US Stocks Fall Lower Ending The Dollar Rally On Citigroup Financialization Woes And Fears Fed Is Going To Bailout The GSEs
Tuesday, 19. August 2008, 06:12:19
Financialization woes at Citigroup send bank stocks 4% lower.
Mike Mish Sheldon writing in article Citigroup, UBS Left Holding The Bag reports that the International Herald Tribune is reporting Investors Shun Rights Offer By British Lender and relates that Bradford & Bingley, the biggest buy-to-let mortgage lender in Britain, revealed Monday that its bankers have been left with more than 70 percent of its £400 million rights issue, confirming expectations of a poor take-up by investors.
B&B, which has been hit hard by the credit squeeze, also announced it has hired the former head of rival Alliance & Leicester as its new chief executive.
The B&B rights issue, in which a company raises fresh capital by creating and selling new shares to existing shareholders, was one of several by British banking institutions in recent months as they seek to shore up capital lost by the credit squeeze.
Although B&B's 27.8 percent takeup by investors of the new shares was better than the 8.29 percent achieved by the Halifax Bank of Scotland on its much larger £4 billion rights issue, the B&B offering still left underwriters with around 300 million, or $560 million, of shares.
The underwriters, UBS and Citigroup, C, now have until Friday to offload those shares or become owners.
B&B's rights issue has been more troubled than most, with the lender forced to restructure the offer twice.
It first announced plans to sell some £300 million worth of shares at 82 pence in May, but as its shares fell below that level - and following a profit warning - the lender announced alternative plans to offer cheaper shares and sell a 23 percent stake to Texas Pacific.
It had to switch course again when the U.S. private equity firm backed out of that deal in July, deciding to press on with an enlarged £400 million rights issue at a deeply discounted price of 55 pence per share.
Tougher and tougher to unload offerings.
Nearly every day it is getting tougher to unload debt offerings. Banks are even struggling to refinance their own debt as noted in Banks Scramble To Refinance Long-Term Debt. AIG bonds are trading at disastrous spreads as noted in What Banks Are Likely To Survive?
The credit crunch is alive and well and picking up steam in spite of Bernanke's efforts. Spreads are widening and the cost of raising money is soaring even as treasury yields are stable to declining. This is just what one would expect in deflationary times.
How much longer underwriters are willing to assume such risks, and how much debt investors are willing to own are both coming into question. For now, the deals are still getting done. Don't assume this will always be the case. There is not an infinite supply of bagholders.
Fears that the Fed is going to recapitalize The GSEs sends Fannie 17% lower.
Mike Mish Sheldon reporting in Fannie, Freddie Bailout To Wipe Out Equity Holders reports that Bloomberg is reporting Fannie, Freddie Fall As Barron's Says Bailout Likely.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell to almost 18-year lows in New York trading on concern the government will be forced to bail out the mortgage-finance companies, wiping out common stockholders.
Both Fannie and Freddie slid as much as 12 percent after Barron's said government officials anticipate the companies will fail to raise the equity capital they need, prompting the U.S. Treasury to step in. Fannie is down 82 percent this year. Freddie has fallen 85 percent.
"It is very, very likely to happen before the end of the third quarter," Ajay Rajadhyaksha, the head of fixed income strategy for Barclays Capital Inc., said in an interview. "Without government help, we think there is very little chance of Freddie completing a significant capital raising."
A rescue would include preferred stock with a seniority, dividend preference and convertibility right that would wipe out common stockholders, Barron's reported, citing an unidentified source in the Bush administration. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who received the authority he requested from Congress to help the companies, has said a bailout won't be needed.
"We aren't going to comment on speculation," said a Treasury spokeswoman, Jennifer Zuccarelli. "As the Secretary has said, we have no plans to use these authorities."
Though the Bush administration was looking to Fannie and Freddie to turn around the U.S. housing market and avert a recession, former Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies said, "they really are helping to pull the market down rather than being source of strength at this time."
"They are going to be pressed to raise capital in a very weak market, which is going to make the cost of capital very high for both of these organizations," Bies said in a recent interview on Bloomberg.
So much for the SEC's and the Treasury's effort to manipulate share prices higher so that Fannie and Freddie could raise capital without government assistance.
