Sunday, August 26, 2012 12:03:53 AM
The talk of the hour is economic slump of these days. It started in Dec 2007 (According to National Bureau of Economic Survey, US). It has survived 5 years and lets say done pretty remarkable job by knocking down Europe in first round itself. I don't see any signs of improvement as of now. This so called "Economic growth" may come back on track (but odds are against it) but the real growth, which is development of people, is impossible with current model of credit or capitalism.
Let's see where world is heading. To fight against this economic slowdown or recession, the different camps have come up with two fighters. One that US and Europe has under its banner. Another that China, India, Brazil, Singapore are projecting.
First opponent 245 pounds... oh wait, its not a real fighter. Its a model that US is following. I will name it "historical austerity" model. In this brilliant model, backed by strong lobbyists (it will make sense a bit later in the blog), they are transferring this huge debt to people in terms of taxes, austerity cuts, public spending cuts, social schemes cuts etc as they used it in past. Thats why I used the word "historical". This will ultimately lead to class clashes.
The second contestant against the slowdown is, Chinese model. Here in developing countries, the control lies more with the government and the private businesses (and so lobbyists) are not much stronger. So they can direct banking policies. In china, in 2009, the 30 million chinese people lost their jobs as the export industry crashed. U can corelate this to US and European market falls. In about Dec 2009 IMF did a survey in China and found that there has been only 3 million job loss. They created about 27 million jobs in about 6 months! the scene behind the stage was that Chinese govt (Unlike US govt which has strong influence of corporations) told banks to LEND. they started the heavy infrastructure programs. In last few years China alone has been consuming world's half steel and cement. The prices of properties rose. then around after an year the price bubble burst and the prices of properties fell about 20%. You see the govt was creating demand. So again they went to banks and told them to lend again and circle is going on. In India too things are going this way. Govt is spending on public infrastructure, MNREGA project for example, various health programs etc. So they are creating demand and they are driving growth about 10% and 9% (I might not hit the bird's eye, see the stats on google) while the growth in US was 1% and Europe was 0%. As a result, the inflation is zooming in in those countries (later camp).
So who would I bet my money on?
US contender is degrading environment and creating a huge class gap between masses. The later Chinese camp is nothing but a light weight version of US fighter.
What's the future now? who'll win?
As they say in weather that the next day weather will remain as of today has a probability of 60%, this thing won't change overnight. There are going to be many rounds, but this particular GDP based "economic growth" (and its compound growth, mind you) will have to give way to more meaningful "humanity based" growth. but with a system of Credit and capital, I don't see any future.
Call me pessimist, but I have this very bad habit of being right everytime.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012 7:58:48 PM
Well those people who can get offended by the title only are free to leave the screen now.
if you are still reading the line, it may lead you to true knowledge. I have been searching internet from time to time about this whole God idea. One day I found a very good explanation of God concept. The person who was describing god was Dr. Stephen Hawkings, the famous scientist. I believe they have a very rational thinking. So I went on watching the video.
Here is how he explained it. (I am trying to explain this in my own language)
I was very curious about God. When people used to say that what we have got in this life is a result of sins we have done in previous life. So I explored and found that there is no God. Everything is driven by Nature. There is no divine purpose of life.
let me try to explain this to you with the help of an example. I suppose you have seen the game of tennis. Suppose a player returns the tennis ball and it goes just about an inch away from the line. But, tomorrow, let's suppose, the ITF (International Tennis Federation) declares that the courts from now on will be bigger by 2 inches. They can do so. They also might change the other rules, for instance, the height of the net, the total number of serves each player do and so on.
But the trajectory that the ball will follow after hitting the tennis bat can not be changed, the gravity will always win. They even can not eliminate the frictional forces between the tennis ball and the grass. They will never be able to changes these even if they wish to.
The "rules" is "Religion" here. It can be changed as the ITF (or your religious leader) wants it to be. The later phenomena is unchangeable, that is nature. It was so before millions of years and will remain to be same even after millions of years even if we are here or not as a human race.
Now, some religious people will say, oh yeah! who created this nature then?
Well he had a nice explanation for that too. In his words (as close as I can recall):
To answer the question who created all the universe, let's think of an example from day to day life. Suppose you are falling. Now there are causes for this like someone could have pushed you hard, you might have stumbled over any obstacle etc.
In day to day life everything have a cause. This is cause-effect "sense", which we may say, a common sense. Now let's try to apply this to the something which will lead us back to something very interesting.
There is a river flowing down the hill. The main cause is water on the hill.
How water reached there?
Probably by rain.
What caused the rain?
Evaporation which occurs due to sun rays.
