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Attack of the Bugs

StatCounter and Net Applications market share numbers compared to actual numbers

Tuesday, 3. November 2009, 13:29:26

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Google just announced that Chrome has more than 30 million users. The latest number for Opera from a few months ago was more than 40 million users. However, both StatCounter and Net Applications list Chrome with a higher market share than Opera in October (1.88 for Opera/4.17 for Chrome, and 2.17 for Opera/3.58 for Chrome, respectively).

That's how reliable browser statistics are...

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Comments

tomassplatch 3. November 2009, 13:48

But these stats do not refer to number of users, but to marketshare, as far as I understand. Perhaps Opera users browse less?

thobi 3. November 2009, 14:18

which method does opera use to measure how many active user they have?

Haavard 3. November 2009, 15:28

Even if Opera users browse less (which I doubt, considering that most of them are probably fairly advanced users), that doesn't really explain these faulty market share numbers.

But Net Applications uses the term "unique visitor", which means that how many pages each visitor views shouldn't affect the stats.

Charles Schloss 3. November 2009, 16:46

There is no one true number for counting users

Pallab De 3. November 2009, 16:47

The possible reason is that Opera has a strong presence in Russia and Scandinavia. Users from both these regions browse a lot of regional sites which possibly don't use either Statcounter or Hitslink.

These metrics tend to reflect the behaviour of US users more accurately.

Andrey Petrov 3. November 2009, 21:28

The share of Chrome users at work is much higher than Opera's. Most Chrome users used Firefox or IE previously. Also I'm pretty sure that most of them never tried Opera or even heard about it. Google is Google -- the huge advertising machine. But also it is very easy to install, even without admin rights (where Opera fails).

I don't know how Opera and Google count their users. Do you really think (believe) that number of downloads = number of users?

I would better believe mashup of different stats than such counting of user base downloads.

Also lets not use double standards here. In eastern Europe different stats clearly show Opera as one of leaders. Most western stats show Opera as looser. There can be ~3-5% error, but we can clearly see the pattern and tendency.

IMHO there is no smoke without fire.

Charles Schloss 3. November 2009, 22:31

Originally posted by FataL:

Google is Google -- the huge advertising machine


Yep, that is why so many people know what Chrome might be

Илья Шпаньков 4. November 2009, 00:35

Originally posted by FataL:

I don't know how Opera and Google count their users.


OK. But...

Originally posted by FataL:

Do you really think (believe) that number of downloads = number of users?


Why you think that we calculate downloads? :wink:

Haavard have addressing to logic. So, there is:
1. Opera have more of unique users than Chrome (in total, around the world)
2. By stats data Opera have less market share than Chrome.

This situation is impossible in any case.

Also I remember, when Opera had 30+ mln. users and Google reported about 10 mln. Chrome users - by data from the wellknown and frequently mentioned stats counters the Opera had less market share :wink:

For me (and logic) it mean, that stat counters collect data just from a few sources (part of the world), and at this sources Opera have less market share. But why they titled it as "world market stats"? I don't understand :wink:

Andrey Petrov 4. November 2009, 00:52

Opera have more of unique users than Chrome (in total, around the world)

You still failed to explain how Opera counts its unique users. :smile:
Probably you can count users that keep Fraud Protection on, but you can't count on this as source for your statistics.

Charles Schloss 4. November 2009, 02:31

FataL what about the update checks?

Haavard 4. November 2009, 09:23

FataL: User numbers are not based on downloads, as explained many times before. They are based on actual usage. You can read older posts on the subject if you want to know more about this, as it's not worth repeating all over again here.

The issue here is that Google reports significantly fewer users than Opera, and yet these statistics claim that Chrome's market share is higher. This clearly shows that there is something very wrong with these statistics, and yet they are widely being quoted as if they actually reflect reality.

"There is no smoke without fire" can be said about any wild conjecture out there. There are numerous examples of the media jumping on something without there actually being anything of substance. That a lot of people believe something doesn't make it true, especially if actual facts contradict these beliefs.

Vygantas 4. November 2009, 12:48

Chrome had 30 million users 4 months ago...

http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/07/introducing-google-chrome-os.html
7/07/2009 09:37:00 PM

"It's been an exciting nine months since we launched the Google Chrome browser. Already, over 30 million people use it regularly"

Haavard 4. November 2009, 12:55

Opera had 40 million about 2-3 months ago, so the point still stands. Please stay on-topic.

Rafael Luik 5. November 2009, 15:19

Maybe Google is using automated servers that browse websites, like MS does against Mozilla. :D
Just a crazy thought. :wink:

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