Tokai Earthquakes
Wednesday, 22. November 2006, 18:56:45
Waiting for the Big One
No one (so far) can predict when it will hit or where or how strong it will be. But the experts are certain of one thing: it will hit.
One of the most dangerous earthquake areas on earth is the Island of Honshu, Japan. Here the Pacific, Okhotsk, Eurasian (or should I say Amurian?) and Philippine Plates converge to generate major earthquakes with an average recurrence interval of about 100 to 150 years. These major earthquakes are known as the "Tokai Earthquakes". Tokai is an area southwest of Tokyo at the coast around Suruga Bay. The four most recent Tokai Earthquakes occurred in 1854, 1707, 1605 and 1498. All of these are estimated to have been 8+ magnitude earthquakes. The latest one occurred in 1854, which means that, as of 2006, there has been no big earthquake in this area for the past 152 years. Naturally, it is assumed that the tectonic plates have stored up enormous energy. Also, other records show that ground subsidence has been observed in this area. Judging from these data, scientists have concluded that a Tokai Earthquake could occur at any moment. It is feared that such an event will cause thousands of deaths and hundreds of billions of dollars in damages.
The Japanese government is taking the Tokai Earthquakes seriously and has charged the Japan Meteorological Agency with the job of predicting the next one. They have a dense array of instruments placed to accumulate a continuous stream of data related to seismicity, strain, crustal expansion, tilt, tidal variations, ground water fluctuations and other variables. They are watching for a anomaly in this data might precede the next major Tokai Earthquake.
In case of a big Tokai earthquake, it is expected that a tsunami more than 6m high will hit the coastal regions, and as has happened earlier, the quake may very well be accompanied by volcanic eruptions at Mt. Fuji. Futhermore the Hamaoka nuclear power plants are situated near the center of the expected focal region of the next great Tokai earthquake.
See also my Blog on Japanese Earthquake Warning System
No one (so far) can predict when it will hit or where or how strong it will be. But the experts are certain of one thing: it will hit.
One of the most dangerous earthquake areas on earth is the Island of Honshu, Japan. Here the Pacific, Okhotsk, Eurasian (or should I say Amurian?) and Philippine Plates converge to generate major earthquakes with an average recurrence interval of about 100 to 150 years. These major earthquakes are known as the "Tokai Earthquakes". Tokai is an area southwest of Tokyo at the coast around Suruga Bay. The four most recent Tokai Earthquakes occurred in 1854, 1707, 1605 and 1498. All of these are estimated to have been 8+ magnitude earthquakes. The latest one occurred in 1854, which means that, as of 2006, there has been no big earthquake in this area for the past 152 years. Naturally, it is assumed that the tectonic plates have stored up enormous energy. Also, other records show that ground subsidence has been observed in this area. Judging from these data, scientists have concluded that a Tokai Earthquake could occur at any moment. It is feared that such an event will cause thousands of deaths and hundreds of billions of dollars in damages.
The Japanese government is taking the Tokai Earthquakes seriously and has charged the Japan Meteorological Agency with the job of predicting the next one. They have a dense array of instruments placed to accumulate a continuous stream of data related to seismicity, strain, crustal expansion, tilt, tidal variations, ground water fluctuations and other variables. They are watching for a anomaly in this data might precede the next major Tokai Earthquake.
In case of a big Tokai earthquake, it is expected that a tsunami more than 6m high will hit the coastal regions, and as has happened earlier, the quake may very well be accompanied by volcanic eruptions at Mt. Fuji. Futhermore the Hamaoka nuclear power plants are situated near the center of the expected focal region of the next great Tokai earthquake.
-
http://geology.com/news/2006/11/tokai-earthquake-prediction-japan.html
-
http://geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm?terms=zone+plate
-
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake_tokai/
See also my Blog on Japanese Earthquake Warning System
WIDGETIZE
zencoder # 1. July 2009, 06:57
I've quoted you on my blog site. You have the best rundown on the Tokai quake I have read in the past 6 months. I'd like to know what you think the odds are that we will have a repeat of the tokai quake with this summer's total eclipse.