What causes sun rays?
The nuclear fusion of Hydrogen inside the core of Sun.
What caused the Hydrogen?
The big bang.
What caused the big bang?
Now that's where our common sense lead us to assume the role of a prime power. Let me give you some results of science and then I will get back to original question. There are these massive dead stars which are so heavy that they stop the time for us. The matter is too concentrated there that even light can not escape them.
At the time of big bang, the whole universe was a single point. There was no time before that. The time started there. There wasn't even the space. We can't even image that.
So my question is, how god made the universe? It must take sometime to create something, but when he doesn't have time and space, how could he create the universe.
You might say, that what caused the Universe into existence. Then my answer would be, this question is your habit of thinking with "common-sense" of "cause-effect". In quantum physics, the sub-atomic particles are generated out of nothing and are disappeared without a trace. The cause-effect fails there, it also failed at the start.
This is quite a nice explanation.
Currently there are being experiments at CERN to discover the graviton. If it is discovered(or more accurately, disappeared) we can even tell the causes of big bang. Those who might be interested in that can read "M theory".
Stephen hawking is wrong, maybe. Einstein proved Newton wrong. But laws given by Newton are still applicable.
What the religious people call God, that is Nature. What they call are rules of a religion, are bullshit.
Friday, May 25, 2012 4:27:39 AM
If you live in one of the Asian countries, you would understand my point. This is not hate, this is not irritation, this is purely the absurd situation in most of these countries.
20 minutes is the time it take me from my place to new office building. I usually work in afternoon time from 3PM to 12AM IST. However, due to some stupid reasons, they called us early today. The thing which struck me when I was in cab, the traffic. There were so many people standing on the road, almost twice the number was rushing towards the area I work. This is first time I went in morning and this was disgusting. There is nothing wrong with the huge number of people going somewhere but my point is, almost 98 percent of those people were at almost the very edge of insanity which is spreading like forest fire. They were like daily wage workers. I guess the area where I work is a Special Economic Zone where MNCs are situated, what the hell they were going for.
second thing, I know its our moral duty and I would term it humanity that we must help people who are in need.
But to what extent?
Isn't there anything called nature which eliminates the weak?
To first question, lets see the stats about India first. The country is the home to world's second largest population in the world with 7th rank in total surface area. The population is whopping 1.2 Billion and counting. This is the country with about roughly the one third of the total poor in the world. According to UNDP in 2010, 37.2% in India were below poverty line! The hunger index is too high.. Govt is spending in billions to save the people below poverty line, but there is a little negligible change even after that.
what went wrong? Any guesses?
the problem is not that government is not spending enough or doesn't have policies for inclusive growth, the problem is the number of people in India. As many says, why is not this the problem in china then whose population is more than India's. Well the former has a larger land area and it looks a pretty solution to me that there is no democracy.
what problem can cause democracy?
it is the government of people, by people, for people. Well, it is not the case when you have a very poor literacy ( here by literacy I mean the people who actually have the knowledge about the government policies and the general knowledge that everyone is expected to have in a democracy.). the caste, religion plays a great role in Indian politics. Here a particular sect sees its own leader as a savior of themselves. So when he gets elected on this ground, what can you expect from this guy? to be secular or be a leader of different opinions?
that is the problem what's currently paralyzing the Indian democracy now-a-days. You can see example of it in Rajasthan, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh etc. In first two mentioned states, the people who are in majority in their respective states are demanding a reservation in jobs on the basis of their percentage in total population. that's funny! the third state wants a separate state. I believe the leaders of the area aren't getting enough chances of making money from the combined state.
Another problem, the religion. There are minorities declared by government in Nation Minorities scheme or some like that. The Muslims are also a minority. The community consists of around 13.8 percent of 1.2 billions. that must be a big number. And based on their social-economic conditions (which I believe is because of the quality of education they get in traditional muslim madarrasas), the also need a pie of the reservation cake.
I was reading and kind of participating in a debate over the National Integration of Rivers in India. The plan, according to government (in turn a committee constituted by NDA govt in 1997) is that they will connect the Himalayan Rivers with four main rivers in Central India (Tapi) and southern India (Godavari, Krishna, Cauvery)with a series of artificial canals and dams. The argument to support the project is that the Ganges is water rich, flowing 12 months an year and thus have surplus water. And this water can be shifted to Southern rivers for irrigation and drinking purposes.
Now the problems, the committee who suggested this report haven't had any idea of what we call feasibility in terms of implementation. they saw few numbers in the excel sheets and just forwarded this to govt. If only they knew that the elevation of those southern rivers originating from Western ghats is more than that of Ganges, I guess they could have thought about it a second time. The energy that would be consumed to raise the water to that level will be simply too much to do any good. then there are ecological, environmental problems. Millions of people will be displaced and all the shit.