Fannie Mae Daily Chart Fannie Mae (FNM) nearly tripled in 5 days but has now given every cent back. A new 52 week low was recorded today at $6.47. Freddie Mac (FRE) is back under $5. So much for blatant manipulation efforts.
Woes at investment bankers send investment bankers 4% lower and real estate 2% lower.
CNBC reports in article Financial Crisis Could Get Much Worse, Experts Say that Kotok thinks Merrill Lynch, MER, and other financial companies are at risk of failure as the cost of raising capital soars at a time when the banks need to pay settlements over auction rate securities.
And the article goes on: Kotok agreed that Fannie and Freddie are in jeopardy. "Were it not for government aid and backing they would have already had to declare bankruptcy. Their portfolios have problems," he said.
"You see one brick at a time in the financial problem area become addressed. Here's Lehman trying to divest real estate holdings in a falling real estate market," he added.
Home builders, which have been at the forefront of the Dollar driven consumer rally fall sharply .
Homebuilders, XHB, fell 4%.
The EUR/JPY continued to fall lower; and the USD/JPY began to fall today
The Google Finance chart of IYF, XHB, DGP, FXP and EEV evidences two important investment facts:
1) that the EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, is falling further and unwinding the yen carry trade
2) that the USD/JPY is falling taking the US Dollar, $USD, lower.
The EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, is falling -- the yen carry trade is unwinding again today.
FXP +4.5%
EEV +4.5%
The USD/JPY is now just today falling -- The Dollar Rally ended today, as is seen in the fact that the recently soaring stocks fell and gold rose: XHB, -4%, KBE, -4%, KCE, -3%, IYF -3%, XHB -4%, and DGP +4%.
Yes gold up and dollar down! The Dollar is now history as a rising currency
This means that an individual or a corporation does not, that is should not, have a dollar denominated portfolio, with the exception of 100% and 200% inverse ETFs.
The greatest investment story never told is that the currency traders move the stock markets; and today they moved the dollar lower.
The two well springs of liquidity that were used to inflate stock value have now run dry
The first well spring of liquidity was the Federal Reserve with Alan Greenspan provision of easy credit -- he was 'The Purveyor of Credit Liquidity'. And then most recently Ben Bernanke dramatically lowering the interest rates and providing TAF, TSLF and PDCF facilities.
The TAF Rally which began March 18, 2008 failed two months later on May 19, 2008.
The Fed of late has increased TAF and its effect is now not even felt as the Banks are now beginning to fall again.
The only thing that TAF does is spread risk to US taxpayers and the banking system as a whole. TAF is like Ebola; its contagious and causes an ever widening spreading of finanical death.
Bernanke went the wrong way with interest rates in 2007; he should have increased them and let the banks such as Indymac Bank fail sooner than they did. And he went in the wrong way even more by providing TAF. The result is that I call him "wrong way Bernanke".
Yes it is as former chief IMF economist Kenneth Rogoff said in Reuters interview "Cutting interest rates is going to lead to a lot of inflation in the next few years in the United States".
The second well spring of liquidity, that has been used to drive stock values higher, has been the 0.5% Bank of Japan lending window.
One has to ask where did all the money come from to speculate in driving up the CRB commodities, and especially the oil?
Answer, the money came from the BoJ lending window. The yen carry traders sold the CRB, RJI, and oil, USO, on July 14, 2008, to take profits and went long the US banking stocks, and now today they are disinvesting in response to the multiciplicity of woes outlined above.
A Deflationary Hurricane is coming to those whose personal or corporate portfolio is invested in dollars, just like a Deflationary Hurricane came to those who were invested in the commodity currencies, of the Euro, FXE, the Yen, FXY, the Australian Dollar, FXA, and the Canadian Dollar, FXC.
The Dollar Rally that began July 15, 2008 and ended today, is really an extension of a consumer stock rally that began June 23, 2008 as disinvestment began as yen carry traders sold out of the emerging markets, EEM, and the BRICS, EEB
Here is the 3 month Yahoo Finance chart of consumer stocks Autozone, AZO, and Johnson and Johnson, JNJ, where one can see these two consumer stocks rising first as the carry traders exited the BRICS on June 23, 2008; and then when the carry traders exited oil on July 15, 2008. 3 Month Chart.
