The Future

The whole human race is living on only one celestial body.

Hawking told BBC radio that humans must colonize planets in other solar systems, or else a disaster will sooner or later wipe out humankind. We could be destroyed by a nuclear war or an asteroid collision like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs. In the middle of the cold war I told my surroundings the same. I had read that one should not keep all the eggs in the same basket. Nobody took any notice.

Humanity must venture off to other hospitable planets orbiting other stars. Once we spread out into independent colonies, our future should be safe. Conventional chemical fuel rockets that took man to the moon, would take 50,000 years to travel to such a star. Theoretical advances show that we could revolutionize the velocity of space travel and make such colonies possible.

Science fiction writers use warp drive, which takes you instantly to your destination. This violates the scientific law which says that nothing can travel faster than light. Using matter/antimatter, velocities just below the speed of light could be reached. Travelling to the next star would then last about six years. For those onboard the spaceship the travelling time will be shorter!

Perhaps people will listen to me now? At least many are listening to Stephen Hawking. On Stephen Hawking’s official website I found out we were borne the same year, I knew we were borne on the same celestial body.

How civilized are we?

Anthropologists Leslie White (1900-1975) developed the theory of cultural evolution, which was ignored by most of his contemporary peers. He suggested five stages of human development. First people use only their own muscles. In the second stage, they also used domesticated animals. The third stage is the agricultural revolution. In the fourth stage, people learn to use the energy from coal, oil and gas. The fifth and final stage is the harnessing of nuclear energy.

We, humankind on planet Earth, are now in stage four or five. Nuclear energy is for different reasons not so popular. Renewable energy, in particular solar energy, is not yet in much use probably for industrial and political reasons.

Kardashev's theory can be viewed as the expansion of some social theories. His scale has three categories, based on the amount of usable energy a civilization has at its disposal. Nikolai Kardashev (1932 - ) is an astronomer, and therefore used to big numbers:

Type I — A civilization that is able to harness all of the energy available on a single planet, presumably their home planet. Approximately 10¹⁶ W.
Type II — A civilization that is able to use all of the energy available from a single star. Approximately 10²⁶ W.
Type III — A civilization that is able to use all of the energy available from a single galaxy. Approximately 10³⁶ W.
The sizes of planets, stars and especially galaxies wary enormously, so the numbers can be increased by multiplying by 10 several times.
Type IV — Approximately 10⁴⁶ W is within a few orders of magnitude the energy output of the whole visible universe. Such a civilization may not be possible, based on current scientific understanding.

The Kardashev scale is of use to science fiction authors, SETI researchers, and futurists as a theoretical framework. Human civilization is currently below Type I. Carl Sagan (1934 - 1996) argued that other values could easily be defined by interpolating and extrapolating. He calculated humanity's current civilization to be 0,7.

So far global political and social developments are behind technological development. We are not yet one world. Still India and China might want to have their own space projects: their own astronauts, space lift, and/or Moon Colony. A civilization which has not reached Type I status might succumb to ice ages, asteroid collisions and nearby supernovas. We really need to build a Moon Colony, and start teraforming planet Mars.

The latest SF book I read is “The Eternity Artifact” by L.E. Modesitt, Jr. In this novel the humans had reacted about 2,7 and the aliens Type IV and above. I have not categorized most of the SF books that I have read, but here are a few exceptions:
Type I
3001: The Final Odyssey, by Arthur C. Clarke
The Fountains of Paradise, by Arthur C. Clarke
Type II
Ringworld, by Larry Niven
The Foundation Series, by Isaac Asimov
The feudal empire from Dune, by Frank Herbert
Type III
Type IV and above
The Gods Themselves, by Isaac Asimov
The Lensman series by E. E. Smith

Can education make a better world?

Due to low literacy level in Indonesia, Radio and TV programs is not enough in spreading information about bird flu. To teach all small farmers in this vast country, the central government has created teams of vets at district level. The teams try to visit every farmer and teach them: keep your chickens in a cage away from your house, clean regularly, and burn any chicken shit. A backyard farmer, who is currently saving money to replace his lost live stock, says he wishes he had known before to keep his birds in cages.