Last but not the least problem is, the resources required in this project most likely exceeds Indian budget of a whole year.
enough about the project, the argument given by one was that by 2050 India's population will be like 1.6 billion or something and the food grain required for this number of people is around 350 Million Tonnes. Well I dont see how can we meet the problems deficiency of food if we don't stop growing numbers mindlessly. There is a physical limit of everything, Nature has its own. When the population grows too much, nature will destroy excess by food deficiency, catastrophic weather events like floods, droughts, illness etc.
The impression of image in my mind that I got after 20 Minutes of journey was that "we are screwed". there is no remedy for this. There should be something like a war or something to do kill all the extra "Animals" from this land.
PS: I was not being cruel there. Once you see the world the way I see, you will say the same.
Friday, May 4, 2012 9:56:51 PM
Today, as time is passing by, I am feeling more like an alien who doesn't understand what is happening here on this strange blue planet.
As it always happen, this kind of feelings start to strike me from every direction from work. I can tell you right now that there is almost 99.99 percent employees in whole world who doesn't know the P of professionalism. Not only professional etiquette, they lack the basoc social behaviour. When I see them hovering from this seat to that, chatting to each other about others (strangely enough, they call me anti-social) and completely, absolutely unaware of responsibilities what they are paid for, I recall a documentary which I used to watch on Discovery channel. That was very simple video. A bunch of so called "Anthropologists" fix some cameras around some orangutans in wild. After filming them for few months, they try to explain their behaviors and relationships with other members of the group. I also seem to share same feeling and pain. The guys and girls at work make no sense at all to me. Then, puzzled, I try my best to make sense out of those actions or words. It's always fine with me until someone catches my nerves. If you are sitting at your desk, working on something or at least pretending to work, this is not my business to disturb you. I wish everyone could understand this and apply this to their daily routine that we go there to work and not socialize. Work is priority.
Now there are some other background stories, you know they invented the text messages to keep your mind in a parallel universe where you can be when you chose to be. But if you've ever seen a sci-fi or read about parallel worlds, they are not pleasant all the times, if they were, it would have been such a violation of probability.
To make the long story short, someone pissed me off. Can't help words, I felt so. that is a bit personal what happened, but it surely made me wonder "Really? why do I have to be on the wrong side? ALWAYS??"
By and by, the night came. Now do you remember how does it feel when you try to avoid some people and they come right in front of you exactly when you won't want them to be? that is the most irritating thing. And that is what makes my mind think "Why fucking Nature created those lunatics?" and every good thing you felt, vanishes like smoke in air. and your day becomes a total hell which you always tried to avoid.
I hope tomorrow's got no shit like this.
(my toothpaste moment)
Sunday, April 1, 2012 7:57:45 PM
In 1970's a Muslim guy divorced his wife Shah Bano. Her age at that time was 48 years old. She had 5 children and did not have any property in her name. Her husband refused to pay alimony or paid it in few hundred Rupees as decided decades back. So she approached supreme court. Now supreme court ruled that the husband had to give the compensation to the former wife.
This looks pretty straight case, however, here comes the dirty politics. There was a prominent Muslim member in government. According to Shariya laws, the divorce was perfect and no compensation should have been given to Shah Bano. So the guy approached then Prime Minister of India Rajiv Gandhi and asked that if this kind of things kept happening with the religious matters of Muslims (he actually made it a religious issue!!), congress would lose its Muslim vote bank. So a bill was introduced in Parliament related to Muslim personal Law and it was passed.
The things are alright til now, but the catch was when the government added this law in Schedule IX of Indian constitution. let's get to some basics here first. Any law passed by legislative in India is liable to judicial review by Supreme court of the country. the supreme court can nullified and declare a law as "Null and Void" if it finds the law violating the constitution. But the Schedule IX, and the laws under it could not be challenged in the court. In other words, if a law is passed and placed in IXth schedule, it was the rule, no one could challenge it.
So now the Shah Bano verdict was nullified. However, interestingly another force came into picture now, the Hindus. Some of the party members of congress suggested Prime minister that by doing this kind of religious favors for Muslims, he was jeopardizing his Hindu vote bank.
Rajiv Gandhi, thus, in an attempt to please the Hindus, ordered to open the gates of disputed Babri Masjid of Ayodhya. And you know the rest of story. There was a great communal riot, bomb blasts of 1998(or 1993?) in Bombay and many others.
