Stocks Are Poised On The Verge Of A Major Fall Lower
Wednesday, 27. August 2008, 06:56:26
The fate of the stock markets depends on the spigots of liquidity
FX Street reports at 5:33 that the USD/JPY has fallen below its pivot of 109.54 to trade at 109.01; this is bearish for the US Stock market; and is bullish for oil and gold ... USD/JPY trades at 109.54
If the USD/JPY is down below 109.54 on opening, this would be bearish for the dollar driven stocks of the NASDAQ, that is, rimm, adbe, csco, ctsh, orcl, intc, aapl, mcd, hd.
The Nasdaq, QQQQ, is poised at the apex of a broadening top pattern going back to late April; note how there is nothing but thin air between its current 46.43 and 45.00 and 43.50 .... QQQQ
Apple, AAPL, shows much the same fall potential .... AAPL
Ditto for Research in Motion, RIMM .... RIMM
And the trading service and software company Recognia is relating that Research In Motion Ltd has fromed a bearish “Symmetrical Continuation Triangle” chart pattern which indicates that the stock price may fall from the close of $127.03 to the range of $103.00.
Google is on the verge of further breakdown at $474 ... GOOG
The Euro carry trade has severly unwound to an oversold position. I envision the Euro, FXE, to rise; as well as the other commodity currencies, FXA, FXS, and FXC, from their oversold condition. A correction in the Euro carry trade, which some call the yen carry trade, will call the US Dollar and stock markets lower ... Stockcharts.com shows the EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, fell lower to 1.615.
The yen carry trade began to unwind in May 2008, as can be seen in the emerging markets shares, EEM, beginning to fall steadily lower on rising risk aversion to reduced grown opportunities from the resource wealthy emerging countries such as Brazil and the industrious China. Then EEM sold off dramatically in June as the meetings of the May 19, 2008 Bank of Japan meeting were announced that inflation is an investment risk factor. Then came the sell off of oil on July 14, 2008, and the sell off of currencies on July 25, 2008, which was Peak Currencies, which really decimated the emerging markets ... EEM
EFA shows much the same as EEM ... EFA
The Russell 2000, IWM, traded in a long legged doji today, at the middle of a broadening top pattern whose apex is 72. Note how it has turned parabolically lower. The financially driven nature of the Russell 2000's small US based companies is seen in the Dollar Rally of July 15 to August 15, which was largely bank and financial as well as housing and discretionary spending based ... IWM
Those invested in Volatility trading, $VIX, have not priced in the risk of a downturn, as Volatility fell below 21 today ... $VIX
US Treasury Bond Commentary
Treasury bonds in the futures market have reached full retracement and more; they have gone back up through a broadening top pattern ... $USB weekly
USB daily shows the rare dragonfly doji ...$USB Daily
The zero coupon bond mutual fund BTTRX shows what will likely turn out to be an abandoned baby candlestick ... BTTRX
TLT daily shows two dojis ... TLT
TLT weekly shows the pull of the Dollar Rally and the so called 'flight to safety' for the last two weeks which appear as weak dojis .... TLT
Investment Application
Take profit on EEV ... EEV Daily ... EEV Weekly
Place 1/3 of one's resources long in SKF ... SKF
Place 2/3 of one's resources in BullionVault and GoldMoney
Suggested Reading
US Greenback - The Path to Monetization By Frank Barbera, CMT
Gold Market Update by Clive Maund
Auto Industry Seeks $50B In Loans From Congress
Caveat
I am a blogger who writes on the investment demand for gold; I suggest that before anyone make an investment decision, that one consult with a licensed investment professional.
FX Street reports at 5:33 that the USD/JPY has fallen below its pivot of 109.54 to trade at 109.01; this is bearish for the US Stock market; and is bullish for oil and gold ... USD/JPY trades at 109.54
If the USD/JPY is down below 109.54 on opening, this would be bearish for the dollar driven stocks of the NASDAQ, that is, rimm, adbe, csco, ctsh, orcl, intc, aapl, mcd, hd.
The Nasdaq, QQQQ, is poised at the apex of a broadening top pattern going back to late April; note how there is nothing but thin air between its current 46.43 and 45.00 and 43.50 .... QQQQ
Apple, AAPL, shows much the same fall potential .... AAPL
Ditto for Research in Motion, RIMM .... RIMM
And the trading service and software company Recognia is relating that Research In Motion Ltd has fromed a bearish “Symmetrical Continuation Triangle” chart pattern which indicates that the stock price may fall from the close of $127.03 to the range of $103.00.
Google is on the verge of further breakdown at $474 ... GOOG
The Euro carry trade has severly unwound to an oversold position. I envision the Euro, FXE, to rise; as well as the other commodity currencies, FXA, FXS, and FXC, from their oversold condition. A correction in the Euro carry trade, which some call the yen carry trade, will call the US Dollar and stock markets lower ... Stockcharts.com shows the EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, fell lower to 1.615.
The yen carry trade began to unwind in May 2008, as can be seen in the emerging markets shares, EEM, beginning to fall steadily lower on rising risk aversion to reduced grown opportunities from the resource wealthy emerging countries such as Brazil and the industrious China. Then EEM sold off dramatically in June as the meetings of the May 19, 2008 Bank of Japan meeting were announced that inflation is an investment risk factor. Then came the sell off of oil on July 14, 2008, and the sell off of currencies on July 25, 2008, which was Peak Currencies, which really decimated the emerging markets ... EEM
EFA shows much the same as EEM ... EFA
The Russell 2000, IWM, traded in a long legged doji today, at the middle of a broadening top pattern whose apex is 72. Note how it has turned parabolically lower. The financially driven nature of the Russell 2000's small US based companies is seen in the Dollar Rally of July 15 to August 15, which was largely bank and financial as well as housing and discretionary spending based ... IWM
Those invested in Volatility trading, $VIX, have not priced in the risk of a downturn, as Volatility fell below 21 today ... $VIX
US Treasury Bond Commentary
Treasury bonds in the futures market have reached full retracement and more; they have gone back up through a broadening top pattern ... $USB weekly
USB daily shows the rare dragonfly doji ...$USB Daily
The zero coupon bond mutual fund BTTRX shows what will likely turn out to be an abandoned baby candlestick ... BTTRX
TLT daily shows two dojis ... TLT
TLT weekly shows the pull of the Dollar Rally and the so called 'flight to safety' for the last two weeks which appear as weak dojis .... TLT
Investment Application
Take profit on EEV ... EEV Daily ... EEV Weekly
Place 1/3 of one's resources long in SKF ... SKF
Place 2/3 of one's resources in BullionVault and GoldMoney
Suggested Reading
US Greenback - The Path to Monetization By Frank Barbera, CMT
Gold Market Update by Clive Maund
Auto Industry Seeks $50B In Loans From Congress
Caveat
I am a blogger who writes on the investment demand for gold; I suggest that before anyone make an investment decision, that one consult with a licensed investment professional.
WIDGETIZE