Sea Surface Temperature and Hurricanes
Tuesday, 4. November 2008, 16:45:02
Is there a causal connection between warming tropical sea surface temperatures and Atlantic hurricane activity? This question has been asked several times over the last few years, especially after the record-breaking hurricane season of 2005. There seems to be a general consensus that sea surface temperatures play an important role - BUT...
Is it the local sea surface temperature in the Atlantic in isolation, or is it the sea surface temperature in the Atlantic 'relative' to the rest of the tropics, that drives variations in Atlantic hurricane activity?
If it is the relative sea surface temperature that matters, then the future is similar to the recent past, with periods of higher and lower hurricane activity relative to present-day conditions due to natural climate variability, but with little long-term trend. (All sea surface temperatures rises due to global warming).
If however the local sea surface temperature in the Atlantic in isolation causes increased hurricane activity it would (combined with rising sea levels) have dramatic implications for residents of regions impacted by Atlantic hurricanes - provided that global warming continues.
In a paper published in the journal Science Vecchi et al. discuss hurricane data observed over more than 50 years. Although differing interpretations of the observational record can imply vastly different futures for Atlantic hurricane activity due to global warming, they come to the conclusion, that so far the data can be interpreted both ways - either interpretation are statistically indistinguishable.
Whither Hurricane Activity? by Vecchi et al, Science 31 October 2008, Vol. 322. no. 5902, pp. 687 - 689 - DOI: 10.1126/science.1164396
• http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Contrasting_Hurricane_Theories_Heat_Up_999.html
• http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/322/5902/687
Is it the local sea surface temperature in the Atlantic in isolation, or is it the sea surface temperature in the Atlantic 'relative' to the rest of the tropics, that drives variations in Atlantic hurricane activity?
If it is the relative sea surface temperature that matters, then the future is similar to the recent past, with periods of higher and lower hurricane activity relative to present-day conditions due to natural climate variability, but with little long-term trend. (All sea surface temperatures rises due to global warming).
If however the local sea surface temperature in the Atlantic in isolation causes increased hurricane activity it would (combined with rising sea levels) have dramatic implications for residents of regions impacted by Atlantic hurricanes - provided that global warming continues.
In a paper published in the journal Science Vecchi et al. discuss hurricane data observed over more than 50 years. Although differing interpretations of the observational record can imply vastly different futures for Atlantic hurricane activity due to global warming, they come to the conclusion, that so far the data can be interpreted both ways - either interpretation are statistically indistinguishable.
Whither Hurricane Activity? by Vecchi et al, Science 31 October 2008, Vol. 322. no. 5902, pp. 687 - 689 - DOI: 10.1126/science.1164396
• http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Contrasting_Hurricane_Theories_Heat_Up_999.html
• http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/322/5902/687
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