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Posts tagged with "Geopolitics"

Hans Island to be split between Canada and Greenland?

Ownership of the Arctic Sea region has long been a subject of dispute between Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the US, not least with an eye to oil and gas resources, but also of course for strategic reasons. One of the smaller territorial disputes may now be close to a conclusion - if one is to believe newspaper rumours.



Hans Island (Inuktitut/Greenlandic: Tartupaluk; French: Île Hans; Danish: Hans Ø) is a small, uninhabited barren knoll measuring 1.3 km2, 1,290 m long and 1,199 m wide, located in the centre of the Kennedy Channel of Nares Strait—a strait that separates Ellesmere Island, Canada, from northern Greenland. Sovereignty over this small island is claimed by as well Denmark as Canada - claims that got more momento, as climate change in the Arctic opened more of the region to resource exploitation and marine traffic.

It is said that according to a draft settlement a boundary would be drawn running north to south, connecting the existing maritime boundaries on either side of the island, splitting the island equally between Canada and Greenland, which sounds like a true solomonic judgement.

Neither governments have confirmed any deal.

In a separate commentary in the Post, Jonathan Kay said the reported deal "raises the intriguing possibility that Canada would end up sharing a common border with the European Community, just as Russia does”. Jonathan Kay is apparently ignorant of the facts that Greenland is NOT a member of the EU, and that the EU for far more than a decade is correctly termed the European Union, but you cannot always expect journalists to be correct, can you? (Yes, Denmark is a member of the EU, but the autonomous Greenland isn't - Greenland originally joined the then-European Communities with Denmark in 1973. However, it left following a Greenlandic referendum in 1985).



In Danish:


Update:
Danish government confirms "constructive dialogue"



Academics

Mali, Azawad, Taoudenni, and oil

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The Taoudenni Basin covers large parts of the West African craton in Mauritania and Mali. It is of considerable interest due to its possible reserves of oil. The remote location and hostile environment of the Sahara desert would make extraction expensive, but ….



On 6 April 2012 the Tuaregs declared "irrevocably" the independence of Azawad from Mali. The National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) made the statement on its website, adding that it would respect other states' borders.

As far as I can make out the area proclaimed independent covers roughly speaking the northern part of Mali that I have marked on the map of Mali.

Compared with a map of the areas where significant numbers of Tuareg live I find it “interesting” to notice that the Mali part of the Taoudenni Basin seems to be part of the new “state” of Azawad. My guess is that troubles in this area, also suffering from drought and distressed by several thousands of refugees isn’t over yet.

The place of Taoudenni itself, by the way, is a remote salt mining center in the desert region of northern Mali, 664 km north of Timbuktu. The salt is dug by hand from the bed of an ancient salt lake, cut into slabs and transported either by truck or by camel to Timbuktu. The camel caravans from Taoudenni are some of the last that still operate in the Sahara.





In Danish:
http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Udland/2012/04/06/080349.htm



Academics

Splitting Sudan and Oil

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By now it is as good as certain that Southern Sudan will hold a referendum on whether or not it should remain as a part of Sudan on 9 January 2011 (the census has so far been delayed three times). The conflicts and situation in Sudan has been and is very complex. Here I shall restrict myself to a few words (with maps that hopefully speak for themselves) on the oil, as oil inevitably is one of the issues, an issue involving a risk of prolonging the “troubles”.

First a map showing the areas where referenda and “popular consultations” are to be held.



Next a map where I have tried to put it all together, and tried to show the approximate location of the oil fields.



I have also included a map from Wikipedia of Sudanese oil concessions, stressing that a concession does not necessarily mean oil production.



The most important oil fields are obviously situated in the border area, especially the Abyei region, between North and South Sudan, making it a sensitive issue in the relationship between the two areas. A separate referendum scheduled for the same date is to decide whether the particular oil-rich Abyei region joins the north or south.

An oil pipeline already exist from Abyei via Khartoum to the Red Sea. A new oil pipeline is planned from the same area via Kenya to the Indian Ocean - at Luma.

China has been extremely interested in the Sudanese oil. New interesting oil fields have however been discovered in Congo and Uganda. The new pipeline from South Sudan would end in Kenya in a new port in Lamu at the Indidian Ocean, and oil from Uganda and Congo is also planned to be piped to Lamu. These facts might have eased the pressure from China.

Abyei is situated within the Muglad Basin, a large rift basin which contains a number of gas and oil accumulations. The Muglad basin is the largest of the interior cratonic basins of the Sudan. It is part of a trend of Cretaceous sedimentary basins of apparent rift origin in Central Africa. Oil exploration was undertaken in Sudan in the 1970s and 1980s. A period of significant investment in Sudan’s oil industry occurred in the 1990s and Abyei became a target for this investment. By 2003 Abyei contributed more than one quarter of Sudan’s total crude oil output. Production volumes have since declined and reports suggest that Abyei’s reserves are nearing depletion.

