Friday, 13. January 2006, 00:02:40
Regime Change In Iran?
Last week Iran removed the International Atomic Energy Agency's seals from it's nuclear research facilities and announced it is resuming it's uranium enrichment program.
Today, U.S. Secretary Condoleezza Rice in a press briefing warned Iran that, in light of President Ahmadi-Nejad's outrageous statements regarding Israel, we won't stand for this defiance of the international community.
Quick predict:
Before the UN Security Council finishes hemmin' and hawin' over this crises Israel will take Iran's nuclear facilities out with a couple of jet fighter launched missiles.
Transcript of Secretary Rice's briefing:
Secretary Condoleezza Rice
Washington, DC
January 12, 2006
(1:00 p.m. EST)
SECRETARY RICE: Good afternoon. I have a statement and then I'll be happy to
take some questions.
The United States fully supports the decision announced today by the Foreign
Ministers of the United Kingdom, France and Germany and by EU Council
Secretariat President Solana. We agree that the Iranian regime's defiant
resumption of uranium enrichment work leaves the EU with no choice but to
request an emergency meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors. That meeting would
be to report Iran's noncompliance with its safeguards obligations to the UN
Security Council.
We also agree that the removal of seals by the Iranian Government, in defiance
of numerous IAEA Board resolutions, demonstrates that it has chosen
confrontation with the international community over cooperation and
negotiation. As the EU-3 and EU have declared, these provocative actions by the
Iranian regime have shattered the basis for negotiation.
We join the European Union and many other members of the international
community in condemning the Iranian Government's deliberate escalation of this
issue. There is simply no peaceful rationale for the Iranian regime to resume
uranium enrichment. We're gravely concerned by Iran's long history of hiding
sensitive nuclear activities from the IAEA, in violation of its obligations,
its refusal to cooperate with the IAEA's investigation, its rejection of
diplomatic initiatives offered by the EU and Russia and now its dangerous
defiance of the entire international community.
The Iranian regime's actions have only made worse the "confidence deficit" that
IAEA Director General Mr. ElBaradei has previously described. As a result, the
IAEA Board of Governors must go forward with a report to the UN Security
Council, so that the Council can add its weight in support of the ongoing IAEA
investigation.
The Council should call for the Iranian regime to step away from its nuclear
weapons ambitions. The United States will encourage the Security Council to
achieve this end. We will continue to consult closely with the EU-3 and the EU,
with Russia, China and many other members of the international community in the
coming days and weeks, as this new diplomatic phase begins and proceeds.
We continue to encourage a peaceful diplomatic solution to this issue, which
spares the world from the threat posed by a nuclear armed Iran and which
benefits the Iranian people with the possibility of renewed relations and
integration with the international community.
Now, I'm happy to take your questions. Anne.
QUESTION: Madame Secretary, as you alluded to, there's a pretty loud
international chorus for going to the Security Council. Here's a yes or no for
you: once there, are you confident -- do you have assurances that you have the
votes for the Security Council to impose sanctions or take some other
meaningful action?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, the first step is to refer this matter to the Security
Council and I think there will be an extraordinary meeting and I believe that
that step will be taken. There are a variety of options, a variety of tools at
the disposal of the international community, once it has been referred to the
Security Council. And I think that we will, at a time of our choosing in the
international system, begin to actually apply those various means. But I think
the first thing to focus on today is the extraordinary outcry from the
international system for Iran's defiance, a very strong course of support for
further action by the international system. And I think beyond that, we will
continue to consult.
Saul.
QUESTION: Before you get to the Security Council, how much support do you have
from Russia and China? Are they willing to vote yes to refer Iran to the
Security Council?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, I'm not going to speak for other countries, but I would
just note that there have been many representations to the Iranian Government
prior to their taking this action, including representations by other
governments you mentioned, that they should not take such an action in defiance
of the international community. There have also been statements since the
Iranians broke the seals from all of these countries, saying to them that this
was a very serious matter. I would note, even today, the Foreign Minister of
Russia saying that this kind of activity -- and I'm paraphrasing here -- could
cost Iran Moscow's support.
And so, I think it's very clear that everybody believes that a very important
threshold has been crossed here, but I don't want to speak for other countries.
That's what consultation is for.
Barbara.
