Posts tagged with "Books"
Tuesday, June 17, 2008 1:56:29 AM
Food, Entertainment, Books, wordpress
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Will always be forgotten holiday.
Last month, missed the Mother's Day, today almost missed Father's Day.
Treatment of family members, more often, I like a Moxinmofei children.
Jue is very bad, and parents often talk back, insisting that their point of view is correct.
Also like the ground to a generation gap, to bring the issue on the mind, so they know their own Xiangxieshime.
Calls can not remember when asked about her mother's illness, care for her father's work.
Listen to his speech, impatient mother, often the size of drunken father smoking sound.
So in the eyes of parents, I have always been a stubborn bad temper children.
But they do not blame me. I just silently endured the bad, and then reminded me treat others can not.
Parents are not accustomed to express their feelings of the people. Silently support is the best care.
I am grateful for their trust and let go.
I believe that. I support the decision. I work alone and to the freedom of decision.
Things will be encountered when I asked about the idea of listening to my proposal.
I think that is very good. I mentioned, the tone, are filled with love and pride.
Sometimes feel that their release was a wild heart.
Inconsistent with any form of restraint. Including marriage and family.
Always let them worry about, but only to their own selfish feelings.
This topic has been two months has focused on the young girl on. Before the test, followed by volunteers.
His father repeatedly complained that the students grasp a lifetime entrance examination, test their daughters to school but do not know how to do.
One mother also want to force, but they do not understand that we are discussing the various professional schools and the topic,
Only the most optimistic young girl, she said okay, I feel sad moment, the results have been bad. After the efforts of the Council.
I am also excited to tell a few days the end of the school things go on in Duangong.
Feel that they owe a lot.
I am in the process of growth, in my most difficult days, when I faced the choice, they are accompanied me, support me.
But now, parents need to gradually Laoqu even more people care, I can not take in around them.
Young girl homework well, I can not help her in her side, for her tuition.
I can only hope that her mother every weekend make a phone chat with her. But also often because of all the trivial things and delays.
But in any case, so that they are satisfied with the efforts of my greatest motivation.
Their joy and happiness to my life are very important.
Monday, June 2, 2008 5:40:51 AM
Entertainment, Books, wordpress, Sports
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Had a bad day yesterday so sent P&D home lunch time, told him not to come till tomorrow, whole place is "a tip oil" I could do with a spare room or six! O well "It'll be reet!" At least I will be on line today, got to keep my eye on you lot.
Go and get carpets Wednesday, Thursday will be another half day coz I have two meetings one in the afternoon and one at night, Friday shopping, Saturday painting ceiling, Sunday trip to Whitby, Yay! Dell not coming so no-one to play on the slotties with, lin!
"Normal Service will be resumed on Monday" if all goes to plan, then I can get everything back where it belongs.
This is turning into a rant! I don't do "Rant"
Now where do I put half a hundredweight of Minutes, reports and various other documents that have to be kept, Oh!
Friday, May 30, 2008 2:10:24 AM
Food, Entertainment, Books, wordpress
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The greatest,Melt me down,To big black armour,Leave no trace,Of grace,Just in your honor,Lower me down,That corporate slob,Make a watch,For a space in town,For the lack of the drugs,My faith had been sleeping,Lower me down,In the end,Secure the grounds,For the later parade.
To be a greatest person.I think he must be a kindheart and easy person,he must be a talented person and not selfish.So I think he must be Bill Gate. Once I wanted to be the greatest,No wind or waterfall could stop me And then came the rush of the flood,The stars at night turned you to dust.
When you told me you loved me,Once,Doesn't mean anything to me,Come,Show me the meaning of complete,Where ,Did our love go wrong.Once we were so strong,How can I go on?,When you told me you loved me,Did you know it would take me the rest of my life,to get over the feeling of knowing.
Once I wanted to be the greatest,Two faced, sad little rock,When things I couldn't explain,Any feelings,
Lower me down,In the end,Secure the grounds,For the lack of the drugs,My faith had been sleeping,For the later parade.
A dream didn't turn out right,When you let me believe that you weren't complete,Without me by your side,how could I know,That you would go,That you would run,Baby, I thought you were the one.
Once I wanted to be the greatest,Two faced, sad little rock,When things I couldn't explain,Any feelings,Lower me down,In the end,Secure the grounds,For the lack of the drugs,My faith had been sleepingFor the later parade.Why,Can't I just leave it all behind,I felt passion so bright that I was blind,Then,Something made me weak,Talking in my sleep,Baby, I'm in so deep and you know I believed,When you told me you loved me,Did you know it would take me the rest of my life,to get over the feeling of knowing,A dream didn't turn out right,When you let me believe that you weren't complete,Without me by your side.How could I know.That you would go,That you would run.