I've found 6 significant quakes in that region that occur with in a few hours or a few days of a solar eclipse over the past two decades.
url here:
http://www.garagegames.com/community/blog/view/15946/2
zencoder # 1. July 2009, 16:03
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jul2007/2007-07-16-04.asp
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2096238.ece
-------------------
(1) March 2007 Eclipse and Earthquake
Eclipse March 19th 2007 - Earthquake March 25th 2007
March 25, 2007 6.9 ML Noto Peninsula Earthquake 能登半島地震 Noto Hantō Jishin Ishikawa Prefecture about 11 kilometres (6.8 mi) due west of the southern end of the town of Wajima 11 At 9:42 a.m., a magnitude 6.9 earthquake, struck the Hokuriku region of Japan, near the Noto Peninsula. The earthquake shook the city of Nanao and the town of Anamizu with a seismic intensity of 6+ on Japan's shindo scale. One death, in the city of Wajima, and at least 214 injuries have been reported. A tsunami advisory was immediately made for the Kaga coast and Noto coast, and a 10-20cm wave hit shore about 30 minutes later.
-----
There is an 8 day window for another eclipse and quake in October 2004.
(2) October 2004 Eclipse and Earthquake
Eclipse October 14th 2007 - Earthquake October 23rd 2007
October 23, 2004 6.9 Mw 2004 Chūetsu earthquake 中越地震 Chūetsu Jishin Ojiya, Niigata 4040 occurred at 5:56 p.m.(local time) on Saturday, October 23, 2004. The initial earthquake caused noticeable shaking across almost half of Honshū, including parts of the Tohoku, Hokuriku, Chūbu, and Kantō regions.
----
(3) March 18th 1988 Total Eclipse and Quake Same Day.
There is a 6 hour window Between the March 18th 1988 Total Solar Eclipse and earthquake. The 6 hour window in UTC time reports the quake in March 17th, but it was really March 18th in local Japanese time.
MAR 17 20 34 29.2 35.633 N 139.619 E 103 5.4 1.1 325
NEAR SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. Mo=3.1*10**17 Nm
(HRV). Ten people injured in the Tokyo area. Slight
damage (IV JMA) at Chiba, Kawaguchi-ko, Kumagaya,
Tateyama and Utsunomiya. Felt (III JMA) in the
Onahama-Choshi-Ajiro-Kofu area and on Oshima and
Miyake-jima. Felt (I JMA) from Hikone to Miyako and
on Hachijo-jima.
-----------------
We have another total eclipse this summer July 22nd 2009. Do you think anything will happen? Hans Lehner has posted an Earthquake warning for China for the Solar eclipse. http://www.rqm.ch/earthquake_warnings_with_magnitu1.htm
nielsol # 3. July 2009, 08:08
I am out at sea right now, so I'll keep it short.
First, thank you for your remarks.
I read of course about the 2008 quake you mention.
I don't think the eclipse will have any influence.
Maybe more later, when I get home in a couple of weeks.
zencoder # 8. July 2009, 03:27
Remember, a solar eclipse is not just sunlight being blocked by the moon. Its the two celestial bodies that have the strongest gravitational pull on the earth in a straight line.
The solar tide is about 1/3rd the lunar tide. These tidal forces will be combined during an eclipse. I'm sure a few billion gallons of sea water must weigh something. What happens when this extra water weight passes over a subducted tectonic plate?
zencoder # 14. July 2009, 00:52
http://www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
http://www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/fulltext.pdf?page=1
By the way, Taiwan had a 6.3 magnitude earthquake today July 13th 2009.
nielsol # 14. July 2009, 16:10
http://my.opera.com/nielsol/blog/2009/07/14/solar-eclipses-and-earthquakes
Thank you for the interesting link to the paper on the topic of tidal forces related to earthquakes in Taiwan and China.
And of course thank you for all your (appreciated) comments.
zencoder # 16. July 2009, 04:41