QUESTION: How do you go about punishing the Iranian regime without punishing
the Iranian people? Can you give us some sense of the options that you are
thinking about that perhaps could be targeted in a way that they would send the
message you want to send?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, it's a very important question, Barbara, and I don't want
to try to get into specifics, but I do want to note that we consider what has
happened to be at the fault of the Iranian regime. And indeed, the government
of President Ahmadi-Nejad has done nothing but confront the international
system ever since he came into power, confront the international system in
their behavior on the nuclear issue, confront the international system with
outrageous statements that I don't think have been made in polite company in
many, many, many years.
And so, this is about the Iranian regime and it is the Iranian regime that is
isolating Iran and I think you make a good point. Nobody wants to see the
Iranian people, for whom we have enormous respect -- it's a great culture, it's
a great people that should be on the road to modernization and integration into
the international system. We don't want to see those people isolated.
I have said before that I hope that there will be an opportunity for Iranian
students to continue to be welcomed in places. I hope that there will be
opportunity for Iranian musicians who, if reports are right, can no longer play
Beethoven in Tehran, to be outside of Tehran. I would hope that it would be
possible for Iranian athletes to be welcomed in places, because this should not
be about the Iranian people and I think we will have to look hard at how a
strong message is sent that this is really the Iranian regime that is digging
into isolation. The Iranian people, frankly, deserve better.
Yes.
QUESTION: Madam Secretary, with the Palestinian election coming up on January
25th and obviously, a new election in Israel late in March, do you think that
Iran is doing this at this time to influence both elections in a negative way?
And of course, they've been possibly working along with the Syrians that you've
condemned in the last half-day.
SECRETARY RICE: Well, there is no doubt that there are a couple of states in
the Middle East that are outside of the direction that the Middle East is
generally going, which is a direction toward reform, which is a direction
towards support of a resolution between the Palestinians and the Israelis that
would be peaceful and, therefore, allowing for the establishment of a
Palestinian state. And Syria and Iran are outside that consensus.
If you look at Iran's support for terrorist organizations, including Hezbollah,
but also Palestinian rejectionists, if you look at the support that Syria has
given to try and destabilize and intimidate Lebanese, then obviously, these
states have that in common. Now, I can't judge the motives of the Iranian
regime in picking this particular time to pick a fight with the international
community. They've been on this path for some time.
I'd go back to March of last year, when our -- yes, of last year, when the
United States made the decision to try and give new impetus to the EU-3
negotiations by agreeing, for instance, that the Iranians should be allowed to
apply for WTO membership, for removing our objections to that. I talked about
potentially spare parts for Iranian aircraft. This was a time when Iran, I
think, could see the international community coming together around the
strategy that, while recognizing that this was not an issue about their rights
to peaceful nuclear energy, would have given them access to peaceful nuclear
energy.
We have been on a course, ever since then, where they've not taken repeated
opportunities to take the world up on that, so I can't speak to the timing, but
I'll say they've been on this course for a good time.
Andrea.
QUESTION: Madam Secretary, what is your analysis of why Iran has taken this
step? Most people believe that this is not just its very controversial leader,
that this is a decision taken by the Ayatollahs as well. So, Iran seems united,
as a government, in taking a step that has alienated the rest of the world. And
its people seem to be supporting this. If this is for domestic political
consumption, what is your analysis of why Iran is moving in this direction? And
also, isn't --aren't economic sanctions a very blunt instrument (inaudible) on
an oil producer that will also affect the global market and the United States,
the consumers?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, we are not yet at the point to talk about specific
measures that might be taken once we're in the Security Council. There will be
a menu of possibilities, given that once you're in the Security Council the
Security Council brings certain authority to an issue like this that the IAEA
can not have on its own. So, I think we'll see.
But Andrea, it's entirely possible that the Iranian regime has miscalculated,
that they somehow believed that the international community would not unite. I
know that there were many expressions of surprise by the Iranian regime on --
at the November 24th vote, when I think it was Venezuela that voted with them.
And they were apparently surprised by that and so, perhaps it's just a regime
that has miscalculated, that believes that the world will not react in the way
that it is indeed reacting. And I would hope that now seeing the very powerful
reaction of the international community that Iran would take a step back and
look at the isolation that it is about to experience.
As to the Iranian people, the Iranian people -- they can't speak for
themselves. This is not a government that is much given to dissent by its
people. In fact, it's a government that's gone backwards in those terms over
the last several years, a regime that's gone backward. And you do have an
unelected few, whom you've mentioned, the Guardian Council and the mullahs, who
of course are not connected to the people at all in any process.
