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The Resourceful Bear Blog

Gold Is The Perfect Hedge Against The Declaration Of Martial Law

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Financial market report for October 22, 2008

There was a severe disinvestment from currencies, stocks, and commodities today 10-22-2008.
There was a severe sell off of stocks worldwide with natural resource stocks and emerging markets taking the greatest part of the hit today, caused by two factors. First, the Japanese currency extended its uptrend, as carry traders borrowed at the 0.5% lending window at the Bank of Japan to go long the Yen and short the Euro. And, second the nationalization of pensions in Argentina.

Chart of the yen carry trade, that is the EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY shows the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade... FXE:FXY

Coal Producers, KOL, 19%
Metal And Mining, XME, 13%
Brazil, EWZ, 13%
Steel Producers, SLX, 13%
Energy Services, OIH, 13%
South Africa, 13%
Russia, RSX, 12%
Agriculture, 11%
Brics, EEB, 11%
South Korea, EWY, 11%
Energy Producers, XLE, 10%
China, FXI, 10%
Emerging Markets, EEM, 10%
Emerging Europe, GUR 10%
Shipping, SEA 9%
Telecom, IYZ 7%
World Shares, EFA, 7%
Real Estate, IYR 7%
Financial, IYF, 6%
US Shares, VTI 5%

Trading reflects that Kondratieff Winter has intensified.
The world entered into Kondratieff Winter on 08-08-08. This means death, not growth; and that reality is the ever increasing investment knowledge, ethic and directive, amongst the world's currency, commodity and stock traders, causing disinvestment from commodities, stocks, bonds and currencies,

Trading volume in the semiconductor and technology leader Intel, INTC, was awesomely high, driving it to its 52 week low.

From reading the Linda A. Johnson, Associated Press, in article 'Drugmakers Post Lower Third-Quarter Net Income' I believe the 'age of profitable pharmaceutical development' is over: "Drugmakers Merck & Co., Wyeth and GlaxoSmithKline PLC all posted lower profits for the third quarter on Wednesday, partly due to the intensifying generic competition weighing on the entire pharmaceutical industry. And in what it characterized as an advance strike to counteract that and other problems, Merck said it will slash about 7,200 jobs, or nearly 13 percent of its workforce, in its second major restructuring in less than three years. The companies managed to meet or slightly beat analysts' expectations, in part because of benefits from currency exchange rates. But on a day in which world markets fell, their shares all did as well: Merck's dropped $1.96, or 6.5 percent, to $28.01; Glaxo's fell $1.21, or 3.2 percent, to $36.63, and Wyeth's fell $3.72, or 10.7 percent, to $31.06. Analysts said the Wyeth drop was mainly because of news that a promising Alzheimer's drug could be delayed".

Disinvestment and lack of credit means there will not be 'a sustainable demand for agricultural equipment'. Deere, DE, fell 10% lower. The farmers of the world are going broke from lower commodity prices, and usurious loans which were used to buy seed and fertilizer last year. They simply do not have money to buy fertilizer. Potash Corporation, POT, was another high volume loss leader; it lost 9%.

The Hog, Harley Davidson, a discretionary sector leader fell 13% lower as Jessica Johnson
in Seeking Alpha reports that it has "tightened its credit distribution and started to pursue its sub-prime borrowers, who in easier times past have found it easy to borrow $20,000 hogs with no money on the table. This risky lending, which forced Harley to take a $6.3m writedown amid rising default rates and decreasing interest among buyers for its securitized loans - could foreshadow problems in other industries, according to Businessweek.com". It's as Doug Noland reports in Safehaven.com article The "Arb" Game Is Over that the prosperous 'age of securitization of lending and credit' is history.

Boeing, BA, fell 8% on the growing likelihood that it will not be producing airplanes due to a dearth of credit and decreased growth worldwide; I have placed Boeing on "death watch".

Debt ridden International Paper fell 13%.

Vice and gambling sector leader MGM fell 13%.