And now in the 5 day Yahoo Finance chart, Autozone falls 1% and Johnson and Johnson falls 0.35% ... Five Day Chart
Johnson and Johnson is a great consumer stock; but the lollipop in JHN's Stockcharts.com chart says it's all over; the age of prosperity and investing long is done and over.
The only difference between Autozone and Johnson and Johnson is going to be their rate of decay: Autozone is going to fall quickly, it makes a great short selling candidate.
Details of the fall of the US Dollar
Both the chart of the Russell 2000, IWM, and the Nasdaq, QQQQ, show almost an 'island reversal' candlestick.
The chart of the Proshares 200% inverse of the financial sector, SKF, shows a MACD cross-over providing a buying signal; it closed up 5% today from a spiked bearish harami bottom on Monday of last week.
Retail leader Home Depot, HD, fell 2%; consumer discretionary leader, The Childrens Place Retail Stores, PLCE, fell 3%.
We are witnessing the passage of 'Peak Dollar', which occurred last Friday, August 15, 2008
EUR/JPY ... FXE:FXY
The ongoing real-time Stockcharts.com chart of FXE:FXY closed lower today at 1.6250.
USD/JPY
The ongoing real-time FXStreet.com hourly chart of the USD/JPY traded lower as in this snapshot image: USD/JPY with value at 110.1150
Here is Alex Chernomordin's chart which shows the 110.50. The USD/JPY pair has traded lower this session after straddling the 110.50 level for a couple of days. The pair has traded back to the 50% retracement level noted below on the daily chart. We will be following this pair closely heading into the end of the summer, where more real monies will be showing up on the equity side of the equation, possibly dictating the direction for the pair.
Here is the Action Forex.com chart; note the decreasing MACD and decreasing RSI; this tells me that its all over for the USD/JPY and the US Dollar.
PFXGlobal shows a dragonfly doji, and fall lower today in the chart of the USD/JPY.
US Dollar
The ongoing real-time INO real-time chart of the US $ Index.
The ongoing real-time twenty four hour Kitco.com chart of the US Dollar, $USD.
Stockcharts.com shows the US Dollar, $USD, closed lower at 77.10. $USD
The ongoing real-time Yahoo Finance 5 day chart of UUP closed lower at 23.86
Gold arose today as the measure and means of wealth preservation
Charts show an investment demand for gold arose today as the Dollar Rally ended with the US stock market, VTI, falling lower as the USD/JPY fell in value; and as disinvestment came strongly out of stocks in the emerging markets, EEM, and China, FXI, as the yen carry trade, EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, fell below support at 1.630 to close at 1.625.
Gold rose above all other forms of wealth today ... gold is now sovereign over all forms of wealth
Gold rose above US Stocks GLD:VTI ..... GLD:VTI ... 1.22
Gold rose relative to the world stocks GLD:EFA ..... GLD:EFA ... 1.25
Gold has risen in value relative to oil GLD:USO ..... GLD:USO ... 0.86
Gold arose as the world's currency today
Gold rose in terms of US Dollars GLD ..... GLD 78.80 which is $gold price of $799.
Gold rose relative to the currency ETF, GLD:DBV ..... GLD:DBV 3.02
Gold rose relative to the Euro, GLD:FXE ... GLD:FXE 0.535
Investment Application
I suggest that one read Investment Strategies For Peak Dollar as how to prosper from the investment sea change that has occurred where gold is now the defacto means of garnering and preserving wealth.
The article devlopes the concept that individual and coporate wealth can only be maintained by a combined strategy of short selling and investing in gold.
An individual or a corporation can have massive amounts of cash, but as the fall of the Euro documents, in just one month, over over 50% of its gains over the last eleven months, have been wiped out by the yen carry traders selling the EUR/JPY in the currency markets.
Soon the US Dollar will loose value as the USD/JPY falls lower.
Soon gold is going to rise as all the world's currencies go into a death spiral lower together.
The other major factor for owing gold is the risk of multiple systemic risk events; when these do occur, gold will become quite valuable.
Almost without exception the investment experts see gold completely different than I do.
I always suggest that one consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision.