So, I don't know how to assess the view of the Iranian people. I do know that
everyone is saying that Iran has every right and expectation to be a great
technological power, to be a power where science can take place. The Russians'
joint venture would have offered Iran a part in an activity concerning nuclear
power, but offshore, and without access to technologies that are -- have
proliferation risk. So, people were trying, and by the way, if you look back at
what the EU-3 -- the package that the EU-3 was offering, people were trying to
offer Iran a way to begin to actually realize its potential in the
international system.
Now, obviously we have a lot of problems with Iran that are not related to the
nuclear issue: the terrorism, the human rights and diplomacy and democracy
issues. But what we don't have is a lack of understanding that the Iranian
people don't have the capability to speak in their own voice. We understand
that the Iranian people deserve better than they've got.
QUESTION: Madame Secretary, with the language that you're using here today and
that we've heard in this crescendo to the Security Council, people are starting
to make comparisons about how it sounded as we led up into the Iraq war. Is
that a comparison that you would find appropriate for anyone, including the
Iranians, to observe?
SECRETARY RICE: I think it's always a mistake to reason by analogy. The
situations are, of course, very different. The Security Council is a very
important step because it brings a certain weight to the IAEA requirements that
is currently not there. We would hope that what this will -- we will be able to
do is to get the answers that the Iranians need to give to the IAEA. We would
hope to get -- to use the Security Council to get clarification on some of the
issues that the Iranians have refused to answer to this point.
So, I would just want to underscore that this is not an issue of the end of
diplomacy. I have heard some people say that diplomacy has failed. Well, this
particular phase with a specific set of negotiations has not succeeded, but we
now enter a new phase in diplomacy and as we prepare to try and achieve a
referral, our diplomatic efforts have been quite intense. On Monday, Under
Secretary Burns will go to London for a Political Directors meeting. Under
Secretary Joseph is on his way -- will be on his way to Vienna to have
consultations at the IAEA, but also then onto other capitals. We've gone into
major capitals today to talk about the seriousness of this and the importance
of a referral and I've been constantly on the telephone. So, we're entering a
new phase of diplomacy, but it is still diplomacy and we believe that if the
international community stays united, it has a chance to work.
Peter.
QUESTION: Yes, Madame Secretary, following up on that, is the EU-3 negotiating
process now effectively dead? And if it does go to the Security Council, is
there a prospect of reviving the same package and same process there if the
Iranians want to (inaudible)?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, this is a question that I think you would have to put to
the EU. I read some of the comments that were made in the press conference
today. One, I think it was the German Foreign Minister who said it had reached
a dead-end. I think that the statement essentially says the basis for
negotiation is no longer there, because what the Iranians did was to
unilaterally destroy the basis on which the negotiations were taking place,
which was that there was going to be a moratorium on these activities, it would
be given time to work through these issues, to try to find a solution and they
unilaterally -- basically blew up the negotiations. So, it's hard to see what
happens in that regard, but clearly, if Iran wants to return to a course where
it suspends these activities, stops threatening the world with its defiance,
starts answering the questions of the IAEA -- and there are a lot of very
important questions in the IAEA, then I suppose that other courses are open.
But so far, the Iranians have shown no inclination to do any of that.
QUESTION: Madame Secretary, what other tracks are you pursuing to stop Iran
from developing nuclear development or capability, such as nonproliferation
measures, and how much of your concern about Iran's moves right now are in
relation to the President's comments about Israel and wiping Israel off the map
and --
SECRETARY RICE: Well, first of all, I think that the Iranians should not be
confused -- and any of the Iranians, most especially, the President of Iran,
should not be confused that his threats about wiping Israel off the map have
convinced anybody that they ought to have access to this technology. I mean, in
fact, he certainly helped to seal the view that this is a very dangerous power.
But of course, there are many deterrents to Iran trying to carry out any kind
of activity against its neighbors or against others in the region and I think
that they're probably not confused on that point either. But quite clearly, the
world is going to have to pursue this course, which is to try and get
appropriate answers. I would hope that there would be greater cooperation to
work through things like the Proliferation Security Initiative, to deny, if it
should be the case, the transfer of technologies that might be helpful in this
regard.
The Iranians have a long history, you know. They were dealing, at one point,
with A.Q. Khan. Well, A.Q. Khan was not in the business of peaceful nuclear
energy. And so, I think everybody will want to watch for those sorts of issues,
so of course, there are other methods, but the main arena is to try and deal
with Iran in a way that it will understand its obligations.
