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The Resourceful Bear Blog

Posts tagged with "CRB"

Which Way For Gold And The US Dollar?

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Article Update
In retrospect it was awareness of the impact of FASB 141, and awareness of AIG's difficulties, as well as those at Washington Mutual, that turned the market in favor of gold.

The US Dollar Turned Down Today, Friday September 12, 2008 To Close At 79
Stockcharts.com reports that the US Dollar, $USD, closed yesterday at 80.22; today it closed at 78.98 ... $USD

Gold Turned Up To Close At 766 Today, Friday September 12, 2008
Gold, $GOLD, it closed at $766. Chart is courtesy of Ted Burge ... $GOLD

The gold ETF, GLD, closed at 75.55; chart is courtesy of Ted Burge ... GLD

The Privateer provides the 2x3 chart for gold showing support at $750.

The ongoing Yahoo Finance chart of the 200% inverse of the emerging markets, EEV, compared to DRR, FXP, DEE, GLD and EFA reflects that the Euro, FXE, has temporarily found support; gold and the world markets rose ... GLD and EFA are up while FXP, DEE, DRR, and EEV, are down ... FXE has found support ... DRR shows a parabolic turn lower

The Yahoo Finance five day ongoing chart of of UUP and DRR compared to GLD shows that GLD rose and DRR and UUP fell ... GLD is up and DRR and UUP are down

The Yahoo Finance five day ongoing chart of USD/EUR relative to GLD reflects that the US Dollar fell and gold rose.

The Yahoo Finance five day ongoing chart of EUR/USD relative to GLD, XME and EFA reflects that the Euro, FXE, rose taking gold, the metal manufacturing shares and world stocks higher,

The Yahoo Finance five day ongoing chart of the USD/JPY relative to the EUR/JPY reflects that the rise in the EUR/JPY pulled gold higher and the US Dollar lower.

The Yen Fell Lower Today
CMS Forex in ActionForex article Yen Gives Up Yesterday's Gains as New Deal for Lehman Boosts Risk Appetite reports that the Yen, FXY, fell.

Forex Analysts Report An Uptick In The US Dollar ... And Some Give Bearish Prospects The US Dollar
ActionForex in article Is Market Turning Around? shows the EUR/USD ticked up to trade at 1.4093.

ActionForex in article Dollar Retreats Further on Poor Retail Sales reports that the GBP/USD rose to trade at 1.7768.

Candice Zachariahs of Bloomberg in aticle Australian, N.Z. Dollars Gain as Investors Boost Carry Trades provides a bullish report: "The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose as Asian equities rallied, increasing investors' appetite for higher-yielding assets ... "We've got quite a strong rebound under way", said Tony Morriss, a currency strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney. Australian government bonds fell. The yield on the 10-year note rose 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 5.68 percent".

ActionForex in article USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook shows the USD/JPY trading at a level of support at 107.06.

Crown Forex in ActionForex article Majors Extend Gains against Greenback reports in bearish tone that "the worst than expected retail sales didn't do the U.S. dollar any good".

Global Forex Trading in ActionForex article Dollar Rally Done For Now? reports that the Chinese may diversify away from dollar assets according to China Daily; and that strong Strong AUD employment data may keep RBA stationary in October; and that Fed's Kohn sees no housing bottom yet; and that CB Trichet is unabashedly hawkish stating that inflationary pressures remain enormous and that the ECB will need to guarantee price stability.

TheLFB-Forex in ActionForex bearish toned article Midnight For The US Dollar reports that the dollar fell on increased speculation of a Fed rate cut by December. And that The Pound, FXB, made its biggest one day gain since September 2005. The Aussie, FXA, made its biggest one day advance since May 16, 2008, as gold futures advanced nearly $15. The Canadian Dollar, FXC, fell for the fist time this week as prices for gold, oil and other commodities rose. The Swiss Krona, FXS, rose.

AC Markets in ActionForex article US Trade Deficit And Weaker Stocks Weighed On Dollar reports that late on Thursday, the Dollar dropped against majors, weighed down by a combination of weaker global stocks and data showing the US trade gap expanded to $62.2b, it's widest since March 2007.

TheLFB-Forex in AtionForex article Dollar Index And The Financial Sector provides a bearish slant that Washington Mutual, WM, the nation's largest savings and loan, had its debt ratings cut on Thursday. The bank is heading to its fourth straight quarterly loss and is facing as much as $19 billion in loses tied to residential mortgages. The drop on its credit ratings could force WaMu to sell part of its $143 billion deposit base, which would mean selling branches. "Toxic" might be the best descriptor for the Financial Sector. It would seem there just is no reason to invest while so much uncertainty exists. AIG (-27%), FRE (-23%), LEH (-15%), FNM (-9.6%) and MER (-9.2%) were the biggest percentage losers on Friday. WM (+4.24%) was an unlikely bright spot after the company issued statements saying its capital position was adequate, allaying market fears that it might be the next big bank to go down. On the day, the XLF fell 0.30 points (-1.40%) to close on 21.15, Chart of XLF is courtesy of Ted Burge ... XLF

Trader Tim Knight Is Terrifically Bearishg Gold
Tim Knight in article Getting Ready for the Gold/Energy Short relates: I wonder what cuteness the Feds are going to pull this weekend? Use taxpayer dollars to bail out Lehman? Send everyone a $2,000 check they can spend at WalMart? Cut interest rates to 0%? Make short-selling illegal? You just never know. verything is waiting to see what happens to LEH, of course. With only 365 cents left to its share price, there's not much left to fall. This last posting of the week is going to be somewhat different - - I'm not going to provide any opinion on the broad market. Instead, I'm going to offer a "theme" to invest. Specifically - - re-entering short positions on the energy/gold sector (I think of them as one sector these days, strange as that may sound). My narrative is pretty simple. I think the EUR/USD, which has been firming up, won't get much past the ~1.43 level, tinted below.

Peak US Treasuries Has Been Observed
The Resourceful Bear News Service is reporting that the interest rate on the 10 Year Note, $TNX, is going up from 3.6% ... $TNX

The bailout of the debt toxic and debt overwhelmed mortgage guarantors was "the mother of all credit writedowns" making for "Peak Treasuries On September 9, 2008".

The chart of the Treasuries ETF, TLT, shows the fall of the US Government bonds ... TLT

And the gravestone doji in BTTRX relates that the zero coupon bonds have peaked out ... BTTRX

All debt got a write-down this week because of the bailout, as is seen in LQD and AGG falling lower ... LQD

The Direxion mutual fund, DXKSX, which is 200% inverse of the rate on the 10 Year note, as seen in The Street ongoing monthly chart of DXKSX will provide low risk and good growth of investment for corporations seeking to preseve corporate wealth ... Chart of DXKSX

For historical note, the spike down bottom low of 13.25 in DXKSX was established September 9, 2008.

Recent Peak Stock Wealth Occurred August 11, 2008
In as much the dollar rally in stocks ended August 11, 1008, recent "Peak Stock Wealth" has occurred.

The stock market is in bearish mode, primarily over concerns of growth, as is seen by the Proshares bear market ETFs QID rising. It's recent bearish engulfing candlestick, followed by today's small gain provides a safe entry point for going short the Nasdaq, 100, QTEC. Chart of QID is courtesy of Ted Burge ... QID

Hurricane Ike Is Reported Bearing Down On Houston
Mary Foster of the Associated Press relates that a Hurricane Hunter monitoring Ike, says: "it's a big one, and it's going to get bigger".

Kondratieff Winter Settles In As Conflict, Bank Insolvency, Stagflation And The Mortgage Crisis Intensifies

Conflict
Mike Mish Sheldon in article Test Of Wills At Boeing relates "Time will tell who, if anyone, wins the battle. Most often both sides proclaim victory even though no one does".

Peter Symonds in GlobalResearch.ca article President Bush Authorises US Ground Operations Inside Pakistan reports that the US carried out a military strike to crack down on militant groups in its Federally Administered Tribal Areas, FATA.

Kaveh L Afrasiabi in GlobalResearch.ca article US a Step Closer to Iran Blockade reports that the EU US Western World Government has imposed new sanctions on Iran, this time targeting its shipping industry, by blacklisting the main shipping line and 18 subsidiaries, accusing the maritime carrier of being engaged in contraband nuclear material, a charge vehemently denied by Iran.

While the economic impact of the measures against Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, IRISL, will be minimal in light of the near absence of any connection between the shipping company and US businesses, this latest US initiative against Iran sends a strong signal about the US's intention to escalate pressure on Iran, even unilaterally if need be. And, perhaps, it is a prelude for more serious and dangerous actions in the near future, above all a naval blockade of Iran to choke off its access to, among other things, imported fuel.

Bank Insolvency
Scott Lanman of Bloomberg reports in article Fed Direct Loans Lose Stigma as Banks Push Borrowing to Record relates that the use of Federal Reserve Facilities has gone balistic as banks desperately seek liquidity and capital.

The article reports: "The low cost may 'delay necessary adjustments': at banks, said Vincent Reinhart, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington who was director of the Fed's monetary affairs division from 2001 to 2007. Lenders may 'have a hard time if the Federal Reserve tries to take it away,' he said.

Geithner, along with Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, told a group of banks including Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. on an Aug. 17 conference call that tapping the so-called discount window was a 'sign of strength' ".