Wachovia Corp, WB, reported a third-quarter loss of $23.9 billion on Wednesday, a record quarterly deficit for a banking company in the global credit crisis, underscoring the challenges Wells Fargo & Co faces when it acquires the big lender.

National City and Fifth Third both posted large losses. NCC had a $729 million loss ($5.1 billion including the preferred dividend it was forced to cough up to preferred investors) and announced plans to cut 14% of its workforce. FITB lost $56 million and said it would ask for an investment from the US government.

The former 'age of investment in communication services' is definitely over as the communication stocks such as Qualcomm, QCOM, and Vodaphone were off over 10%.

Investors recognizing that the 'shopping center model' is dead, and that 'the age of dead malls' is now at hand, sold General Growth Properties heavily: GGP fell 37%.

The ongoing 3 month Yahoo Finance chart of SDK, and SFK, that is SDK, 200% short the Russell Mid Cap Growth Shares, and SFK, 200% short the Russell 1000 Growth Shares shows the tremendous gain that has come to those short the growth shares.

The ongoing 3 month Yahoo finance Chart of EEV and EFU shows the tremendous gain that has come to those short the emerging market, EEM, as well as the world shares, EFA. The ongoing Yahoo Finance chart of EEM compared to EFA shows that the emerging markets have lost sixty percent and the world shares fifty percent in the last year ... EEM and EFA

Kondratieff Winter means mass starvation and war is coming; and as a result, eventually hyperinflation, in agricultural products, RJA, and oil, USO, as conflict breaks out globally from depreciated currencies.

The formerly high yielding currencies such as the Euro, FXE, and the Australian Dollar, FXA, which brought investment rewards to the emerging markets rich in natural resources, and in production of industrial goods, are now being sold to abandon.

An unwinding yen carry trade means a sell of oil and a buy of the US Dollar: oil, USO, fell 6.5%, gold, GLD, which often trades inversely of the US dollar, 6%, and commodities 5%.

The low yielding currency, the US Dollar, $USD, became a safe haven as the Federal Reserve continues to extend assurances of dollar swaps, and other dollar supportive facilities; the US Dollar closed up at $85.62 ... $USD

The Dollar Bullish ETF, UUP, blasted higher to 26.35 ... UUP

$GOLD closed down at $728.

Demand for short term US Treasuries, SHY, continued strong to close up at 84.13 ... SHY

Long term US Treasuries, TLT, were perceived as a lifeboat of safety. Yet in reality they are a Titanic in a sea of icebergs, that is, they are a disaster waiting to happen; TLT closed up 2% at 97.05 ... TLT

The chart of the interest rate on the 10 Year US Treasury Note shows a fall lower to 36.19 ... $TNX

Is a turn higher in store for the Euro?
The Euro fell to 128.27; is this a spike down? Is a bounce higher coming? ... FXE

Other currencies fell sharply as well: the Mexico Peso, FXM, the Canadian Dollar, FXC, the British Pound, FXB, and the Indian Rupe, ICN.

The Australian Dollar, FXA, has already been sold off heavily.

The ongoing Yahoo Finance chart of FXA, compared to FXM, FXC, FXB, iCN, and FXY, communicates that Peak Currencies occurred on July 25, 2008, when the EURJPY, that is the yen carry trade, better termed the yen carry trade went into Elliott Wave 3 Decline ... FXA compared to FXM, FXC, FXB, iCN, and FXY

I do not see a turn up in the Euro; I see the chart objective for the Euro falling to 115; I see the coming of the declaration of martial law (presented below), and most all currencies falling lower; Peak US Dollar will likely come when martial law is declared.

General Commentary
Elaine Meinel Supkis in article 'End The Fed Demonstrations November 22', provides excellent commentary of today's news: "The confiscations of systems and wealth generating locations is beginning. The US has opened yet another window into the awful nothingness of the Cave of Wealth and Death. The 'rescue' amounts are now well over $2 trillion and rising weekly. The 90% losses from Lehman's collapse in the CDO markets is still not being acknowledged nor examined realistically. Bush promises MORE 'free trade' as he and other rulers push yet again for more of the Doha Round process to finish its job of killing the US industrial base. All the taps are wide open and all of this future wealth is vanishing today. Hedge funds are failing fast due to not being hedges at all but scams. The global trade collapse is confusing many mainstream commentators who would love to think that all is basically well, this is just some sort of odd glitch. It is not".