Melt me down,To big black armour,Leave no trace,Of grace,Just in your honor,Lower me down,That corporate slob,Make a watch,For a space in town,For the lack of the drugs,My faith had been sleeping,Lower me down,In the end,Secure the grounds,For the later parade.
Baby, I thought you were the one,Your lips,Your face,Something that time just can't erase,My heart,Could break,All over again,When you told me you loved me,Did you know it would take me the rest of my life,to get over the feeling of knowing,A dream didn't turn out right,When you let me believe that you weren't complete,Without me by your side,how could I know,That you would go,That you would run,Baby, I thought you were the one.
Once I wanted to be the greatest,Two faced, sad little rock,When things I couldn't explain,Any feelings,Lower me down,In the end,Secure the grounds,For the lack of the drugs,My faith had been sleeping,For the later parade,Once I wanted to be the greatest,No wind or water fall could stop me,And then came the rush of the flood,The stars at night turned you to dust.
Melt me down,To big black armour,Leave no trace,Of grace,Just in your honor,Lower me down,That corporate slob,Make a watch,For a space in town,For the lack of the drugs,My faith had been sleeping,Lower me down,In the end,Secure the grounds,For the later parade.
Thursday, May 29, 2008 3:10:17 AM
Food, Entertainment, Books, wordpress
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our future’s soul
Teach them well
let them lead the way
my soul's the sky——my flying soul!
Show them all the beauty they possess inside
the lightnight flare,the thunder roll,
Give them a sense of pride to make it easier
the sun and moon and stars go by,
Let the children's laughter remind us how we used to be
and great winds sweep my soul,the sky!
Everybody's searching for a hero
People need someone to look up to
my brooding soul——my soul's the sea!
I never found anyone who fulfilled my needs
the snaky weed,and whishing scree,
A lonely place to be and so I learned to depend on me
the white wave's surge from pole to pole,
and still green depth——the sea's my soul!
I decided long ago
Never to walk in anyone's shadows
If I fail, If I succeed
At least I lived as I believed
my soul's the spring——my loveing soul!
will dance,and leap,and drain the bowl of love
and longing,twine and cling
to all the world——my soul's the spring!
No matter what they take from me
They can't take away my dignity
Because the greatest love of all is happening to me
my fevered soul!my soul's the town!
thro'flaring street goes up and down;
the bells of feast and traffic toll
and maze their music in my soul.
I've found the greatest love of all inside of me
The greatest love of all is easy to achieve
Learning to love yourself, it is the greatest love of all
our future’s soul
Teach them well
let them lead the way
Show them all the beauty they possess inside
Give them a sense of pride to make it easier
Let the children's laughter remind us how we used to be
I decided long ago
Never to walk in anyone's shadows
I fail, I succeed
I lived as I believed
No matter what they take from me
my tranquil soul!my soul too wide
for sky,or spring,town,or tide!
thou traveller to outer strand
of home serene——my soul so grand!
They can't take away my dignity
the greatest love is happening to me
I've found the greatest love of all inside of me
cloistered amid these austere rocks,
a brooding seer,i watched an hour,
close to the earth,lost to all else,
the marvel of a tiny flower.
Learning to love yourself,
it is the greatest love of all
Leads you to a lonely place
Find your strength in love
Wednesday, May 28, 2008 1:28:25 AM
Entertainment, Books, wordpress, Random
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the more we live,
more brief appear
our life's succeeding stages;
dip and swing,lift and sway;
dream a life,in a dream,away.
a day to childhood seems a year,
and years like passing ages.
the gladsome current of our youth,
ere passion yet disorders,
steals lingering like a river smooth,
along its grassy borders.
like a dream in a sleep
is the rose in the wind;
but as the care-worn cheets grow wan,
and sorrow's shafts fly thicker,
ye stars, that measure life to man,
why seem your courses quicker?
and a fish in the deep;
and a man in the mind;
when joys have lost their bloom and breath
and life itself is vapid,
why, as we reach the falls of death,
feel we its tide more rapid?
it may be strange-yet who would change
dreaming to lack all that is his;
dreaming to gain all that he is.
time's coures to slower speeding,
when one by one our friends have gone
and left our bosoms bleeding?
dreaming a life, in a dream,away
dip and swing, lift and sway.
heaven gives our years of fading strength
indemnifying fleetness;
and those of youth,a seeming length,
proportion'd their sweetness.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008 2:37:33 AM
Food, Entertainment, Books, Sports
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In 1968, Tom Knapp and Ed Anderson, also a Graham disciple, along with one or two other fellows of similar persuasion, formed Tweedy, Browne Partners, and their investment results appear in Table 2. Tweedy, Browne built that record with very wide diversification. They occasionally bought control of businesses, but the record of the passive investments is equal to the record of the control investments.
