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Great Pacific Tsunami Threat

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Research suggests that future tsunamis could reach a scale far beyond that suffered in the tsunami generated by the great 1964 Alaskan earthquake. The 1964 Alaskan earthquake – the second biggest recorded in history with a magnitude of 9.2 – triggered a series of massive waves with run up heights of as much as 12.7 metres in the Alaskan Gulf region and 52 metres in the Shoup Bay submarine slide in Valdez Arm.

(See also my post on Largest Earthquake Ever Recorded - with a magnitude of 9.5)

The study published in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews shows that the potential impact in terms of tsunami generation, could be significantly greater if both the 800-km-long 1964 segment and the 250-km-long adjacent Yakataga segment to the east were to rupture simultaneously. The data indicate that two major earthquakes have struck Alaska in the last 1,500 years, and according to the findings a bigger earthquake and a more destructive tsunami than the 1964 event are possible in the future.

The two mentioned earthquakes ca. 900 and ca. 1500 years ago simultaneously ruptured adjacent segments of the Aleutian megathrust and the Yakutat microplate, with a combined area ca. 15% greater than 1964, giving an earthquake of greater magnitude and increased tsunamitriggering potential.

Reference:
Shennan et al.
Multi-segment earthquakes and tsunami potential of the Aleutian megathrust
Quaternary Science Reviews: Volume 28, Issues 1-2, January 2009, Pages 7-13
doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.09.016

http://www.dur.ac.uk/news/newsitem/?itemno=8306
http://www.unews.utah.edu/p/?r=071709-1
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1723347/pacific_tsunami_threat_greater_than_expected/index.html?source=r_science
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090720083421.htm
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-07/du-ptt072009.php
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/07/tsunami/

In Danish:
http://politiken.dk/videnskab/article755056.ece
http://ing.dk/artikel/100164-forskere-har-undervurderet-tsunami-risiko-for-usa?utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=nyheder



AcademicsTop Blogs

Tsunamis and Asteroids

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Tsunamis are NEWS, asteroid impacts are NEWS. Mix the two and you get GREAT NEWS. Let them hit New York and you have everybody listening!

There may be clues - but where is the smoking gun? You guessed it? Yes, the researchers are still looking for a crater.

A group of scientists from the Harvard University led by Katherine Cagen claims that a massive tsunami wave swept over the coastal regions of New York some 2,300 years ago, and even more, that the catastrophe most likely was caused by an ancient asteroid crashing somewhere in New Jersey's continental shelf. Sceptics are not convinced, though.

What are the clues?

1. The scientists found carbon spherules (perfectly round particles that form in the extreme pressures of an impact).
2. The scientists found grains of several shocked minerals, of the sort that only are found in impact ejecta or in meteorites.
3. The scientists have taken samples of suspicious-looking sediments along the coasts of New Jersey and Long Island that might have been washed up in a tsunami (or were they left by a strong storm - it is difficult to tell).

"We're making the pretty outrageous claim that not only did a tsunami hit the New York metropolitan area 2,300 years ago, but it was caused by an asteroid impact for which we can't find a crater"


Katherine Cagen is reported to have said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27827830/
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/11/20/asteroid-tsunami.html (with video clip)
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Ancient-Asteroid-Provoked-New-York-Tsunami-98366.shtml

Indeed, she has a good story - if she can prove it by hard evidence.

Supposed evidence for a 2300-year-old tsunami deposit from Long Island, New York, were by the way presented at the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union in 2006. See abstract here.



The Storegga Submarine Landslide - and Tsunami

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Landslides come in many sizes. Submarine landslides can be really huge - in fact I would say unbelievable huge. The most colossal event of its kind ever discovered (as far as I know) happened 60,000 years ago. The slide occurred off the African coast when sand and mud rushed some 1,500 kilometres down a slightly sloped seafloor, with an initial burst of speed estimated at 70 km/h.

The Storegga Slide was also one of the bigger - or should I say Storegga slides, because sometimes it is seen as a series of slides. The Storegga Slides are considered to be amongst the largest known landslides. They occurred under water, at the edge of Norway's continental shelf (Storegga is Old Norse for the "Great Edge"), in the Norwegian Sea, 100 km north-west of the Møre coast. An area the size of Iceland slid into the Norwegian Sea. This collapse involved an estimated 290 km length of coastal shelf, with a total volume of 3,500 km3 of debris (Haflidason et al. (2004) estimated that the minimum volume of sediments displaced was 2400 km3 and the maximum was 3200 km3). The (largest) incident occurred around 6100 BC, that is around 8000 years ago. The mass slid around 800 kilometres into the deep sea, and its back edge is around 300 kilometres long.