Yes, a sign of strenght indeed -- not of the banks who avail themsleves of the liquidity, but rather of growing state corporatism, that is state corporate rule in a desperate move to achieve financial stability.

Elaine Meinel Supkis in article US Struggles As Ports Are Hammered By Mother Nature writes: "Note how the bankrupt Citigroup head as well as Geithner are calling this obvious raid on the Cave, a sign of strength! HAHAHA. Up is down, in is out and negative is positive. This is pure Outer Darkness Lightning territory. Whenever we see people stand reality on its head, we are looking at magic. Magicians believe that if you lie about the true condition of things, reality changes. This belief is stupid, of course. The gods control reality and the gods are really all goddesses: Mother Nature and the three evil sisters, History, Inflation and Depression. They love to use numbers and charts and unlike the liars who try to fool us, they keep very accurate accounts. Everything is carefully tracked and when the graphs show the 'hockey stick' sudden rise upwards, these demonic forces sharpen their fangs and claws and tear into whatever has dared to go off the charts. They hate things going off the charts. Balance is everything with them! They love to make everything equal zero."

Stagflation
Kevin Franco of CEP News in ActionForex article BOE's Tucker Says Slow Growth, Higher Inflation Likely reports that Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Paul Tucker said: "If in the interests of sustaining growth in the short run, we were to let inflation become established at higher levels, things could easily get out of control as higher medium-term inflation expectations would become embedded," Tucker said. "We would then find it much harder to bring inflation back to target, and could well end up having to generate a serious recession to put the genie back in the bottle."

Mortgage Crisis
Dan Levy of Bloomberg in article U.S. Foreclosures Hit Record in August as Housing Prices Fell reports that U.S. foreclosure filings rose to a record in August as falling home prices made it harder to sell or refinance homes to pay off the mortgage, RealtyTrac Inc. said. California had eight of the 10 metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates, led by Stockton at one in 50 households. Merced, Modesto, Vallejo-Fairfield and Riverside-San Bernardino ranked second through fifth. Bakersfield, Salinas- Monterey and Sacramento, the state capital, ranked eighth through 10th.

Presidential Candidate Obama Appeals To The Idealism Of Youth And Students For National Service
Patrick Martin in WSWS.org article Obama Calls For US Military Mobilization reports that the Democratic candidate said at the Forum on National Service, Thursday September 11, 2008, sponsored by Time at Columbia University in New York.
As president he would stand behind a National Service Initiative: "There was that sense of sacred obligation that, frankly, we have lost during these last two wars," Obama said. "I want to restore that." The candidate continued: "And I think it’s important for the president to say, this is an important obligation. If we are going into war, then all of us go, not just some."

The Zoo provides Key Quotes in Video Format.

Douglas Hester in article Hitler Obama Youth recalls that another country went down this road 60 years or so ago, and it didn't work out so well.

Obama said: "'We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives that we've set,' ... 'We've got to have a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well funded.'"

He said he would make federal assistance conditional on school districts establishing service programs and set the goal of 50 hours of service a year for middle and high school students.

The night's forum seems to just be a continuation of Obama's speech in Colorado Springs where he is quoted by Reuters saying: " Loving your country must mean accepting your responsibility to do your part to change it." Colorado Springs is in a conservative region of the state that is home to a military base, the U.S. Air Force Academy, and is the hub of many christian religious non-profit organizations, as well as to a host of Evangelical Christian megachurches.

Yes, the Hitler Youth will be returning, so get your brown shirts and jack boots ready if Obama is elected.

Hitler Youth recruitment poster. The wording translates to: “Youth serves the leader. All ten year-olds into the Hitler Youth.“

To some degree I find it strange that black man would endorse slavery. But then again, his words, prove that even he is a neocon. Yes there are neocons on the left and on the right. And they take morality, taxation and investment every which way but right.

The Question Is: Will Gold Rise Or Fall?
The Euro moved above a support line first at 141.140 and then at 142 to close at 142.38; and the Yen fell to close at 92.43 ... FXE and FXY

The Stockcharts.com chart of the EUR/JPY, that is, FXE:FXY, shows the EUR/JPY at support. This abeyance, but not abatement, to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, enabled gold to rise today ... FXE:FXY

Greg Michalowsk in article EURUSD approaches resistance at 1.4225. Expect Resistance writes: "The 1.4225 level is approaching. The price corresponds to the high from September 9th and the 200 hour moving average (at 1.4227). I would expect sellers at the level".

James Chen in ActionForex FXSolutions article Chart Of The Day shows the strong downdraft of the EURUSD.

And Catalin in Euro Daily Update provides an Andrews Pitchfork view of the EUR/USD which to me suggests further down.

And Greg Michalowski in article USDJPY Is Testing Key Technical Resistance Aat 107.70 relates "The USDJPY is testing the 200 hour moving average resistance at the 107.70 level." It appears that the USD/JPY is bouncing around the top of an Ellott Wave 2 up and sometime will go down into an Elliott Wave 3 Down.

The real mover has been the EUR/JPY; it is forcefully down, as it is in an Elliott Wave 3 Down.

Unlike Elliot Wave 3 Ups which are powerfully sweeping up, Elliott Wave 3 Downs are aggressive and very severely down as we see in the fall of the Euro, FXE, taking down the world stocks, EFA, the emerging market stocks, EEM, and the natural resource stocks, such as metal manufacturing, XME, the HUI indexed precious metal mining shares, GDX, steel producres, SLX, coal producers, KOL, energy producers, XME, and energy service, OIH as well as the whole commodity complex, RJI, oil, USO, and even gold, GLD.

The chart of UUP weekly shows a massive gravestone doji. The gravestone doji would suggest an end to the dollar rally and a rise in gold, yet all this is is just an ETF, it is the outcome of greater currency trading ... UUP Weekly

If Holistic Forex comments, I will post its comments here.

Here is the comment of Jesse, in article US Dollar Weekly Chart with Commitments of Traders which says: "The explosion in the open interest, which is unprecidented in our memory, and the record level of funds long positions suggests a blow off top driven by forced panic buying probably in some short of squeeze or unwind."

Jesse is a Dollar Bear and a Gold Bull.

I have to ask how did the explosion get there? Did the plunge protection team produce the explosion by using US Federal Reserve dollars to go long the futures market? Did yen carry traders use loans from the bank of Japan to long the futures as well? Did the Federal Reserve twist the primary dealers to create it by going long? Or did the Saudis or the Bank of Japan use their massive reserves to drive the US Dollar up?

What if the explosion is not a blow off top but rather a blow down top -- a top to blow down of oil and gold. In other words, Jesse sees the committment of traders report as bearish, while the fact is it could be bullish, if the longs keep committed to the US Dollar.

The deflationry presssure in EUR/JPY is terrific, and I really do not see any particular reason for it to let up.

Although I am bearish the US Treasuries, and have documented that a top is in for them, I do not see a run on them, so therefore, I do not see any particular flight from the dollar yet.

Could it be that "they", the currency traders, will continue to drive gold down by shorting the EUR/JPY? I rather think so, simply because they are in control, and probably don't feel any need to take profits and go long?

Yes, the effect of shorting EUR/JPY will be more down for the Euro, FXE, Gold, GLD, the world stocks, EFA, the emerging market stocks, EEM, and its leaders Russia, RSX, and Brizil, EWZ, and the natural resource stocks, such as metal manufacturing, XME, the HUI indexed precious metal mining shares, GDX, steel producres, SLX, coal producers, KOL, energy producers, XME, and energy service, OIH.

Here is the big "but": there is a systeic risk event coming, the banks are really insolvent, that is in desperate need of obtaining capital. And because of the impact of FASB 141, unable to get capital to stay liquid, so they have to rely on the lending window at the Federal Reserve to stay operational.

AIG insurane had a capital loss event today. Greg Farrell and Nicole Bullock in FinancialTimes article
AIG Falls On Fears Over CDS Exposure report that "Investor panic over the state of the US financials spread to AIG on Friday, as the stock dropped 31 per cent during active trading. The shares fell 2 per cent further in extended trading after Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency, said it may cut the insurance company's credit rating. More than other insurance companies, AIG has significant exposure in real estate and the credit default swap market, two segments that have been crushed in the past year by the decline in asset prices. Although it boasted revenues of $110bn in 2007, AIG has taken $18.5bn in losses over the past three quarters".

Felix Salmon in SeekingAlpha article AIG The Mark-to-Lehman Market relates that "Ooh now this is ugly. AIG's shares are down 26% today to their lowest level in over 15 years; the firm's credit default swaps, CDS, are wider than Lehman's. Note that AIG is not trading at zero, in the way that Lehman (LEH) and WaMu (WM) are: its market capitalization is still a substantial $35 billion or so. But the credit markets are certainly far from reassured that there's any value in the equity. Your shares can -- and quite possibly will -- go all the way to zero".

Doug Noland writing in Safehaven.com article, Too Big To Fail, writes that "while the media directed its attention to Lehman, the pricing of AIG Credit Default Swaps, DCDS, exploded this week. This is a company with a Trillion dollar balance sheet and enormous exposure to the CDS market and other derivatives. And although its balance sheet is only about a third the size of AIG's, Washington Mutual also saw its CDS blow out. And while most holders of Fannie and Freddie obligations have come out of the GSE fiasco unscathed (or better), one can see how this crisis going forward will see more pain meted out to the corporate bondholder - not just the poor lowly equity owner. Perhaps the prospect of Lehman debt holders suffering losses has pushed the acutely vulnerable CDS market to the edge."

