Puncak Minyak Malaysia

Had fun playing with the atlas in the earlier post? Take the number given with a pinch of salt as it is highly optimistic. Statistics show Malaysia’s oil production has already peaked. From over 800,000 barrels per day, we are producing less than 700,000 a day now. Check out the Country Analysis Brief from EIA at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Malaysia/Full.html More charts are available on this site e.g. you can see monthly oil and gas production of all countries

With oil prices rising from a low of US$11 per barrel to over US$80 per barrel now, how long do you think the Malaysian government can continue to subsidize oil price to a population that is continuously increasing consumption? Remember when a litre of petrol used to cost RM1.10. Now, at RM 1.92 per litre it’s an increase of 75% in 7 years. Look for another price increase next year.

http://www.pastpeak.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_petroleum

Patrick Barta and Jane Spencer, The Wall Street Journal via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Investors are pouring billions of dollars into "renewable" energy sources such as ethanol, biodiesel and solar power that promise to reduce the world's reliance on petroleum. But exploiting these alternatives may produce unintended environmental and economic consequences -- fallout that could offset many of the expected benefits.

Here on the island of Borneo, a thick haze often encloses this city of 500,000 people. The cause: forest fires that have blazed across the island, some of which were set to clear land to produce palm oil -- a key ingredient in biodiesel, a clean-burning diesel fuel alternative.

Such side-effects aren't an isolated problem. In Indonesia and Malaysia, forests are being slashed for new energy-yielding crops or other unconventional fuels.

Read the full article at http://www.energybulletin.net/23506.html

The picture above starkly potrays the difference energy can make to the fate of nations. North Korea is surrounded by neighbours who are among the biggest energy users in the world. North
Korea has no oil & gas reserves and the little coal it has is reserved for heating rather than for power generation.

Perhaps, it is unlikely for Malaysia to suffer North Korea's fate as we have substantial reserves of oil & gas but not so fast. The cold facts of exponential growth places a limit to the continued exploitation of a finite resource.

Peninsular Malaysia will become a net importer of Natural Gas soon and will then be forced to import coal in massive quantities to reduce our dependance. Must we wait till our lights go out before we act?

This might be almost a year old but is still very relevant. Last Ocotber, the Petroleum Review had two articles on the decline of oil production. It goes on to state that "Over the next few years a number of countries are likely to move into decline – Denmark, China, Malaysia, Mexico, Brunei and India are the obvious candidates and account for over 12% of global production..."

Read the complete news with supporting graphs at
http://www.pastpeak.com/archives/2005/10/two_shocking_re.htm

(Thanks Jonathan)

The retired Professor of Physics from the University of Colorado in Boulder, Dr. Albert Bartlett, examines the arithmetic of steady growth, continued over modest periods of time, in a finite environment. These concepts are applied to populations and to fossil fuels such as petroleum and coal. It is an excellent video primer on Peak Oil and the work of M. King Hubbert. RealPlayer required.
RealPlayer: http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RAM/2005/08/AlbertBartlett.ram
MP3: http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RM/2005/08/Bartlett.mp3

It must be emphasised that Peak Oil is a liquid fuels problem first and foremost. Malaysia no longer uses oil for any significant generation of electricity.

However, this statement hides the fact that our reserves of Natural Gas will not last as long as we thought. Simple arithmetic will tell you that if we continue to use our NG at present rates of growth (~5%), it will be gone in less than 25 years. Using up this precious resource for transport is the worst thing we could possibly do when we keep in mind that more than 70% of Malaysia's power production comes from NG.

I've looked at some very basic wind charts and unfortunately the winds around M'sia are just too slow. Maybe some areas will prove feasible but generally wind is not a player.

Of course, we have a lot of sun and thus, M'sia should focus on harnessing solar power. We don't have as much sun as a desert due to our cloud cover but we still have much more sun than Europe.

I am very skeptical of biodiesel not because I doubt it's potential to deliver fuel but rather the prospect of an unhealthy competition between our greed for fuel versus our need for food. Not forgetting the inevitable destruction of whole ecologies. We must limit reliance on this option as far as possible.

West M'sia has almost exhausted it's ability to produce more hydroelectricity. The only major growth area is is East M'sia but of course EM has no need for all that power. We either set up whole industries over there or channel all that power to WM. Either one is an expensive option. Like biodiesel, hydro causes great ecological damage. Pros: no fuel is required, nuff said.

I used to think that nuclear could solve M'sia Looming Energy Crisis but I'm not so sure now. This option if pursued will only encourage us to continue wasting energy and divert resources from better alternatives. The technical and financial risks are great even when compared to the rewards. On the other hand, Iran's determination to develop it's nuclear power generation despite being a major supplier of oil & natural gas is a sign of nuclear's viability.

It seems that we have no choice but to expand our use of coal if we wish to secure our energy security. It is good to know that our government appreciates this fact by building a number of massive coal-fired powerplants across the country.

Uranium reserves.mht
World Uranium Reserves - Nuclear Engineer.mht
World Nuclear Reactor Consumption

NSTP - The net reason (oil).pdf
The net reason
Speaking over national television, Datuk Seri Najib Razak said that if the current consumption rate of fuel were allowed to go unchecked, Malaysia would become a net importer of oil by 2010.
The chairman of the Cabinet Committee on Fuel Prices said Malaysia was at present a small net exporter.
"The figure is only about 75,000 barrels a day. Our production is stagnant at 650,000 barrels a day. But our consumption is going up. So the gap is narrowing.....

The "real" reason
Our oil production is not stagnant, it's declining. This act of sugar-coating the truth denies the ability of the populous to correctly gauge a threat by allowing them a sense of unfounded safety. Soon we will see the kerbau(@ reindeer) in the headlight; but only when it's too late.

What was the war about anyway?
bbc_war4oil.rm