Pension funds are nationalized in Argentina
BBC News reports: Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez has signed a bill that will nationalise the country's 10 private pension funds. The move will put the government in control of almost $30bn (£18bn) of investments. Shares slumped amid fears of the move's impact and critics accused the government of trying to grab the funds.

Ms Fernandez said that Argentina needed to protect those with pensions amid falling stock prices around the world. However, expectations of the announcement sent Argentine shares 11% lower and critics said the government simply wanted its hands on the money ahead of a tough budget year".

The nationalization of pensions in Argentina is a fulfillment of bible prophecy of Revelation Chapter 6:1-2 where the first of four riders of the Apocalypse goes forth globally on a white horse in bloodless economic and political coup conquest.

The Federal Reserve will "LOAN" money markets funds as necessary with the result that Americans will be enslaved to Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson
Craig Torres and Christopher Condon in Bloomberg article 'Fed To Provide Up To $540 Billion To Aid Money Funds' relates: "The Federal Reserve will provide up to $540 billion in loans to help relieve pressure on money-market mutual funds beset by redemptions.

``Short-term debt markets have been under considerable strain in recent weeks'' as it got tougher for funds to meet withdrawal requests, the Fed said today in a statement in Washington. A Fed official said that about $500 billion has flowed since August out of prime money-market funds, which with other money-market mutual funds control $3.45 trillion."

Note that the money provided by the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, MMIFF, is a "loan"; it is not a grant. In reality because most of the money market funds have taken out insurance and many will avail themselves of this "loan", and given that nine banks have been nationalized, and the insurance company AIG has been loaned money, and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have been nationalized, this represents an "integration of money market funds" into the US Government.

The loan comes with cost other than interest, that being administrative ownership, that is control, of trillions of dollars by the Federal Reserve. The word, will and way of Ben Bernanke is now sovereign over all money market funds in the United States. Not only is the Federal Reserve the Bank of Banks which was achieved by the provision of dollar swaps, emergency lending, rate reductions, and facilities of TARP and CPFF, it is now the 'Monetary, Credit and Investment Authority' over America through its "loans" to money market funds. This effects a stunning economic and political coup that has replaced Milton Friedman neoliberal laissez faire capitalism with a state-corporate seigniorage wealth system, which controls investment and lending. Seigniorage means top dog bank note system; and comes from the Scottish and Bank of England financial system which was devised to maintain the value of currency as describe in Elaine Meinel Supkis Money Matters Blog article 'The History of Seigniorage Wealth'.

Default on the loan, which is inevitable, means that the wealth of the money market accounts will be not only rented out to but owned by the Federal Reserve

Americans are enslaved, yes made slaves to the credit default swaps and other derivatives at AIG and Lehman Brothers, the housing debt of nationalized Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the highly leveraged CDO debt of the TARP facility, and the commercial paper debt of CPFF.

And now they are made slaves to pay back the money market fund loans. Elaine Meinel Supkis in Financial Black Holes relates: "Modern capitalist banking systems create increasing DEBT and not increasing wealth!" And she relates, "The desire is for all systems to be over 100% in debt!"

Americans are now totally sold out: their task masters are Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson their banking stakeholders.

Going back to Ms. Supkis' current article 'End The Fed Demonstrations November 22', she relates: "The rabbit is out of the magician's hat. The cat is out of the bag. Even the dimmest wits in America are figuring out two things: the bankers are really socialists but are exclusionary socialists. Namely, they want money to be created and handed to them, not to us. They want to use us as collateral. Ask any banker if money can be lent at cheap with no collateral. They will laugh maliciously.