I want to go back to concept mentioned above of bank insolvency. The banks are on life support, they use to get a little triage, then they got a transfusion, but now they are on total life support, sustained only by TAF, TSLF and PDCF as related by Adrian Ash of BullionVault in Safehaven.com article Safehaven.com article PLIF!! Just an Everyday Emergency

The banks and investment bankers, will one day have an "AIG Insurance like event", where they will get further capitally depleted, and then kaboom, the stock market fall, and the whole world wide financial system freeze up, and the US Dollar go into a nosedive.

At that time those owning gold will survive; and those who do not own gold will not. Peter Schiff Last in Safehaven.com article Last Gasp of a Doomed Currency writes: When the dust settles, the Federal government will be left with staggering liabilities that will be impossible to repay with legitimate means (taxation or borrowing). To make good, they must rely on the printing press to create money out of thin air. The rapid expansion in money supply will push the dollar down mercilessly. Right now every asset on the planet is being sold except the U.S. dollar. To me this rally looks like the last gasp of a dying currency. Just like a toy rocket ship, once the dollar runs out of fuel it will crash back down to Earth.

So what is one to do?

Does one invest in gold now, only to suffer loss at a falling EUR/JPY?

Does one go short gold, GLD, now? or short with DRR, DEE or DZZ now, as the the EUR/JPY is likely to continue to fall sharply lower?

I Encourage That Pay For Investment Insight From Two Sources
1) Ted Burge TedLines
2) Gary Dorsch's Global Money Trends newsletter or call toll free to order, Sunday thru Thursday, 8 am to 9 pm EST, and on Friday 8 am to 5 pm, at 866-553-1007. Outside the US call 561-367-1007.

Mr. Dorsch wrote in Safehaven.com artcle Safehaven.com Is The Super Commodity Cycle Dead Or Alive that the direction of gold prices and inflation expectations also hinge on the direction of world oil prices. It's doubtful that the ECB hawks and the Group-of-Six central banks would have been so successful in knocking gold and oil prices lower without the help of Saudi king Abdullah, the central banker of oil. Iran and Venezuela would like to see the Saudis cut their oil output at the upcoming OPEC meeting on Sept 9th to stabilize the oil market, and prevent prices from moving lower.

However, the Saudi kingdom might be looking at the US political calendar, and would feel more comfortable with a John McCain presidency, thus Riyadh might be inclined to leave its oil output unchanged awhile longer. Already, the 25% drop in crude oil prices from five-weeks ago is paying dividends for Riyadh. In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the US presidential race, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July, and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

So is the "Commodity Super Cycle" dead or alive? Is now the time to buy badly battered commodities? The answers to these tough questions will be published in the August 23rd edition of Global Money Trends.

And Mr. Dorsch wrote in Safehaven article "Maverick McCain" and the Resurrection of the US$ that "As soon as you think you've got the key to the stock market, they change the lock," lamented Joe Granville, who is mostly remembered for his bearish calls on the US stock market during the 1970's, 1980's, and the 1990's. Nowadays, many currency traders are scratching their heads, trying to figure out what's behind the sudden resurrection of the US-dollar, which is flexing its muscles for the first time in two-years, and defying conventional logic, by climbing sharply higher against most foreign currencies, including those that offer much higher rates of interest.

The Euro has plummeted 12% vs the US-dollar since July 15th, tumbling to as low as $1.410 today. Earlier this week, Euro-zone Finance chief Jean-Claude Juncker gave currency traders the green-light to trash the Euro. "Things are developing in the right direction, in line with the commitments of the US Treasury that it stated in recent months. The Euro is less than $1.44, and it reflects economic fundamentals better than the Euro flirting with $1.60. I still think that the Euro is overvalued, not only against the dollar, but also against other currencies," he said.

What's behind this sea-change in market psychology towards the US-dollar, where the focus has shifted away from interest rate differentials, and instead, has veered-off towards other key factors? They are several reasons that are beyond the scope of this article, but were highlighted in the August editions of the Global Money Trends newsletter.

Throughout the US-dollar's tortuous 40% slide over the past six-years, the Arab oil kingdoms in the Persian Gulf stayed loyal to their archaic US-dollar pegs, even while the Fed's indifference to the sliding US-dollar sent inflation shock waves through their dollar-linked economies. Saudi Arabia was forced to expand its M3 money supply by more than 20% in order to defend the dollar peg, which in turn, fueled inflation to +11.1% in July, it's highest in 30-years. In Abu Dhabi, the biggest member of the UAE federation, prices were 12.9% higher in June.

The Arab oil kingdoms rescued the US-dollar from the brink of collapse, by rapidly expanding the supply of Kuwaiti dinars, Saudi riyals, and UAE dirhams, and then recycled about $250 of Petro-dollars into US Treasuries over the past 12-months, through their brokers in London. In return, the US armed forces are defending the Arab Oil kingdoms from their dangerous neighbors to the north in Iran, which seeks nuclear weapons, and is closely aligned with czarist Russia, and Venezuela's mercurial kingpin Hugo Chavez, - forming the "Axis of Oil."

The recycling of Arabian Petro-dollars into US Treasuries put a floor under the US$ Index at the 70-level this summer, and persuaded bearish currency traders to cover massive short positions that had been built-up in the US$ over the past six-years. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia upped the ante, in support of the dollar, by boosting the kingdom's oil output by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from a year-ago to 9.7 million in July, which finally deflated the crude oil bubble by $45 barrel so far.

On Sept 3rd, Saudi Arabia announced that it had started pumping crude from the Khursaniyah field, which would boost the kingdom's output capacity by 500,000 bpd to around 11.8 million barrels, and aims to boost its total oil production capacity to 12.5 million bpd by the end of next year. But with crude oil experiencing its largest slide in history, (in dollars) OPEC hawks Iran and Venezuela called for production cutbacks, to put a floor under the market at $100 /barrel.

On Sept 8th, OPEC chief Chakib Khelil said he expected the oil market to be oversupplied at the end of this year. "There is plenty of oil in the market, stocks are pretty good. There will be an oversupply of one-million bpd by early next year," he predicted. Khelil also noted that oil prices were easing as the value of dollar rose. US crude fell to under $102 as the dollar hit an 11-month high against the Euro. "What we are seeing now is the inverse relationship between the US dollar and the oil price is verified. The dollar is strengthening, the oil price is going down," he added.

In a compromise, to placate the mullahs in Tehran, the Saudis agreed to a surprising cutback in oil output, in an effort to stabilize the market. OPEC is pumping roughly 790,000 bpd above target, the bulk of which comes from Saudi Arabia, the central banker of oil, which is pumping around 750,000 bpd above its official quota. "If you do your own calculations properly, OPEC will be a lowering its production by about 520,000 barrels per day," said OPEC chief Khelil.

But the Arabian monarchs also have their eyes on the US political calendar, and have driven oil prices lower, in order to help John "Maverick" McCain get elected, and become the next commander in chief of the US armed forces in the Persian Gulf. On August 31st, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham reminded the Arab oil kingdoms that Democratic vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden lacked the backbone to stand up to powerful foes or to fix broken governments in the Middle East.

"Biden has national security experience. But experience and judgment need to come together. Biden voted against the first Gulf War to evict Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. He opposed the surge in Iraq. He wants to partition Iraq," Graham said. As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden did oppose the recent US troop buildup to defeat al-Qaeda and has called for separating Iraq into three autonomous provinces - Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish, which is diametrically opposed to the views of the Arab oil kingdoms in the Persian Gulf.

Between now and Nov 4th, the Saudi and Kuwaiti monarchs will attempt to put a lid the oil market, allowing US gasoline prices to trickle lower, and ease the anxieties of jittery swing voters who are worried about the economy. Soybean and corn prices have already plunged by 30% since early July, in sympathy with lower oil prices, and with a little bit of luck, Americans might see lower food prices before the November 4th election. What's likely to happen to the oil market after Nov 4th, will be presented in the upcoming Sept 12th edition of Global Money trends.

Not since the contest between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in 1980, has expectations of the outcome of a US-presidential election impacted the currency markets in a big-way. In 1980, any signal that Carter was pulling ahead in the polls, would send the dollar plummeting in the foreign exchange market. Conversely, Reagan's landslide victory, by a 51% to 41% margin in the popular tally, and a whopping 489 to 49 in electoral-college votes, set in motion a vigorous four-year bull-run for the US dollar, and lifted the greenback to 3.50 German marks.

In 1980, when Reagan defeated Carter, the British pound lost 10% vs the dollar after six-months, 22% after one-year and 47% by the end of Reagan's first term. The "Reagan Revolution" included big tax cuts, and wide swaths of working-class Democrats defected to the Republican Party, which Mr McCain hopes to attract in the weeks ahead, with his plan to stimulate the US economy by cutting the corporate tax rate 10% to 25%, and extending the Bush tax cuts beyond 2010.

There are several reasons that explain the sudden plunge in the Euro, including the unwinding of "yen carry" trades, but few traders have noticed that the dollar's resurrection is mirroring the odds of a McCain victory in November. Futures traders dealing at the on-line parlor Inntrade, based in Dublin, Ireland, have lifted their bids on "Maverick" McCain to a 47.5% probability of winning the election, up from 30% in mid-July. The perceived shift in "Maverick" McCain's" political fortunes are linked to the latest Gallup poll, putting him 5% ahead of Mr Obama, due to a huge 15% shift of independent voters and women, leaning towards Alaskan governor Sarah Palin.

Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska introduced herself to America before a roaring crowd at the Republican National Convention last week, as "just your average hockey mom" then pitched herself as a champion of government reform, sliced and diced Democratic candidate Barack Obama as an elitist, and attacked the liberal media. McCain wants to put Sarah Palin in charge of US oil and energy policy if he becomes president, to lessen American dependence on foreign sources of oil, which in turn, could have a big impact on the dollar in the years ahead.

Alongside McCain's jump in the polls, the US-Dollar Index rallied 12% towards the 80-level, gaining support from the emergence of a militaristic Russia, which invaded South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and threatened to cut-off energy supplies to Europe. Kremlin kingpin Vladimir Putin has refurbished the US-dollar's traditional status as a "safe haven" currency. Not since the end of the Cold War, has the US-dollar been treated as a "safe-haven" currency in times of dangerous geopolitical turmoil.

Nowadays, the Persian Gulf oil kingdoms regard the possibility of a nuclear armed Iran as a "dire and direct threat" to their own existence, and are flocking to the US-dollar as a safe haven. The sovereign wealth funds (SWF's) controlled by Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have roughly $1.7 trillion between them, dwarfing the largest private equity funds in the world. During the first half of 2008 alone, Saudi Arabia raked in $192 billion from oil exports,just $2 billion less than the kingdom's total oil export revenues in 2007.

With their enormous size, the Persian Gulf SWF's can easily move global financial markets. By 2015, the Persian Gulf SWF's could grow to $5-6 trillion. If Chinese, Russian, and Korean SWF's are taken into account, the total global SWF value could top $12 trillion, or almost equal to the output of the Euro-zone's economy. SWF's are quickly becoming the most powerful investors in the world, and account for 12% of the trading volume in commodities. Their activities will increasingly impact financial markets, and the distribution of strategic resources.

Russia holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and the eighth-largest oil reserves. It supplies one-quarter of Europe's oil supply and 30% of its natural gas. In July, deliveries to the Czech Republic through the Druzhba pipeline were cut by 40% after Prague signed an agreement with the US to install an anti-missile shield. The emergence of a militaristic Russia, under former KGB spy master Putin, in alliance with the "Axis of Oil," has tarnished the Euro's stellar image, and added an extra degree of risk in investing in European stock markets.

Putin has declared that a new Cold War with the West has already begun and is considering arming Russia's Baltic fleet with nuclear warheads and pointing them at European cities. "Of course we are returning to those times. It is clear that if a part of the US nuclear capability turns up in Europe, and, in the opinion of our military specialists will threaten us, then we are forced to take corresponding steps in response. The strategic balance in the world is being upset and in order to restore this balance, we will be creating a system of countering that anti-missile system. Naturally, we will have to have new targets in Europe," Putin warned.

Since Russia invaded South Ossetia and Abkhazia on August 7th, the Kremlin's foreign exchange reserves have declined by $16.4 billion, the biggest outflow of capital since the country's financial meltdown in 1998. Foreign investors, who hold roughly half of all Russian shares outstanding, many listed in London and New York, have sold an estimated $20 billion of Russian stocks. The Russian central bank was forced to sell US$5 billion in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the Russian rouble, after it tumbled 10% against the resurgent US$, to a one-year low.

While the Kremlin's coffers have mushroomed, the Russian corporate sector is still heavily reliant on foreign investors. The local bond market is small, with just $60 billion worth of ruble issues. Russian companies borrow funds on the world capital markets, and foreigners own half of the $1 trillion debt. But now, Russian companies are facing a liquidity crunch, since foreign lenders are balking and won't touch any Russian paper. The impact on the Russian stock market has been severe.

The Russian Trading system Index (RTS) was roiled by the exodus of foreign investors, who are on high alert for political risk. Since peaking in May, the Russian stock market plunged 40%, shaving roughly $500 billion from the value of Russian stocks. Foreigners dumped large blocks of Russian mining companies after Kremlin kingpin Putin, accused a large steel and coal mining company, Mechel, MTL.n of tax evasion, causing its share price to collapse. When Putin targets a company, there can be dire consequences, such as the demise of Yukos, a big oil company that was bankrupted on trumped-up tax charges.

Roughly half the RTS Index is comprised of energy related companies, which have also been hard hit, by the slide in crude oil prices to $102 /barrel. Soaring oil prices were behind Russia's political and economic resurgence, and help lift the RTS Index by an astounding 720% from six-years ago. But nowadays, the term "Peak Oil" is invoking images of a peak in oil prices and global demand, due to a synchronized slide in the global economy, rather than fears that the world is running out of oil.

One big surprise at this week's OPEC meeting was the presence of Russian deputy prime minister Igor Sechin, sent by Putin, who announced that "Broad cooperation with OPEC is one of Russia's top priorities. OPEC is one of Russia's key partners on the global oil market." In the past, Russia has agreed to trim production in line with OPEC output cuts to support prices, and traders must monitor Putin's next move.

Most interesting is the observation that the Euro's slide against the US$, is the near-perfect inverse image of the US-dollar's climb against the Russian rouble. The emergence of militarist Russia, ready to aim its nukes at Europe, and a stranglehold over Europe's energy supply, has triggered a mini-flight of capital from the Euro and the Russian rouble. In contrast, the US-dollar, backed by the world's most powerful military, wins by default as a safe haven.

The foreign Exodus from Brazil's Bovespa stock exchange, EWZ, and undermines the Brazilian currency The Real.

Yet there appears to be more reasons behind the US-dollar's rally against all major foreign currencies, than just its newly polished image as a "safe-haven" currency. Brazil is not under any threat of military attack from Russia or Iran, and it's self-sufficient in energy, yet it's currency, the real, has lost -14% against the US-dollar in recent weeks, even though Brazil's interest rates are +11% higher.

Foreign investors pulled money out of Brazil's stock market for a third straight month in August, triggered by the steepest plunge in commodities in five decades. Slumping commodity prices led Sao Paulo's Bovespa stock index sharply lower, to below the psychological 50,000-level, or 34% off from its May 20th all-time high. More than half of the Bovespa index is made up of natural resources companies and steel mills, whose fate largely hinges on the direction of the global economy.

The Dow Jones Commodity Index has tumbled 27% from a record high set eight weeks ago. Steel prices have plunged 30%, and soybeans are 30% lower. Brazil had posted a trade surplus of $40 billion last year on exports of $160 billion, and strong demand for commodities helped secure a 27% jump in exports, from January to July of this year, compared to the same period a year ago.

An unwinding yen carry trade unravels Brazil's trade surplus.

Latin America's largest economy enjoyed a current account surplus for the last five years, its currency rose to a nine-year high while the central bank stockpiled enough US-dollars to pay off its entire foreign debt and become a net creditor for the first time. But imports are growing at twice the rate of exports this year, due to the super-strong real, and Brazil's trade surplus plunged 42% in the first half of this year. Now the virtuous cycle is moving in reverse, as commodity prices slide, and foreigners repatriate their money, to avoid losses related to the Bovespa index.

The unwinding yen carry trade has deleverage the top two emerging markets.

The Brazilian real has plunged 10% in the past 10-days to 1.77, its lowest level against the dollar since February. The performance of Brazil's currency and stock market, which largely hinge on the direction of commodity markets, haven't differed much from Russia's. These top-2 emerging markets are leveraged plays on the global economy, and when commodities trend lower, it has a double barreled selling effect on emerging markets.

My Personal Investment Strategy
ActionPoints in article Index Watch For September 15, 2008 provides the article Weekly Dollar Chart which shows $80.40 to be strong resistance for the US Dollar.

Gold trades inversely of the US Dollar, and so the implication is that gold has the potential to go up, as the US Dollar hits resistance and falls lower.

Jesse documents that there is a terrific number of futures contracts long the US Dollar in article US Dollar Weekly Chart with Commitments of Traders which says: "The explosion in the open interest, which is unprecidented in our memory, and the record level of funds long positions suggests a blow off top driven by forced panic buying probably in some short of squeeze or unwind."

I take the comments recognising that Jesse is a Dollar Bear and a Gold Bull, so I tone it down a bit and think that there is a massive position long that is supporting the US Dollar.

From reading the Gary Dorsch article "Maverick McCain" and the Resurrection of the US$, I conclude that the future postions are probably owned by the Saudis, who are likely to hold their position until their McCain-Palin team is elected.

The falling EUR/JPY, that is a falling Euro, FXE, since the selling by speculators of oil futures on July 14, 2008, enforced by a historic level of longs in the futures market for the US Dollar, $USD, has sent the price of gold lower, and will likely continue to send gold lower even more ... FXE and FXY ... Chart of FXE:FXY -- EUR/JPY

Soon we will have a systemic risk event, most likely, a "liquidity scare" will come, on issues surrounding mortgage backed securities, credit default swaps, CEDS, counterparty risk, and the inability of financial organizations to obtain capital due to FASB 141.

When the world wide financial breakdown comes, and only then, will gold rise in value, and establish itself as the defacto international currency, and means of garnering and maintaining wealth.