The teams are currently operating in just 9 of Indonesia's 29 affected provinces, due to lack of money. A government plans to vaccinate bird stocks is also having too little money. International donors have promised funding for next year that probably needs to be ten times bigger. Bird flu is only one of several major problems in Indonesia. Provinces with after-effect of tsunamis, earthquakes or malaria, put bird flu low on the priority list.

Indonesia is the country in the world that has reposted the most cases of bird flu. It has also confirmed bird flu in humans in possible clusters. This has raised fears of possible human transmission. If the H5N1 virus mutate to become easily transmissible between people, it could lead to a global pandemic.

A potential death toll of millions has led to precautions in the developed world. Is it not better to spend some of this money spent in developed countries instead in developing countries for educational purposes? A higher literacy level will not only increase the likelihood of absorbing info about bird flu, but it will make it easier to learn about any future problems that a local population can come across. Can more education help us to create a win-win world?

It took ten years for the PC “to conquer the world”.
Will robots in ten years from now, “be all over the place”?

When hearing the word robot, everyone who have seen “Star Wars”, will immediately picture the endearing robot R2-D2 (Artoo-Detoo) and the android. But some will think of industry robots welding or painting cars, others recall Isaac Asimov’s “I Robot”. Younger members of the Opera Community may think of the movie “I Robot”.

There is great interest in developing humanoid robots that can sense shapes, textures, and hardness and therefore handle complex objects. This is not readily possible by vision alone. A new material can revolutionize robots. A nanosheet has been produced witch can be wrapped around any surface, such as a robotic hand or a surgical instrument. These nanosheets consists of layers of metal and semiconductors and are only 100 nm thick. (1 nm = 10^-9 m. So 100 ^. 10^-9 m = 10^{2 .} 10^-9 m = 10^-7 m = 0,0000001 m.) Read more about nanosheets in National Geographic News: Robot Revolution: New Material Sensitive as Human Skin.
Microsoft is offering anyone to download a software kit for robots builders. Lego Mindstorm NXT have tested the MS software. A new generation Mindstorm robot-building kit is planned sold later this year according to the Danish manufacturer of play materials. South Korean scientists plan to put an advanced robot on the marked in time for the Christmas season. This robot can be programmed with the aid of a PC.

Ten partners in four countries (Germany, Switzerland, France and Portugal) aim to get a better understanding of 1) perception, 2) learning algorithms, and 3) Artificial Intelligence. Humans and robots are going to share a common environment. Bayes’ theorem helps researchers to gain a better understanding of perception and action in living beings. This will help to make artificial systems (read: robots). Bayesian Approach to Cognitive Systems, BACS have a home page in Switzerland.

An IBM computer scientist claims cognitive computing is making rapid progress towards simulating the humane brain. This, synthesis of 1) mathematics, 2) neuroscience, 3) computer science, and 4) psychology, is about to replace the term AI (artificial intelligence). This progress will quicken the introduction of robots into our every day life. But do we want robots in our homes to help us with daily tasks?

British scientists are studying how people interact with robots. They find out what future machines should look like and how they should behave, to be accepted by most people. American researchers find that robots are ideal testing platforms for multiple processors, because robots are the natural evolution of the PC.
Are robots the answer to immigration? Today “SimMan” teaches medical school students.

Personally I like robots if they look more like the android and not like Artoo-Detoo. And then I must insist that they abide by Asimov’s laws of robotics. If a mechanical butler will materialise within ten years, is more uncertain - only the future will show.




Isaac Asimov’s (1920-1992) three laws of robotics:

Introduced in Asimov’s 1942 short story "Runaround", the Laws state the following:

A robot

• may not harm a human being, or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
  
• must obey the orders given to it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
  
• must protect its own existence, as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
  

Thomas Bayes (1702-1761):

The probability of an event A conditional on another event B is generally different from the probability of B conditional on A. However, there is a definite relationship between the two, and Bayes' theorem is the statement of that relationship.