The following map is copied from Abdelhakam & Ali Sayed: Stratigraphy and tectonic Evolution of the opil producing Horizons of Muglad Basin, Sudan:



CASZ = Central African Shear Zone
WCARS = West and Central African Rift System


Publications:
Moffat: Petroleum Systems in an Intracratonic Basin Setting, South-central Sudan.
Abdelhakam & Ali Sayed: Stratigraphy and tectonic Evolution of the oil producing Horizons of Muglad Basin, Sudan



PS of 17 November 2010:
"a southern secession would entail the potential loss of 80 percent of Sudan’s oil reserves, 50 percent of oil revenues, and a third of its population" according to http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/2010/09/sudan-–-southern-secession-oil-and-debt-relief.php



Academics

Foreign Links, Foreign Policy and Glacial Melt

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As other bloggers I am, of course, happy when other bloggers link to me, so hereby my excuses for linking too little and too seldom to other blogs. The blogs I read - or skim - are usually within the geoblogosphere and practically nowhere else (with a few exceptions like this one). Writing about earth sciences I do of course regularly mention that geology has political implications (reason enough for politicians to care more about geology).

Well, back to the links. Yesterday I happened to discover that the Arctic Blog had been kind enough to link to my post on the third pole melting. The Arctic Blog focuses on political, military, and environmental current events in the Arctic region. The Himalayan and Tibetan glaciers are of course far the North Pole area, but they do have problems with melting glaciers in common.

The Arctic
On 28 April 2009 Al Gore together with the Norwegian Foreign Minister co-chaired an international conference on global warming called “Melting Ice: Regional Dramas, Global Wake-Up Call”. Several foreign ministers of Arctic nations attended, along with scientists from regions like the Himalayas and the Andes, where the high-altitude ice is also melting. The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are often called the “Third Pole” due to the area’s massive ice coverage, which is the third-largest in the world outside the Arctic and Antarctic. Anywhere from 3,000 to 45,000 glaciers glide through the mountains, and two billion people depend on their runoff for water.


The Tibetan Plateau
And this brings me to another “Third Pole” link from the same Arctic Blog post to Chinadialogue, with an extremely interesting article on the uncertain future on the Tibetan Plateau. Katherine Morton explains how glacial melt poses critical risks to biodiversity, people and livelihoods on the Tibetan Plateau, and further explores the possibilities for an effective regional response. On the Tibetan plateau climate impacts pose significant security risks for China and the Asia region. The ability to adapt is of critical importance to the future sustainability of the ecosystems as well as the millions of people they serve.

The Tibetan Plateau is the largest high altitude landmass on earth, covering an area of approximately 1.6 million km2, equal to one-quarter of China’s land mass. As a direct consequence of global warming the glaciers that feed Asia’s great rivers – the Yellow, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween, Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra – have retreated by 196 km2 in the last 40 years. Apart from dramatic adverse effects on biodiversity, people and livelihoods with long-term implications for water, food and energy security. glacial melt can also trigger a higher incidence of natural disasters – landslides, flooding and glacial lake outbursts.

Please let me cordially invite you to read these two (more political) articles (on glacial melt on a regional and global scale).

http://arctic.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/04/29/meetings-on-global-warming-arctic-in-tromso-part-12/
http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/2961-An-uncertain-future-on-the-Plateau



Somalia - Continued

This is a continuation of my posts here and here.
(After this I'll return to my more usual themes)


1. Here are the main results of the recent donor conference for Somalia held in Brussels:
* International donors raised 165 million euros to help bolster Somalia's security forces and back an African peacekeeping force
* The European Commission contributed almost half (72 million euros)
* Sixty million euros will go to the AMISOM African peacekeeping mission, which numbers around 4300 troops, short of its 8000 troop target
* Twelve million euros will go to help build up the police force (including coast guard)

2. As a positive note I gather some of the money will create jobs in Somalia, but wonder about the rest, seen that the present Somali government hardly rules over more than most of the capital, Mogadishu, and that the radical Islamist al-Shabab group, which has links to al-Qaeda, operates freely in much of the capital, Mogadishu, and most of south and central areas of the country (while the northern Somaliland and Puntland act more or less as independent states). I am also worried because Somalia's transitional federal parliament has unanimously backed the introduction of Islamic Sharia law in the country after a vote over the issue was brought to parliamentarians last Saturday. The Islamist opposition leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, who has just returned to the country after exile in Eritrea, has blankly called for African Union troops to leave Somalia before he talks to the government. Somalia does indeed look like a failed state beyond help.

3. Here are a few things said at the conference: Piracy is a symptom of anarchy and insecurity on the ground. More security on the ground will make less piracy on the seas. The cause of piracy is the poverty, the fact that the young fishermen have no perspective. The piracy attacks are a symptom of the lack of security. The restoration of peace and stability to Somalia is the only way to solve these problems. I agree to all of that, but ...

4. A future donors' conference is planned to raise funding for continued humanitarian and reconstruction assistance to Somalia.

5. Seen the situation it is impossible to get exact figures. A current estimate (for Somalia as a whole) is 9 million inhabitants of which 3.5 millions depend on food aid to survive. More than one million people have been made homeless by fighting in the past two years.