I am currently long a few SKF and have a few gold coins, so it's going to be a while before I see any investment gain.

Gold could easily fall to the $650 to $675 to $690 range shown in the July 11, 2007 Kitco Alf Field article Gold We Have Lift Off

The Jesse article Gold and Oil Long Term Weekly Charts As of August 27, 2008 provides the chart of gold where $675 is seen as strong support.

Dollar Exuberant Stocks Will At One Time Fall ... I Present These Charts As Tombstones To The Bygone Era Of Prosprity
CY, BBBY, PLCE, AAPL, AZO, ITB, QCOM.

Is Gold Going To Stabilize ... Or Fall Lower In Price?

, , , ...

Introduction
Today, gold maintained its value relative to US stocks, as the yen carry trade further unwond, sending commodities, currencies, world stocks, and basic material stocks tumbling lower.

The continued timing and fall potential of the EURO, should be considered by every investor, as it is coming. The Euro will fall, the question is when; if it continues to fall this week, then it will be decimation unto gold, oil and commodities. If the fall of the Euro, comes later, then the US Dollar will likely fall and gold will likely rise as well.

Gold represents genuine wealth and provides protection against the financial consequences of systemic risk events. The question for all investors is "when should one own gold".

The risk of loss suffered from a falling price of gold needs to be balanced with the advantage that gold provides against systemic risk breakdown.

Do you think you should be invested in gold? ... $GOLD

Or do you think it wise to go long a bear market investment like DEE, EEV, and FXP? ... DEE, EEV, or FXP

The Euro Carry Trade Unwound Sending Commodities, Currencies, World Stocks, And Basic Material Stocks Tumbling Lower.
Stockcharts.com reported that the EUR/JPY, that is FXE:FXY, commonly called the yen carry trade, better called the Euro carry trade, fell from 1.54 to 1.52: this caused the massive stock sell off in commodities, currencies and stocks worldwide ... FXE:FXY fell to 1.52

Charts Show Commodities Have Been Taken Down Lower By The EUR/JPY
The gold ETF, GLD, fell 3% lower for the week to 76.50 ... GLD

The ongoing MSN Finance chart of GLD relative to overall US Stock market, VTI, shows that gold started to break down and fall lower in price on August 28, 2008: it is now 8% lower, while the ETF UUP reflects that the US Dollar has remained strong.

One ehcouraging fact about gold is that it has maintained its value relative to stocks, as the GLD to VTI weekly ratio, stands as 1.24 which is above support at 1.20 ... GLD VTI Weekly

Gold daily, $GOLD, shows a close at $777. Perhaps this lucky number will be the floor for gold to now head higher .... $GOLD daily closed at $777

The US Dollar, $USD, shows a close at $79.43 ... $USD daily closed at 79.43.

The Yahoo Finance five day ongoing chart of USD to EUR (USDEUR=X) relative to GLD, shows the US Dollar has risen to .7055 and that gold has lost 3% of its value in the last week.

Gold weekly goes back to its rise immediately after the Citigroup CDO Bust of October 2007 .... $GOLD Weekly

Oil, USO, fell 4% for the week to 8.35.

The commodity ETF, RJI, fell 3% for the week to 10.50 ... RJI

Currencies Have Been Selling Off
The unwinding of the yen carry trade can be seen in the daily Euro chart, and the weekly Euro chart ... FXE Daily shows June 24, July 14, and July 25-27 as important days in world economic affairs ... FXE Weekly shows how a falling Euro has been the instigator of disinvestment world wide and presents the risk of keeping the US Dollar up and pushing gold down even lower.

Said another way, a falling EUR/JPY has been the force behind many Deflationary Hurricanes.

I am "hoping" the USD/JPY falls lower, and "hoping" the EUR/JPY bounces higher; then we will see ongoing disinvestment from the US Stock market, and a rise in the price of gold.

All of the commodity currencies have fallen sharply lower ... FXA, FXS, FXC

Yen carry traders have been forced to sell their stock investments; and buy Yen, FXY, to repay their 0.5% Bank of Japan loans ... FXY

The reader of this article needs to give great heed to the fall potential of these currencies, especially the EURO; it is coming. But the question is when. I pray and hope it will not be tomorrow or later this week like the author Holistic Forex below believes; as if the fall comes now, it will be decimation unto gold. I do own a few gold coins that I bought when gold was $375, so I am not too concerned; but to those invested in the gold ETF GLD, there is concern and should be concern.

Then again the risk of loss suffered from a falling price of gold needs to be balanced with the advantage that gold provides against a systemic risk breakdown, as when it comes, hard assets like gold, cigarettes, and booze and even silver will be in demand.

World Stocks Fell Lower Today
The unwinding of the yen carry trade caused the emerging markets, EEM, to fall 5.5%, and the world shares, EFA, 3%.

Russia, RSX, -9 was the BRIC, EEB, loss leader followed by Brazil, EWZ, -7% China, FXI, -5% and India, INP -4%. Investors expressed their concerned today about a future war in the Caucasus possibly extending as far south as Syria and Israel.

Commodity intensive Australia, EWA, fell 6%.

Taiwan, EWT, fell 5% and South Korea fell 3.5%.

Commodity Stocks Fell Hard Today
The basic material stocks, IYM, that is XLE, OIH, GDX, XME, KOL, SLX all fell lower ... xle, oih, gdx, xme, kol, slx ... IYM -6%, XLE -7%, OIH -7%, GDX -9%, XME -9%, KOL -10%, SLX -7%

Potash Corporation, POT, and Rio Tinto, RTP, were yen carry trade darlings; both lost 8% today ... POT and RTP.

The HUI Indexed precious metal mining shares began to disconnect from the price of gold in November 2007 .... GDX began to disconnect from GLD late last year

Silver proved itself to be an industrial metal; and not an investment metal in March of this year as it fell sharply lower in respect to gold ... GLD compared to SLV yearly ... GLD compared to SLV six month.

Silver Standard Resources Inc has had a lot of yen carry trade investment over the years as investors bought long ago at the low price of $2 to $4. This week the investors sold out of this speculative silver mining exploration company which has never made any money producing silver ... SSRI fell 19% this week

Solar energy stocks, TAN, -12% and KWT, -12%, fell on today's lower EURO, FXE, and higher yen; and on lower oil, USO, which fell 4% on the day.

It was on June 24, 2008 that the yen carry trade began to sharply unwind and cause severe disinvestment in the resource intensive emerging markets as concerns grew over rising inflation and diminished growth opportunities; today's sell off continues to reflect these fundamental investment concerns.

The unwinding is seen here in the Yahoo Finance chart of gold, GLD, compared to EEM, SLV, GDX, XME, and SLX -- gold has held up fairly well where as the commodity stocks and silver have not.

US Stocks Fell Sharply As The US Financial Sector Went Into Meltdown
The US Stocks, VTI, fell 3.5%, as the the US financial shares, IYF, fell 6%, on concerns of Lehman's liquidity; it fell 52%. Stockbrokers and dealers, IAI, -8% investment bankers, KCE, -8% banks, KBE, -6%, Insurance, KIE, -5%.

Home construction stocks, ITB, fell 7% lower.

Clean energy stocks, PBW, fell 7% lower.

Real estate, RWR, fell 4%.

The growth shares fell more than the value shares today, as evidenced by their relative fall in value: IWP, -4%, and IWO -4%.

Semiconductors, SMH, fell 3% lower; leading the Nasdaq, QQQQ, 2% lower; Sandisk, SNDK, fell 7% and Cypress Semiconductors 9% ... SNDK, CY

Indices fell as follows:
the Russell 2000, IWM, $RUT, -2%, ... IWM
the S&P, SPY, $SPX, -3%
the Dow, DIA, $INDU, -2%
the Nasdaq, QQQQ, $NDX -2%

The ratio of the Russell 2000 Value Shares compared to the Growth Shares, IWN:IWO, remains elevated at 0.91, which is the January 2007 to April 2007 level, as the growth shares, IWO, fell more than the value shares, IWN, ... IWN:IWO Weekly ... IWN:IWO Daily

The IWN:IWO weekly chart is important to understanding the coming fast fall of the Russell 2000, which is comprised of small US companies highly dependent upon a functional banking system. The US system is in desperate shape. Therefore as the banks and investment bankers go into greater meltdown; the Russell 2000, will be lead by its value shares quickly lower.

Yet a fall in the bank stocks, IAT, definitely turned down the value stocks FTA, RZV, IWN and FAB .... IAT turned down FTA, RZV, IWN and FAB

The Bear Market Definitely Reasserted Itself As Transportation And Utility Shares Fell Lower
The bear market picked up speed again as the transportation shares, IYT, joined in turning dramatically lower: they fell 3% lower, on a lower price of oil. In theory they should have risen on the lower oil price ... IYT

With both transportation, IYT, and industrials, XLI, now falling lower, we have Dow Theory confirmation of a bear market ... XLI

Utility shares, VPU, continued to fall lower, they closed off 3%. Look at how they have sold off since June 23, 2008; I believe the yen carry traders went short utilities at that time. The double down in the utility shares suggests that short sellers of this sector should take profit at this time. And the double down in the utility share suggests we should see a bounce up in gold, GLD. ... VPU

We are well into Kondratieff Winter
Being well into Kondratieff Winter, there will be an ever increasing application of the Liquidation Thesis where government services and payments, service sector jobs, public and private debt of all types, and unfunded retiree benefits are going to be liquidated, that is done away with.