Here is what the professional Austrian Economist Mike Mish Sheldon said today: "We think the dollar's move back towards fair valuation is still in its infancy, but the market looks over-extended in the very short-term so some consolidation is likely over the coming 1-3 weeks."
Mike Mish Sheldon writing in article Citigroup, UBS Left Holding The Bag reports that the International Herald Tribune is reporting Investors Shun Rights Offer By British Lender and relates that Bradford & Bingley, the biggest buy-to-let mortgage lender in Britain, revealed Monday that its bankers have been left with more than 70 percent of its £400 million rights issue, confirming expectations of a poor take-up by investors.
B&B, which has been hit hard by the credit squeeze, also announced it has hired the former head of rival Alliance & Leicester as its new chief executive.
The B&B rights issue, in which a company raises fresh capital by creating and selling new shares to existing shareholders, was one of several by British banking institutions in recent months as they seek to shore up capital lost by the credit squeeze.
Although B&B's 27.8 percent takeup by investors of the new shares was better than the 8.29 percent achieved by the Halifax Bank of Scotland on its much larger £4 billion rights issue, the B&B offering still left underwriters with around 300 million, or $560 million, of shares.
The underwriters, UBS and Citigroup, C, now have until Friday to offload those shares or become owners.
B&B's rights issue has been more troubled than most, with the lender forced to restructure the offer twice.
It first announced plans to sell some £300 million worth of shares at 82 pence in May, but as its shares fell below that level - and following a profit warning - the lender announced alternative plans to offer cheaper shares and sell a 23 percent stake to Texas Pacific.
It had to switch course again when the U.S. private equity firm backed out of that deal in July, deciding to press on with an enlarged £400 million rights issue at a deeply discounted price of 55 pence per share.
Tougher and tougher to unload offerings.
Nearly every day it is getting tougher to unload debt offerings. Banks are even struggling to refinance their own debt as noted in Banks Scramble To Refinance Long-Term Debt. AIG bonds are trading at disastrous spreads as noted in What Banks Are Likely To Survive?
The credit crunch is alive and well and picking up steam in spite of Bernanke's efforts. Spreads are widening and the cost of raising money is soaring even as treasury yields are stable to declining. This is just what one would expect in deflationary times.
How much longer underwriters are willing to assume such risks, and how much debt investors are willing to own are both coming into question. For now, the deals are still getting done. Don't assume this will always be the case. There is not an infinite supply of bagholders.
Fears that the Fed is going to recapitalize The GSEs sends Fannie 17% lower.
Mike Mish Sheldon reporting in Fannie, Freddie Bailout To Wipe Out Equity Holders reports that Bloomberg is reporting Fannie, Freddie Fall As Barron's Says Bailout Likely.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell to almost 18-year lows in New York trading on concern the government will be forced to bail out the mortgage-finance companies, wiping out common stockholders.
Both Fannie and Freddie slid as much as 12 percent after Barron's said government officials anticipate the companies will fail to raise the equity capital they need, prompting the U.S. Treasury to step in. Fannie is down 82 percent this year. Freddie has fallen 85 percent.
"It is very, very likely to happen before the end of the third quarter," Ajay Rajadhyaksha, the head of fixed income strategy for Barclays Capital Inc., said in an interview. "Without government help, we think there is very little chance of Freddie completing a significant capital raising."
A rescue would include preferred stock with a seniority, dividend preference and convertibility right that would wipe out common stockholders, Barron's reported, citing an unidentified source in the Bush administration. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who received the authority he requested from Congress to help the companies, has said a bailout won't be needed.
"We aren't going to comment on speculation," said a Treasury spokeswoman, Jennifer Zuccarelli. "As the Secretary has said, we have no plans to use these authorities."
Though the Bush administration was looking to Fannie and Freddie to turn around the U.S. housing market and avert a recession, former Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies said, "they really are helping to pull the market down rather than being source of strength at this time."
"They are going to be pressed to raise capital in a very weak market, which is going to make the cost of capital very high for both of these organizations," Bies said in a recent interview on Bloomberg.
So much for the SEC's and the Treasury's effort to manipulate share prices higher so that Fannie and Freddie could raise capital without government assistance.
Fannie Mae Daily Chart Fannie Mae (FNM) nearly tripled in 5 days but has now given every cent back. A new 52 week low was recorded today at $6.47. Freddie Mac (FRE) is back under $5. So much for blatant manipulation efforts.