No, to get those cute 1% loans, you need to put up some collateral. And the true collateral here is the US taxpayers and everything they own. Note the top story. All our collective and individual wealth can be suddenly seized. Since the bankers and their buddies own our political system, they will get whatever they need.

The other fact the US public has become dimly aware is, they will NOT be bailed out with this magic money. They will have to pay a price and a steep price. If they ARE bailed out with funny money, this will be extracted in less than five years just like the Bush tax cuts, via inflation of food, fuel and other necessities.

Since there is a lot of propaganda from kindergarden on up poured into brains to convince US citizens that we are NOT an empire, it is hard for voters to understand the profound loss of sovereignty and international muscle the US has suffered during this last 8 years of wild misspending, wild debt accumulation and wild military expansionism."

The bailouts so far total $2.25 Trillion
Mark Landler and Eric Dash Published in October 15, 2008, International Herald Tribune article Drama - And Conflict - Behind The $250 Billion Banking Deal report that the bail outs so far come in at $2.25 trillion!

The bailouts will fail to resolve global financial place instability; the lending gridlock will continue, and liquidity will continue to evaporate from the system. The result will be a world wide financial system breakdown
As stated above, the world entered into Kondratieff Winter on 08-08-08. This means death, not growth; and that reality is the ever increasing investment knowledge, ethic and directive, amongst the world's currency, commodity and stock traders, causing disinvestment from commodities, stocks, bonds and currencies.

And the awareness of risk of investment loss increased on September 11, 2008, that is 9-11-2008, there was a cardiac arrest in lending when the banks discovered they could not sell stock to raise capital. Trust between lender and debtor completely broke down, and a lending gridlock, that is, a credit gridlock ensued, and the US Stock markets and the world stock markets fell lower on an unwinding yen carry trade which took commodities lower, and the US Dollar higher.

The lack of trust increased even further as the SEC has thrown the fair value rule, and the accountants have withdrawn the mark-to-market standard of FASB 157, and replaced it with mark-to-fantasy assumptions of management.

Without trust the worldwide financial system can only breakdown.

The inevitable financial collapse when it does occur will be a fulfillment of bible prophecy of Revelation 13:1-4

Evidence suggests that there will be a declaration of martial law in response to the coming financial system breakdown
Sen. Warner Supports Domestic Use of Military by David Swanson of GlobalResearch.ca

Top International Military Officials Meet In Adirondacks

The Soon Coming Martial Law Will Be Managed By NORTHCOM'S JTF-CS

How Near Is Martial Law

Bush Paves The Way For Martial Law

Army Combat Team To Train For Homeland Scenarios Under NorthCom

NORTHCOM Gives Approval For Canadian Armed Forces To Provide Gustav Disaster Relief Services In Louisiana

Soon Coming Enforcement Of The Security and Prosperity Partnership Places Ones Investments At Risk

Those not invested in gold, and not having personal control over that investment, will loose relatively a lot compared to gold, when martial law is declared.
The risk of loss of investment principle is at the highest level ever, despite assurances from central banks globally, that monies in banks and money market funds is guaranteed.

One may not have full and immediate access to one's money when martial law is declared; and the value of all currencies relative to gold is likely to fall at that time.

The best time to buy gold is now, despite the likelihood that it will continue to fall lower as oil and the Euro fall and the US Dollar rises.

If one has wealth, it is best to put it far, far away from the current financial system, safe and sound in a guarded vault, like BullionVault and GoldMoney, with an account personally at streetTracks Gold Trust, and in physical possession of gold coins.

The chart of gold relative to stocks, GLD:VTI, holding steady above 1.40 provides clear, cogent and convincing evidence of an investment demand for gold, as well as a strong reason for physical owernship of gold rather than holding "money" in banks or money market accounts.

Synthetic CDO Cuts Show $1 Trillion Corporate-Debt Bets To Be Toxic - Banks, REITS, And Corporations Should Record Their Losses Riverside County Real Estate Prices Are Down Thirty Nine Percent