Health care REITS such as LTC Properties, LTC, which invests in long-term care properties whose services are paid for by the US Government will see their stock value rapidly depleted ... LTC

Bear Market ETFs Rose In Value

My perspective is these have two have topped out:

The 200% inverse of the emerging markets EEV rose 12% to 117.

The 200% inverse of China, FXP, rose 12% to 101.

My perspective is that these three are in cup and handle pattern breakout:

The 200% inverse of the Nasdaq 100, QTEC, QID, rose 3%, QID

The 200% inverse of the Dow 30, DXD, rose 4%.

The 200% inverse of the S&P, SDS, rose 6%

I personally am invested in SKF, currently at a loss.

The 200% inverse of the Financial Sector, SKF, rose 11% to 114 ... SKF

Since July 24, 2008, DEE, EEV and FXP have gone up and SKF has gone down. Is a change about to occur? I think so and I think the change will be good for gold; that is why I recommend an investment in gold ... SKF vs EEV and FXP have gone up since July 24 as seen in this chart beginning in early June 2007

Peak Dollar Likely Arrived Today
UUP rose 0.04% to close at $24.50, and manifested a lollipop hanging man candlestick, suggesting that a top is in for this ETF and for gold ... UUP

The US Dollar, $USD, closed 0.05% lower at 79.43, manifesting a long legged bearish doji ... $USD

The US Dollar had been supported by a strong USD/JPY; but today it turned lower in addition to the EUR/JPY, falling lower, as can be seen in the 5 day ongoing Yahoo Finance chart of the USD/JPY relative to the EUR/JPY ... USD/JPY compared to EUR/JPY

Peak US Treasuries Likely Arrived Today As Well
Tomorrow, there will likely be a bounce up in stocks, and a corresponding fall lower in US Treasuries making for the likely beginning of a run on the US Treasuries, as concern grows over the cost of the bailout of Freddie Mac, FRE, and Fannie Mae, FNM, and ongoing concern over the level two and level three assets at banks, investment bankers, insurance companies, and in real estate organizations world wide.

A lifetime high was likely put in today, in US Government Bonds, TLT, and in the zero coupon mutual bond fund BTTRX ... TLT Daily and TLT Weekly and BTTRX

The futures market place US Treasuries, $USB, barely moved higher ... $USB

The ratio of the cash Treasuries to its futures companion, TLT:$USB, shows TLT, to be over extended and suggests the wisdom of an investment in TBT, or better yet DXKSX ... TLT:$USB and DXKSX

The interest rate on the 10 Year US Treasury Bond, $TNX, is likely putting in a double bottom ... $TNX

And the interest rate on the 30 Year US Treasury Bond, $TYX, likely put in a spiked bottom today ... $TYX

A top is likely in DXKLX, suggesting the wisdom of purchasing DXKSX .... DXKLX and DXKSX

The 5 day ongoing Yahoo Finance chart of the interest rate on the 10 Year US Treasury, ^TYX, suggests the bond market place may call interest rates higher as concerns grow over a number of investment factors ... ^TYX

Higher interest rates will be bullish for gold ... eventually ... if it is not injured by the EUR/JPY turning lower this week or next.

The Battle Between The US Dollar And Gold Can Be Followed In These Web Places
The ongoing 5 day Yahoo Finance of UUP compared to GLD.

The INO.com Dollar, Dow and Gold Page.

The Yahoo Finance five day ongoing chart of USD to EUR (USDEUR=X) relative to GLD.

The ongoing MSN Finance chart of GLD relative to overall US Stock market, VTI.

The 5 day ongoing Yahoo Finance chart of the USD/JPY relative to the EUR/JPY.

For reference and insight in the ongoing Gold and US Dollar, 321Gold.com, provides good daily reference with both charts and timely articles.

Although, there is a bullish cross in the US Dollar chart; and a bearish cross in the gold chart, I believe the dollar will capitulate; and gold arise the victor to rule currency trade world wide.

Yes it's reasonable to believe that the Dollar is topping out: the day off Peak Dollar is fast approaching. As stocks fall from here, risk aversion will manifest to being long the US Dollar. I fully expect the USD/JPY to sell off from 108.035 as is seen in this on going FXStreet chart of the USD/JPY, aiding in the fall of the Dollar.

And I am hoping that the EUR/JPY will rise from 152.62 as is seen in this ongoing FXStreet chart of the EUR/JPY.

If the EUR/JPY continues to fall lower this week from 152.62, which would come from trader reaction to Trichet' remarks due out tomorrow, then it will likely mean decimation for the gold.

It's unfortunate that we live in a world that is now driven by the currency traders, and their interplay with central bank rates. This interplay once benefited gold, but in a world of deflationary concerns, currency leverag is taking gold sharply lower.

The trouble in the world financial system stems largely from the 0.5% interest rate loans that the "well connected" currency and stock traders get from the Bank of Japan.

Stockcharts.com shows the EUR/JPY to be 1.52 today August 9, 2008; it is likely to bounce higher from here: in as much, as I own gold coins, and am suggesting others invest in gold, we need to see a rise from 1.52.

My Investment Maxim Is Two Fold
Sell at market tops; buy at market bottoms.

In a bull market be a bull; in a bear market be a bear. In a bull market, one buys on dips; in a bear market, one sells into strength.

Please understand that I am not a licensed investment professional, I am a low income blogger who writes to document the investment demand for gold, the soon coming enforcement of the Security and Prosperity Partnership, the SPP, and the Liquidation Thesis. I have a very limited portfolio consisting of some SKF, and few gold coins in the sock drawer. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment decision.

The Investment Application
We are definitely in a bear stock market, therefore I recommend the use a trust account to
1) buy 200% inverse of the financial sector SKF
2) sell short the guarantors: MBI, ABK;
3) sell short the suretors: RDN, MTG, SUR, AGO, SCA,
4) sell short homebuilders: XHB,

And I recommend the purchase of gold at BullionVault.com and GoldMoney.com as protection against systemic risk events -- the risk of a financial marketplace breakdown.

And for corporations the purchase of DXKSX in as much as we are in a market bottom at 13.25.

A major reason for for buying gold is that the former well springs of liquidity, the USD/JPY and the EUR/JPY, have now gone toxic on risk aversion to inflation, debt and decreased profit and growth opportunity.

These currency pairs will now be the 'saws of destruction' working to cut asunder fiat wealth; and in the process of sawing, gold will fall out as the world's currency and measure and means of garnering and preserving wealth.

In as much as gold relative to US Stocks, GLD:VTI continues to stay above 1.15, there is an measurable ongoing investment demand for gold.

The investment demand for gold is seen in the 3 month ongoing Yahoo Finance chart of GLD compared to GDX, XME, SLX, EEM, SLV. The story here two fold: First, the unwinding yen carry trade, FXE:FXY, has caused disinvestment from the natural resource stocks. And second, disinvestment from commodity currencies, the Euro, FXE, the Australian Dollar, FXA, and the Canadian Dollar, FXC, has caused disinvestment from the emerging markets as risk aversion has grown to being invested long, due to rising producer price inflation, diminished growth prospects, and the level two and level three assets at banks and investment bankers ... GLD, GDX, XME, SLX, EEM, SLV

And the investment demand for gold is communicated in the three month on going Yahoo finance comparison of the gold ETF, GLD, to the commodities ETF, RJI, and the oil ETF, USO .... three month GLD, RJI and USO

West Texas Intermediate Crude, $WTIC, closed at 106.00; which is approximately near the level in Rick Pendergraft article How the Government’s Short-Selling Ban Killed Oil Prices.

The Potential Of Systemic Risk Is The Most Compelling Reason For Investment In Gold
Systemic Risk potentialities abound ... yes little fires continually burn and can become monster blazes that burn entire nations, and even the world financial system to the ground ... that is why one should be invested in gold.

Here is just one of many systemic risk potentials that exists at the current time:

Oliver Biggadike and Shannon D. Harrington of Bloomberg in article Fannie, Freddie Credit-Default Swaps May Be Settled report that investors may be forced to settle contracts protecting more than $1.4 trillion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds against default after the U.S. seized control of the companies in a bid to bolster the housing market.

Thirteen ``major'' dealers of credit-default swaps agreed ``unanimously'' that the rescue constitutes a credit event triggering payment or delivery of the companies' bonds, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said in a memo obtained by Bloomberg News today. Market makers for the privately traded contracts will discuss how to settle them in a conference call at 11 a.m. in New York, the document said.

``This is a big deal,'' said Sarah Percy-Dove, head of credit research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management in Sydney. ``The market is not experienced at settling a credit event for a name of this size, so it is a bit of an unknown.

Systemic Risk events do happen. Rob Kirby writing in Financial Sense.com article The Stars are Aligning - But For What? writes that Fannie and Freddie were finally nationalized on Sunday, September 7, 2008 – a date that may very well live in infamy. Shareholders of the mortgage behemoth mortgage giants have been effectively wiped out ... yes wiped out by the US Government ... that's why I recommend gold.

Summary Comments
Capitalism and sound investing opportunities died this last weekend as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were nationalized, state corporate rule now governs commerce, finance, trade and investment.

As Jesse relates succinctly == Word For The Day: State Capitalism

This alone should be the reason for investing in gold.