Woes at investment bankers send investment bankers 4% lower and real estate 2% lower.
CNBC reports in article Financial Crisis Could Get Much Worse, Experts Say that Kotok thinks Merrill Lynch, MER, and other financial companies are at risk of failure as the cost of raising capital soars at a time when the banks need to pay settlements over auction rate securities.
And the article goes on: Kotok agreed that Fannie and Freddie are in jeopardy. "Were it not for government aid and backing they would have already had to declare bankruptcy. Their portfolios have problems," he said.
"You see one brick at a time in the financial problem area become addressed. Here's Lehman trying to divest real estate holdings in a falling real estate market," he added.
Home builders, which have been at the forefront of the Dollar driven consumer rally fall sharply .
Homebuilders, XHB, fell 4%.
The EUR/JPY continued to fall lower; and the USD/JPY began to fall today
The Google Finance chart of IYF, XHB, DGP, FXP and EEV evidences two important investment facts:
1) that the EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, is falling further and unwinding the yen carry trade
2) that the USD/JPY is falling taking the US Dollar, $USD, lower.
The EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, is falling -- the yen carry trade is unwinding again today.
FXP +4.5%
EEV +4.5%
The USD/JPY is now just today falling -- The Dollar Rally ended today, as is seen in the fact that the recently soaring stocks fell and gold rose: XHB, -4%, KBE, -4%, KCE, -3%, IYF -3%, XHB -4%, and DGP +4%.
Yes gold up and dollar down! The Dollar is now history as a rising currency
This means that an individual or a corporation does not, that is should not, have a dollar denominated portfolio, with the exception of 100% and 200% inverse ETFs.
The greatest investment story never told is that the currency traders move the stock markets; and today they moved the dollar lower.
The two well springs of liquidity that were used to inflate stock value have now run dry
The first well spring of liquidity was the Federal Reserve with Alan Greenspan provision of easy credit -- he was 'The Purveyor of Credit Liquidity'. And then most recently Ben Bernanke dramatically lowering the interest rates and providing TAF, TSLF and PDCF facilities.
The TAF Rally which began March 18, 2008 failed two months later on May 19, 2008.
The Fed of late has increased TAF and its effect is now not even felt as the Banks are now beginning to fall again.
The only thing that TAF does is spread risk to US taxpayers and the banking system as a whole. TAF is like Ebola; its contagious and causes an ever widening spreading of finanical death.
Bernanke went the wrong way with interest rates in 2007; he should have increased them and let the banks such as Indymac Bank fail sooner than they did. And he went in the wrong way even more by providing TAF. The result is that I call him "wrong way Bernanke".
Yes it is as former chief IMF economist Kenneth Rogoff said in Reuters interview "Cutting interest rates is going to lead to a lot of inflation in the next few years in the United States".
The second well spring of liquidity, that has been used to drive stock values higher, has been the 0.5% Bank of Japan lending window.
One has to ask where did all the money come from to speculate in driving up the CRB commodities, and especially the oil?
Answer, the money came from the BoJ lending window. The yen carry traders sold the CRB, RJI, and oil, USO, on July 14, 2008, to take profits and went long the US banking stocks, and now today they are disinvesting in response to the multiciplicity of woes outlined above.
A Deflationary Hurricane is coming to those whose personal or corporate portfolio is invested in dollars, just like a Deflationary Hurricane came to those who were invested in the commodity currencies, of the Euro, FXE, the Yen, FXY, the Australian Dollar, FXA, and the Canadian Dollar, FXC.
The Dollar Rally that began July 15, 2008 and ended today, is really an extension of a consumer stock rally that began June 23, 2008 as disinvestment began as yen carry traders sold out of the emerging markets, EEM, and the BRICS, EEB
Here is the 3 month Yahoo Finance chart of consumer stocks Autozone, AZO, and Johnson and Johnson, JNJ, where one can see these two consumer stocks rising first as the carry traders exited the BRICS on June 23, 2008; and then when the carry traders exited oil on July 15, 2008. 3 Month Chart.
