My OperaNHL Betting Tip #10: Why does a Line Move?
Monday, February 4, 2013 10:11:35 AM
In the late 90’s, there were only a handful of online sportsbooks, I can remember the days where Intertops, BetCris, TheGreek, The Sands, TVC Casino, World Sports Exchange (WSEX) and Carib Sports were the leaders in the online gaming world. Man, have things change since then!
Yes, those were the good ole days, where a phone call was a contract and players enjoyed great customer service without having to fax over 20 piece of id.
The reason I’m bringing up the past, when a line move back then, it had significant meaning, because we knew the bigger players were playing with a certain Sportsbook, so when Betcris moved a line, it was money in the bank.
Nowadays, you have no clue who owns which sportsbooks and where the whales are playing. Pinnacle and TheGreek are still considered the books to monitor for line moves. Now, the books own several shops, so when a line is moving, they are basically shopping their lines or they are basically throwing a smoke screen to throw off the hedgers.
So, why does a line move? As you know, the smaller shops want balance action on a game. When a line moves, this means there’s too much action on one side of a game, thus cutting into the house’s profits.
A line move can be caused by a few things. It can occur when a “sharp player” (player respected by the sportsbooks) hits a sportsbook with some heavy action on a side or total. In order to get balance action, they must adjust the line. It could also come about when another sportsbook, who only takes sharp action, takes a hit on a side or total and needs to lay off their action. Consequently, you will see a domino effect with the other books, as they will mirror the line move. In this case, the line move will give you a “lean” towards the side or total of the game. The reason why other books move their lines like a domino effect, they don’t want to have a weak line posted and have the bigger boys’ clean house on their shop.
Again, this is 2013; there are various reasons why a line will move today, but back in the day, which was one of the main reasons why a line would move.
With the Super Bowl a week away, here’s a word of advice.
Bet smartly! As much as we all have our favorite team and players, do not let your emotions control your train of thought. If you bet on a team because you like the QB or you grew up in that area, that’s a good way to lose your shirt! Make sure you have reasoning or a theory behind all of your picks before you put down your hard earned money. The Super Bowl line is one of the sharpest lines you will encounter the entire year, so have fun and if you do wager on the game, just lay beer money type bets and enjoy the game for what it’s worth.
A lot of people will try to retire on this day, let me give you a word of advice, keep your day job! If you want to take a risk and bet something that could pay off, try betting on there will be a safety. If you do this, make sure you do it for the next 10 years in a row, eventually this prop will hit!
Good luck and go Ravens +3.5!
Yes, those were the good ole days, where a phone call was a contract and players enjoyed great customer service without having to fax over 20 piece of id.
The reason I’m bringing up the past, when a line move back then, it had significant meaning, because we knew the bigger players were playing with a certain Sportsbook, so when Betcris moved a line, it was money in the bank.
Nowadays, you have no clue who owns which sportsbooks and where the whales are playing. Pinnacle and TheGreek are still considered the books to monitor for line moves. Now, the books own several shops, so when a line is moving, they are basically shopping their lines or they are basically throwing a smoke screen to throw off the hedgers.
So, why does a line move? As you know, the smaller shops want balance action on a game. When a line moves, this means there’s too much action on one side of a game, thus cutting into the house’s profits.
A line move can be caused by a few things. It can occur when a “sharp player” (player respected by the sportsbooks) hits a sportsbook with some heavy action on a side or total. In order to get balance action, they must adjust the line. It could also come about when another sportsbook, who only takes sharp action, takes a hit on a side or total and needs to lay off their action. Consequently, you will see a domino effect with the other books, as they will mirror the line move. In this case, the line move will give you a “lean” towards the side or total of the game. The reason why other books move their lines like a domino effect, they don’t want to have a weak line posted and have the bigger boys’ clean house on their shop.
Again, this is 2013; there are various reasons why a line will move today, but back in the day, which was one of the main reasons why a line would move.
With the Super Bowl a week away, here’s a word of advice.
Bet smartly! As much as we all have our favorite team and players, do not let your emotions control your train of thought. If you bet on a team because you like the QB or you grew up in that area, that’s a good way to lose your shirt! Make sure you have reasoning or a theory behind all of your picks before you put down your hard earned money. The Super Bowl line is one of the sharpest lines you will encounter the entire year, so have fun and if you do wager on the game, just lay beer money type bets and enjoy the game for what it’s worth.
A lot of people will try to retire on this day, let me give you a word of advice, keep your day job! If you want to take a risk and bet something that could pay off, try betting on there will be a safety. If you do this, make sure you do it for the next 10 years in a row, eventually this prop will hit!
Good luck and go Ravens +3.5!