Contrary Cautions Come From Holistic Forex
Trade Team Update by Holistic Forex relates:

To be honest I'm not even really sure what to say about all these events happening and resulting chaos in the markets. You can read some really great articles at the Financial Times if you're not able to watch the markets all day long.

For the rest of us that do this full-time I don't see a whole lot of mystery here and things are very self-explanatory. We knew this madness was coming and we know it's not going away anytime soon.

Tomorrow

I hope I'm not catching the market madness that's going around the trade rooms of the world but I'm sensing there's a high probability the euro takes another extended leg down between tomorrow and Friday.

Tomorrow's big event is Trichet of course. He speaks right as London opens and he will be testify before a government panel on economic and monetary issues. This certainly puts the euro at tremendous risk because as we talked about before last week's rate meeting, I do not see there is much Trichet can say to help the euro. And that the higher probability is that his comments will hurt the euro. Same potential holds true tomorrow.

The other factor tomorrow will be the Crude Inventories. I'm still calling $100 or lower crude this week. We dipped below $102 and I believe if the data prints negative for crude that we can hit the target.

Gold certainly has more room to drop. Just a few days ago gold was able to hold onto gains above $800 but this is no longer the case. Should crude break the $100 level this could easily spark a strong sell-off in gold and then in the euro. Be advised.

EUR/USD

Today's housing data printed strong to the downside, exceeding my forecast. There was almost no move against the dollar based on this abysmal housing news. It's signs like that keeping me shorting the euro because it takes away any potential to form a bottom.

The weakness in commodities will also prevent the euro from finding a bottom. Simply put, the euro will not stop falling until crude and gold stop selling off. If crude has to test the low $90's or high $80's, the euro is just going to keep falling with it until crude buyers emerge and the bulls are firmly in control of the game.

As far as trading goes, I've been using price action to make a certain move and it's been paying out beautifully. Basically, whenever we retrace back up close to a round number, I short. For example, on Sunday I shorted at 1.4406 and 1.4412. Today I shorted at 1.4195 and 1.4216. I've been taking those kinds of trades on those types of moves for the past week and a half and as I said, the results are been awesome. You may want to look for those opportunities as long as these types of conditions continue in the short-term.

Tomorrow's trading is looking to be volatile in all markets across the board. We could easily see another extended move with the euro tomorrow as all the big players to continue to re-position themselves, liquidate positions, suffer margin calls, redirect money flows, and pour liquidity into certain sectors.

My trades will be nothing but euro shorts for the next 20-hours unless the market shows me otherwise. If I see opportunities on other pairs like the yen I may even short those especially if the equities market moves in a way to cause pairs like the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY to fall.

More Caution Comes From Afraid To Trade
Corey Rosenbloom relates in article Foreign Currencies Plunge that intermarket analysis frequently begins with the US Dollar Index as a base to build the structure for cross-market trends, and the Dollar Index trend must be declared officially as “up” since forming higher lows, higher highs, and breaking above these levels and the weekly moving averages. A positive moving average cross (which now looks inevitable) would be a further confirmation of a trend reversal underway.

Continue to watch currencies even if you’re not specifically a FOREX trader - you may pick up on insights you may have missed before!

Speaking of FOREX, Adam Hewison of the Market Club released a brief video on signals in the FOREX market entitled “FOREX in 90 seconds” which shows a brief overview of the Market Club strategies (using multiple time frames) and trading signals - it’s definately worth considering.

Suggested Reading On The Potential Of The Response To A Systemic Risk Event
Soon Coming Enforcement Of The SPP Places Ones Investments At Risk

The Investment Demand For Gold Grows As The Dollar Rises On News Of The Freddie And Fannie Bailout

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Since August 15, 2008, there has been a measurable investment demand for gold, $GOLD, even as the US Dollar, $USD, has risen; this even more so since the US government has taken over Freddie Mac, FRE, and Fannie Mae, FNM .... $GOLD closed at $802 ... $USD closed at 79.47

The MSN Finance chart of DGP, compared to FXE, FXY, UUP, TLT, since August 15, 2008, communicates that both gold and the Dollar are up, as the yen carry trade, the EUR/JPY, better called the euro carry trade, has unwound; and the chart communicates that US Treasuries will likely sell off in response to the bail out of the two mortgage guarantors .... DGP, compared to FXE, FXY, UUP, TLT.

The 3 month ongoing Yahoo Finance chart of DGP, compared to FXE, FXY, UUP, TLT, relates the very same thing: an up trending gold and dollar, since August 15, 2008, and an unwinding yen carry trade, with US Government Bonds likely topping out in value ... DGP, compared to FXE, FXY, UUP, TLT.

The ongoing 5 day Yahoo Finance Chart of $TNX, compared to $TYX, shows the bond market place has declared a defacto interest rate hike in response to the Statement of James Lockhart director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO, who will head the Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA, being created to oversee mortgage backers Fannie Mae, FNM, and Freddie Mac, FRE ... ^TNX compared to ^TYX

Stockcharts.com shows $TNX turning up today from a spiked bottom... $TNX ... Mortgage rates and all interest rates will be heading higher now.

Today is a watershed day in investment history: we have likely reached Peak Treasuries.

The rewards of mortgage securitization have been privatized; and the losses of home ownership socialized to the public, investors and the world at large: the US Taxpayer is now on the hook for the debt of the two mortgage underwriters.

A run on the US Treasuries will likely now commence as investors gain greater insight and clarity into the true and ongoing cost of the nationalization of the US mortgage industry.

US Treasuries, TLT, rose to a almost a new weekly high. The zero coupon mutual bond fund, BTTRX, likewise ... TLT weekly and BTTRX weekly

Here is TLT Daily ... TLT Daily closed at 95.88 on September 8, 2008.

Yet the futures market place treasuries, $USB, has turned down. And the ratio of US Treasuries, to futures Treasuries, TLT:$USB, suggests that the cash market place in government bonds is over-extended, that is overbought ... TLT:$USB

The Resourceful Bear says: "TLT ain't no life boat of safety ... it's a looming Titanic!!" Yes the futures market investors have abandoned ship.

DXKLX Direxion 10 Year Note Bull 2.5 Fund will be going down ... DXKLX

DXKSX Direxion 10 Year Note Bear 2.5 Fund will be going up. DXKSX

The homebuilding, banking and value stocks rose today.
the Homebuilding, XHB,
the Regional Banks, IAT,
the Multicap Value, FAB,
the Large Cap Value, FTA
the Small Cap Value, RZV
the Russell 2000 value, IWN.

The 3 month ongoing Yahoo Finance chart of IAT, compared to FAB, FTA, RZV, IWN shows how the value stocks are driven by the banking sector. .... IAT, FAB, FTA, RZV, IWN

The one year chart of value stocks shows how the small cap value stocks were terrifically injured by the Citigroup CDO Bust of October 8, 2007. Given the failure of securitization and financialization, one can truly say we have reached the end of value investing ... IAT, FAB, FTA, RZV, IWN

The growth stocks, that is the NASDAQ stocks, QQQQ, $NDX, continued to fall lower; it closed at 43.31; which is below support at 44 ... QQQQ

The NASDAQ was led lower today by:
the broad line semiconductors, CY, which is set for a massive fall lower.
the semiconductor memory chips, SNDK which manifested a lollipop hanging man candlestick
the communication stocks, RIMM, AAPL, QCOM All of which are now perched at the edge of massive head and should patterns in their weekly charts.
the biotechnology stocks, XBI, This ETF is also on the edge of a massive head and shoulders pattern.

It's the end of a growth age; specifically the end of a bullish age of prosperity in the Nasdaq 100, QTEC. When one one compares QTEC, to SMH in the two year ongoing Yahoo Finance chart, one has to ask, "which of these two are going to fall faster"? And by implication which is a better investment, SSG or QID, as seen in the three month ongoing Yahoo Finance chart? Personally. I think QID will outperform SSG from now on out.

The S&P, $SPX, SPY, manifested a massive lollipop hanging man candlestick at its 50 day moving average; thus giving the clarion call to the end of a dollar driven stock rally ... SPY

The Dow, DIA, $INDU, manifested a kind of dragonfly candlestick ... DIA

The Russell 2000, IWM, $RUT, manifested a harami at 72.48, which is at the apex of a 'broadening top pattern' that goes back to May 1, 2008; all I can say is "lookout below" ... IWM

The Dollar Rally in stocks ran up Autozone, AZO, America's Car Mart and Dollar Thrifty Auto Group; these are now terrific short selling opportunities .... AZO, CRMT, DTG.

Petsmart, PETM, has been a discretionary and retail leader in the Dollar Stock rally that began July 14, 2008 when the yen carry traders sold oil to take profits and bought financial, homebuilding, retail, biotechnology, consumer, retail, and health care stocks ... PETM

Consumer pharmaceutical company Johnson and Johnson, JNJ, has been a dollar stock rally leader as has Walmart, WMT ... JNJ and WMT

UUP has gone parabolic up; and today manifested a gravestone doji; this indicates a market top is coming in the US Dollar, that is, $USD .... UUP closed at 24.56 in a gravestone doji and $USD closed at 79.47

The battle between the US Dollar and gold can be followed in the ongoing 5 day Yahoo Finance of UUP compared to GLD.

And the battle can be followed on the INO.com Dollar, Dow and Gold Page as well.

