My OperaNHL BETTING TIPS #2: LETDOWN FACTOR
Monday, January 21, 2013 7:24:54 AM
Ask any handicapper about the Letdown factor and they will tell you it’s one of the key situations they look for when handicapping College basketball or football games. Truth be told, I was introduced to the Letdown factor by Las Vegas Legendary Handicapper Mike Lee in the late 90’s, as Mike would look for teams who came off a huge upset over a big public team and then bet against them in their next game.
In college sports, whenever a smaller division 1 school would win over a power house school like Michigan or Ohio State, it was an automatic to bet against them in the next game. The perception of the betting public would be since they won against a big ranked school last week, they should win the following week. However, it was the opposite that would always occur and the bookmakers were all over the number! After a huge win like that, players at the college level feel like they’ve won the Super Bowl and trying to match that intensity or repeat performance was nearly impossible to duplicate.
Normally, they would be so emotionally high during the week, it would take away from their focus for the next game and come the first quarter, it was 21-0 and everybody suddenly forgot the big win.
However, keep in mind; the letdown factor from various sports is completely different, like in football for example. Teams can go a whole week and replay the past game, while in hockey; you can be playing a new opponent the next night. According to my research of the 2011 season, the letdown factor nearly had the reverse effect and teams who made the playoffs had a better chance of winning their next game after blowing out an opponent.
Furthermore, it seems you want to play on home teams coming off a 3 or more goal win, as they are 121-82 (59%) vs. their opponents, while home teams coming off a 4 goal win were 31-19. Sometimes you might want to look at the UNDER, because teams who normally come off a big win, the bookmakers will believe the public will be looking at the OVER, but it was the opposite for Calgary during the 2011 season. In fact, the UNDER was a perfect 7-0-0 after a 3 goal win.
Here is a team by team record on how they did after a big win during the 2011 season. Make sure to follow all of my picks at Hockeypicks.com this season!
Wins Points Teams 3 Goal Win 4 Goal Win 5 + Goal Win
34 80 Anaheim 1-4 1-1 1-0
49 102 y-Boston 6-4 2-1 5-2
39 89 Buffalo 3-1 2-3 1-0
37 90 Calgary 2-5 0-2 0-0
33 82 Carolina 2-4 0-0 0-1
45 101 x-Chicago 10-3 3-1 1-0
41 88 Colorado 2-4 0-1 3-1
29 65 Columbus 3-5 0-2 0-0
42 89 Dallas 6-4 0-1 0-0
48 102 x-Detroit 9-4 0-0 4-2
32 74 Edmonton 1-7 2-0 1-1
38 94 y-Florida 1-5 2-0 0-1
40 95 x-Los Angeles 6-4 2-2 1-0
35 81 Minnesota 1-2 1-0 0-0
31 78 Montreal 1-3 2-5 0-2
48 104 x-Nashville 6-3 1-0 1-1
48 102 x-New Jersey 7-2 1-2 1-1
34 79 NY Islanders 4-1 1-2 0-0
51 109 y-NY Rangers 7-9 2-0 0-1
41 92 x-Ottawa 5-5 5-1 1-0
47 103 x-Philadelphia 5-4 3-2 1-4
42 97 y-Phoenix 6-4 2-1 0-1
51 108 x-Pittsburgh 11-4 2-1 3-1
43 96 x-San Jose 5-4 0-1 2-0
49 109 y-St. Louis 4-9 4-1 0-0
38 84 Tampa Bay 0-1 1-2 0-1
35 80 Toronto 1-4 2-0 2-1
51 111 z-Vancouver 4-7 5-1 2-0
42 92 x-Washington 4-5 0-2 0-1
37 84 Winnipeg 4-2 0-2 1-0
3 Goal Win 4 Goal Win 5 + Goal Win
Home Team 72-52 31-19 18-11
Road Team 57-73 15-18 13-11
Favorite 61-35 26-11 23-13
Underdog 18-21 6-9 8-9
Home Favorite 59-35 25-10 15-9
Home Underdog 13-17 6-9 3-2
Road Favorite 24-27 7-7 8-4
Road Underdog 33-46 8-11 5-7
In college sports, whenever a smaller division 1 school would win over a power house school like Michigan or Ohio State, it was an automatic to bet against them in the next game. The perception of the betting public would be since they won against a big ranked school last week, they should win the following week. However, it was the opposite that would always occur and the bookmakers were all over the number! After a huge win like that, players at the college level feel like they’ve won the Super Bowl and trying to match that intensity or repeat performance was nearly impossible to duplicate.