QUESTION: Thank you, Madame Secretary. Can you tell us if there's anything the
U.S. can do to increase China's willingness to cooperate? I mean, China has a
voracious appetite for oil and they seem to be unlikely to go along with
anything that would be near sanctions on Iran's oil, which is something like 2
million barrels a day. I mean --
SECRETARY RICE: Well, again, we're not yet at the stage of discussing specific
things that might happen in the Security Council. I think the first thing is to
enhance the international coalition that is prepared to hold Iran to account by
taking them to the Security Council. I think that that will happen. I will be
talking with my Chinese counterpart, I think, very shortly to talk about this.
But China, in its own way, has made clear to Iran that its activities are
deeply troubling and I don't think it serves anybody's interest to have a
nuclear-armed Iran. And the reason that people are exercised today, as Iran
has, in a defiant way, begun these enrichment activities again, is that this
could lead to the technologies that lead to a nuclear weapon. And since nobody
trusts Iran's protestations that this would be a peaceful program, people are
duly alarmed.
Yes.
QUESTION: Madame Secretary, thank you. First of all, Happy New Year.
SECRETARY RICE: Thank you.
QUESTION: This is the first time that I may have come across a leader of a
country making such negative and weird statements against another country and
also, many calls him a madman in Iran and he doesn't care about his people, he
doesn't care about international community, and he is saying that "I will do
whatever I have to do and nobody can stop me."
My question is, Madame Secretary, that -- how do you compare him with another
madman who is in jail and on trial, Saddam Hussein, and also, do you see any
China link with this nuclear weapons with Iran, Madame?
SECRETARY RICE: A China link?
QUESTION: Link, yeah.
SECRETARY RICE: Well, the Iranian activities have been and are being
investigated thoroughly by the IAEA and I think they will certainly go to every
corner to try and determine where Iran may be getting -- may have gotten its
assistance. We do know that there was an A.Q. Khan link at one point.
I'm not going to try to compare people who behave in the way that each of these
people has behaved. They have their own -- each of them has their own
qualities, let me put it that way. But Ahmadi-Nejad is currently the sitting
president of an important state in the Gulf and on the edge of the Middle East
and it is extraordinary that he would say some of the things that he has said.
The one thing that we do know, it has done nothing but increase Iran's
isolation every time he's opened his mouth. And so, I don't think he is having
a positive effect for the Iranian nation and he's not having a positive effect
for the Iranian people.
One final question, yeah.
QUESTION: Madame Secretary, you said there are many deterrents to Iran trying
to carry out any activity against its neighbors or in the region, but can you
tell us what kind of a deterrent Iran's extraordinary influence in Iraq is to
the U.S. right now or how that might limit our options?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, we are taking Iraq on its own terms. We understand that
Iraq and Iran are neighbors and that they should have good relations. And you
would hope that this would be an Iran that could pursue relations that were
transparent and that were neighborly relations. There's a long history there,
though, and I don't see any evidence that the Iraqis, having thrown off the
yolk of Saddam Hussein, particularly want to put on the yolk of Iranian
mullahs.
It is obviously the case that there are a lot of people who are now part of the
governing structure of Iraq who, during the exile days, spent time in Iran,
have contacts with Iranians. But I believe you're looking at Iraqi patriots who
want a particular future for Iraq and certainly, not one in which you have a
Guardian Council -- an unelected Guardian Council that is making, as far as we
can tell, most of the important decisions for a population that then has no
say. That's not the course that Iraq is on.
I might note that the specter of Iraqis in exile in Iran -- displaced people in
Iran voting for a free election in Iraq from the territory of Iran and the
specter of Afghans earlier than that voting from the territory of Iran for free
elections in Afghanistan, there's a deep irony in that, that Iranians have got
to take notice of. And the neighborhood is changing; it's changing quite
dramatically. And while there are a couple of states, among them, Syria and
Iran, that seem to want to engage in pushing toward some kind of Thermidor,
it's not going to happen.
The course of development in the Middle East is toward more openness, not less,
toward more democracy, not less, toward a realization that Islam and democracy
can exist in the same circumstances. And that, in the final analysis, has got
to be threatening to an Iranian regime that relies on coercion and relies on
control of its population, not on the consent of its population.
Thanks very much.
What course of action should the US take? Sit back and do nothing? Urge Israel to take action? Let the UN handle things? Invade Iran? Let us know what you think.
Happy Friday the 13th,
Ron
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