Table 3 describes the third member of the group who formed Buffett Partnership in 1957. The best thing he did was to quit in 1969. Since then, in a sense, Berkshire Hathaway has been a continuation of the partnership in some respects. There is no single index I can give you that I would feel would be a fair test of investment management at Berkshire. But I think that any way you figure it, it has been satisfactory.
Table 4 shows the record of the Sequoia Fund, which is managed by a man whom I met in 1951 in Ben Graham's class, Bill Ruane. After getting out of Harvard Business School, he went to Wall Street. Then he realized that he needed to get a real business education so he came up to take Ben's course at Columbia, where we met in early 1951. Bill's record from 1951 to 1970, working with relatively small sums, was far better than average. When I wound up Buffett Partnership I asked Bill if he would set up a fund to handle all our partners, so he set up the Sequoia Fund. He set it up at a terrible time, just when I was quitting. He went right into the two-tier market and all the difficulties that made for comparative performance for value-oriented investors. I am happy to say that my partners, to an amazing degree, not only stayed with him but added money, with the happy result shown here.
There's no hindsight involved here. Bill was the only person I recommended to my partners, and I said at the time that if he achieved a four-point-per-annum advantage over the Standard & Poor's, that would be solid performance. Bill has achieved well over that, working with progressively larger sums of money. That makes things much more difficult. Size is the anchor of performance. There is no question about it. It doesn't mean you can't do better than average when you get larger, but the margin shrinks. And if you ever get so you're managing two trillion dollars, and that happens to be the amount of the total equity valuation in the economy, don't think that you'll do better than average! I should add that in the records we've looked at so far, throughout this whole period there was practically no duplication in these portfolios. These are men who select securities based on discrepancies between price and value, but they make their selections very differently. Walter's largest holdings have been such stalwarts as Hudson Pulp & Paper and Jeddo Highland Coal and New York Trap Rock Company and all those other names that come instantly to mind to even a casual reader of the business pages. Tweedy Browne's selections have sunk even well below that level in terms of name recognition. On the other hand, Bill has worked with big companies. The overlap among these portfolios has been very, very low. These records do not reflect one guy calling the flip and fifty people yelling out the same thing after him. Table 5 is the record of a friend of mine who is a Harvard Law graduate, who set up a major law firm. I ran into him in about 1960 and told him that law was fine as a hobby but he could do better. He set up a partnership quite the opposite of Walter's. His portfolio was concentrated in very few securities and therefore his record was much more volatile but it was based on the same discount-from-value approach. He was willing to accept greater peaks and valleys of performance, and he happens to be a fellow whose whole psyche goes toward concentration, with the results shown. Incidentally, this record belongs to Charlie Munger, my partner for a long time in the operation of Berkshire Hathaway. When he ran his partnership, however, his portfolio holdings were almost completely different from mine and the other fellows mentioned earlier. Table 6 is the record of a fellow who was a pal of Charlie Munger's -- another non-business school type -- who was a math major at USC. He went to work for IBM after graduation and was an IBM salesman for a while. After I got to Charlie, Charlie got to him. This happens to be the record of Rick Guerin. Rick, from 1965 to 1983, against a compounded gain of 316 percent for the S&P, came off with 22,200 percent, which probably because he lacks a business school education, he regards as statistically significant.
One sidelight here: it is extraordinary to me that the idea of buying dollar bills for 40 cents takes immediately to people or it doesn't take at all. It's like an inoculation. If it doesn't grab a person right away, I find that you can talk to him for years and show him records, and it doesn't make any difference. They just don't seem able to grasp the concept, simple as it is. A fellow like Rick Guerin, who had no formal education in business, understands immediately the value approach to investing and he's applying it five minutes later. I've never seen anyone who became a gradual convert over a ten-year period to this approach. It doesn't seem to be a matter of IQ or academic training. It's instant recognition, or it is nothing.
Table 7 is the record of Stan Perlmeter. Stan was a liberal arts major at the University of Michigan who was a partner in the advertising agency of Bozell & Jacobs. We happened to be in the same building in Omaha. In 1965 he figured out I had a better business than he did, so he left advertising. Again, it took five minutes for Stan to embrace the value approach.
Perlmeter does not own what Walter Schloss owns. He does not own what Bill Ruane owns. These are records made independently. But every time Perlmeter buys a stock it's because he's getting more for his money than he's paying. That's the only thing he's thinking about. He's not looking at quarterly earnings projections, he's not looking at next year's earnings, he's not thinking about what day of the week it is, he doesn't care what investment research from any place says, he's not interested in price momentum, volume, or anything. He's simply asking: what is the business worth?
Table 8 and Table 9 are the records of two pension funds I've been involved in. They are not selected from dozens of pension funds with which I have had involvement; they are the only two I have influenced. In both cases I have steered them toward value-oriented managers. Very, very few pension funds are managed from a value standpoint. Table 8 is the Washington Post Company's Pension Fund. It was with a large bank some years ago, and I suggested that they would do well to select managers who had a value orientation.