And now in the 5 day Yahoo Finance chart, Autozone falls 1% and Johnson and Johnson falls 0.35% ... Five Day Chart
Johnson and Johnson is a great consumer stock; but the lollipop in JHN's Stockcharts.com chart says it's all over; the age of prosperity and investing long is done and over.
The only difference between Autozone and Johnson and Johnson is going to be their rate of decay: Autozone is going to fall quickly, it makes a great short selling candidate.
Details of the fall of the US Dollar
Both the chart of the Russell 2000, IWM, and the Nasdaq, QQQQ, show almost an 'island reversal' candlestick.
The chart of the Proshares 200% inverse of the financial sector, SKF, shows a MACD cross-over providing a buying signal; it closed up 5% today from a spiked bearish harami bottom on Monday of last week.
Retail leader Home Depot, HD, fell 2%; consumer discretionary leader, The Childrens Place Retail Stores, PLCE, fell 3%.
We are witnessing the passage of 'Peak Dollar', which occurred last Friday, August 15, 2008
EUR/JPY ... FXE:FXY
The ongoing real-time Stockcharts.com chart of FXE:FXY closed lower today at 1.6250.
USD/JPY
The ongoing real-time FXStreet.com hourly chart of the USD/JPY traded lower as in this snapshot image: USD/JPY with value at 110.1150
Here is Alex Chernomordin's chart which shows the 110.50. The USD/JPY pair has traded lower this session after straddling the 110.50 level for a couple of days. The pair has traded back to the 50% retracement level noted below on the daily chart. We will be following this pair closely heading into the end of the summer, where more real monies will be showing up on the equity side of the equation, possibly dictating the direction for the pair.
Here is the Action Forex.com chart; note the decreasing MACD and decreasing RSI; this tells me that its all over for the USD/JPY and the US Dollar.
PFXGlobal shows a dragonfly doji, and fall lower today in the chart of the USD/JPY.
US Dollar
The ongoing real-time INO real-time chart of the US $ Index.
The ongoing real-time twenty four hour Kitco.com chart of the US Dollar, $USD.
Stockcharts.com shows the US Dollar, $USD, closed lower at 77.10. $USD
The ongoing real-time Yahoo Finance 5 day chart of UUP closed lower at 23.86
Gold arose today as the measure and means of wealth preservation
Charts show an investment demand for gold arose today as the Dollar Rally ended with the US stock market, VTI, falling lower as the USD/JPY fell in value; and as disinvestment came strongly out of stocks in the emerging markets, EEM, and China, FXI, as the yen carry trade, EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, fell below support at 1.630 to close at 1.625.
Gold rose above all other forms of wealth today ... gold is now sovereign over all forms of wealth
Gold rose above US Stocks GLD:VTI ..... GLD:VTI ... 1.22
Gold rose relative to the world stocks GLD:EFA ..... GLD:EFA ... 1.25
Gold has risen in value relative to oil GLD:USO ..... GLD:USO ... 0.86
Gold arose as the world's currency today
Gold rose in terms of US Dollars GLD ..... GLD 78.80 which is $gold price of $799.
Gold rose relative to the currency ETF, GLD:DBV ..... GLD:DBV 3.02
Gold rose relative to the Euro, GLD:FXE ... GLD:FXE 0.535
Investment Application
I suggest that one read Investment Strategies For Peak Dollar as how to prosper from the investment sea change that has occurred where gold is now the defacto means of garnering and preserving wealth.
The article devlopes the concept that individual and coporate wealth can only be maintained by a combined strategy of short selling and investing in gold.
An individual or a corporation can have massive amounts of cash, but as the fall of the Euro documents, in just one month, over over 50% of its gains over the last eleven months, have been wiped out by the yen carry traders selling the EUR/JPY in the currency markets.
Soon the US Dollar will loose value as the USD/JPY falls lower.
Soon gold is going to rise as all the world's currencies go into a death spiral lower together.
The other major factor for owing gold is the risk of multiple systemic risk events; when these do occur, gold will become quite valuable.
Almost without exception the investment experts see gold completely different than I do.
I always suggest that one consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision.
Here is what the professional Austrian Economist Mike Mish Sheldon said today: "We think the dollar's move back towards fair valuation is still in its infancy, but the market looks over-extended in the very short-term so some consolidation is likely over the coming 1-3 weeks."