For reference and insight in the ongoing Gold and US Dollar, Kitco.com provides good reference.

Although, there is a bullish cross in the US Dollar chart; and a bearish cross in the gold chart, I believe the dollar will capitulate; and gold arise the victor to rule currency trade world wide.

Yes it's reasonable to believe that the Dollar is topping out: the day off Peak Dollar is fast approaching. As stocks fall from here, risk aversion will manifest to being long the US Dollar. I fully expect the USD/JPY to sell off from 108.035 as is seen in this on going FXStreet chart of the USD/JPY, aiding in the fall of the Dollar.

And I am hoping that the EUR/JPY will rise from 152.62 as is seen in this ongoing FXStreet chart of the EUR/JPY.

Stockcharts.com shows the EUR/JPY to be 1.54 ... FXE:FXY is 1.54 on August 8, 2008.

Here is ongoing five day Yahoo Finance chart of the EUR/JPY

My Investment Maxim Is Two Fold
Sell at market tops; buy at market bottoms.

In a bull market be a bull; in a bear market be a bear. In a bull market, one buys on dips; in a bear market, one sells into strength.

The Investment Application
We are still in a bear stock market, therefore I recommend the use a trust account to
1) buy 200% inverse of the financial sector SKF; The spike down in SKF to 103.24 is a buy signal.
2) sell short the guarantors: MBI, ABK; MBIA shows a dark cloud cover candlestick; and Ambac a massive lollipop.
3) sell short the suretors: RDN, MTG, SUR, AGO, SCA, Radian Group manifested bearish engulfing today.
4) sell short homebuilders: XHB, MTH, BZH, HOV, SPF, TOL The homebuilders ETF, XHB, closed in a massive long legged doji, communicating the active battle between bulls and bears.
5) sell short DEE as it is terrifically overbought; sell DEE at 29.41 ... DEE

I recommend a small short position in USD/JPY in a Forex account, if one can obtain a put above 108.

And I recommend the purchase of gold at BullionVault.com and GoldMoney.com as protection against systemic risk events -- the risk of a financial marketplace breakdown.

And in as much as we are in a market bottom for DXKSX at 13.40, for corporations, I recommend a purchase of DXKSX.

The other reason for buying gold is that the former well springs of liquidity, the USD/JPY and the EUR/JPY, have now gone toxic on risk aversion to inflation, debt and decreased profit and growth opportunity.

These currency pairs will now be the 'saws of destruction' working to cut asunder fiat wealth; and in the process of sawing, gold will fall out as the world's currency and measure and means of garnering and preserving wealth.

In as much as gold relative to US Stocks, GLD:VTI, continues to stay above 1.15, there is an measurable ongoing investment demand for gold ... GLD:VTI.

The investment demand for gold is seen in the 3 month ongoing Yahoo Finance chart of GLD compared to GDX, XME, SLX, EEM, SLV .... GLD, GDX, XME, SLX, EEM, SLV. The story here two fold: First, the unwinding yen carry trade, FXE:FXY, has caused disinvestment from the natural resource stocks. And second, disinvestment from commodity currencies, the Euro, FXE, the Australian Dollar, FXA, and the Canadian Dollar, FXC, has caused disinvestment from the emerging markets as risk aversion has grown to being invested long, due to rising producer price inflation, diminished growth prospects, and the level two and level three assets at banks and investment bankers.

And the investment demand for gold is communicated in the three month on going Yahoo finance comparison of the gold ETF, GLD, to the commodities ETF, RJI, and the oil ETF, USO ... GLD, RJI and USO.

Moise Levi has a helpful chart analysis on gold; and relates "Conclusion ; not a buyer yet ; let us first see another higher lows first, mid to long term trend is down".

West Texas Intermediate Crude, $WTIC, closed at 106.25; which is approximately near the level in Rick Pendergraft article How the Government’s Short-Selling Ban Killed Oil Prices.

The HUI Indexed precious metal mining shares, that is the gold stocks started to disconnect from the price of gold in November 2007 and even more severely so in March 2008 ... ^HUI and GLD ... March fall in the HUI Shares

Kondratieff Winter Has Set In
When I look at the Eddy Elfenbein chart article September 9, 2008 30 Years of Fannie Mae and reflect that a year ago the prices were closer to 70, it is clear that and age of prosperity that came via securitization and financialization is over.

Kondratieff Winter has set in. Socially responsible investing is sure to fail; it like value investing and growth investing is part of a bygone era. The ETF iShares KLD 400 Social Index, DSI, is an excellent metric of green investing; but investing here is sure to drive one to financial ruin. The lollipop hanging man candlesticks in DSI weekly warn the investor to flee to gold and to short selling ... DSI Weekly

And I present the coffin investment, that is TDX Independence 2040 ETF, TDV, which seeks investment perfromance of the Zacks 2040 Lifecycle Index. The longer one stays invested here, the sooner one will NOT be able to even afford a coffin ... TDV

The Potential Of Systemic Risk Is A Compelling Reason For Investment In Gold
Systemic Risk potentialities abound ... yes little fires continually burn and can become monster blazes that burn entire nations, and even the world financial system to the ground ... that is why one should be invested in gold.

Here is just one of many systemic risk potentials that exist today:

Oliver Biggadike and Shannon D. Harrington of Bloomberg in article Fannie, Freddie Credit-Default Swaps May Be Settled report that investors may be forced to settle contracts protecting more than $1.4 trillion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds against default after the U.S. seized control of the companies in a bid to bolster the housing market.

Thirteen ``major'' dealers of credit-default swaps agreed ``unanimously'' that the rescue constitutes a credit event triggering payment or delivery of the companies' bonds, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said in a memo obtained by Bloomberg News today. Market makers for the privately traded contracts will discuss how to settle them in a conference call at 11 a.m. in New York, the document said.

``This is a big deal,'' said Sarah Percy-Dove, head of credit research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management in Sydney. ``The market is not experienced at settling a credit event for a name of this size, so it is a bit of an unknown.

Systemic Risk events do happen. Rob Kirby writing in Financial Sense.com article The Stars are Aligning - But For What? writes that Fannie and Freddie were finally nationalized on Sunday, September 7, 2008 – a date that may very well live in infamy. Shareholders of the mortgage behemoth mortgage giants have been effectively wiped out ... yes wiped out by the US Government ... that's why I recommend gold.

Summary Comments For Today
Capitalism and sound investing died this weekend as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were nationalized, state corporate rule now governs commerce, finance, trade and investment.

As Jesse relates: Word For The Day: State Capitalism

The Russell 2000 Finally Falls Below 72 ... The Dollar Rally In Stocks Is Over

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Financial market report for Friday, 5. September 2008

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Three Special Remarks

First, this report is based soley on information available up until 5:00 PM and does not give allowance for rapidly rising after hours stock market prices during the weekend due to the US government bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. I expect US stock prices to gap higher on opening on Monday September 8, 2008

Second, these remarks of Tim Knight are totally helpful from his article Thank Hank where Mr. Knight remarks: "The news looming over all of us now is the government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It is reported this would be the largest bailout in the nation's history. As an American, this saddens me. It saddens me to see the government of our country turn its back on true capitalism and whore the nation's treasury for the sake of their friends. This is not how a free market behaves. Free markets - - true free markets - - are natural, healthy, and self-cleansing. Sometimes the cleansing process is painful. But what Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke are doing is destroying the country's future for the short-term benefit of ingratiating themselves to their small body of constituents.

Having said that, as a bear, I couldn't be happier with this news. As readers here know, last week was sensational for me. But I got out of my index puts since I felt they had done their duty, and I wanted to see indexes fight their way back to their failure levels before re-entering those positions. But what would create such an opportunity? What new reason would the bulls be given to buy? Well, my friends, the reason is here. Straight from God in heaven above. Another bailout. Another white horse. Thanks, Hank. I'm not the patient sort, and this is going to let me reload without the bother of waiting around.

Third, the remarks of Tim Knight in article The Weekend Update I guess the big news hitting the wires after the close is a looming FNM/FRE bailout. That's perfect. I want to do a comprehensive post, and I won't get to it until the wee hours of Saturday morning. C'mon back then. Until then, I dunno. Go have a beer or something. I'm buyin'.

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Stockcharts.com chart of the Russell 2000, IWM shows trading below 72; it closed at $71.64.

The SmallCapNetwork Editor in article Chart Support Lines Broken For All Indices shows the S&P 500, SPY, $SPX, and the Russell 2000, IWM, $RUT, have broken support and remarks now that the damage has been done (support lines have been broken) thanks to retail and employment data, the market will have a tough time repairing itself quickly. I think tomorrow and perhaps even early next week will be mildly positive sessions, and then, WHAM! again. Off we go back to lows from a couple of months ago.

Mr. Carolan in article A New Month shows a chart of the eMini S&P with objective of 1185.

The 3 month ongoing chart ot the Russell 2000 value shares compared to the growth shares, shows the growth share, IWO, falling more than the value shares, IWN.

Gold, GLD, was up more than UUP today.

Let's hope that the gold ETF, GLD, can overcome the bear cross that appeared in its chart today.

Gold, $GOLD, closed down just a hair at $802 today; unfortunately its chart shows a bear cross as well. Kitco.com provides the ongoing contract price of $GOLD.

Jack Chan of JC's Buy And Sell Signals, provides this chart of the US Dollar, $USD, w