So this is how the religion plays a great role in Indian politics. I personally believe Rajiv Gandhi was a good human being but he lacked the vision a prime minister should have.
I have no intentions of blaming Shah Bano for the events took place later. but the thing is, how a simple lawsuit resulted into catastrophic chain of events. Its unbelievable. But common, this is India, Incredible India!
P.S.: The schedule IX of constitution is now under purview of Judicial review. In 2008, Supreme court ordered that any law added in Schedule after 1973 will be liable to Judicial review. But funny thing is, there was none added after that decision of court.
Sunday, April 1, 2012 3:02:38 PM
The purpose of this blog is not to open the bee-hive of relations between Hindu Muslim relationship in India. this is purely the historical analysis which I learnt recently. To make you familiar with the subject, lets see the stats. India is a secular state. It's secular principles are different from the West secular principles. In Western countries, there will be no religion involved in politics. but in India the state will protect and give freedom to each of Dharma (this is somewhat same to religion. However, Dharma is a way of living while religion is just way of worshiping). So India is house of every religion on planet. The Hindus are in majority followed by some 15% Muslims ( 15% of 1.2 billions, do your maths here please). Thats a pretty big number.
In words of Adolf Hitler "Every problem in present, you can find its roots in your history". So this problem which has caused India Pak partition, 4 wars, communal riots has to have a root somewhere. The needle stops somewhere in 19th century when India ( today's India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) was colonial state of Britain. In 1857, there was a revolt against the British rule (it failed, that's quite another story). But anyway, the British were quite intelligent. They had a golden policy of "Divide and Rule". So just to make sure that there should not be any revolt of this kind, they found a very unique way.
They simply blamed the Muslims for the revolt and sided the Indian National Congress back then. Congress leaders did not have vision to understand the game and fell into the trap. So the muslims felt alienated. The story goes on for quite few years till beginning of 20th century. Around 1905 the British announced the partition of Bengal province into two major parts on the basis of Hindu and Muslim majority population. The excuse was that it would ease the administration of the region, no one bought the story. another reason of dividing Hindu Muslim was to avoid the the chances of another major revolt as the united people could do that again. They fed the top Muslim leaders that Congress was a Hindu organisation and the Muslims should make another organisation to suit their interests. So on the Aug 1, 1906 a Muslim delegation met the then Viceroy of India Minto-2 leaded by Sir Aghan Khan. And finally by the financial help of British rule, on 13th Dec, 1906 Muslim League was formed by Sir Aghan Khan, Nawab-A-Dhaka, Salimullah and Wasim-ul-Mulk. the leaders of this new organisation were clueless about the purpose of the organisation, I personally think that was because they themselves never considered Muslims outsiders. Anyway, the main aim of the organisation was to remain loyal to British.
then came the first world war and The Calipah was destroyed by British and her allies. The Muslim League responded and the congress supported them in the cause in Khilafat movement.
but the moral of the story, damage has already been done. there was a mindset among Muslims that they were minority in the state and under congress their future was not secure. so the partition took place.
the present problems, and the main issue, are because of that sick mentality seeded by British rulers. Pakistan, specially few radicals in the country, sends some terrorists and the killing occurs. then, the local Indian radical Muslims or Hindus spark the plug by killing some people and then the chain reaction start.
I am a Hindu by birth, I never felt any kind of insecurity by a Muslim fellow. For me they are as much Indian as I am. But the real problem lies in the mind of few people across the country which has resulted in millions of deaths on both sides of border. I really wish the leaders could have attend a few history lectures and avoid the vote bank politics.
Thursday, February 2, 2012 7:30:41 AM
i just woke up and want to write down what i saw in dream because i have tendency to forget dreams after sometime.
so i saw something like this:
i was walking somewhere and people were staring at sky in full day. when i looked up, i saw something that shook me. the sun was full of animation. there were many Suns in the sky like you see in laser show. they are swirling and some kind of on off thing was there with our Sun. it went off and on.
Next thing i remember was the great shower of something and a flood. i saw the water everywhere. the houses were flooded and the earth seemed to be cracked up. everything seemed to be made up of sand. i feel like that in dream i also felt earthquake.
rest of things are personal. i was going somewhere and train did not stop at the place it was supposed to. next station when i jumped out of running train, i thought the world is near its end. it had rained and my mind made me believe that there must be a great flood. i called someone up told things to them.
our mind is our master, we believe what it feels. so couple of hours back, i was in a world that was being torn down to pieces. although i did not see many people, i saw things happening that were true in dream. the most horrible was around 20 Suns swirling in the sky.
well it was just a dream. doomsday is never gonna come in my lifetime .
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