As you can see, overall they have been in the top percentile ever since they made the change. The Post told the managers to keep at least 25 percent of these funds in bonds, which would not have been necessarily the choice of these managers. So I've included the bond performance simply to illustrate that this group has no particular expertise about bonds. They wouldn't have said they did. Even with this drag of 25 percent of their fund in an area that was not their game, they were in the top percentile of fund management. The Washington Post experience does not cover a terribly long period but it does represent many investment decisions by three managers who were not identified retroactively.
Table 9 is the record of the FMC Corporation fund. I don't manage a dime of it myself but I did, in 1974, influence their decision to select value-oriented managers. Prior to that time they had selected managers much the same way as most larger companies. They now rank number one in the Becker survey of pension funds for their size over the period of time subsequent to this "conversion" to the value approach. Last year they had eight equity managers of any duration beyond a year. Seven of them had a cumulative record better than the S&P. The net difference now between a median performance and the actual performance of the FMC fund over this period is $243 million. FMC attributes this to the mindset given to them about the selection of managers. Those managers are not the managers I would necessarily select but they have the common denominators of selecting securities based on value.
So these are nine records of "coin-flippers" from Graham-and-Doddsville. I haven't selected them with hindsight from among thousands. It's not like I am reciting to you the names of a bunch of lottery winners -- people I had never heard of before they won the lottery. I selected these men years ago based upon their framework for investment decision-making. I knew what they had been taught and additionally I had some personal knowledge of their intellect, character, and temperament. It's very important to understand that this group has assumed far less risk than average; note their record in years when the general market was weak. While they differ greatly in style, these investors are, mentally, always buying the business, not buying the stock. A few of them sometimes buy whole businesses. Far more often they simply buy small pieces of businesses. Their attitude, whether buying all or a tiny piece of a business, is the same. Some of them hold portfolios with dozens of stocks; others concentrate on a handful. But all exploit the difference between the market price of a business and its intrinsic value.
I'm convinced that there is much inefficiency in the market. These Graham-and-Doddsville investors have successfully exploited gaps between price and value. When the price of a stock can be influenced by a "herd" on Wall Street with prices set at the margin by the most emotional person, or the greediest person, or the most depressed person, it is hard to argue that the market always prices rationally. In fact, market prices are frequently nonsensical.
I would like to say one important thing about risk and reward. Sometimes risk and reward are correlated in a positive fashion. If someone were to say to me, "I have here a six-shooter and I have slipped one cartridge into it. Why don't you just spin it and pull it once? If you survive, I will give you $1 million." I would decline -- perhaps stating that $1 million is not enough. Then he might offer me $5 million to pull the trigger twice -- now that would be a positive correlation between risk and reward!
The exact opposite is true with value investing. If you buy a dollar bill for 60 cents, it's riskier than if you buy a dollar bill for 40 cents, but the expectation of reward is greater in the latter case. The greater the potential for reward in the value portfolio, the less risk there is.
One quick example: The Washington Post Company in 1973 was selling for $80 million in the market. At the time, that day, you could have sold the assets to any one of ten buyers for not less than $400 million, probably appreciably more. The company owned the Post, Newsweek, plus several television stations in major markets. Those same properties are worth $2 billion now, so the person who would have paid $400 million would not have been crazy.
Now, if the stock had declined even further to a price that made the valuation $40 million instead of $80 million, its beta would have been greater. And to people that think beta measures risk, the cheaper price would have made it look riskier. This is truly Alice in Wonderland. I have never been able to figure out why it's riskier to buy $400 million worth of properties for $40 million than $80 million. And, as a matter of fact, if you buy a group of such securities and you know anything at all about business valuation, there is essentially no risk in buying $400 million for $80 million, particularly if you do it by buying ten $40 million piles of $8 million each. Since you don't have your hands on the $400 million, you want to be sure you are in with honest and reasonably competent people, but that's not a difficult job.
You also have to have the knowledge to enable you to make a very general estimate about the value of the underlying businesses. But you do not cut it close. That is what Ben Graham meant by having a margin of safety. You don't try and buy businesses worth $83 million for $80 million. You leave yourself an enormous margin. When you build a bridge, you insist it can carry 30,000 pounds, but you only drive 10,000 pound trucks across it. And that same principle works in investing.
In conclusion, some of the more commercially minded among you may wonder why I am writing this article. Adding many converts to the value approach will perforce narrow the spreads between price and value. I can only tell you that the secret has been out for 50 years, ever since Ben Graham and Dave Dodd wrote Security Analysis, yet I have seen no trend toward value investing in the 35 years that I've practiced it. There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult. The academic world, if anything, has actually backed away from the teaching of value investing over the last 30 years. It's likely to continue that way. Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace, and those who read their Graham & Dodd will continue to prosper.
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