6. I don’t think that the present situation is Inch'Allah - let us instead pray for common sense, peace, and stability.

http://www.radioalgoa.com/newsarticle.asp?NewsID=147140
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8014212.stm
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jdZmEqPLeCk_Ib-BS13v4Cpl_B9QD97O5TQO0
http://geography.howstuffworks.com/africa/geography-of-somalia.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8014902.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8016985.stm
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/04/18/somalia.sharia/index.html?iref=24hours
http://www.radionetherlands.nl/currentaffairs/region/europe/090424-somalia-donors-EU



Somalia is Burning - and We Have no Water

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Climate, Wars, Economics, and Pirates

First let us get things straight. Human beings lived in Africa long before Europe was populated. In other words the history of Africa didn’t start with the European colonisation of Africa. Neither is culture a European monopoly.

From the 25th century BC and onwards the Egyptians sent expeditions to the land of Punt, which is supposed to have been the Horn of Africa. If so a lot of things have changed since then, as the Land of Punt was known for producing and exporting gold, aromatic resins, African blackwood, ebony, ivory, slaves and wild animals.

Somalia became independent in 1960. It has been tormented by crude civil war most of the time since 1986. UN humanitarian troops landed in 1993 and started a two-year effort (primarily in the south) to alleviate famine conditions. The period of 1998–2006 saw the declaration of a number of self-declared autonomous states within Somalia. In January 2009, Ethiopian troops withdrew from Somalia following a two year insurgency. In short their is practical no law and order and the central Somalian government has little to say.

Today 85% of the population are Somalis, a population that CIA estimates at nearly 10 million people (another source says 4 million in 1979). The Somalis began populating the area around 1000 years ago. About 70 percent of all Somalis are nomads who travel with their herds through Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Today more than 3 million Somalis are dependant on food aid and 1.3 million are fugitives.

Only 1.64% of Somalia’s 637 657 km2 is arable land with permanent crops on 0.04% of Somalia. Most of the country receives less than 500 millimeters of rain annually, and a large area encompassing the northeast and much of northern Somalia receives as little as 50 to 150 millimeters. One of the country’s biggest problem is the heavy loss of livestock suffered by the pastoralist communities in the worst drought in 30 years.

Somali has a 3,025 km long coastline. In 2005 ca. 700 foreign fishing trawlers were illegally active in Somalian waters. For years other countries have dumped nuclear and toxic waste off the coast of Somalia. After the tsunami in 2005 some of this waste washed ashore with disastrous results for the coastal population like skin diseases and mouth bleedings.

So what can you do in Somalia for a living. Crops gone, livestock gone, fish gone, and no social security. One solution is taking aid helpers as hostages to get ransom money. It has been done lately. There is however bigger money in piracy. And the pirates are local heroes. They are the revengers of those foreigners that destroyed the fishing industry and they provide money.

Eyl in Puntland is the location of most of Somalia's casualties from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. It has about 3 million inhabitants and has become something like the capital of the Somalian pirates. As the so-called pirate capital it is where the high seas hijackers often steer their captured vessels. Special restaurants in the town cater for the captive crews. With their expensive tastes in fancy houses, cars and women, the pirates have brought boom times to the local economy. The Puntland government has acknowledged that they are relatively powerless to stop pirate activities.

To recapitulate: Somalia is one of the poorest, most violent, least stable countries anywhere on Earth. It suffers from severe drought and its people face hunger and violence on a daily basis.

How can you stop the piracy. Much is said these days about warships and other military or paramilitary actions. No doubt such things are necessary. But without improving the humanitarian situation for all Somalis, the problem will not be solved. This is an extremely difficult task for the international community.

I wonder if the international conference held these days in Brussels, and sponsored by the United Nations and the European Union, that aims to raise at least euro128 million ($166 million) in donations for Somalia's nascent security forces and for the African Union peacekeeping contingent there, leads to any decisive results.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1892376,00.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-somalia-pirates15-2009apr15,0,165660.story

See also my post: http://my.opera.com/nielsol/blog/2009/04/20/floods-in-somaliland



Arctic Ocean - resources, claims, and talks

Denmark has convened foreign affairs ministers from the other four coastal Arctic nations — Canada, Russia, Norway and the United States — to discuss each other's claims to the (oil-rich) Arctic Ocean under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The meeting is to be held at Ilulissat, Greenland, from 27 to 29 May 2008. Ilulissat means "the icebergs". The Ilulissat meeting has the potential to be of substantial importance for the future governance of the entire Arctic region.

The Arctic seabed is thought to hold 25 percent of the world's undiscovered oil and gas. The rivalry, and tensions over Arctic resources, has heated up as melting polar ice makes the region more accessible with scientists saying the Northwest Passage could open up to year-round shipping by 2050. Global warming presents "new challenges" for the protection of the fragile Arctic environment.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/north/story/2008/05/14/arctic-meeting.html
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Denmark_calls_for_law_to_prevail_on_Arctic_disputes_999.html
http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hS-FAOz1F6OfKGGBUdi1At63iYNw
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/080522/usa/arctic_environment_meet_denmark_us




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