Normally, they would be so emotionally high during the week, it would take away from their focus for the next game and come the first quarter, it was 21-0 and everybody suddenly forgot the big win.
However, keep in mind; the letdown factor from various sports is completely different, like in football for example. Teams can go a whole week and replay the past game, while in hockey; you can be playing a new opponent the next night. According to my research of the 2011 season, the letdown factor nearly had the reverse effect and teams who made the playoffs had a better chance of winning their next game after blowing out an opponent.
Furthermore, it seems you want to play on home teams coming off a 3 or more goal win, as they are 121-82 (59%) vs. their opponents, while home teams coming off a 4 goal win were 31-19. Sometimes you might want to look at the UNDER, because teams who normally come off a big win, the bookmakers will believe the public will be looking at the OVER, but it was the opposite for Calgary during the 2011 season. In fact, the UNDER was a perfect 7-0-0 after a 3 goal win.
Here is a team by team record on how they did after a big win during the 2011 season. Make sure to follow all of my picks at Hockeypicks.com this season!
Wins Points Teams 3 Goal Win 4 Goal Win 5 + Goal Win
34 80 Anaheim 1-4 1-1 1-0
49 102 y-Boston 6-4 2-1 5-2
39 89 Buffalo 3-1 2-3 1-0
37 90 Calgary 2-5 0-2 0-0
33 82 Carolina 2-4 0-0 0-1
45 101 x-Chicago 10-3 3-1 1-0
41 88 Colorado 2-4 0-1 3-1
29 65 Columbus 3-5 0-2 0-0
42 89 Dallas 6-4 0-1 0-0
48 102 x-Detroit 9-4 0-0 4-2
32 74 Edmonton 1-7 2-0 1-1
38 94 y-Florida 1-5 2-0 0-1
40 95 x-Los Angeles 6-4 2-2 1-0
35 81 Minnesota 1-2 1-0 0-0
31 78 Montreal 1-3 2-5 0-2
48 104 x-Nashville 6-3 1-0 1-1
48 102 x-New Jersey 7-2 1-2 1-1
34 79 NY Islanders 4-1 1-2 0-0
51 109 y-NY Rangers 7-9 2-0 0-1
41 92 x-Ottawa 5-5 5-1 1-0
47 103 x-Philadelphia 5-4 3-2 1-4
42 97 y-Phoenix 6-4 2-1 0-1
51 108 x-Pittsburgh 11-4 2-1 3-1
43 96 x-San Jose 5-4 0-1 2-0
49 109 y-St. Louis 4-9 4-1 0-0
38 84 Tampa Bay 0-1 1-2 0-1
35 80 Toronto 1-4 2-0 2-1
51 111 z-Vancouver 4-7 5-1 2-0
42 92 x-Washington 4-5 0-2 0-1
37 84 Winnipeg 4-2 0-2 1-0
3 Goal Win 4 Goal Win 5 + Goal Win
Home Team 72-52 31-19 18-11
Road Team 57-73 15-18 13-11
Favorite 61-35 26-11 23-13
Underdog 18-21 6-9 8-9
Home Favorite 59-35 25-10 15-9
Home Underdog 13-17 6-9 3-2
Road Favorite 24-27 7-7 8-4
Road Underdog 33-46 8-11 5-7
