Words From The Wilds

After some significant drops in market price over the several months since last fall, we see a small rebound for some of the trusts I have been following. Here is an update to 2008-Apr-15 showing gains/losses since 2006-June-13 (not including normal and special distributions):

Cominar Real Estate Income Trust (+9%)
Canwel Building Materials Income Fund (+22%)
Rogers Sugar Income Trust (+33%)
Sentry Select Diversified Income Trust (-24%)
Boston Pizza Royalty Income Trust (-35%)
Yellow Pages Income Trust (-28%)
Penn West Energy Trust (-29%)
Badger Income Fund (+20%)

I am still accumulating some of these as the price/distribution is still great (good income generators).

A brief update to show how the value (not including income) of investments that I am following is tracking since I first mentioned them here several months ago:

• Penn West Energy Trust (+1%)
  
• Sentry Select Diversified Income Trust (+12%)
  
• Badger Income Fund (+7%)
  
• Boston Pizza Royalty Income Trust (+6%)
  
• Cominar Real Estate Income Trust (even)
  
• Rogers Sugar Income Trust (-4%)
  
• Yellow Pages Income Trust (-11%)
  
• Ipsco Steel (-6%)
  
• Canwel Building Materials Income Fund (-17%)
  
• Tahera Diamond (-42%)
  

Most of these show a modest improvement since the last review posted here except for Tahera and Yellow Pages.

We might as well talk about the weather although it has been bouncing around a lot too. The stock market has not been very exciting with relatively low trading volumes, no clear direction, and as a sailor might say, stuck in the doldrums. Interest in trading stock seems to be waning for the summer and I am a little perturbed that the activity isn't greater than it has been these last few weeks. I have been trying to move my investments towards a somewhat more reliable road, although I am averse to taking losses of any kind, having done that in the past and regretted it later. I am still sticking with my opinion on those stocks that I have mentioned in the past. Just to update, these are the ones that I presently follow and/or own, shown in order of gains over the last four months or so since I first mentioned them here (best gains first):

• Petrofund Income Trust (+18%)
  
• Sentry Select Diversified Income Trust (+7%)
  
• Badger Income Fund (+5%)
  
• Boston Pizza Royalty Income Trust (+4%)
  
• Cominar Real Estate Income Trust (even)
  
• Rogers Sugar Income Trust (-3%)
  
• Yellow Pages Income Trust (-3%)
  
• Ipsco Steel (-5%)
  
• Canwel Building Materials Income Fund (-29%)
  
• Tahera Diamond (-41%)
  

The last two in the list are not very impressive to say the least. However, I am sticking with these as Canwel is providing the highest income (distributions) and Tahera is just beginning to produce and have sales and needs more time.

Overall, not great, but good in a peculiar market these last four months or so. Incidentally, the numbers in parantheses above do not reflect the significant distributions or dividends paid to unitholders or shareholders over this period, only the unit or share price appreciation.

It has been a while since I've posted but I have been trying to sort out a new location for my main site. I certainly have been learning (and spending a little). However, for those of us who picked up some Canwel and Tahera with the hopes of price appreciation, we have a little waiting to do. Think of it as training to be patient. Like many people, I am usually not patient enough. However, in the meantime, the income trusts pay you to wait, and at a very good rate.

Gold is heading for the sky, the global political climate is uncertain, oil is not cheap and interest rates are creeping upward. There are many other factors that affect stock performance. My guesses for the future of the stocks I am interested are shown here:

CWX.UN - should move upward over the next few months with lots of new housing and home renovations this year, income with price appreciation
PTF.UN - may stall at C$28 but general upward trend with solid performance from oil, price appreciation with income
BPF.UN - long term upward trend, price appreciation with income
CUF.UN - upward trend over the next week or two, income
IPS - will show downward trend over the next several weeks, as net profit/share for the first quarter is about the same as a year ago but cash flow is down and the company is predicting a less profitable second quarter. May be a BUY quite a bit later, long-term speculation with small income
BAD.UN - upward trend for the next few weeks, income
RSI.UN - stable to slight upward trend, income
TAH - think this one is a BUY anytime soon (next week or two), speculation
SDT.UN - fairly stable (+/- 3%) with long term price appreciation, income
YLO.UN - likely to move upward by as much as 5% in the next month or so

I also have a small position on QRL (Queenstake Resources, gold producer) for speculation and I expect this one to show some more appreciation in the coming weeks (esp. if gold climbs as high as predicted this year).

All for now.

Well, it had to happen. Canwel reduced it's distribution significantly after about 1 year of operation as an income trust. The yield is still great, and for those who took advantage of this morning's unit price drop before it recovered - CONGRATULATIONS. You got a great bargain. I got caught sleeping and missed the opportunity to pick up units for under C$4.50!

I still believe in this trust and will continue to hold CWX units in my portfolio. The underlying business is (without seasonal fluctuations) a pretty solid one built on years of successful operation. At a $5.00 unit price, this trust still yields 14% per annum before taxes - excellent.

It's early in the day so I wonder what the rest of the day will bring.