Some authors associate the failure of the Storegga Slide with excess pore pressures caused by gas-hydrate dissociation due to sea-level/water-temperature change, other authors consider that the Storegga Slide may have been triggered by offshore earthquakes.

The Storegga submarine landslide occurred indeed (supposedly?) from an area rich in gas hydrates and at about the same time as a large increase in atmospheric methane concentrations recorded in a Greenland ice core. This increase has been hypothesized to reflect methane releases from the Storegga slide debris for several hundred years following the slide. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, and methane release from the Storegga submarine landslide may have contributed to the rapid termination of the brief but intense cold event about 8200 years ago and the subsequent evolution of Holocene climate (The Holocene is a geological epoch, which began approximately 10,000 years ago). See: Methane gas release from the Storegga submarine landslide linked to early Holocene climate change: a speculative hypothesis.

The slide speed and the displaced volume were such that they produced a megatsunami. Its consequences are noticeable in Scotland and along the coasts of Iceland, Norway, the Faroe Islands and Shetland. There is evidence that the tsunami reached a height of 25 metres in Shetland. This gigantic tsunami is known as the Storegga Tsunami.

* http://www4.hydro.com/ormenlange/en/about_ormen/key_features/storegga_slide/index.html
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide
* http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/s0456225/Storegga.html
* http://www.naturalsciences.be/active/sciencenews/archive2005/tsunami
* http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071121145010.htm

“Record-breaking Height for 8000-Year-Old Tsunami in the North Atlantic” by Bondevik et al.
Eos,Vol. 84, No. 31, 5 August 2003, pp 289–300






Largest Earthquake Ever Recorded

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The greatest earthquakes occur in subduction zones, where one tectonic plate is sliding beneath another. Virtually all of the big earthquakes, the ones of magnitude eight or nine or above, happen at sea. The largest earthquake ever recorded is no exception to this rule.

The epicentre of the Great Chilean Earthquake of 22 May 1960 was about 160 km off the coast of Chile in the Peru-Chile Trench (39.5° S, 74.5° W) with a focal depth of 33 km. Two days later, on 24 May 1960, Cordón Caulle, a fissure vents system located in the Chilean Lake District, erupted, sending ash and steam as high as 6 km.

At the Peru-Chile trench the Nazca Plate is subducted beneath the South American Plate. In the area hit by the earthquake the dip of the subduction zone is about 30° and the subduction gives rise to an arc of still active volcanoes.

Buildings fell all along the Chilean coast from Conception to the southern end of Isla Chilor. The towns of Valdivia and Puerto Montt were devastated. (The earthquake is also known as the 1960 Valdivia earthquake / Gran terremoto de Valdivia).

The earthquake set off huge landslides and sent rocks and boulders tumbling down the mountain sides. The land around the city of Puerto Montt sank and coastal areas were flooded. Rivers had their courses changed and landslides created new lakes. Many of the landslides occurred in the Chilean Lake District from Lago Villarica to Lago Todos los Santos.

The earthquake set off huge tsunamis which radiated out from the epicentre, travelling at speed of up to 350 km/h, the Chilean coast was devastated by a 25 (or was it 12 ?) m high tsunami which arrived 10 to 15 minutes after the quake. Remains of houses were carried inland as much as 3 km. There was also severe damage in the Philippines, Hawaii and the japan.

Over 2000 people died and 3000 were injured. 2 million people became homeless. There were not extremely large numbers of victims, for such an earthquake, because the population was alerted on that something was going to happen by previous shakes and underground noise.

