truly lays off some of his position on Australia to win the series, locking in a certain profit.

There, I've stuck my neck out, partly in the hope that England will make me look a total twot, but I don't think so. Right now, the most I am hoping for is that England can keep the game alive until Saturday so I can watch some of the action down the pub.

Oh, and betting £50 to win £31 that it won't end in a draw.