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The Resourceful Bear Blog

Peak Dollar Is Likely Occuring The Week Ending August 15, 2008

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Peak Dollar Is Likely Occuring The Week Ending August 15, 2008

Introduction
The US Dollar rose to 76.79 as the Plunge Protection Team, PPT, went long the financial sector to take the stock market up on "terrifically bearish" news.

Peak Dollar is approaching ... options expires this week ... perhaps today was Peak Dollar.

Wealth is preserved via investing in gold and some limited amount of short selling.

Stocks rose today
The ongoing Yahoo Finance five day chart of the financials, IYF, compared to the the consumer discretionary stocks, VCR, and the S&P shows the rise in ths stock market: 3% for the financials and discretionary and 1% for the S&P.

The ongoing real-time Yahoo Finance 5 day chart of the Russell 2000

The ongoing real-time MSN 5 day chart of the Russell 2000

The ongoing real time Yahoo Finance 5 day chart of the S&P, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000.

The ongoing real time Yahoo Finance chart of the Banks, KBE: banks rose 2% today.

Home Depot, HD, showed market leadership rising 2.5%.

A number of financials that are heavily laden with level two assets and level three aseets rose strongly; these include Bank of America, BAC, AIG Insurance, AIG, Lehman Brothers, LEH, Merrill Lynch, MER, Wachovia Bank, WB.

Freddie Mac, FRE, rose strongly while Fannie Mae, FNM, rose trailing behind its peer.

The consumer stocks rose up shartply as well; these included retail, XRT, and consumer discretionary, VCR; as well as Walt Disney, DIS, Starbucks, SBUX, and MacDonalds, MCD.

General Motors, GM, and Ford, F, rose as well.

The Biotechnology ETF, XBI, rose to an ally time high.

The antithesis of the consumer stocks, that is the metal manufactring stocks, XME, fell sharply.

Weekly charts show the stock market to be trading on "thin ice"
Russell 2000 Value, IWN, shows rising price on falling volume. IWN

The overall stock market, VTI, shows rising price on falling volume with long legged doji. VTI

The financial sector, IYF, shows rising price on falling volume with long legged doji IYF

The US Dollar rose strongly in mid-day trading today
The ongoing real-time INO real-time chart of the US $ Index shows a 5PM price of 76.60

The ongoing real-time twenty four hour Kitco.com chart of the US Dollar, $USD

The ongoing real-time Yahoo Finance 5 day chart of UUP

The ongoing real-time FXStreet.com horly chart of the USD/JPY shows a price of 109.9650. The chart shows a bear cross indicating the USD/JPY will not be available to take the US Dollar higher.

The Stockcharts.com daily chart of UUP shows a close at 23.75.

The Stockcharts.com end of day chart of the US Dollar shows a close at $76.69. $USD.

Note the closing price just mentioned of 76.69; it is a little higher than yesterday's price of 76.28 seen here in Lamdars's US Dollar Index ($USD) - 08-13-2008 article: a current market top is approaching in the US Dollar.

Gold fell lower today
The ongoing Yahoo Finance 5 day chart of the gold ETF, GLD shows a close at 79.35.

The Stockcharts.com daily chart of Gold shows a close at $806. $GOLD.

Today was an abeyance not an abatement
An Elliott Wave 3 Down has commenced in the EUR/JPY; and also an Elliott Wave 3 Down has started in the USD/JPY; these cannot and will not be stopped; they can only be delayed for a short time.

The Elliott Wave 3s are the most sweeping of all economic long waves; they bring Kondratieff Summer and Kondratieff Winter.

The world has entered Kondratieff Winter with Peak Debt, Peak Currencies having occurred.

All that remains is Peak Dollar -- Perhaps that occurred today.

Today's US Dollar bullishness opens up a safe bear market investing opportunity
The actions of the Plunge Protection Team are actually helpful, in that they provide an opportunity for one to enter into a wealth preservation strategy at a profitable entry point.

I recommend that one be invested one-third in the DGP, SKF, UXPSX, and FXP with a heavy weighting, very heavy weighting to SKF in a trust account; the mutual fund UXPSX can not by definition be held in a truts account.

And I recommend a two-thirds investment in GoldMoney.com and BullionVault.com to protect one's wealth from mutliple systemic risk event potentialities and the financial dislocations that will come from a war in Iran over its nuclear ambitions.

The ongoing Google Finance monthly chart of DGP, SKF, FXP, UXPSX.

A tsunami of bad economic reports flooded the markets today
Patrick Rucker of Reuters reports that the value of existing U.S. single-family homes in metro areas fell 7.6 percent in the second quarter compared with the same period in 2007 with homes in the West tumbling 17.4 percent, the National Association of Realtors, NAR, said.

Alan Zibel of the Associated Press reports that the 'foreclosure crisis' worsened as US foreclosure filings surge 55 percent.

Martin Crutsinger reports that inflation has jumped to a 17 year high.

Briefing.com reports that initial jobless claims of 450,000 for the week ending August 9, 2008. Though weekly claims fell 10,000, the four-week moving average rose 19,000 to 440,500. The trend reflects a deterioration in the labor market that is going to feed concerns about consumer spending activity.

Commentary on utilities
The wave structure of the utility stocks, VPU, has been like that of the emerging markets, EEM, since June 16, 2008 as seen in this MSN.com comparative chart; the only real difference is that Utilities have been a little bit more bullish than the emerging markets due to the fact they pay a dividend.

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