Map of some of the places mentioned and the most important volcanoes in the district. In 2005 we made our way from Puerto Montt to San Carlos de Barriloche in Argentina through the Chilean Lake District (bus, boat, bus, boat, bus) - as many tourists do. Under way I photographed the following volcanoes: Osorno (famous for its Fujiyama look), Puntiagudo ("Volcán Puntiagudo" (Spanish for "Sharp-pointed Volcano") is a stratovolcano with a prominent 2,493 m high sharp-pointed summit that results from glacial dissection and gets its name from this feature), and Tronador. See the 3 photos below.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/events/1960_05_22.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chilean_Earthquake
http://www.gochile.cl/html/ChileValdivia/Chile-Valdivia-Terremoto.asp
http://www.geophys.washington.edu/tsunami/general/historic/chilean60.html
http://www.usgs.gov/faq/list_faq_by_category/get_answer.asp?id=154





Notes:
The volcano Puyehue is often cited as the volcano that erupted on 24 May, but actually it was the nearby fissure volcano Cordón Caulle. Although Cordón Caulle is sometimes listed as part of Puyehue volcano, it is tectonically and magmatically distinct from Puyehue. No historical eruptions are known from Puyehue, and eruptions in 1921-22 and 1960 listed in some sources actually occurred at Cordón Caulle volcano located to the Northwest.

As far as I know the epicentre of the main quake was at 39.5° S, 74.5° W - some maps however show it inland (including the USGS map). Well of course there were more than one shock, but even then?

Can earthquakes trigger volcanic eruptions? The volcanic eruption 2 days after the 1960 Chilean earthquake has been taken as evidence, but that could still be a coincidence, and the question is still debated. That volcanoes, on the other hand, can cause earthquakes, is well known.

What I wanted to stress here is the role of subduction zones for important natural hazards like earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and landslides.



Great Lisbon Earthquake 1755

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I am back home from a week in Lisbon, where I was several times reminded of the Great Lisbon Earthquake.

On 1 November 1755 Lisbon was shaken by a violent earthquake. It occurred at 9:40 in the morning during High Mass - a mass to celebrate All Saints' Day, also known as All Hallows or Hallowmas, an important religious holiday in this strong Roman catholic country.

Geologists today estimate the Lisbon earthquake approached magnitude 9 on the Richter scale, with an epicentre in the Atlantic Ocean about 200 km west-south-west of Cape St. Vincent (See map). Estimates place the death toll between 60,000 to 100,000 people, making it one of the most destructive earthquakes in history.

More than 20 churches collapsed, and due to the candles lit for the celebration fire quickly broke out, and flames raged for five days. Gigantic fissures up to five metres wide appeared in the city centre. Survivors rushed to the open space of the docks for safety and watched as the water receded revealing the sea floor. Approximately forty minutes after the earthquake, an enormous tsunami engulfed the harbour and downtown, rushing up the Tagus river. It was followed by two more waves.

Many people at the time saw the disaster a God’s punishment - because the town was too rich, because of the inquisition (the Spanish Inquisition was established in 1478), because of idolatry or other sins? Apart from theological, philosophical (including work by Voltaire), and literary discussions, however, scientists got involved. It was the first earthquake studied scientifically for its effects over a large area, and it led to the birth of modern seismology.

I stayed at a hotel a few hundred metres from the Santa Justa Lift (also known as the Carmo Lift). The Santa Justa Lift was designed by an apprentice of Gustave Eiffel (the one with the Eiffel Tower). The iron lift is 45 metres tall and it brought me from the downtown streets to the uphill Carmo Square. From the roof of the lift construction (with a bar, where I had an espresso) there is a nice view over downtown Lisbon and the Carmo Convent. This mediaeval convent was ruined in the Earthquake, and the ruins of its Gothic church are the main trace of the great earthquake still visible in the city. The ruins were preserved to remind Lisboners of the destruction.

I went down to the docks and took the train to see one of the most impressive monuments in Lisbon, the Jeronimos Monastery. The vaulting in the church withstood the earthquake of 1755, which probably says something about the architecture. In the same district - called Belém, which is in fact Portuguese for Bethlehem, and pronounced more or less as “blem” - there is an old tower, the Torre de Belém. The tower was built in the same style as the Monastery between 1515 and 1519 in the middle of the river Tagus to defend Lisbon and the monastery. Today, however it stands on the water’s edge practically moored to the north bank, the river having altered course during (and after) the earthquake and tsunami of 1755.

From there the train moves on to the romantic fishing port - and holiday resort with yacht harbour - of Cascaias, about half an hour’s ride from Lisbon (30 kilometres west of Lisbon). A large portion of the village was destroyed during the earthquake in 1755. But today it is bustling, and I had a nice evening meal at the beach with cockles and local wine.



PS of 17 April 2008
The position of the epicentre is disputed (See comments). The source mechanism seems to require generation at a subduction zone, but where would that be?

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